What's Happened to Sinn Fein!!!

axer

I don't think SF have done bad out of this election considering the beating other small parties got. I think Gerry Adams was a disgrace on the debate which im sure effected the vote. He must have been distracted by what was going on up north as I have never heard him talking so cluelessly before. I believe SF will do alot better in the next election due to the north being (hopefully) sorted out and being able to concentrate on the south.

SF are up 0.3% which is still a positive for the party - Up Yours McDougal!!!

Bring on the FF-GP coalition!

philstar

Gob&#225 wrote: »

Hmmmm, I see.......But........in the North of this country, the secret of getting the economy up and running, and lots of nice inward investment was to, ahem, get that "bunch of bank robbers, thugs, murderers, extreme nationalist fascists........into power" with the DUP. Funny, that:rolleyes:

yes ..the sheer hypocrisy of it...we expect the Unionist community (many of them victims of IRA violence) to go into goverment with them -SF.

And yet down here (and rightly so) we won't touch them with a barge pole.

mike65

Completely different political environment - in NI they two largest parties were given no choice in the matter. Here we have a choice.

Mike.

luckat

I couldn't bear to vote for Sinn Fein with the unburied bodies of the 'disappeared' still out there. And the party seems to have no policies, apart from a 32-county Republic.

They talk about having a strong presence in working-class constituencies, but do they? In a decade and a half of living in a Dublin inner city area, the only time I heard Sinn Fein mentioned was when people wanted to drive out drug dealers, in which case they called in the boys.

If they wanted jobs for the area or help with dealing with social welfare or the water pipes fixed or any of the other requirements of hungry people, they didn't go to their local SF office.

yomchi

Sean Crowe should go independent next time if SF don't learn from the mistakes of this election

Sean Crowe independant? there's a thought :eek: You hardly think he got himself elected in 2002?

I think its time to put things into context here for SF. The party have only being contesting elections seriously since 1997. After 1981 it was obvious the party had some electoral strategists and it was only then that the long thought out Adams initiatives began to look anyway useful. In 1997 the party made their initial break through electing Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin to Leinster House. Thats a mere 10 years ago. The party itself at the time was in transistion as it attempted to come in from the cold of the war the IRA was engaged in. At that time SF was seen as radical and that whiff of cordite off the likes of Adams, Mcguiness etc appealed to many. With the Peace Process gearing up and taking hold 2002 saw them build on that increase in support and returned 5 TD's. The programme like 'Provos' by Peter Taylor did their image good. Adams was a relatively new face to Irish media after the lifting section 31, and most importantly the party had a phenomenal activist base and organisers - especially in Dublin where the vast majority of the activists were dedicated radical Republicans.

So whats changed?
A few things really, most importantly in my opinion - the peace process has taken it toll on the activist base. In an effort to become more mainstream the party has moved away from certain stances and policies most importantly Policing and the view that it will do anything to get into power in the North, the July 28th statement from the IRA and the impression of an arms 'hand-over' rocked a very stable and solid activist base. At this point some activists were already on the verge of leaving, mainly because of the perceived capitulation to the British govt. Throw into this, the perceived pussy footing around with George Bush (vast vast majority of SF activists are anti Bush/anti war) and photo ops with the man in the white house further more alienated the already shaky left base.

Then came Policing, and for some that was the straw that broke the camels back. There was a parting of the ways - especially in Dublin, where the parties heart exited. Some very capable people, including peope who were instrumental in the previous 1999 locals, 2002 GE increase in votes and the people responsible for electing Mary Lou as an MEP were gone.

So SF went into this election a weaker structured party than it would have done previously - imo. The people in charge now who are capable are only new to the scene. The perfect example being Nicky Keogh heading out and Mary Lou heading in, the same example can be replicated at an organisation level.
Add into that, the obvious fact that all the smaller parties were squeezed by the battle of the big guns and there you have it - SF rise is some what postponed, not eradicated.
So while some will go around beating their chests that SF have failed, it is not a failure - merely a glitch in the programme, a programme thats only active really 10 years as opposed to the bigger parties who are involved in electoral politics since the foundation of the state.
Personally I think SF will have to take a long hard look at its self as I think its having an identity crisis at present in relation to the left, centre and right of Irish politics. They have still to produce an effective southern leadership that can tackle southern issues, they were hoping for that to become Mary Lou, again I think its back to the drawing board on that one.
Time will tell as constitutional politics takes the edge of a former radical organisation.

my 2p!

A Dub in Glasgo

Very good and insightful post Jon

mike65

Good post! I think that outlines the context and issues well.

I suspect much energy will get spent on trying to decide what the party should be and to whom it needs to appeal if its to make a "break-out".

Mike.

LordSutch

qwertplaywert wrote:

cant believe mary-lou didnt win a seat........*crys*

Thank God she didnt ...........

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

eoghan.geraghty

Very good post jon,
I think you answered my previous question in that.
As any capitalist will tell you, you have to speculate to accumulate.
I think SF are under a transformation, as they do have ambitions to be in power.
It will be interesting to see how they steer their party through this transformation.
BTW, I don't think this a complete disaster for SF. The electorate wanted stability.
Its also not a bad thing that FF have to lead the country through the next 5 years, which look set to be very rocky.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Jon

Jon wrote:

Sean Crowe independant? there's a thought :eek: You hardly think he got himself elected in 2002?

I think its time to put things into context here for SF. The party have only being contesting elections seriously since 1997. After 1981 it was obvious the party had some electoral strategists and it was only then that the long thought out Adams initiatives began to look anyway useful. In 1997 the party made their initial break through electing Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin to Leinster House. Thats a mere 10 years ago. The party itself at the time was in transistion as it attempted to come in from the cold of the war the IRA was engaged in. At that time SF was seen as radical and that whiff of cordite off the likes of Adams, Mcguiness etc appealed to many. With the Peace Process gearing up and taking hold 2002 saw them build on that increase in support and returned 5 TD's. The programme like 'Provos' by Peter Taylor did their image good. Adams was a relatively new face to Irish media after the lifting section 31, and most importantly the party had a phenomenal activist base and organisers - especially in Dublin where the vast majority of the activists were dedicated radical Republicans.

So whats changed?
A few things really, most importantly in my opinion - the peace process has taken it toll on the activist base. In an effort to become more mainstream the party has moved away from certain stances and policies most importantly Policing and the view that it will do anything to get into power in the North, the July 28th statement from the IRA and the impression of an arms 'hand-over' rocked a very stable and solid activist base. At this point some activists were already on the verge of leaving, mainly because of the perceived capitulation to the British govt. Throw into this, the perceived pussy footing around with George Bush (vast vast majority of SF activists are anti Bush/anti war) and photo ops with the man in the white house further more alienated the already shaky left base.

Then came Policing, and for some that was the straw that broke the camels back. There was a parting of the ways - especially in Dublin, where the parties heart exited. Some very capable people, including peope who were instrumental in the previous 1999 locals, 2002 GE increase in votes and the people responsible for electing Mary Lou as an MEP were gone.

So SF went into this election a weaker structured party than it would have done previously - imo. The people in charge now who are capable are only new to the scene. The perfect example being Nicky Keogh heading out and Mary Lou heading in, the same example can be replicated at an organisation level.
Add into that, the obvious fact that all the smaller parties were squeezed by the battle of the big guns and there you have it - SF rise is some what postponed, not eradicated.
So while some will go around beating their chests that SF have failed, it is not a failure - merely a glitch in the programme, a programme thats only active really 10 years as opposed to the bigger parties who are involved in electoral politics since the foundation of the state.
Personally I think SF will have to take a long hard look at its self as I think its having an identity crisis at present in relation to the left, centre and right of Irish politics. They have still to produce an effective southern leadership that can tackle southern issues, they were hoping for that to become Mary Lou, again I think its back to the drawing board on that one.
Time will tell as constitutional politics takes the edge of a former radical organisation.

my 2p!

yes good post but why was this analysis not posted before may 24th?
Before may 24th you (mainly) and other SF posters were cóck sure of the 10 seats or even 11 seats scenario.
Surely this realisation didnt just dawn today?

brianthebard

I'm so glad my predictions on SF came true. Now for my other prediction to happen-Labour in government!

Dyr

I'm gonna throw another theiry out, Sinn Fein towing the the international lefty line of "all freinds now-hands across the borders" on immigration did not play well with their voters who are generally drawn from the sections of the community that feel most threatened by low wage labour.

yomchi

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Hi Dave,
No chance of any leadership implications. Adams was indeed below par on this campaign, but SF will see this and every other campaign as a toe hole towards uniting the island - that is the over all objective which Adams is very much in control of. Apart from that there is no one next or near his abilities for leading the party

yes good post but why was this analysis not posted before may 24th?
Before may 24th you (mainly) and other SF posters were cóck sure of the 10 seats or even 11 seats scenario.
Surely this realisation didnt just dawn today?

tbh I wasn't cock sure, I was quietly confident, (I did start a thread asking do people think MLM can take a seat) and was basing my confidence on the figures the local areas were bringing back. I have mentioned before about the lack of experience that the Dublin party is now facing. It would have been hard to try sum up in my own words why SF may have done poorly before the event had happened anyhow.

murphaph

I'm sure Labour thought they had made the breakthrough in 1992 before being sent to Coventry again, same even happened to FG in 2002. Even if one accepts that this was a progressive step for SF, this does not imply that SF will go from strength to strength. They may plateau now, or maybe gain a little more strength and then plateau. They may gain a lot of strength but I really don't believe that now. The electorate have clearly shown they are most concerned by the handling of the economy by any prospective government. SF will not be a party such people vote for for a long long time, if ever. If the economy goes south, well then who knows............

yomchi

In a strange kind of a way, normality in the north may have handed SF its plateu already. There just seems nothing to differenciate between them and other parties now.

irish_bob

whoever said that sinn feins were relying on young fellas wearing celtic jerseys who shout up the ra hit the nail right on the head
trouble is , you cant rely on the lowest common denominator to remember what day to vote or to know what voting actually entails, thier not the sharpest kinves in the drawer though they would feel it if you pissed them off

apart from the non voter not showing up to supprt them
ivan yates got it right when he said the breakfest roll man decided that fianna fail were the best party to keep the construction industry going

thier a one policy party and though thier thee only show in town in the north among catholics , irish people up north a quite a different people to us down here

was delighted to see the phoney that is mary lou not get in
a waffler who can only get away with parroting the same media friendly liberal sacred cow blather so long ,
if your a socilist i say , was better to have voted for the working class hero that is tony gregory in dublin centreal, im glad to see that is what happend

E92

I have always held the belief that SF attracted the protest vote, along with the Greens and Independents. There was a huge market for this 5 years ago, thats because there was no alternative. People who were going to vote for Sinn Fein and Independents probably watched the leaders debate and decided to vote Berties team. Its widely acknowledged that Bertie won, I said it too, but I had expected Bertie to wipe the floor and he simply didnt, but I can find no evidence from the General Election result that the Fine Gael vote went down, if we did its was only 1 or 2 %. What really puzzles me is why Labour didnt do well,if Labour and Greens had done better we would be in Government. The fact that the 'Alliance for Change' wont be in Government cant be attributable to the performance of Fine Gael, thats for sure,and I would say in relation to Labour and the Greens,it was our transfers that helped them to get in the cases wher the FG candidate, almost all the transfers stayed with either another FG candidate(s), the Labour candidate(s), and Green candidate.
By the way, I need to add that while I was very happy with the performance of FG, its an awful bummer that Maireád Mc Guiness didn't get in, and we were so close to regaining 2 seats in Dún Laoghaire as well, which would have brought us up to 53, and losing Dr Liam Twomey is an awful loss but overall FG did very well,particularly in the context of FFs performance.

Other things that may contribute to Sinn Fein's performance both in the General Election and in the future is the fact that there are a lot of people not impressed by their long overdue decision on policing,the fact that a lot of the embers have left the party, one poster mentioned this already, the setting up of more extreme republican parties such as Éirigí, which will be fishing in the same pool of votes that Sinn Féin fish in, and the fact that in reality most people aren't that bothered by either the national question or Northern Ireland, in reality now that it is peaceful, it doesnt affect the Republic as much as before.

Some people have been remarking about the 'demise' of Sinn Féin. They are still going to be unfortunately around in the future, they did quite well in some places, and to those that say they are gone, well remember what was said about Fine Gael 5 years ago and look where we are now. Sinn Féin arent gone away, and wont be going away either, and theres no point in me or anyone else who despises Sinn Féin saying otherwise. When you are down, its always easier to get motivated and recover, look at FFs upward surge in the past few weeks, FGs increase in Dáil representation by 64%, FF were supposed to do really badly this time round, 5 years ago the question was not if but when would Fine Gael be a spent force in Irish politics indeed some were predicting that by this time we would no longer be the countrys 2nd largest party and on the verge of extintion.

redspider

> What's Happened to Sinn Fein ?

Well, they increased their 1st preferences share nationally from 6.50% in 2002 to 6.90% this time, a gain of 0.40%. Given that there was a bounce back in FG support, which squeezed the smaller parties due to our voting system, SF held their own by and large and lost just one seat, going from 5 to 4. They polled worse than the opinion polls I think.

SF did have pockets of success, which didnt result in seat gains. Their candidates in Donegal were close. In SW, 1000 votes behind for the final 3rd seat (note, smaller constituencies are harder to get a seat in) and also in the NE something like 400 seats behind. I didnt check other constituencies for how close they were but I wouldnt be surprised if they ran a few others close.

Voipjunkie wrote:

It shows the folly of the Labour party hitching themselves to FG they have managed to rescue FG and got nothing out of it for themselves

I dont think you could say that Labour rescused FG. The pact helped the FG 'franchise', I agree, as it showed they were serious about Government and that encouraged many voters to flock back to them. Labour, held their own by and large along with most of the smaller parties. And overall I think many in Labour will be happy that they got roughly the same number back in and to be in the pact. Labour will only gain a lot of they decide to run for Govermnet separetly as a main party, and again, they may not do well with that tactic, who knows. FG's gains came at the expense mainly of the PD's and the Independents, not Labour.

Also remember that in 1997, Labour had 17 seats at the start. They had 20 at the end (dissolution), So, getting 20 is a consolidation.

Note that Labour did not gain seats during the FG meltdown in 2002. SF gained +4, GP +4, PD +4, FF +8, Oth +3.

This election was a clawback of FG so some of those gains had to be lost again.

So, overall, it wasnt a case of Labour lifting FG, it was a case of FG's lift not bringing Labour along.

Redspider

marco murphy

SF rise is some what postponed, not eradicated.

I agree with Jon's analysis.

redspider

murphaph wrote:

The electorate have clearly shown they are most concerned by the handling of the economy

Except that FF lost 1 seat (using the dissolution number of 79, and they lost 3 seats if using the 81 number elected in 2002) and the PD's lost 6 seats.

How these losses, total of -9 since 2002, can then be concluded that the electorate have given a ringing endorsement to those that were in charge of our economy is beyond me!

That was the line that RTE were spinning this morning ad nauseum but the numbers of the state of the parties after this election just dont back that up.

Redspider

latenia

Perhaps the increased scrutiny of the electoral register prior to the election lessened their ability to 'focus their support' this time out? Do you know what I mean Jon?

yomchi

latenia wrote:

Perhaps the increased scrutiny of the electoral register prior to the election lessened their ability to 'focus their support' this time out? Do you know what I mean Jon?

:rolleyes:

ateam

redspider wrote:

Except that FF lost 1 seat (using the dissolution number of 79, and they lost 3 seats if using the 81 number elected in 2002) and the PD's lost 6 seats.

How these losses, total of -9 since 2002, can then be concluded that the electorate have given a ringing endorsement to those that were in charge of our economy is beyond me!

That was the line that RTE were spinning this morning ad nauseum but the numbers of the state of the parties after this election just dont back that up.

Redspider

In terms of Fianna Fail, it was a stunning result. I don't think RTE are claiming it was a victory for the outgoing government, but a victory for Fianna Fail. Obviously, the election was a disaster for the PDs.

Sinn Fein had no break through. Sean Crowe couldn't speak for his dinner as a politician. How he was elected in the first place is beyond me.

redspider

ateam wrote:

In terms of Fianna Fail, it was a stunning result.
I don't think RTE are claiming it was a victory for the outgoing government, but a victory for Fianna Fail.
Obviously, the election was a disaster for the PDs.

RTE are claiming it was a victory for FF, yet FF had 81 seats in 2002, and this time out they got 78 seats. That is a loss of 3 seats.

I am more than willing to give FF credit where its due, but instead of lauding FF, RTE should be questioning how FF just managed to hang on.

Additionally, in terms of the FF+PD government, it went from 89 seats in 2002 to the now 80 seats, a loss of 9 serats which is greater than 10%! How that can be interpreted as a major FF success is beyond me.

Any neutral analysis of the numbers of seats would see that FF did worse than the last time.

Redspider

Heinrich

redspider wrote:

RTE are claiming it was a victory for FF, yet FF had 81 seats in 2002, and this time out they got 78 seats. That is a loss of 3 seats.

Not forgetting that one seat was the CC.

Voipjunkie

redspider wrote:

>



I dont think you could say that Labour rescused FG. The pact helped the FG 'franchise', I agree, as it showed they were serious about Government and that encouraged many voters to flock back to them. Labour, held their own by and large along with most of the smaller parties. And overall I think many in Labour will be happy that they got roughly the same number back in and to be in the pact. Labour will only gain a lot of they decide to run for Govermnet separetly as a main party, and again, they may not do well with that tactic, who knows. FG's gains came at the expense mainly of the PD's and the Independents, not Labour.

Also remember that in 1997, Labour had 17 seats at the start. They had 20 at the end (dissolution), So, getting 20 is a consolidation.

Note that Labour did not gain seats during the FG meltdown in 2002. SF gained +4, GP +4, PD +4, FF +8, Oth +3.

This election was a clawback of FG so some of those gains had to be lost again.

So, overall, it wasnt a case of Labour lifting FG, it was a case of FG's lift not bringing Labour along.

Redspider

No Labour hitching themselves to FG allowed FG to protray themselves as a viable alternative to FF which they would not have been able to do with out Labour support.
What did labour get in return? Nothing a drop in their vote and the loss of a seat.

Also Labour had 33 seats going into the election in 1997 and their now leaders party had 4 so combined they had 37 seats

They have consolidated the losses they made 10 years ago and hitching themselves to FG they will stay there as they are not offering an alternative they are offering to be FF lites mudguard

LuckyLloyd

ateam wrote:

Sinn Fein had no break through. Sean Crowe couldn't speak for his dinner as a politician. How he was elected in the first place is beyond me.

He was elected because he works himself to the bone for his constituency (my constituency) and maintains a consistent prescence in it all year round - not just for the few months before an election. He comes across as being in politics to serve and give back to the community - and people vote for him as a result. You are clearly uninformed on the subject of his standing and worth in his constituency.

mike65

FF are being claimed as having success in a relative way I think, that and the simple fact they will spend the next 4-5 years in power if they play thier cards right.

Mike.