Advice- Time to get out?

zuutroy

Thought I'd found a killer system. Started at 100euro and bet 20% each time. Was going great through 100 bets, but its totally ran out of steam as you can see. Wouldn't mind a fresh pair of eyes looking at my progress and giving me an opinion on whether or not to junk it. Haven't changed a thing, but from 110 on its just been a disaster.

Robin1982

I would have said that the sample size is way too small to draw such conclusions.

macshadow

not enough bets to tell. i think you expect too much,it looks very good to me without knowing any details. was that 20% of the increasing bank? over what time scale was the 150 bets? can you put your finger on anything in the negative results? with such a sharp upward curve why do you not expect some fall off at some point?

the first 110 bets must have been heavily odds on?
when you droped from 1300E to 900E what odds were these bets?

Chucky the tree

Without knowing what your system is its pretty hard for people to comment on. Now obviously your in a catch 22 situation as you dont want everyone to find out.

But i wouldnt write it off just yet, i remeber you saying that it involved football in another thread, your recent results could well be done to that rather then its being a bad system. Betting on teams who have nothing to play for is a huge risk, if you have been doing that cut it out.

Dodge

If its a system thats being going for awhile, just check your still using the same criteria for inclusion. Its easy enough to get cocky and expand selections

BrandonBlock

Is that about 20 losses, 130 wins on your graph? So far your system has worked roughly 87% of the time yes?

Having said that, my advice would be to continue with your system on with your €700 b/r and see how it fairs over say 1,000+ bets. Does it stay around the same percentage?

zuutroy

Hi all, thanks for the advice. The stake is 20% of the increasing bank-roll, and yes it's a heavy odds on bet by playing the correct score market. As you all think the sample size is too small I've decided to continue it, but knock down the stakes a lot, so I've taken 500euro out and I'm gonna play with the remaining 200, just to build up the numbers. I suppose it could be down to end-of-season madness, so I'll give it another while.

Robin1982

Personally I believe that if you are testing out a system then frankly you need to stick with level stakes. If a system is unprofitable with level stakes, then there is no staking plan whatsoever that will make it profitable.

Would it be possible to re-post the graph adjusted to the initial (level) stake?

zuutroy

Robin1982 wrote:

Would it be possible to re-post the graph adjusted to the initial (level) stake?

You mean re-calculate what it would look like if I bet the initial 20euro every time instead of the 20% of the bank value? This is what it would look like in that case:

Robin1982

Its up to you which betting strategy you want to stick with; currently your system is displaying clear profitability and although your recent downturn may be disheartening, its far too early to start questioning the future validity of the system.

Its seems most of the doubt you are experiencing from the drawdowns stem from the nature of your current betting strategy (the losses "hurt" more than the gains).

My advice is to stick with a level-stakes strategy for over 1000 bets if not more. You will have a high confidence level then in the profitability of the system and the likely deviations due to unexpected results. Then you can choose the betting strategy. Sure you may "lose out" on some short-term gains, but take a very long term perspective on this.

zuutroy

Thanks for that! I think its a good idea to look at the long term. I was getting quite tense sticking e250 on a bet without being full sure of the long term profitability of the whole thing. I'll stick with say 30euro until I'm up at the 1000 bet mark and take it from there.

wb

I'd agree with what was said about level stakes. If something does not profit from levels, no staking plan will rescue it. I also feel that 20% stakes is way too high, and never use more than 5% for my own stuff. A big losing run (which always comes eventually) will practically wipe you out with 20%. It probably does not have enough data to go on, so levels is the best advice for now I'd say.