Greens only appeal to city dwellers

jhegarty

I really wouldn't worry, the M3 is going ahead and military flights are still going through Shannon.... they won't have one policy get through the bertie filter.....

Ruen

jmayo wrote:

Would you be willing to increase taxes so you could subsidise the losses farmers would incurr if they went fully organic?

Farmers need to learn that they're no more special than anyone else in this country and the government needs to either stop paying them to sit on their arses or start paying everyone else to sit on their arses

jmayo

Ruen wrote:

Farmers need to learn that they're no more special than anyone else in this country and the government needs to either stop paying them to sit on their arses or start paying everyone else to sit on their arses

Ruen the reason that farmers receive payments is because they are stopped from producing, but obviously you don't know much about farming.
Actually it is the EU that provides most of the farm payments just like it is the EU that probably paid for the road you take to work.

Speaking of paying people to sit on their asses all day and do nothing, maybe we should cut the public sector by 40% because by all accounts that the percentage that do feck all.

All you have added so far to this discussion is pathetic any farming rethoric hoping to get a rise out of people. Have you ever thought about going into the slurry agiation business.

Múinteoir

jmayo wrote:

Carlow Kilkenny has two major urban areas, and one is half full of ex Dubs from what I can see.

Most of Leinster is full of "ex-Dubs" now and places like Meath, Kildare, Wicklow and Louth have a hell of a lot more of them than Carlow-Kilkenny, yet have no Green TD. So the argument that Mary White was just elected by Dublin exiles does not hold water. Especially when you consider the origins of Mary White's political career. Also, even though the Greens are strongest in Dublin, they still only get about 1 vote out of each ten votes cast in Dublin. So only one in ten of Dublin commuters are even likely to vote Green.
Mary White first got elected to Carlow County Council in 1999, in the the very much rural/farming ward of Borris. In fact she topped the poll in the ward in 1999 (see here). She has been elected a councillor twice in a row, almost completely by farmers. Borris is not commuter land.
I know that might be unbelievable for the people who are convinced that the Greens want to exterminate every farmer in the country (farmers elected a Green, shock horror!), but it's fact.
I have no doubt that some of the people who voted for her as TD were commuters/urban voters, but trying to reduce a decade of politic work by Mary White down to getting elected by a few blow ins from Dublin, shows very little understanding of her political base and seems to be based on nothing but anti-Green bias.

nesf

M&#250 wrote: »

Also, even though the Greens are strongest in Dublin, they still only get about 1 vote out of each ten votes cast in Dublin. So only one in ten of Dublin commuters are even likely to vote Green.

No. The demographic in Dublin as a whole and the demographic of the "Dublin commuter" are completely different.


That and, what's the problem if Mary White got elected by "ex-Dubs"? They live there now, they have as much of a say over what TD they should have as any native of the area.

Múinteoir

nesf wrote:

No. The demographic in Dublin as a whole and the demographic of the "Dublin commuter" are completely different.

That may be so, but I think my point still stands. That is, that it should not be assumed that people who move down the country from Dublin will vote Green. Even in Dublin, they are nowhere near being a big party. In fact the Green vote actually dropped in some of the commuter counties since 2002, despite massive movement of commuters out of Dublin in the five year period.

nesf

M&#250 wrote: »

That may be so, but I think my point still stands. That is, that it should not be assumed that people who move down the country from Dublin will vote Green. Even in Dublin, they are nowhere near being a big party.

I agree to a point, but the people moving down are young to middle aged middle class people in general. That's where the core Green (and PD) vote comes from, so you'd expect some rise in support for the Greens in these areas. But as you say they are not a huge party in Dublin to begin with, so you wouldn't expect this up rise to cause Greens to start topping the polls or anything.

Múinteoir

nesf wrote:

I agree to a point, but the people moving down are young to middle aged middle class people in general. That's where the core Green (and PD) vote comes from, so you'd expect some rise in support for the Greens in these areas.

Not necessarily so. The Green vote percentage in Meath for instance, actually dropped since 2002, despite commuters almost doubling the population of Meath in the last five years. FF's vote went up there in 2007!

Grudaire

Greens only appeal to city dwellers

Well I can't see Jackie Healy Ray being elected in Dublin....!

nesf

M&#250 wrote: »

Not necessarily so. The Green vote percentage in Meath for instance, actually dropped since 2002, despite commuters almost doubling the population of Meath in the last five years. FF's vote went up there in 2007!

Well, 2007 was a very bad year for small parties so that could have a lot to do with it. It was a countrywide phenomenon.

Múinteoir

nesf wrote:

Well, 2007 was a very bad year for small parties so that could have a lot to do with it. It was a countrywide phenomenon.

But the point of this thread is that the Greens are a supposed urban only party. The Greens ran their first ever candidate in Cork South-West this time, which is considered primarily rural and conservative. He got nearly 7% of the vote. A number of their candidates in Dublin, where candidates have been running for decades, barely got 3%.

Múinteoir

Cliste wrote:

Well I can't see Jackie Healy Ray being elected in Dublin....!

Change the accent and remove the cap, he's just like many politicians in Dublin. I don't like Jackie Healy-Rae, but he's a lot more clever than many people think. He reminded (mocked) the new Ceann Comhairle John O'Donoghue about the fact that he had been his election agent in three elections, before he ran himself as an independent. And then some people in Dublin see fit to re-elect walking lobotomies like Conor Lenihan.

jmayo

M&#250 wrote: »

Most of Leinster is full of "ex-Dubs" now and places like Meath, Kildare, Wicklow and Louth have a hell of a lot more of them than Carlow-Kilkenny, yet have no Green TD. So the argument that Mary White was just elected by Dublin exiles does not hold water. Especially when you consider the origins of Mary White's political career. Also, even though the Greens are strongest in Dublin, they still only get about 1 vote out of each ten votes cast in Dublin. So only one in ten of Dublin commuters are even likely to vote Green.
Mary White first got elected to Carlow County Council in 1999, in the the very much rural/farming ward of Borris. In fact she topped the poll in the ward in 1999 (see here). She has been elected a councillor twice in a row, almost completely by farmers. Borris is not commuter land.
I know that might be unbelievable for the people who are convinced that the Greens want to exterminate every farmer in the country (farmers elected a Green, shock horror!), but it's fact.
I have no doubt that some of the people who voted for her as TD were commuters/urban voters, but trying to reduce a decade of politic work by Mary White down to getting elected by a few blow ins from Dublin, shows very little understanding of her political base and seems to be based on nothing but anti-Green bias.

But why did FG fail to win a seat is a question? If their vote management was correct then I don't believe a Green candidate woudl have got in.
There are differences between being elected a councillor and a TD, there are many that get elected to Co Council but never make the jump to Dail.
You would not happen to be a member of the Greens by any chance?

And yes I know the natives in places like Naas and Navan feel that they are now in Dublin what with all the dispocessed Dubs in their midst. A result of the screwed up planning in this country.
I am not assuming that all Dubs who move to the country vote for the Greens.

And yes I do have anti-Green party bias, since they decided to sell out their principles and join the regime that they told the electorate that they would have no truck with.
Maybe the party should be renamed the "we sold out" party and the pathetic act of falling on his sword by Sargent was a joke.
Previously they may have had some ideas that were a bit far out and unrealistic, but at least they had principles.
Now they appear to have neither and are just puppets for Bertie.
What did they get from the programme for government, a lot of considers and reviews.
Jeeze even Roche showed them up as inept and without any teeth.

Nightwish

You'd be mistaken to think that Carlow-Kilkenny is full of Dub exiles. Carlow has a few but not as many as to influence an election. Mary White has a sizable core support group in Borris/Mount Leinster area, which is very much a rural area.

Múinteoir

jmayo wrote:

But why did FG fail to win a seat is a question? If their vote management was correct then I don't believe a Green candidate woudl have got in.
There are differences between being elected a councillor and a TD, there are many that get elected to Co Council but never make the jump to Dail.

Why FG didn't win another seat isn't really relevant to this thread. And Mary White took a Labour seat not a FG one, so I don't see how you seem to consider than FG were just pipped for it.
And I don't even understand your second point there. Of course many councillors don't get elected TDs. It happens in every party. How is that relevant to the fact that Mary White did succeed in that regard?

You would not happen to be a member of the Greens by any chance?

I am in fact. But that doesn't make my points any less valid, anymore than a member of any other party putting a point across on this issue. You see, being a member and being familiar with the organisation, I'm well used to picking holes in the bull**** that other parties and their supporters say about us.

jmayo

M&#250 wrote: »

... Of course many councillors don't get elected TDs. It happens in every party. How is that relevant to the fact that Mary White did succeed in that regard?

I am in fact. But that doesn't make my points any less valid, anymore than a member of any other party putting a point across on this issue. You see, being a member and being familiar with the organisation, I'm well used to picking holes in the bull**** that other parties and their supporters say about us.

You made the point that she has been elected a Co Councillor and I make the point because somebody has enough votes in a local area to become a Co Councillor does not always translate into having enough votes over large geographical area to become a TD.

Being a Green Party member, how do you feel about the party entering government and forgetting a number of the party core policies i.e. the use of Shannon, the M3 through Tara, not getting 1 billion for education and entering a government with the evil FF/Bertie and the PDs whose previous leader set out to rubish your party ?

Do you believe you will get the transfers next time from FF rather than this time from FG/Lab voters ?
Will the party suffer like the PDs have ?
I am very interested what your prepective is on these points.

Múinteoir

jmayo wrote:

You made the point that she has been elected a Co Councillor and I make the point because somebody has enough votes in a local area to become a Co Councillor does not always translate into having enough votes over large geographical area to become a TD.

Being a Green Party member, how do you feel about the party entering government and forgetting a number of the party core policies i.e. the use of Shannon, the M3 through Tara, not getting 1 billion for education and entering a government with the evil FF/Bertie and the PDs whose previous leader set out to rubish your party ?

Do you believe you will get the transfers next time from FF rather than this time from FG/Lab voters ?
Will the party suffer like the PDs have ?
I am very interested what your prepective is on these points.

I am very unhappy with the deal. I voted against it. But that siad, I am taking a wait and see approach to it. I am extremely unhappy with the Tara situation but having John Gormley as Environment Minister, who has a lot of powers as regards protecting heritage, means a lot. So again I will wait and see. I certainly feel there was too much compromise, but then again I laugh at certain FGers criticising us for compromising on things they would never have given us either (Shannon stopover is a prime example and FG had no problem with the current M3 route).

As regards transfer, I don't know. I'm open to the possibility that we could be wiped out at the next election, but then again I think the rate of regimented transfers from FG/Labour to us is not as big as is made out.
The fact is, in 2002, with no transfer pact with anyone, we got six seats. In 2007, with Enda Kenny clearly stating that the alternative parties should continue their transfer to the Greens, we still only had six seats (and even there we lost one). So this supposed wave of transfers we got from the alternative that buoyed us up, is clearly not as big as is made out.
The greens may well be massacred electorally next time around. But if they do, it will happen based on their performance in government, not based on FG/Labour voters who feel betrayed (by a party that they had no formal agreement with) and who don't transfer to them anymore. The plain fact is that transfers between FG and Labour themselves, who had a formal pact, were very patchy.

Victor

M&#250 wrote: »

But the point of this thread is that the Greens are a supposed urban only party. The Greens ran their first ever candidate in Cork South-West this time, which is considered primarily rural and conservative. He got nearly 7% of the vote. A number of their candidates in Dublin, where candidates have been running for decades, barely got 3%.

And is a farmer.

Múinteoir

Victor wrote:

And is a farmer.

You've lost me. Who is?

Victor

M&#250 wrote: »

You've lost me. Who is?

Quentin Gargan, the Green Cork South-West candidate.

Múinteoir

Victor wrote:

Quentin Gargan, the Green Cork South-West candidate.

Ah, gotcha!

Jackie laughlin

Is anyone aware of any study on the socio-economic profile of Green voters?

nesf

Jackie laughlin wrote:

Is anyone aware of any study on the socio-economic profile of Green voters?

The exit poll from the last election should give some insight, they asked some background questions as well as for who you voted for I think.

Jackie laughlin

NESF,
Thanks. I seem to recall that you are right. I'll go check.

Victor

nesf wrote:

The exit poll from the last election should give some insight, they asked some background questions as well as for who you voted for I think.

That may have only been to ensure the poll was balanced. They may not have analysed those two factors (background and preferences) together.

Possibly the best source of background data is from the tallies, with individual boxes demonstrating particular biases.

Ruen

jmayo wrote:

Ruen the reason that farmers receive payments is because they are stopped from producing, but obviously you don't know much about farming.
Actually it is the EU that provides most of the farm payments just like it is the EU that probably paid for the road you take to work.

Speaking of paying people to sit on their asses all day and do nothing, maybe we should cut the public sector by 40% because by all accounts that the percentage that do feck all.

All you have added so far to this discussion is pathetic any farming rethoric hoping to get a rise out of people. Have you ever thought about going into the slurry agiation business.

Oh I know they're EU subsidies. I actually agree with you about cutting the public sector. I'm really not interested in getting a rise out of anyone and I can honestly say I've never in all my years even thought about the slurry agitation business.
I dont like farmers.....I suppose I'm a 'farmerist'.

Jackie laughlin

Victor,
Tallies give location information only. That can sometimes give a small amount of socio economic info.