Tallies - Latest News

McSpud

Dan Boyle (Green) eliminated in Cork South Central.
Looks like Labour gain from FF on the way...

skearon

Wicklow Count 7 - deBurca Eliminated

Behan, Joe FF 10892
Brady, John SF 0
Cawley, Evelyn OTH 0
deBurca GP 13 7144
Doran, Pat OTH 0
Doyle, Andrew FG 19 8250
Fitzgerald, Pat FF 144 7271
Kelly, Nicky LAB 0
McKenna, Carmel OTH 0
McManus, Liz LAB 29 9678
Newell, Norman OTH 0
O'Siochain, Donal PD 0
Roche, Dick FF -275 10821
Tallon, Jim OTH 0
Timmins, Billy FG 70 9674
Non Transferable 0

Villain

White gets 2400, Phelan 1250 amd Nolan will get 700. When nolan's surplus of 570 is divided they will go towards White so it looks like she has it.

Villain

Well I be damned McGrath came back and got the seat Ivor won't be getting any free paint jobs for a while

Villain

I called it right Mary White is in for Green in Carlow

McSpud

Dublin Central
Joe Costello (Labour) elected past the quota.
Brady (FF) elected without reaching the quota after a meer 900 1st preference voters

pjbrady1

Looks like John Carty will get eliminated soon. But O'Mahoney is in Ballaghadereen as well.
Chambers gave Carty/Calleary 50% of his transfers.
So O'Mahoney might ruin Callearys trasnfer from Carty.
Big outside chance for Mulherrin though, as Calleary should close that quota gap further on Cowleys transfer.
Looks a tight one though.

Def looks like Bev and JohnO though.

BMH

No change after the latest Dublin South Central count, Róisín Healy eliminated.

BMH

7th count in Galway West - distributing Sean Kyne's votes.
Michael D leading with 7k, with Fahy, McCormack and Grealish at ~6k

BMH

10th Count in Galway-West, Michael D in, McCormack, Fahy and the PD guy will most likely follow.

yomchi

O'Snodaigh beats byrne by 68 votes in Dublin South Central

redspider

This is the overall result bar some recounts/challenges, I understand:

Party	2002*	2007	Change
FF	79	78	-1
FG	32	51	+19
Lab	21	20	-1
GP	6	6	 0
SF	5	4	-1
PD	8	2	-6
Oth	15	5	-10

*the outgoing sitiation at the end of the 29th Dail (there were two by-elections).

As can be seen, a huge swing back to FG, picking off many of the seats that the smaller parties had gained back in 2002, most notably the PD's who have their worst result in their history (I wonder what Des O'Malley thinks), and many Independents.

All the other parties held their position, including FF (who didnt lose seats as many had expected), Labour, Green's, SF (all of whom didnt gain).

Here are the seat totals from the following combinations:

FF+PD 80
FF+PD+2Ind 82
FF+GP 84
FF+GP+2Ind 86

FG+Lab+GP 77
FG+Lab+GP+SF 81
FG+Lab+GP+SF+2Ind 83


Its not clear who can form a stable government, but a wide rainbow that includes SF (or maybe an abstaining SF?) is perhaps possible ir Rory O'Hanlon would stay on as Ceann Comhairle.

I'd say Bertie is miffed that the PD's failed so miserably. Just 300 or so more votes may have seen McDowell in and one other would have seen them over the line with some independents such as Healy-Rae and Beverly Flynn in terms of forming a government.

Who knows, maybe with the addition of Tony Gregory and another independent, this would bring this possible coalition up to 84 and a slim majority.

Its fairly even ......

Redspider

redspider

Interesting to compare the results of 2007 to 1997:

Party	1997	2007	diff
FF	77	78	1
FG	54	51	-3
Lab	21	20	-1
GP	2	6	4
SF	1	4	3
PD	4	2	-2
Oth	7	5	-2

Not much change for FF.
FG didnt quite claw back what they lost in 2002
Labour + DL, more or less the same. No breakthrough in 3 elections, so they will be taking stock of that. They are probably winning voters and losing some.

The Green's clearly gaining going from 2 to 6.
SF also, going from 1 to 4.
The PD's, at their lowest.
Other's, more or less the same, although when you consider that the Blaney 'franchise' is now back in the FF fold, the changes are actually:
FF 0 (no change)
Oth -3

Redspider