What's Happened to Sinn Fein!!!

djdeclan

Just to throw my tuppence into the whole derry debate (what it has to do with a sinn fein thread ill never know!)
Im from beside derry originally, just over the border in Donegal, and i have to disagree with those who call it a kip. For a city that has come through about 30 years of quasi war it looks quite well! I would feel far safer even in the dodgier areas of derry than in certain parts of dublin (where i now live).
As for the whole derry vs londonderry thing, some facts need to be established:
1. It was called derry before it was called londonderry (the london prefix was added by the british, it has no basis in meaning)
2. To the best of my knowledge DERRY city council (who represent the entire city) voted earlier this year to change the official name back to derry, this request was refused.

Just to add a controversial comment if you look at a map of derry city and the surrounding area you will see that the west bank of the city is actually built on part of donegal, its only links to the rest of northern ireland are via two bridges.

Voipjunkie

TBH I have no idea what the Issue of Derrys name has to do with SF election result but I would suggest that coming on a thread about SF and using the term L/Derry particularly when the person has never been to Derry and as such is not calling it that because that is what they grew up with or because they are from the Northern Unionist community and that is what they call it is just an attempt to start a flame which these threads on SF seem to continously descend into.

Victor Meldrew

djdeclan wrote:

Just to throw my tuppence into the whole derry debate (what it has to do with a sinn fein thread ill never know!)

me neither, I've tried, and failed here

djdeclan wrote:

Just to add a controversial comment if you look at a map of derry city and the surrounding area you will see that the west bank of the city is actually built on part of donegal, its only links to the rest of northern ireland are via two bridges.

Yes, it goes well into the country side / suburbs. Seeing as we are off topic, anyone know if the chunk to the west of the foyle (Bogside) was always county Derry, or if a chunk went missing from Donegal, the border follows the foyle for a good bit then heads west..., if so, what's the historical context for that bit being nicked? Note this is not just a ploy to kill the thread by getting it moved to history

Rock Climber

Voipjunkie wrote:

TBH I have no idea what the Issue of Derrys name has to do with SF election result but I would suggest that coming on a thread about SF and using the term L/Derry particularly when the person has never been to Derry and as such is not calling it that because that is what they grew up with or because they are from the Northern Unionist community and that is what they call it is just an attempt to start a flame which these threads on SF seem to continously descend into.

QFT!

Though I commented on that ot part myself lets go back on topic now and discuss why SF fell 6 seats short of expectations..

The next off topic post will be deleted.

sceptre

Voipjunkie wrote:

TBH I have no idea what the Issue of Derrys name has to do with SF election result

It's got nothing to do with anything except silly mudslinging. I've decided that henceforth in my boards postings I'll use the terms "Derry", "Londonderry" and "(London)Derry" in strict rotation to annoy as many people as possible.

I think a few things happened in this election to contribute to SF's losses. I know of groups of people who didn't want to vote for FF last time out but couldn't bring themselves to vote for any party that supported treaties with the Sasanaigh so voted SF instead. The last time out it was pretty apparent that FF were going to be returned again, this time it was less clear-cut so I suspect a few of those splitters returned to the voting fold when they thought they were most needed. Additionally all of the smaller parties were squeezed out in some way by the major two and there was a further drop in the SF vote because of that. All the small parties are generally competing for the final seats, they were going to be the first to feel the pinch. I don't think there's anything magical in the drop in seats for SF specifically, they just lost out along with everyone else who wasn't going to be the major part of a government. There is the small matter of the stated reluctance of the major parties to go into government with SF (Irish people often like the idea that their votes will count for something significant) and I reckon this had a small bearing this time out.

Blackjack

sceptre wrote:

There is the small matter of the stated reluctance of the major parties to go into government with SF (Irish people often like the idea that their votes will count for something significant) and I reckon this had a small bearing this time out.

Given that we do have (contrary to the opinions of those who don't like the end results) a reasonably sophisticated electorate, I would have to agree. People do understand the PR-STV system, will use their vote to try to elect those that will feel best represent them, and have their best chance of being represented.

Voipjunkie

sceptre wrote:

There is the small matter of the stated reluctance of the major parties to go into government with SF (Irish people often like the idea that their votes will count for something significant) and I reckon this had a small bearing this time out.

yeah the other parties made SF irrelevant or less relevant than they could have been

axer

sceptre wrote:

It's got nothing to do with anything except silly mudslinging. I've decided that henceforth in my boards postings I'll use the terms "Derry", "Londonderry" and "(London)Derry" in strict rotation to annoy as many people as possible.

Aye, the perfect way to troll! :rolleyes:

I don't think SF have hit a plateau. I think they can now concentrate on the south now that the north looks like it could be settled. They also have the chance to prove themselves up north which might gain them a few votes down south if successful.

yomchi

You must remember also, as I've stated before - SF's goal is not based on electoral politics, whether they do good or bad in elections will not decide anything to do with organistion or existence. The previous notion that SF will merge with FF at some point is so far removed from common sense thinking and only highlights the fact that some people just don't understand SF objectives.
The building of political strength is key to their objectives of unifying the country. ONE aspect of building political strength is gaining electoral strength (the two are very different). Other aspects of SF strategies was rolled out this week with the building alliances with Unionists framework - this also feeds into the strategic objectives, along with gaining electoral strength and others. Everything SF does politically is guided by their strategic objectives with the end goal in sight.
So to keep it short, this election while not having the break through everyone expected, wasn't all bad due to the increase in % votes, but to talk about SF as if electoral politics was their Reason d'etre is misguided.

LordSutch

For what its worth, this is my take on what the Shinners are up-to, and as I've stated many times before - Sinn Fein's main goal & objective is not based on whether they currently do good or bad in elections down South, but to get a toe-hold & lever their way in through the back door, courtesy of the (ignorant of their past) Youth Vote ~ the notion that Sinn Fein will amalgamate with Fianna Fail some time in the future is also a scary possability (but not a very realistic one in the near future) I suspect Sinn Fein's objectives are far more ruthless and would involve not just joining-up with Fianna Fail, but Gobbling them-up also! ~ this in my opinion could be one of their main objectives, leading-up to (Total island domination)! Other aspects of the Sinn Fein strategy is to build alliances with the British (Unionists) in the North, thus fooling them into a false sense of security ~ add to this a possible future rise in electoral strength in the South? and then you have the perfect ingredients to take over the whole island ~ The North already softened-up, the Southern door ajar, one big foothold in the North, and the South slowly simmering & being prepared, & then The Sinn Fein Holy Grail within sight (Total island domination) ~ but only if we let it happen ( we wont) everything Sinn Fein does is guaged & guided by their strategic objective to take over the Whole island by hook or by Crook (excuse the pun)

With all the talk about the Shinners being up to ten, twelve, or forteen seats prior to the election, I am now really glad that they have been brought back down to Earth with a Big Bang (excuse the pun again) and by a Southern Electorate ~ there is a God

axer

ArthurF wrote:

For what its worth, this is my take on what the Shinners are up-to, and as I've stated many times before - Sinn Fein's main goal & objective is not based on whether they currently do good or bad in elections down South, but to get a toe-hold & lever their way in through the back door, courtesy of the (ignorant of their past) Youth Vote ~ the notion that Sinn Fein will amalgamate with Fianna Fail some time in the future is also a scary possability (but not a very realistic one in the near future) I suspect Sinn Fein's objectives are far more ruthless and would involve not just joining-up with Fianna Fail, but Gobbling them-up also! ~ this in my opinion could be one of their main objectives, leading-up to (Total island domination)! Other aspects of the Sinn Fein strategy is to build alliances with the British (Unionists) in the North, thus fooling them into a false sense of security ~ add to this a possible future rise in electoral strength in the South? and then you have the perfect ingredients to take over the whole island ~ The North already softened-up, the Southern door ajar, one big foothold in the North, and the South slowly simmering & being prepared, & then The Sinn Fein Holy Grail within sight (Total island domination) ~ but only if we let it happen ( we wont) everything Sinn Fein does is guaged & guided by their strategic objective to take over the Whole island by hook or by Crook (excuse the pun)

You tell them ArthurF!!

I mean it might look like they are only trying to take over Ireland now for their own ruthless gain - but will that be enough? I don't think so. More than likely they will take over britian then france after that. Stop these tyrants now!!! Oh god, someone please think of the children!!! :rolleyes:

guinnessdrinker

courtesy of the (ignorant of their past) Youth Vote

Arthur F, im a bit annoyed by this comment, to call a youth ignorant if they voted the way you didnt want them to vote.

Also,

Other aspects of the Sinn Fein strategy is to build alliances with the British (Unionists) in the North, thus fooling them into a false sense of security

I have a bit more respect for some of the Unionist politicians than you seem to. I dont believe they will be stupid enough to be fooled to do anything they dont want to.

The building alliances with Unionists inititive can of course only be a good thing, or do you prefer if people remain polarised as they have in the past.

Its time to move on.

E92

guinnessdrinker wrote:

Arthur F, im a bit annoyed by this comment, to call a youth ignorant if they voted the way you didnt want them to vote.

I think what he means and hes actually right assuming it to be true is that some young people vote for Sinn Fein, because its "cool" to vote for Sinn Fein. Unfortunately politics isnt about being cool, hence the ignorance of it. I know people who were going to vote for Sinn Fein, but when I reminded them the consequences of it, their(SFs) past, and the consequence of their economic polices, they werent long changing their minds! They freely admitted they would vote for Sinn Fein to annoy the rest of us and they hadnt thought it through. Now there are people who genuinely are into all the thing that Sinn Fein stand for, and if people want to vote for SF on policy and not a beauty contest, I respect that, but a bit like the Greens, they get the protest vote.

Liam Byrne

....the same youth who, when drunk, seemed to be compelled to chant "Sinn Fein" / "IRA" in the middle of "The Fields of Athenry", completely ignorant of what they were condoning.

I stopped playing it at gigs for that very reason. I've since started again, due to the song's odd association with the Munster Rugby team, but if anyone starts that ****e chanting I'll pull the song.

And therein is the obscure reference to it being "cool".....I mean, can you imagine what would happen if, in the middle of a song in the midst of drunken mates, some young fella started chanting "Fianna Fail" ? He'd be laughed out the door - if only for its inappropriateness on a night out.

God only knows where this (sub-section of the) youth gets their inspiration from (probably Jade Goody and lots of other brainless z-celebs) but reality needs to be pointed out to them....

murphaph

Yeah, twerps who shout "Sinn Fein, IRA" in the middle of what is a nice song are more ofte than not your ignorant yoof, with an IQ at or slightly above room temperature.

LordSutch

guinnessdrinker wrote:

Arthur F, im a bit annoyed by this comment, to call a youth ignorant if they voted the way you didnt want them to vote.

Regarding the youth vote, please see the LINK provided by Post #147 ~ you might also see my previous Post#144 to explain why the 'Youth Vote' has been mentioned.

axer

ArthurF wrote:

Regarding the youth vote, please see the LINK provided by Post #147 ~ you might also see my previous Post#144 to explain why the 'Youth Vote' has been mentioned.

Talking about past violence is a rubbish argument. It must be awful for you to think then that FF and FG with their violent histories are actually running the country.

Why don't you try and convince the youth of what you think are bad policies instead of lecturing them about the IRA's past violence otherwise you are just scaremongering. Move on.

Liam Byrne

axer wrote:

Talking about past violence is a rubbish argument. It must be awful for you to think then that FF and FG with their violent histories are actually running the country.

Why don't you try and convince the youth of what you think are bad policies instead of lecturing them about the IRA's past violence otherwise you are just scaremongering. Move on.

OK, so assuming that your views are fair and balanced, and that past violence and criminality is "a rubbish argument", I would then presume that you are of the opinion that Bertie's fairly recent dodgy activities should be ignored, and Ray Burke and Liam Lawlor should not have been jailed, and Haughey shouldn't have been investigated, etc, etc ?

No-one is having a go at SF in isolation; all we are saying is that they, among others, have been pretty closely associated with dodgy activities, many FAR worse than accepting cash for a house.

Bertie HAD disassociated himself from Haughey & Co up to recently, so the past activities were well in the past, plus the current generation of FF politicians had nothing to do with any violence from way back in 1916.

Maybe in 2098 we will have the same opinion of SF, in which case we'd be being completely fair and balanced in how we view past associations with violence - i.e. 90-odd years later the actions of past members will be irrelevant. Unfortunately the FF dodgyness hasn't gone away, you know, so I've no inclination to support them either, but if it came to a choice between FF & SF, I'd prefer the dodgyness, thanks very much.

As for "scaremongering", I don't think so; I don't want anyone who has so recently been associated with criminality or violence against gardai in charge of a justice portfolio or crimefighting budget. That would be "bad policy".....and anyone who compares this with the north can sod off; the public's voting decisions up there voted in 2 sets of extremists so they have no choice - down here we DO have other choices, and judging by the vote I'm not the only one who questioned and rejected SF's suitability, despite my apparent difference of opinion with most in relation to FF's suitability.

And again, if a local criminal ran for election, I'd look elsewhere; a local candidate here was a local gutter solicitor who represented every scumbag in the city, getting them off unpunished, and is also trying to get the Government to pay/compensate prison inmates for being locked up and having to do stuff like clean out their cells :mad: - despite the fact that their imprisionment could easily have been avoided - all they had to do was not break the law! So his views on what's right are a million miles from mine, so he didn't get my vote either!

Just face facts; there are (at least some) people in Sinn Fein (and I've seen some of the websites and posts in other threads, so I know what I'm talking about) whose views on society are despicable, and if, by having those views, the public don't support/think them suitable/vote for them, that's not the public's fault, and you can't simply dismiss those concerns by glibly saying "move on".

yomchi

ArthurF wrote:

For what its worth, this is my take on what the Shinners are up-to, and as I've stated many times before - Sinn Fein's main goal & objective is not based on whether they currently do good or bad in elections down South, but to get a toe-hold & lever their way in through the back door, courtesy of the (ignorant of their past) Youth Vote ~ the notion that Sinn Fein will amalgamate with Fianna Fail some time in the future is also a scary possability (but not a very realistic one in the near future) I suspect Sinn Fein's objectives are far more ruthless and would involve not just joining-up with Fianna Fail, but Gobbling them-up also! ~ this in my opinion could be one of their main objectives, leading-up to (Total island domination)! Other aspects of the Sinn Fein strategy is to build alliances with the British (Unionists) in the North, thus fooling them into a false sense of security ~ add to this a possible future rise in electoral strength in the South? and then you have the perfect ingredients to take over the whole island ~ The North already softened-up, the Southern door ajar, one big foothold in the North, and the South slowly simmering & being prepared, & then The Sinn Fein Holy Grail within sight (Total island domination) ~ but only if we let it happen ( we wont) everything Sinn Fein does is guaged & guided by their strategic objective to take over the Whole island by hook or by Crook (excuse the pun)

With all the talk about the Shinners being up to ten, twelve, or forteen seats prior to the election, I am now really glad that they have been brought back down to Earth with a Big Bang (excuse the pun again) and by a Southern Electorate ~ there is a God

Arthur if your crazy notion bore any truth the world would be full of fools all being deceived by SF. Stick to sci-fi i'd say

I think this thread is doomed to meandering nonsense just when it was going back on track.

Low Lie the fields of Athenry...

LordSutch

axer wrote:

Talking about past violence is a rubbish argument.

Why don't you try and convince the youth of what you think are bad policies instead of lecturing them about the IRA's past violence otherwise you are just scaremongering. Move on.

Maybe in ten or twenty years time, when the images of mutilated bodies from the Six O'Clock news have faded & the whiff of cordite has blown away in the wind, and the Leader has changed, then I might learn to accept them as 'main stream' and the youth vote will be a different ball game altogether by then, but currently I think its only a good thing that the youth be kept informed of what the current Shinners truly represent ......
(the hurt is still too raw & too fresh in the mind).

LordSutch

Jon wrote:

Arthur if your crazy notion bore any truth the world would be full of fools all being deceived by SF. Stick to sci-fi i'd say

I think this thread is doomed to meandering nonsense just when it was going back on track.

Low Lie the fields of Athenry...

Oops, did I hit a nerve there Jon?

yomchi

No Arthur. You carry on, I'll be in Personal Issues if you're looking for me.

Good man.

murphaph

I'm with Jon here, let's try to get what could be an interesting thread back on track.


I wonder what percentage of homeowners voted SF. I think the proportion would be quite low. I think if we looked at homeowners who owe more than 50% of the value of their homes to their mortgage provider we'd see an even lower percentage.

Is it possible that northerners will look south and ask themselves "if the southerners don't vote SF, and we live in the peace as them, why do we still vote SF?"

We've almost taken their future success in NI as a given, but is it? Even of the SDLP or unionist/centre parties fail to attract current nationalists, what of FF mobilise up north? Could they halt SF's advances in the province?

brianthebard

Back on topic then, why did SF ever think they were going to gain seats this election? They didn't present anything new or unique to the electorate, their president was shown to have a very shaky grasp of matters, on the TV debate, and they are still, whether you like it or not, an overwhelmingly one issue party. Furthermore, the smaller parties in general had the deluded notion that they were going to gain seats, even though it was clear that FG was on the rise, FF would be fairly steady and labour are, well labour. (it takes a lot to shake their voters imo). In short any seats up for grabs were between the big three players and the smaller parties didn't seem to know it.

yomchi

brianthebard wrote:

Back on topic then, why did SF ever think they were going to gain seats this election? They didn't present anything new or unique to the electorate, their president was shown to have a very shaky grasp of matters, on the TV debate, and they are still, whether you like it or not, an overwhelmingly one issue party. Furthermore, the smaller parties in general had the deluded notion that they were going to gain seats, even though it was clear that FG was on the rise, FF would be fairly steady and labour are, well labour. (it takes a lot to shake their voters imo). In short any seats up for grabs were between the big three players and the smaller parties didn't seem to know it.

A couple of reasons, the figures received in the 2004 locals, the perception that they were on a cusp of a wave after the settlement in the North, the IRA initiatives and a 'great' election strategy. I was in Parnell square today and there is still some head scratching going on!

iamhunted

the local SF councillor here increased his vote by something like 25% in this election. I dont think the election was a failure in any way for sinn fein.

bt the way - Im a homeowner and i voted shinner.

murphaph

iamhunted wrote:

I dont think the election was a failure in any way for sinn fein.

That doesn't square with the headscratching Jon witnessed in Parnell Square. SF accept it was a failure.

ateam

brianthebard wrote:

Back on topic then, why did SF ever think they were going to gain seats this election? They didn't present anything new or unique to the electorate, their president was shown to have a very shaky grasp of matters, on the TV debate, and they are still, whether you like it or not, an overwhelmingly one issue party. Furthermore, the smaller parties in general had the deluded notion that they were going to gain seats, even though it was clear that FG was on the rise, FF would be fairly steady and labour are, well labour. (it takes a lot to shake their voters imo). In short any seats up for grabs were between the big three players and the smaller parties didn't seem to know it.

Although I agree, the opinion polls consistently showed increased support for the Greens and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein were put at around 9 or 10% in every pre election poll, right up to the last week. What happened to them?

yomchi

murphaph wrote:

That doesn't square with the headscratching Jon witnessed in Parnell Square. SF accept it was a failure.

Disaster is the word I used!

is_that_so

Jon wrote:

A couple of reasons, the figures received in the 2004 locals, the perception that they were on a cusp of a wave after the settlement in the North, the IRA initiatives and a 'great' election strategy. I was in Parnell square today and there is still some head scratching going on!

Local elections are notorious for very low turnouts and throwing up protest votes( give them a bloody nose syndrome). For some reason the electorate don't register that local elections can actually have even more impact on their lives. Councils after all are the ones who determine zoning and local planning issues,as well as providing services.

K-9

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

Well here are my crude figures for the Donegal & Dublin constituencies. The Donegal ones show some very good indications for the future for SF, the Dublin ones not so good. The move away from 4 & 5 seaters is hurting the smaller parties including SF.

Donegal NE 9.93% 17.47% +7.54%
Donegal SW 10.75% 21.23% +10.48%
Dub Central 14.61% 9.19% -5.42%
Dub Midwest 6.52% 9.27% +2.75%
Dub North 3.07% 2.66% -0.41%
Dub NC 5.74% 3.78% -1.96%
Dub NE 10.24% 13.34% +3.1%
Dub NW 18.28% 15.74% -2.54%
Dub South 3.93% 3.01% -0.92%
Dub SC 12.7% 10.15% -2.55%
Dub SW 20.29% 12.61% -7.68%
Dub SE 7.29% 4.72% -2.57%
Dub West 8.02% 4.78% -3.24%

In Donegal SW FF went up 8.44% as well. The factor here was Gildea's independent vote from 2002 being split evenly between natural FF voters and protest voters, which SF gained. There is a definite chance of them gaining in the next election as FG do not appear to have a strong candidate to replace Dinny McGinley who will not be running again but again they will also need to get more transfers to do this.

In Donegal NE, local politics was a factor in the SF vote. FF ran 3 candidates and had more or less the same vote as last time with 2 candidates. SF seemed to have gained some of the Blayney/Inishowen votes. Again transfers where poor especially when you consider that the SF candidate and FF candidate who was eliminated are from Inishowen.

Looking at it objectively there is no guarentee that they are going to gain the 2 Donegal seats next time. They definitely need to get more voter appeal so that they can gain transfers.

colindkavanagh

I don't understand why people constantly refer to SF as a one issue party, its simply not true. They have a very clear and detailed manifesto, yes a United Ireland is a main goal of the party, people say its never going to happen, Bertie says it will happen in his lifetime (why do people vote for him?). Their manifesto and their policy deals adequately with a number of issues, particulary transport, health-care, housing, immigration etc. They've backed down on the corporate tax issue (not something I'm entirely happy with but live in the real world), they also deal substanitially with equality particulary for women, eldery, lgbt community etc. No doubting that there campaign was disapointing, but they lost a lot on transfers and I think in five years time this will be less of an issue, people in the south of the island will be able to see that they are more than capable of governing successfully in the north of the island and I think we will see a substantial swing in their favour. For most voters, I believe the IRA is not an issue, they organisation has disbanded and is no longer in existence, in five years time this fact will be even more cemented. McDowell and the PD's were Sinn Féin's biggest enemy, where is he/they now??

K-9

colindkavanagh wrote:

McDowell and the PD's were Sinn Féin's biggest enemy, where is he/they now??

Probably in Govt. Actually SF & and PD's had similar bad campaigns mainly because of the 2 1/2 parties taking a lot of their policies and having 2 party leaders who campaigned badly.

Rock Climber

colindkavanagh wrote:

McDowell and the PD's were Sinn Féin's biggest enemy, where is he/they now??

A private citizen languishing with the 94% of the rest of the private citizenry who didn't vote Sinn Féin ?

Villain

colindkavanagh wrote:

McDowell and the PD's were Sinn Féin's biggest enemy, where is he/they now??

He is defeated and retired from Politics. They are begging FF for a lifeline after loosing 6 seats in the election, thats 5 more than Sinn Fein lost and they now have half the number of seats of Sinn Fein, but they haven't gone away you know

Liam Byrne

irish1 wrote:

He is defeated and retired from Politics. They are begging FF for a lifeline after loosing 6 seats in the election, thats 5 more than Sinn Fein lost and they now have half the number of seats of Sinn Fein, but they haven't gone away you know

So what you're saying is that the PDs are fighting for their lives after having a run-in with Sinn Fein ? Familiar territory for many, then, I guess.....

It's odd, though - most of the posts are implying that Sinn Fein should be given a shot at running the country; no-one is saying they'd be the best at it, no-one is saying they'd do anything - just that they deserve (somehow) to be given a go at it.

Even if they DIDN'T have a recent history that disgusts the majority of the country, this isn't exactly a compelling argument in favour of electing them, now is it ?

Even FG lost out because people didn't seem to think THEY had enough experience; and that's without the baggage of their party leader being photographed with criminals and obstructing justice.

Mind you, to be fair, Bertie has been seen to do at least half of that last statement, both in terms of payments and Shannon Airport, so I guess it isn't THAT much of an issue with stuff like that.

murphaph

colindkavanagh wrote:

I don't understand why people constantly refer to SF as a one issue party, its simply not true. They have a very clear and detailed manifesto, yes a United Ireland is a main goal of the party, people say its never going to happen, Bertie says it will happen in his lifetime (why do people vote for him?). Their manifesto and their policy deals adequately with a number of issues, particulary transport, health-care, housing, immigration etc. They've backed down on the corporate tax issue (not something I'm entirely happy with but live in the real world), they also deal substanitially with equality particulary for women, eldery, lgbt community etc.

They didn't cost their manifesto. It's meaningless without costing it. I can promise the sun moon and stars, but I must be able to at least attempt to prove I can pay for it. People will never take SF seriously until they cost their election manifestos.

colindkavanagh wrote:

No doubting that there campaign was disapointing, but they lost a lot on transfers and I think in five years time this will be less of an issue, people in the south of the island will be able to see that they are more than capable of governing successfully in the north of the island and I think we will see a substantial swing in their favour.

How will we know they have been succesful in Northern Ireland? Northern Ireland is a heavily subsidised region of the United Kingdom. They are in an assembly devolved some powers to it by Westminster, which has supreme authority over it. SF will have no say in serious fiscal matters. They will basically (along with their unionist colleagues in government) get to decide how to spend british money. This is not proof of any sort of fiscal competence-a prerequisite for good government. If Northern Ireland was independent we coulf judge SF in government, but it has its lifeline.

colindkavanagh wrote:

For most voters, I believe the IRA is not an issue, they organisation has disbanded and is no longer in existence, in five years time this fact will be even more cemented.

Agreed in the main.

colindkavanagh wrote:

McDowell and the PD's were Sinn Féin's biggest enemy, where is he/they now??

They weren't their biggest enemy. Their own ineptitude in southern politics is their biggest enemy.

Marathon Man

Like the Terminator Sinn Fein will be back. But unlike the Terminator they won't be packing M16 assault rifles. Now that there is peace the whole issue of 'the troubles' shouldn't even be brought up. Sinn Fein is a vibrant, dynamic party with many councilors, td's and supporters who are university educated and have no links whatsoever to the campaign in Northern Ireland. Failure to acknowledge this is just ridiculousness.

Liam Byrne

Marathon Man wrote:

Now that there is peace the whole issue of 'the troubles' shouldn't even be brought up.

Excuse me ? Who decided that ? There were lots of activities that were overlooked because of "the troubles" and ok, that's something we have to live with, including the early release of those caught for such crimes. But likewise there were many, many activities whose perpetrators were never caught.

In addition, at least SOME of SF's supporters and members are of the mindset that violence and crime are OK, and if you look at some of the other forums where atrocities like Gerry McCabe, etc, are dicussed, you'll see a sickening concoction of vile opinions. Since parties are meant to represent their supporters, that implies that at least some of those opinions are likely to surface again.

Sinn Fein is a vibrant, dynamic party with many councilors, td's and supporters who are university educated and have no links whatsoever to the campaign in Northern Ireland.

Agreed. It appears that some people have short memories and have fast-tracked SF into acceptability. Likewise, some people have even shorter memories when it comes to remembering who gave them money; I wouldn't be in support of either of those two camps.

Failure to acknowledge this is just ridiculousness.

I didn't fail to acknowledge it, and I'm not tarring all SF supporters with the same brush (although I genuinely can't understand what they see in the party); I will gladly acknowledge that SF has some of those supporters, but it is equal "ridiculousness" to imply that those are the only supporters that it has and that "the troubles" can't even be brought up as a measure of what the remainder are like.

Why do you think that child abusers are put on a register, even though it might appear that they have reformed ? Is a potential neighbour not allowed to bring up "the troubles" from their past ?

And as stated above, SF does not offer the general public anything concrete in terms of policy; all violent and criminal tendencies and sympathies aside, they have some - uncosted - ideas, but if FG aren't experienced enough for Government, SF definitely aren't.

getthegarglein

PH01 wrote:

With Crowe about to lose his seat in Dublin South West, where has it all gone wrong for Sinn Fein?

here's my two cents

i think sinn fein has been affected by their success in the northern peace process. i feel voters in the south may be feeling that the north is no longer an issue and so voting sf as a complaint to the govt's handling of the north no longer applies.
Also, as the economy is clearly (i feel) the main issue of the election maybe people are looking more closely at the economic policies of all the parties. Perhaps the electorate did not have confidence in sinn fein on this issue (i, as a usual shinner voter, and socialist, did not think they came across convincing myself) and maybe felt that sinn fein had just 'made up' their economic polices for the southern election (e.g. i'm sure it'd be hard for a lot of people to have confidence in people who have for years been one issue driven, suddenly talking about economic issues). Regarding the polls showing ten per cent up to the last week, i reckon it was the undecideds who turned that into 6.9

K-9

getthegarglein wrote:

here's my two cents

i think sinn fein has been affected by their success in the northern peace process. i feel voters in the south may be feeling that the north is no longer an issue and so voting sf as a complaint to the govt's handling of the north no longer applies.

The North was a very strong card for FF, probably why the opposition never made it an issue. FG daren't say they would have done it better. FF probably got some credit if it was as an issue, as they brought opposing sides together.

Marathon Man

Liam Byrne wrote:

Is a potential neighbour not allowed to bring up "the troubles" from their past ?

I see where your coming from but as i said a lot of new members of Sinn Fein have no links whatsoever to the troubles. It seems to me that it is often used as a cop out by people who cannot find any other good reason to accept Sinn Fein.

Marathon Man

Liam Byrne wrote:

Agreed. It appears that some people have short memories and have fast-tracked SF into acceptability. Likewise, some people have even shorter memories when it comes to remembering who gave them money

It seems that many supporters of FF have short memories regarding who gave them money as evidenced by the recent debacle surrounding the Taoiseach to name just one example. There are lots more.

CiDeRmAn

I guess the change in the Rep Ireland vote relfected the change politics Ulster too, down here, a swing away from the edges towards a main 3 party state, FF, FG and Labour, up the north you got a swing to the fringes, to SF and the DUP. SF and their politics is socialist and have little in common with FF aside from both having republican aspirations, in fact SFs socialist manifesto makes it closer to LAbour than anyone else, no?
Sinn Feins vote down here simply evaporated as they were depending on a non existent desire for a change in the status quo, many, including myself expected the public to vote for a change in leadership, but that was not forthcoming and so SF missed out as voters who would have once seen their 1 or 2 go to a SF or PD, depending on their persuasion, instead voted for FF or FG, thereby ruining the best laid plans of Mr. Adams and Mc. Dowell.
However, I get the impression thatthis may be a one trick pony, certainly for FF, I don't see a FF lead by Mr. Cowen, however an accomplished politician he may be, attracting the sort of non die hard support, that touch Bertie has with folk is charisma and I can't see Cowen being as good at it, as a result it will be all to play for next time.
Plus, by then, SF will, presumably, have a successful track record in running affairs in Ulster, in concert with its assembly partners. Success in working with diametric opposites like the DUP could highlight them as a less frightnening prospect for a party in the south to choose as a governmental partner to form a Dail, should be interesting.

One other problem for SF is their apparent desire to offer anything and everything to everyone, for example to the nurses in their recent dispute, but without offering any manner of describing how these funds would be raised, matters like that only serves to undermine their actual credibility as a potential political partner.

horseflesh

What happened to Sinn Fein??

Isn't it obvious?
Most of the pondlife who would vote for them (and probably said so in pre-election polls) simply didn't bother to vote, and probably never will.
Thankfully.

is_that_so

SF are likely to remain a fringe left wing party. Unfortunately this is the same area that the Greens drift into and they are a more attractive proposition. SF's natural supporters, excluding those with long memories are the disaffected and within that group the young. The problem with the disaffected is that they do not always vote nor do they remain young.

They can end up morphing into "Breakfast Roll Man"(Ivan Yeats). He in turn has prospered or wants to prosper and wants better for his kids. They too have aspirations to move up into the middle class and when SF come calling they can find that the support has moved on to the centre.

A further factor to consider is that as a population ages it also tend to become conservative in nature.

That said it doesn't necessarily mean the disappearance of SF as an entity but unless they need to show up with real policies next time out and not depend on past glories, this will become a reality.
I can see much soul searching for them and some of the other losers in the election.

Liam Byrne

Marathon Man wrote:

It seems that many supporters of FF have short memories regarding who gave them money as evidenced by the recent debacle surrounding the Taoiseach to name just one example. There are lots more.

That's precisely what I was saying......so basically, I wouldn't vote for FF because of that, but likewise I definitely wouldn't vote for SF either - and indeed, if I had no choice, I'd vote for FF first, because their crimes (or, to be precise, the crimes of some of their members which appear to have been condoned by the overall party) were of a much lesser magnitude. But thankfully, there were other, better, options so that choice didn't arise.

Marathon Man wrote:

it seems to me that it is often used as a cop out by people who cannot find any other good reason to accept Sinn Fein.

There is no "cop-out" required. If someone joins a party who has those views, they are associating themselves with those views by their own choice, and will be judged accordingly. The fact is that I don't need an "excuse" not to vote for SF - they've given me plenty of reasons not to. If I don't agree with the views of a party, I don't need an "excuse" not to vote for them; and Gerry Adams' stance on a couple of major issues disgusts me. That's not my fault - it's his.....and given some of the bile that I've read, Gerry Adams' views are moderate in terms of what many SF supporters view as acceptable....

Likewise, Bertie couldn't come on here and say that I was looking for an excuse not to vote for him; he's given me plenty of reasons not to - incompetence of the ministers that he appointed, seemingly dodgy deals, at the very least evasive and conflicting answers to straightforward questions.

So claiming that SF have some God-given right to support, and that people like me are looking for "excuses" not to vote for them is, quite frankly, pathetic - political parties are meant to give us reasons to vote for them; since we're all human and will never 100% agree with a party's views, we then weigh up the pros and cons.

And when it comes to SF, the abbreviations "pro" and "con" tend to be pretty apt.

Húrin

is_that_so wrote:

SF are likely to remain a fringe left wing party. Unfortunately this is the same area that the Greens drift into and they are a more attractive proposition.

How have the Greens ever been a fringe left party? If you had to rate them they're probably to the right of Labour, ffs.

is_that_so

H&#250 wrote: »

How have the Greens ever been a fringe left party? If you had to rate them they're probably to the right of Labour, ffs.

I think I used the word "fringe" and "left" in relation to SF and "drift" in relation to the Greens. I never classified them as such.
My point is that they are more attractive as a protest party to some left leaning voters.

Mick86

Rock Climber wrote:

QFT!

Though I commented on that ot part myself lets go back on topic now and discuss why SF fell 6 seats short of expectations...

I think that the election was won and lost on the economy. FF was seen as the party most likely to maintain our prosperity whilst SF's economic policies are seen to be disastrous.

It's interesting to note that of the 5 sitting SF TDs, 3 of them lost support

O'Snodaigh 12.7% (2002) 10.15% (2007)
Ferris 24.24% (2002) 20.43% (2007)
Crowe 20.29% (2002) 12.16% (2007)

The two others increased their vote

O'Caolain 17.51% (2002) 20.01% (2007)
Morgan 14.95% (2002) 15.04% (2007)

Obviously in 4 of these 5 SF supporting constituencies Must Try Harder is the message from the elctorate. Switching their Poster Girl Mary Lou from Dublin West to Dublin Central was also a major mistake. SF's share fell by 5.42% in this constituency.