Tallies - Latest News

Colonel Sanders

Pal wrote:

gormley v mcdowell
one of them is gone

now we'll really see who won the rumble in ranelagh!!!!

murphaph

Pal wrote:

IMHO Brian Lenihan is the outstanding candidate in Dublin West by a country mile

I hadn't noticed in all the traffic and overcrowded trains and 2 hour bus journeys to town tbh.

Pal

whatever. I will accept your inference that the majority don't know best.

nesf

Pal wrote:

gormley v mcdowell
one of them is gone

Should be entertaining, again.

beanyb

Here's hoping it's McDowell. I cant imagine him having a particularly high rate of transfers. Gormley should get a good number from Creighton, Quinn and all those independents.

Obviously, I could easily be wrong though!

Colonel Sanders

Pal wrote:

whatever. I will accept your inference that the majority don't know best.

I feel they don't know best. John Browne will top the poll in wexford despite barely bothering to campaign. Bertie will top the poll in Dublin Central despite all the sleaze allegations flying around. The elctorate are not rational.

Marshy

Colonel Sanders wrote:

now we'll really see who won the rumble in ranelagh!!!!

Seems as if McDowell will get home narrowly

Dublin South:

12:35 Dublin South, 97.28% Boxes Open,

FF 42%,
FG 28%,
LAB 11%,
PD 7%,
GP 11%,
SF 3%,
IND 0%,

Prediction 2FF, 1GP, 1FG

Again, I'm a bit confused. Mycandidate.ie, electionsireland.org and ireland.com all have this as a 5 seater, so are RTE just not calling the final seat or have they fecked up?

Wino82

Marshy wrote:

Seems as if McDowell will get home narrowly

I really hope you're wrong

Occidental

jjbrien wrote:

This looks god for FG but very bad for Willy Penrose this could be a massive blow to the Labour party. The boxes from Mullingar and North Westmeath must not have been opened as he should get a massive vote from there.

That tally is from Keenagh and cover Longford voting only. From memory they were talking about Kelly on 7100+ and Bannon on 6800+. O'Rourke is supposed to be well ahead of McFadden in Athlone. Penrose is still expected to be first elected.

jjbrien

Occidental wrote:

That tally is from Keenagh and cover Longford voting only. From memory they were talking about Kelly on 7100+ and Bannon on 6800+. O'Rourke is supposed to be well ahead of McFadden in Athlone. Penrose is still expected to be first elected.

Whats the numbers for O'Rourke looking like? Cassidy is gone then thank god.

Marshy

Wino82 wrote:

I really hope you're wrong

I hope I'm wrong too. I'm only going on charlie bird though.

DMC

Kildare North

FF Brady 25%
Lab Stagg 17.5%
FF Fitzpatrick 14.6%
FG Durkan 11.75%
IND Murphy 11.46%

Occidental

jjbrien wrote:

Whats the numbers for O'Rourke looking like? Cassidy is gone then thank god.

They were still in the 2 or 3k area, but she was already 30-40% ahead. It was only based on early boxes.

DMC

Louth 100% Tally

Ahern 18.2%
Morgan 15.1%
Kirk 18.45%
O'Dowd 15.2%
McGuinness 9.3%

giddyup

The census indicated that Dub-West should now be a 4 seater so the fact that it's not is a nonsense. We have 4 decent candidates imho - the 3 sitting are all regarded as good performers and Varadkar appears to be reasonably on the ball. I bumped Joe Higgins down to 4 this time as someone had to go and I wanted to see Varadkar get a chance.

While I accept that Brian Lenihan has the budget he did do a comparatively good job of keeping the comms coming over the last few years and when we were hit by a mini-tornado a couple of years back he was the only politician who bothered his arse to come up and show his face and lend some support. Maybe I'm a sucker but simple things like that make a difference.

DMC

Occidental wrote:

They were still in the 2 or 3k area, but she was already 30-40% ahead. It was only based on early boxes.

No Eastern Westmeath boxes open yet.

Time Magazine

Marshy wrote:

Seems as if McDowell will get home narrowly

It's very, very tight.

Gormless is 250 votes up at the moment and picked up 40% of SF's transfers in 2002. Doolan has 1500 votes, so there's at least another 500 there for him, putting him 750 up. He's also more likely to pick up Hearne's, Quinn's and Creighton's transfers. It depends how FF's transfers will go.

DMC

Ibid wrote:

It's very, very tight.

Gormless is 250 votes up at the moment and picked up 40% of SF's transfers in 2002. Doolan has 1500 votes, so there's at least another 500 there for him, putting him 750 up. He's also more likely to pick up Hearne's, Quinn's and Creighton's transfers. It depends how FF's transfers will go.

Gormley should squeak it.

Sully

Waterford (Update as of 1PM - nearly finished opening all boxes):

21.9% Martin Cullen (FF) - 1st Count Election most likely

16.42% John Deasy (FG)

11.98% Ollie Wilkinson (FF)

10.8% Brian O'Shea (LABOUR)

10.8% Brendan Kennealy (FF)

9.7% Paudie Coffey (FG)

6.9% David Cullanane (SF)

3.3% John Halligan (Workers Party)

2.7% Jim Darcy (FG)

2.5% Brendan McAnn (Greens)

1.7% Mary Roche (Ind)

Others have to little to mention.

skearon

OK folks the 100% Tally from Wicklow

Behan, Joe 9441 14.60%
Brady, John 3201 4.95%
Cawley, Evelyn 2184 3.38%
deBurca 4820 7.45%
Doran, Pat 2815 4.35%
Doyle, Andrew 6927 10.71%
Fitzgerald, Pat 5021 7.76%
Kelly, Nicky 3849 5.95%
McKenna, Carmel 364 0.56%
McManus, Liz 6708 10.37%
Newell, Norman 81 0.13%
O'Siochain, Donal 893 1.38%
Roche, Dick 10207 15.78%
Tallon, Jim 116 0.18%
Timmins, Billy 8040 12.43%

Time Magazine

DMC wrote:

Gormley should squeak it.

That's my reading of it, too.

It's being reported on politics.ie that McDowell needs 86% of O'Callaghan's transfers and that ain't gonna happen.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

_blank_

That is tight alright.

Will be worth watching that one.

Occidental

DMC wrote:

No Eastern Westmeath boxes open yet.

From what I've heard on local radio, there's no figures out of Mullingar yet

arctictree

skearon wrote:

OK folks the 100% Tally from Wicklow

Behan, Joe 9441 14.60%
Brady, John 3201 4.95%
Cawley, Evelyn 2184 3.38%
deBurca 4820 7.45%
Doran, Pat 2815 4.35%
Doyle, Andrew 6927 10.71%
Fitzgerald, Pat 5021 7.76%
Kelly, Nicky 3849 5.95%
McKenna, Carmel 364 0.56%
McManus, Liz 6708 10.37%
Newell, Norman 81 0.13%
O'Siochain, Donal 893 1.38%
Roche, Dick 10207 15.78%
Tallon, Jim 116 0.18%
Timmins, Billy 8040 12.43%

So it looks like Roche, Behan, Timmins, Doyle and McManus

DeBurca and Fitzgerald seem to be just too far behind....

Marshy

Theres talk of fine girl getting 3 seats in mayo. FF are struggling to get the other 2.

horseflesh

Wino82 wrote:

I really hope you're wrong

I hope he's right!

lucernarian

Cork South-Central looks like trench warfare, and Dublin Southeast is one to watch aswell.

I heard there on Radio 1 that Seamus Kirk and Dermot Ahern have nearly split their votes perfectly at 18.5% and 18.2% respectively. Good vote management there. Fergus O'Dowd and Arthur Morgan also look safe, though Morgan will almost definetely get the last seat.

TheBlackThing

Kenny FG 14650
Ring FG 11474
Colleary FF 7125
Cooper-Flynn Ind 6810
O Mahoney FG 6748
Carty FF 5875
Mulherin FG 5450
Chambers FF 4340
Crowley Ind 3385

Quota expected to be approx 11800