What's Happened to Sinn Fein!!!

LordSutch

nesf wrote:

I thought Sinn Fein had a pretty good election in the environment that was there. They showed quite large amounts of support in new areas and a lot of places where they didn't make a break through they got a decent number of votes and are, in my opinion, in a pretty good position to build from for the next election.

Funny thing is that I keep hearing this 'breakthrough' bilge after every single Election since 92' and thank God it never happens ..................

Begrudgingly I would give full credit to the Sinn Fein Spin doctors & the Sinn Fein Hype merchants who are also worryingly endemic in Irish media circles, listening to Newstalk (in particular) over the last few weeks anybody would have thought that it was a 'given' that the Shinners would end up with ten, twelve, or maybe even fourteen seats which I know for sure scared the hell out of a lot of people, hence the big backlash?

Really happy the Shinners failed (specially McDonald) not because she has the whiff of sulphur about her (she is one of the few who doesnt) but because she is seriously lacking in economic ideas & brain cells? and as for Adams TV fau-pas on Southern economics ~ long may they continue

All Hype & Spin .....................

ateam

redspider wrote:

RTE are claiming it was a victory for FF, yet FF had 81 seats in 2002, and this time out they got 78 seats. That is a loss of 3 seats.

I am more than willing to give FF credit where its due, but instead of lauding FF, RTE should be questioning how FF just managed to hang on.

Additionally, in terms of the FF+PD government, it went from 89 seats in 2002 to the now 80 seats, a loss of 9 serats which is greater than 10%! How that can be interpreted as a major FF success is beyond me.

Any neutral analysis of the numbers of seats would see that FF did worse than the last time.

Redspider

FF and the PDs are separate parties in government. The poor showing of the PDs was a reflection of the PDs, not the government. The reality is that FF won the majority of first preference votes(42%) and the majority of seats(78). Looking at it objectively, it was a victory for FF. In 50 years no one will remember that FF lost 3 seats.

Villain

I think the poor performance of the PD's was due to a few things including but not limited to McDowell's flapping whether he would pull out or not, his bashing of anything left wing in particular his bashing of Gerry Adams the most popular party leader in most polls. That along with the issues of Health and Justice which the PD's had control of.

is_that_so

irish1 wrote:

I think the poor performance of the PD's was due to a few things including but not limited to McDowell's flapping whether he would pull out or not, his bashing of anything left wing in particular his bashing of Gerry Adams the most popular party leader in most polls. That along with the issues of Health and Justice which the PD's had control of.

I think you will find that a lot of people, took pleasure in that "bashing" and the entertainment value McDowell provided in that debate. As you pointed out it was the PDs performance over the term, McDowell's own dithering and perhaps their ability to "wag the dog", despite their small size.

Villain

Well perhaps some people did but the last poll I saw before the election had Gerry Adams personal rating 5% higher than Bertie's despite a lot of people seem to like Adams, his rating was a hell of a lot higher than McDowell's

guinnessdrinker

I think that Sinn Fein did well to win 4 seats considering the annihilation of small parties particularly the PD's. They also increased their first preference percentage and increased their overall vote nationally.

A lot of people pointed out SF's lack of knowledge with regards to the economy, they did not seem to have a good understanding of it, but the economy was not the first priority for a lot of voters, in fact it was down the list according to the RTE exit poll.

The fact that SF are in governmnent in the north and have to deal with issues such as health, education and the economy can only help the party in the long run. They will have experience of dealing with all of these issues and will be better prepared for elections in the future.

Despite all the scaremongering and anti SF rants by the likes of McDowell, the SF vote increased but not everyone seems to have recognised this.

The White Rose

So while some will go around beating their chests that SF have failed, it is not a failure - merely a glitch in the programme, a programme thats only active really 10 years as opposed to the bigger parties who are involved in electoral politics since the foundation of the state.

What in gods name constitutes a failure for SF if this election doesnt?

The Irish people are very clever- when the IRA were thinking of handing in the guns SF vote went up...and up

Now that the guns are gone - Goodbye my friends, never darken our doors again, we are not interested in your tribal, Protestant hating, Irish speaking utopia

SF are finished in the republic- they will be like the Socialist party, a party of discontent with a very small niche

Villain

The White Rose Sinn Fein have 4 elected TD's, they increased their vote i.e. more people voted for them now than in the last election so despite what you may "THINK" the facts prove you incorrect, simple maths really!

murphaph

irish1 wrote:

The White Rose Sinn Fein have 4 elected TD's, they increased their vote i.e. more people voted for them now than in the last election so despite what you may "THINK" the facts prove you incorrect, simple maths really!

But I genuinely expected them to benefit much more from their entry into government (a defacto acceptance of british control of Northern Ireland) in Stormont. If they didn't make the breakthrough on the back of this then why would they make the breakthrough in 5 years? If the SDLP ran down here they'd do equally badly. SF don't offer anything that Joe Higgins' lot haven't been offering for years. Irish people who aren't used to a welfare state to suckle off simply don't want very left wing parties to represent them. Nothing to do with the IRA or any of that anymore.

E92

The White Rose wrote:

What in gods name constitutes a failure for SF if this election doesnt?

The Irish people are very clever- when the IRA were thinking of handing in the guns SF vote went up...and up

Now that the guns are gone - Goodbye my friends, never darken our doors again, we are not interested in your tribal, Protestant hating, Irish speaking utopia

SF are finished in the republic- they will be like the Socialist party, a party of discontent with a very small niche

I would love to tell you that this is true, but unfortunately I fear this not to be. Sinn Feins vote in any constituency bar Cavan-Monaghan where they had an outgoing deputy DECREASED. The increase in their share of the vote is attributable to the fact that they ran someone in every constituency bar 1 for the very first time, before people who were going to vote Sinn Fein in some parts of the country couldnt, and that explains the rise in their vote but the loss in seats. It would be very interesting to see how their vote compares in the constituencies that they ran a candidate both this time and last time. that would explain whether their rise has stalled for the moment or they were just a passing fad in Irish politics. The latter obviously is what I would prefer.

As I said theres no point in myself or anybody who despises Sinn Féin getting excited yet. The next election will tell a lot in terms of where Sinn Fein is going in this country. Their only raison d'être is the national question IMO. There are left wing parties to deal with the other issues they mention.

Villain

I'm not saying they did really well but anyone that is trying to say they did badly or that they are finished etc is simply fooling themselves. Nothern Ireland is only going to grow stronger now and people will see a very different Northern Ireland in the next 5 years imo. Sinn Fein for all their policy and other failings are excellent at local politics and I think they will hold their own in the next local elections too, it was far too soon for Sinn Fein to go into government in this state I stated that before the election but after 5 years in power in the North I think the party will learn a lot and I'm sure they will grow again in 5 years time, whether that is a good thing or not is open to opinion but anyone who looked at the counts closely this weekend will know how well Sinn Fein did.

bleg

irish1 wrote:

The White Rose Sinn Fein have 4 elected TD's, they increased their vote i.e. more people voted for them now than in the last election so despite what you may "THINK" the facts prove you incorrect, simple maths really!

5 seats in 2002, 4 seats in 2007

5-1=4

Maths doesn't come simpler than that.

Villain

Ah but votes don't always mean seats as I say anyone who followed the count would have seen that Sinn Fein held their vote when other small parties and independents struggled under FG's gains. Again I'm not saying Sinn Fein did well but anyone writing them off after the results is deluding themselves imo.

Time Magazine

Irish1, their vote went up, but how many more candidates did they run? They ran no candidate in Kildare North last time and ran a hopeless candidate this time who didn't even get expenses. But they still got an extra 1000 votes, thus upping their "percentage".

Did their percentage per candidate rise or fall?
Did they gain seats?

irish_bob

I'm not saying they did really well but anyone that is trying to say they did badly or that they are finished etc is simply fooling themselves. Nothern Ireland is only going to grow stronger now and people will see a very different Northern Ireland in the next 5 years imo. Sinn Fein for all their policy and other failings are excellent at local politics and I think they will hold their own in the next local elections too, it was far too soon for Sinn Fein to go into government in this state I stated that before the election but after 5 years in power in the North I think the party will learn a lot and I'm sure they will grow again in 5 years time, whether that is a good thing or not is open to opinion but anyone who looked at the counts closely this weekend will know how well Sinn Fein did.
Today 21:44



thats northern ireland and northern ireland is a very tribal place where elections as prooven by the dup and sinn feins complete domination are won by which ever party is strongest on the national question
voters down south are a little more hard to please , their mainly concerned about run of the mill every day bread and butter issues , northern voters as prooven by the recent result for the dup and sinn fein are not dictated by bread and butter issues ,

Villain

Obviously Ibid what you say is correct, my point here really is that Sinn Fein have not gone into meltdown, as many people have said earlier in this thread the big parties squeezed the small parties yet Sinn Fein held their vote well. We can circle the wagons here all week but anyone that trys to say Sinn Fein are in freefall etc is just trying to make themsleves feel better.

The White Rose

What do Sinn Fein offer that other parties dont?

Their only point of difference is the national question and tbh i dont think that is an issue anymore here in the South. You can travel across the border and not even know you've crossed it. Europe makes most of the important decisions now anyway

Its possible to have some respect for people like Martin Ferris who fought in the 'war' (he thought it was one at any rate) and have taken up politics. But what about Mary Lou Mac D who was parachuted in to appeal to middle class people but didnt fool people. Keogh was a much better option

bleg

I don't like this notion of the little guys getting "squeezed" by the big guys. The smaller parties and indpendents were squeezed out by the electorate. Simple as that.

Time Magazine

What about relative freefall though? It's not so long ago I was arguing with a Shinner who said "we're on our way to over-taking Labour, if we can over-take Fine Gael..." They need to continue their momentum to get anywhere in the near future or else they won't be such an up-and-coming and cool party for scum to vote for (I'm not saying all SF voters are scum, I'm saying a lot of scum vote SF - and you know it's true).

The White Rose

I don't like this notion of the little guys getting "squeezed" by the big guys.

What a great word 'squeezed' is. If I lose my job or the wife leaves me Im goin to say i was 'squeezed'

The little parties and independents were practically annihalated. Whay cant pepole just say this

Villain

Imo Ibid I don't think so, I mean they close to getting more seats, I think they have a lot work to do and they clearly need to employ some economic brains with knowledge of the Irish ecomony. But they have a strong base in certain areas and I think the biggest plus they have is the age profile of some of their new candidates. From my experience they work very hard this was shown by them getting 57 candidates elected in 2004 local elections.

guinnessdrinker

(I'm not saying all SF voters are scum, I'm saying a lot of scum vote SF - and you know it's true).

Ibid, how do you know those people vote or voted for Sinn Fein.

murphaph

But what do SF bring to the table that's different from any other party? What's their killer app? Why would I vote SF over other leftwing parties? Remember other leftwing parties are tiny or have vanished completely. Modern irish politics is dominated by centrist parties. Why? because the irish electorate turns out to be quite a conservative bunch afterall. All it took was lucre. Unless there's a total collapse in the economy then I fear the polotics of protest/revolution are dead. I am not happy that we have such a bland offering but it seems that's what the people want. SF would have to become just another centrist party to get anywhere, and then why would one vote for SF over any other (more established) centrist party?

A Dub in Glasgo

Ibid wrote:

What about relative freefall though? It's not so long ago I was arguing with a Shinner who said "we're on our way to over-taking Labour, if we can over-take Fine Gael..." They need to continue their momentum to get anywhere in the near future or else they won't be such an up-and-coming and cool party for scum to vote for (I'm not saying all SF voters are scum, I'm saying a lot of scum vote SF - and you know it's true).

Can you point to the part of that 20 second clip where the guy shows a SF voting slip or states that he votes SF to the camera?... I may have missed it so help me out here.

ninebeanrows

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

Can you point to the part of that 20 second clip where the guy shows a SF voting slip or states that he votes SF to the camera?... I may have missed it so help me out here.

Here it's true whether it's on the video or not, who you trying to kid? We all know it's true and were allowed say it.

Time Magazine

The lads in this clip throwing petrol bombs at the guards, wearing Celtic jerseys, draped in tricolours and wearing James Connolly scarves, butchering the Fields of Athenry with the "Sinn Féin" and "IRA" additions....

...vote PD?

Come of it lads. Ye know well the disaffected Celtic jersey wearing yobs vote for SF in far greater percentages than the average guy on the street.

nesf

Ibid wrote:

The lads in this clip throwing petrol bombs at the guards, wearing Celtic jerseys, draped in tricolours and wearing James Connolly scarves, butchering the Fields of Athenry with the "Sinn Féin" and "IRA" additions....

Christian Solidarity Party voter tbh.

Voipjunkie

E92 wrote:

I would love to tell you that this is true, but unfortunately I fear this not to be. Sinn Feins vote in any constituency bar Cavan-Monaghan where they had an outgoing deputy DECREASED. The increase in their share of the vote is attributable to the fact that they ran someone in every constituency bar 1 for the very first time, before people who were going to vote Sinn Fein in some parts of the country couldnt, and that explains the rise in their vote but the loss in seats. It would be very interesting to see how their vote compares in the constituencies that they ran a candidate both this time and last time. that would explain whether their rise has stalled for the moment or they were just a passing fad in Irish politics. The latter obviously is what I would prefer.

As I said theres no point in myself or anybody who despises Sinn Féin getting excited yet. The next election will tell a lot in terms of where Sinn Fein is going in this country. Their only raison d'être is the national question IMO. There are left wing parties to deal with the other issues they mention.

In fairness there is a lot of wishfull thinking here
If you look at the vote they got

In Donegal SW they tripled their vote
In Donegal NE they doubled it
In Dublin NE they went from 3000 to 4660
In Dublin NW they polled nearly exactly the same as 5 years ago
Mayo from 2000 up to 3600
They polled well in Sligo North Leitrim and Leitrim Roscommon where if you combine them as they did not exist 5 years ago their vote was well up
In the 2 new meath constituencies if you compare the combined vote to 2002 they were up as well.

In the constituencies that they held seats SF allowed the impression that they were safe as houses to gain currency and when that happens you can get caught out badly.
In Kerry were the media were speculating that Ferris might be under pressure they held the seat comfortably.


They made an absolute bags of Dublin central dropping MLM in and in places were they were not in any real contention their vote was squeezed just like all the smaller parties.
It is wishful thinking on behalf of some that want to believe that SF is over but the evidence does not support it.

The other thing of note is that 4 of the 5 seats that SF were targetting were 3 seaters were it is very difficult for small parties to make a break through especially if you are in anyway transfer repellant.

Tar.Aldarion

Ibid wrote:

The lads in this clip throwing petrol bombs at the guards, wearing Celtic jerseys, draped in tricolours and wearing James Connolly scarves, butchering the Fields of Athenry with the "Sinn Féin" and "IRA" additions....

...vote PD?

Come of it lads. Ye know well the disaffected Celtic jersey wearing yobs vote for SF in far greater percentages than the average guy on the street.

The only guy I know that wears a celtic jersey voted for sein fein, I was shocked.

FTA69

Ibid wrote:

Come of it lads. Ye know well the disaffected Celtic jersey wearing yobs vote for SF in far greater percentages than the average guy on the street.

Yobs don't vote at all. In fact most people who vote for SF are normal people from working class areas, although judging by your uninformed, bigoted nonsense above I'd imagine you tar everyone from such backgrounds as the same.