What's Happened to Sinn Fein!!!

Victor Meldrew

axer wrote:

how are they acting undemocratically at the moment?
Whens the last time they have condoned violence. They have moved on from that. They are trying to move on from the past.
IIRC they have stated their support for the policing up north.
There are very few parties on this island that are not suspiciously funded. I don't see how that makes them any worse than either FF or FG in that regard.

All valid points, on the first one, SF canvasers were reportidly intimidating Ester Uzell who was standing on an anti-SF ticket.

On the other points, time will tell, as i said, they are in Rehab

yomchi

Victor Meldrew wrote:

All valid points, on the first one, SF canvasers were reportidly intimidating Ester Uzell who was standing on an anti-SF ticket.

On the other points, time will tell, as i said, they are in Rehab

Victor, stop posting here say and basing all your opinion on what a news papers says. Please!

Victor Meldrew

Jon wrote:

Victor, stop posting heresay and basing all your opinion on what a news papers says. Please!

Don't assume that posters are just parroting what they read. I did not hear any rebuttal of the allegations made in the Herald from SF, I also know that historically this was a big issue in canvasing in Ireland (before SF ever contested an election mind....)


On a general point, just because I occupy the opposite end of political the spectrum to you it does not make my opinions less valid. I recognise that SF are dragging a very broad church into southern politics, and this election's result for SF and the TV debates that preceded it threw up some interesting policy and personality based issues which are worthy of debate.

Smarmore

Jon wrote:

I think you'll find you are waisting your time replying to such nonsense, there are a few posters here who will post anything they deem to be factual withouth having the required knowledge to sustain the debate.
Most of these threads end up with the piss takers.. well, taking the piss!

That's a very valid point Jon!!

Btw a lot of people base their opinions on what newspapers say. Did you not just attempt to start a new thread on the basis of a newspaper report?

Mad Finn

Potted history of Sinn Fein since 1960.

Republican movement imbibes internationalist socialist ideology much in vogue in the 1960s. Produces analysis of NI situation to match.

1969 NI blows up. Unprepared republican army loses face following inability to defend catholic ghettoes. Working class prods killing working class taigs doesn't match class-based anticapitalist analysis.

1970-71 Movement splits between leftie Official movement and ultra nationalist provos.

1972 Leftie Official movement calls a cease fire after their "analysis" leads them to do such unpopular things as blow up some cleaning ladies in Aldershot and shoot a Catholic soldier home on leave from Germany to see his mother in Derry, both in supposed retaliation for bloody Sunday.

1972-2000 Official movement takes left-wing agenda for a trot and end up as quasi-unionist anti-republican bread and butter issues working class party that goes through a series of splits and name changes (Sinn Fein Gardiner Place-Official Sinn Fein-Sinn Fein Republican Clubs-Sinn Fein the Workers' Party-The Workers Party-Democratic Left) before it ends up in its rightful home......THE LABOUR PARTY.

Provos take ultra nationalist line for as far as they can, stirring up hatred of "The Brits", the "orange State", The "Free State" etc before they wise up, abandon abstentionism, realise that the SDLP and Fine Gael were right at Sunningdale in 1973 and finally do a devolution deal in 2007, much in the same way that De Valera stirred up a civil war, refused to recognise the Free State, recognised the Free State, took the oath, joined the Dail and came to power in 1932.

History will repeat itself. There is little hope for Sinn Fein as a small independent party. They will eventually merge with the big party they most closely resemble in their more civilised moments, namely......FIANNA FAIL.

I give it 9 years max. Just before 1916 centenary.

axer

Victor Meldrew wrote:

I did not hear any rebuttal of the allegations made in the Herald from SF, I also know that historically this was a big issue in canvasing in Ireland (before SF ever contested an election mind....)

You do realise that you cannot win against the media. Nobody can take on the media and come out looking the better person whether the allegations were they are right or not.

Time Magazine

Jaysis it would have been fantastic had you'd read what I'd actually written and not what you thought I'd said.

Let's just have a reminder, shall we?

Ibid wrote:

Ye know well the disaffected Celtic jersey wearing yobs vote for SF in far greater percentages than the average guy on the street.

So let's take this little by little in case I'm accused of being a bloody bigot. I said that the "disaffected Celtic jersey wearing yobs..." (and this was a generalisation of a specific subset of scumbags, much like someone using the word "suits" to describe middle-class white-collar workers) "...vote for SF in far greater percentages than the average guy on the street."

In a fairly recent poll, Sinn Féin got 6.9% of the vote. The above statement, when translated into text that is really, really hard to be mis-interpreted, means more than 6.9% of these scumbags (who vote - note that the 6.9% figure is of those who voted) vote for Sinn Féin.

Where is the generalisation?

FTA69 wrote:

Yobs don't vote at all.

You say something like this, which is completely untrue and continue with...

your uninformed, bigoted nonsense

Surely it's uninformed to say "yobs don't vote at all"? As for bigoted, how the hell is it bigoted to say more than 6.9% of voting yobs vote for SF? Do you think it's less than that?

In fact most people who vote for SF are normal people from working class areas, although judging by your uninformed, bigoted nonsense above I'd imagine you tar everyone from such backgrounds as the same.

Judging from your uninformed, ridiculous, trigger-happy mis-interpretation of my post, I think you're making assumptions of my socioeconomic background. Which you know nothing of. I know very well most people who vote for SF are normal people from working-class areas. I never said anything different.

Okay, next up.

chopperbyrne wrote:

Most Celtic supporting idiots don't vote at all.

I don't know the exact figure, but I imagine you're right. But in the same breath, only sixtysomething percent of the total electoral voted this time around and we use the percentage of votes cast as the proxy for support. Are you suggesting that less than 6.9% of "Celtic supporting idiots" that exercise their right vote for Sinn Féin?

He is in no way a scumbag.

I never said all Celtic fans were scumbags. In fact I think I have one! In the same way not all "suits" are stuck-up c*nts, and I went out of my way to distinguish between Celtic fans, Sinn Féin supporters, scumbags... in fact my exact words were "disaffected Celtic jersey wearing yobs" which I think can be pretty clearly identified from a) my Dad in a Celtic jersey, or b) my friend who votes for Sinn Féin.

Blackjack wrote:

That's a fairly narrow minded point of view and unlike you from what I have read of your posts normally. I know a number of people who would vote Sinn Fein but would never wear a Celtic Jersey in a million years.

What's narrow-minded? I made no implication about Sinn Féin voters of Celtic fans. I clearly specific the knacker-types that parade around with the national flag trailing out of their arse and said that they, too, vote for Sinn Féin. How is that unreasonable? SF say themselves they appeal to the people angry at the system etc., I suggested that if they lose their momentum they could lose this section of their vote. Now it might be 80% of their vote, it might 40% of their vote, it might be 10% of their vote, it might be 0.1% of their vote, I don't know. But these lads vote for SF, when they vote, in a greater quantity than 6.9%. Surely, despite the lack of empirical evidence on that, that it's a reasonable conclusion?

Jon wrote:

Ibid, I felt I had to report that post.

I'm sorry you felt that way, but you're wrong in your interpretation.

Your generalisation of SF voters is galling to say the least.

There was no such generalisation, as I think I've pointed out at this stage. Take yourself, who I presume is still a SF a voter. I don't know you personally but from what I gather from your posts you're not the sort to petrol bomb the guards. Had I said that I should have been banned. TBH I think the reason I wasn't banned is that the mods read my post word for word and realised I wasn't inferring such a thing.

But I would be interested in what you define as 'scum'? Working class voters? Single mothers? People receiving welfare?

Yes, all of the working-class, single mothers and social welfare recipients are scum :rolleyes:. Come on now, who's making the assumptions/generalisation? I would be probably considered working class, though I'm sort of in the middle of that territory (Leixlip). Being a single-mother doesn't make you a thug. I receive social welfare.

Jon wrote:

This protest was organised by RSF not Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein members were instructed to stay away from this protest. Hence NO Sinn Fein members were arrested.

I never said SF members.

Thise disaffected celtic jersey wearing yobs DONT VOTE, are apolitical, and neanderthal at best.

I disagree with the don't vote thing. For a number of reasons I didn't canvass this time around, but from what I gather from friends all around the city and indeed the country that they do. Why else would they trash PD HQ? Did you watch the bit of the video where the tables were thrown through the PD windows? They weren't RSF lads (I'd be able to recognise them if they were... all 4 of them ), they were thugs. But they knew who the PDs were and where their offices were and targetted them specifically. For me, it's far more unreasonable to fob it off and assume they're apoltical rather than accept they are political. In general RSF don't run candidates. Some of these glorious republicans attacking our police were from e.g. Mary Lou's constituency. Who do you think they'd vote for? Paschal Donohue?

Mrs Doyle wrote:

We wont give Sinn Fein a chance, because of their dodgy past, tainted by criminal dealings.

Yet we all vote for Fianna Fail in our droves, DESPITE, their dodgy, criminal past.

What about those of us who not only do not vote for FF, but actively seek to have them ousted for power? I despise the wink wink, nudge nudge mentality in FF - who says I have to give SF a chance? Who says I'm acting the hypocrite? And by the way I've said it before, and I'm sure I'll have to say it again, I hate that argument! Simply because one party is bad is NOT justification for another party being bad. The SF tactic of responding to "You guys killed civilians" is "Well so did the Allies in WWII", which, let's face is, isn't very comparable.

yomchi

Smarmore wrote:

That's a very valid point Jon!!

Btw a lot of people base their opinions on what newspapers say. Did you not just attempt to start a new thread on the basis of a newspaper report?

very different, this was breaking national news about the leader of this state. Victor continuously posts about events or supposed events without a thread of evidence and not even a link, and in most cases is factually in correct. I mean the Herald? - Independant news papers are no fan of SF so I wouldn't believe a word written by them.
Just as a side note, I remember when the break through in the peace process happened a few years back when Trimble went into power first, the worlds media ran the headlines of how a great day it was for the people of the north, what did the Herald write? I'll never forget it...

"IRA man beats dog to death"

The Herald is a rag and shouldn't be used by ay means as a voice of fact.

yomchi

Ibid,
Fair enough, I wasn't intending on getting you banned. It seemed you were generalising, at least you clarified your point.

Victor Meldrew

Jon wrote:

Victor continuously posts about events or supposed events without a thread of evidence and not even a link, and in most cases is factually in correct. I mean the Herald? - Independant news papers are no fan of SF so I wouldn't believe a word written by them.
The Herald is a rag and shouldn't be used by ay means as a voice of fact.

I'm no fan of O'Reilly rags either, I picked up on the Herald thing on this very forum, but in the interest in harmony , I'll confine my sources to the Irish news and An poblacht in future, as they are probably the only sanctioned sources available. You will also note that I qualified my comments on harassing canvasers with references to other parties doing similar things back whe the civil war was really re-fought every election time.

As long as you don't expect me to read the guardian we'll all get on fine..

A Dub in Glasgo

A poster makes some allegations that he fails to substantiate and wonders why people pull him up on it!

The vast majority of Celtic fans I know do not vote for SF

murphaph

Does anyone know the percentage increase or decrease in each constituency where they fielded candidates this time and last time? It's not much use posting "up 1000 votes" on last time tbh as the other candidates might be up 2000 and so on. You need a percentage increase or decrease to see the true picture. I don't think SF collapsed, but I think this was their big chance and it didn't happen for them. NI is already "yesterday's news" down here.

A Dub in Glasgo

Well here are my crude figures for the Donegal & Dublin constituencies. The Donegal ones show some very good indications for the future for SF, the Dublin ones not so good. The move away from 4 & 5 seaters is hurting the smaller parties including SF.

Donegal NE 9.93% 17.47% +7.54%
Donegal SW 10.75% 21.23% +10.48%
Dub Central 14.61% 9.19% -5.42%
Dub Midwest 6.52% 9.27% +2.75%
Dub North 3.07% 2.66% -0.41%
Dub NC 5.74% 3.78% -1.96%
Dub NE 10.24% 13.34% +3.1%
Dub NW 18.28% 15.74% -2.54%
Dub South 3.93% 3.01% -0.92%
Dub SC 12.7% 10.15% -2.55%
Dub SW 20.29% 12.61% -7.68%
Dub SE 7.29% 4.72% -2.57%
Dub West 8.02% 4.78% -3.24%

gurramok

Regarding the Dub constituencies, a factor in the reduced 'Left' vote has been the migration of people from other areas to the thousands of new builds in traditional left leaning constituencies in the last 5 years.

I've noticed this in my own constituency of Dub NW where there has been vast building of new apt blocks where your average punter cannot afford to live in locally and hence leave the area.

From '97-'02, the migration was on a smaller scale as the construction boom was really just starting.
A prime example of this since '02 is Joe Higgnis loss, his left base has been diluted by affluent voters in new builds who wouldn't dream of voting for a left party but instead headed for FF/FG.

murphaph

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

Well here are my crude figures for the Donegal & Dublin constituencies. The Donegal ones show some very good indications for the future for SF, the Dublin ones not so good. The move away from 4 & 5 seaters is hurting the smaller parties including SF.

Donegal NE 9.93% 17.47% +7.54%
Donegal SW 10.75% 21.23% +10.48%
Dub Central 14.61% 9.19% -5.42%
Dub Midwest 6.52% 9.27% +2.75%
Dub North 3.07% 2.66% -0.41%
Dub NC 5.74% 3.78% -1.96%
Dub NE 10.24% 13.34% +3.1%
Dub NW 18.28% 15.74% -2.54%
Dub South 3.93% 3.01% -0.92%
Dub SC 12.7% 10.15% -2.55%
Dub SW 20.29% 12.61% -7.68%
Dub SE 7.29% 4.72% -2.57%
Dub West 8.02% 4.78% -3.24%

Thanks. Much more interesting figures. Do they take account of (for example) if SF ran 1 candidate the last time and 2 this time, if they did that at all?

I would suggest that perhaps many people have migrated to Donegal from L/Derry, thus boosting SF's vote there. This migration may be exhibited in the other border counties, but I don't see this 'sphere of influence' extending very far beyond the border. The Dublin figures tell a sorry tale for SF. I wouldn't say this is the end for SF but they'll have to do a lot of changing before becoming votable for your average middle class punter.

I wonder if NI was independent and had to support itself would people vote for a party such as SF. It's easy to vote for them when you know the brirish taxpayer will pick up the tab for things regardless of how poorly they run the economy. There is a very different choice to be made either side of the border when one comes to vote.

Victor Meldrew

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

The move away from 4 & 5 seaters is hurting the smaller parties including SF.

Thanks, Useful Post and I agree, just one question, what has the transfer been like this time for SF? That's where the seats lie, and a better indicator of real breakthroughs in future elections. also , and this one's to SF activists out there (Jon??) Why did SF run one candidate in Dub SW and 2 in dub south (Treacy and Nic Chormaic who polled poorly, but that's to be expected there).

Mad Finn

what about the performance of Esther Uzell in Dublin south east?

This is an interesting one. This woman claims, rightly or wrongly, that the IRA murdered her brother for personal reasons. So she stood against Daithi Doolan, not one of Sinn Fein's brightest hopes for a seat right enough.

She got 600 votes on her own, as compared with Doolan's 1600.

So a lone independent woman with no resources gets a sizable share of the vote as compared with the representative of a (ahem) well funded national political party.

Whether or not you believe Ms Uzell about the identity of her brother's killer, there was no reason to vote for her other than to say "**** off SF/IRA".

And 600 people took up that option as a first preference.

(PS I wasn't one of them)

Victor Meldrew

Just thought this was interesting as a rough gauge of "how popular parties are beyond their core vote"

At first it looks like SF's Transfer problem is the cause,

Seats share of vote % Seats per % of vote
FF 78 41.6% 1.88
FG 51 27.3% 1.87
Lab 20 10.1% 1.98
Green 6 4.7% 1.28
SF 4 6.9% 0.58
PD 2 2.7% 0.74

Any thoughts

P.S., the figs are from rte.ie

Tar.Aldarion

Mm, look at the difference between sf and labur, seats and % of vote.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Victor Meldrew

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

Mm, look at the difference between sf and labur, seats and % of vote.

Yep,

in my effort to keep the thread on track, SF's vote is up, but they are not translating it into seats. If you were SF's strategists where would you be tweaking policy and PR initiatives? I'm genuinally curious about the whole SF movement as it's different and becoming increasingly relevent in southern politics.

Victor Meldrew

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Diddn't do that one, I think 2002 was a transfer dog for FG, hence the meltdown..

Voipjunkie

Just a thought but I noticed that people here are saying that SF needs to change to become more middle class friendly and less transfer repellant.

Is it not true that SF have started down that road ie the change in their tax policies the peace process backing the PSNI going for candidates like MLM and that they are falling between 2 stools they are still viewed as too radical or dangerous by the settled middle class but the whiff of sulphur is gone for those that were attracted by the radical dangerous element

Victor Meldrew

Voipjunkie wrote:

the whiff of sulphur is gone for those that were attracted by the radical dangerous element

Thing is they are the only ones with a "whiff sulphur" AND a party machine that has any clout, The various Socialist parties are too small and under resourced to get real traction, but , you are right, how do they grow beyond 7% with a bad transfer rate,

Voipjunkie

Victor Meldrew wrote:

Thing is they are the only ones with a "whiff sulphur" AND a party machine that has any clout, The various Socialist parties are too small and under resourced to get real traction, but , you are right, how do they grow beyond 7% with a bad transfer rate,

Can they move into other areas without losing the 7%

There is a hard left vote out there WP/DL had it during the 80s and 90s and SF have it now but when DL moved to the Labour Party they did not bring the vote with them.
Joe Higgins has it in Dublin West and Clare Daly has it in Dublin North and Finian McGrath has it in Dublin central if you look at the SF vote in these places it is very small if they move to the centre will they just leave the current vote they have behind them for the SP/SWP and independents and have to slog it out with everyone else in the centre is there room in the centre and if they move there why should anyone vote for them rather than the centre they already have why not just join the Labour party as DL eventually had to do.

murphaph

Voipjunkie wrote:

...if they move [to the centre] why should anyone vote for them rather than the centre they already have

Precisely the question I posed some pages back and so we've come full circle. What's different about a centrist or even slightly left of centre SF? The radical stuff has failed. They must change to attract a vote. If they change, change to what? It is actually possible they will stagnate or die like the PDs seem to have done. The PDs are a good comparison (iroically) as back in the day they actually had radical (right) policies but those policies are now accepted as 'normal' and have been absorbed by the mainstream parties. Therefore what place do the PDs occupy? None really. Same question and answer may be there for SF if they change to become more centrist. The hasty abandonment of their old economic policies looks to the electorate like power at any cost is what they want. MLM is this phenomenon personified.

horseflesh

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

The vast majority of Celtic fans I know do not vote for SF

Because they're Scottish?

Pride Fighter

horseflesh wrote:

Because they're Scottish?

Good one!

Tar.Aldarion

I assumed that was his joke.

O'Leprosy

murphaph wrote:

I would suggest that perhaps many people have migrated to Donegal from L/Derry, thus boosting SF's vote there.

Waht's the L before Derry for ya plonker. Where do we get you crowd from ????