So, the PDs...

nesf

Well, the PDs are in serious trouble. Though it'll make the last few counts interesting in a number of constituencies. They've always been at the fringes and a "5th seat" party but it looks like FG have clawed back every voter they lost to them in 2002.

I could see them being brought back into the Government if Bertie feels they'll continue to be good at taking flak away from FF.

Any opinions?

Time Magazine

Looks like they'll get two seats, Harney and Grealish. No government for them tbh.

daveirl

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nesf

Ibid wrote:

Looks like they'll get two seats, Harney and Grealish. No government for them tbh.

Ruling out both O'Malleys and McDowell already? I wouldn't rule out any surprises in Limerick East until after O'Dea's surplus has been distributed tbh.

Nevyn

Honestly it is like people are making tem the scapegoat for FF

The Muppet

I doubt they'll have the numbers to get back. I feel people did vote for change, I did, just not the change everyone expected.

daveirl

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daveirl

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Time Magazine

nesf wrote:

Ruling out both O'Malleys and McDowell already? I wouldn't rule out any surprises in Limerick East until after O'Dea's surplus has been distributed tbh.

I think Gormley will take the seat in DSE. I've been following that all day as it's my adopted home (College) constituency. Also there's a chance of Mick McDowell losing his seat . The majority of the transfers are coming from lefties.

Fiona is coming 9th in her constituency, I think.

Tim O'Malley only got 10% of Willie's transfers last time.

Wouldn't rule it out. But now that my bet that the PDs will get "less than seven" seats is certainly coming true (what a banker that was), I'd be inclined to think absolutely no more than 3.

McDowell might just scrape in.. I can see him getting more transfers then Gormley, but it will be tight!!

nesf

Ibid wrote:

I think Gormley will take the seat in DSE. I've been following that all day as it's my adopted home (College) constituency. Also there's a chance of Mick McDowell losing his seat . The majority of the transfers are coming from lefties.

Oh I agree, I just wouldn't rule out McDowell. Should be interesting to watch though. Both are the kind of men who can pick up transfers from the most unlikely places.

Ibid wrote:

Tim O'Malley only got 10% of Willie's transfers last time.

Wouldn't rule it out. But now that my bet that the PDs will get "less than seven" seats is certainly coming true (what a banker that was), I'd be inclined to think absolutely no more than 3.

O'Malley got a lot of transfers from FF candidates as they went out though as well as from all over the place from Independents. I wouldn't rule him out.

redspider

daveirl wrote:

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I just spotted that Mary Harney is in trouble !

important edit
FF's Moriarty is eliminated next and FG's Fitzgerald is likely thereafter and their distributions could carry the young and inexperienced Joanna Tuffy:

Candidate	Party	%1st Pref Count 1   	2   	3   	4   	5
CURRAN, John*		Elected	23.2  	8650	8650	8650	8650	8650
GOGARTY, Paul*		  	10.8  	4043	4123	4393	5557	6700
TUFFY, Joanna		  	10.9  	4075	4145	4440	4895	6004
HARNEY, Mary*		  	12.5  	4663	4956	5066	5454	5668
FITZGERALD, Frances		12.0  	4480	4532	4680	4975	5344
MORIARTY, Luke	Excluded	9.8  	3671	4200	4333	4666	5185

Now, Overall FF are predicted to get 80 or so seats, and with Ind's it could result in an FF-only government. ie: They wont need the PD's .... who will maybe only have a few TD's and all who are under pressure in their constituencies.

But if Mary Harney fails to return, that will be a big scalp and she could retire from politics!

Redspider

mike65

Anyone fancy a virtual wager (if the worst happens) of a few high profile members being taken in by FF?

Mike.

nesf

redspider wrote:

But if Mary Harney fails to return, that will be a big scalp and she will/should retire from politics!

I think that it would a hard blow to her after the blood, sweat and tears she's put into the Health Service (regardless of your stance on her policies, no one can claim that she wasn't putting in a lot of effort).

redspider

Ibid wrote:

Fiona is coming 9th in her constituency, I think.

Yeah, looks like she wont get enough transfers and Barret from FG will make a seat gain there for them.

The other interesting battle going on there is for the 5th seat between:
BOYD BARRETT, Richard 5233
CUFFE, Ciarán* 4534

Cuffe of the Green's should make it, you would think, but Boyd-Barret has a 700 vote advantage and stranger things have happened in the People's Republic of Dun Laoire.

Dave!

Dublin South East will be very interesting.

AidoCQS

Thaedydal wrote:

Honestly it is like people are making tem the scapegoat for FF

Yes one of the labour guys said there that Ahern uses them as a heat shield, I said it before the election, they had Angola (Health) and Iraq (Justice), were they mad to take those on, It could not have been just arrogance, was that not suicide for such a small party

SeanW

Well, the Progressive Degenerates really aren't much more than a totalitarian-right incarnation of Fianna Fail so their decimation would be a silver lining in todays very dark cloud.

TCollins

nesf wrote:

I think that it would a hard blow to her after the blood, sweat and tears she's put into the Health Service (regardless of your stance on her policies, no one can claim that she wasn't putting in a lot of effort).

And the hard work of trying to rob the pensioners.

FF will be a better party without their PD shield to protect them. It will make them more accountable for any fcuk ups they do.

Dirk Gently

I don't know what to make of the results. I'm glad the PD's are doing badly and it does look like they're being made scapegoat for FF. A little harsh but I wont complain because I'm not a PD fan at all. I am bitterly dissappointed that FF have done so well but my prefered coalition would still be FF with either labour or the greens so might still work out. I was hoping Labour or the greens would insist Bertie stepped down before doing business with a weakened FF but by the looks of it FF seem to have enough of a mandate rule out sacraficing bertie.

My biggest dissapointment is poor oul Joe Higgins not getting returned.
I really hope PD + FF don't have enough to get back in. What will happen co-location if FF need labour?
Mike may have a point about some PD's getting in the FF back door.

redspider

Mary Harney is elected.

Mea Culpa, I thought this was a 3 seater but its a 4 seater (I wish this country would standardize on seats per constituency), so Mary was fairly safe and by call of her demise was incorrect.

Tuffy does get elected though, with 1,000 to spare. The scores on the door are:

FF CURRAN, John* Elected 8650
FG FITZGERALD, Frances excluded 5664
GP GOGARTY, Paul* Elected 7920
PD HARNEY, Mary* Elected 7786
Lab TUFFY, Joanna Elected 6672

ateam

Harney looked flushed on the tv there. But Harney succeeds again. McDowell in real trouble

gandalf

McDowell needs to get 2 to 1 transfers from O'Callaghan compared to Gormley to catch up which is probably not going to happen.

redspider

Tom Parlon admits defeat, before the 1st count is announced!

McDowell in big trouble, will come down to a few votes, maybe less than 100. Between himself and Gormley of GP. Cant be called really and I would expect recounts.

Stark

It will be good not to have to read "McDowell calls for blah blah blah" in the papers anymore.

ateam

Forgetting that this is very important for the Greens. Gormley is after Sergeant, the most prominent figure in the Greens. It would be a real blow on top of a poor showing nationally if Gormley loses.

Crash

Liz O'Donnell goes out. PD's lose another seat.

Dave!

And the Irish public lose some eye candy.

Marshy

gandalf wrote:

McDowell needs to get 2 to 1 transfers from O'Callaghan compared to Gormley to catch up which is probably not going to happen.

Well its being said he got 69% from FF on a previous occasion so it isnt over yet.

Crash

BUT hopefully Anne Marie Martin gets elected.

Stargal

Not to be petty but:

The_Minister two days ago wrote:

I predict around 5/6 seats for the PDs. Minimum. I will apologise if I'm wrong.

Ok, maybe to be a teensy bit petty...