The state of play thus far

zappy

interesting times.

FF - performed brilliantly to keep their vote static. they decided what the campaign was about in the last week and its paid off well. They need to not get too cocky and mess it all up big time, or else i can't see the electorate being too kind if they fail to deliver good public services for a third time. The real work starts here. Got to hand it to them, they polled superbly.

FG - very good result. Its quite ironic that both FF and FG seat predictions are turning out to be broadly true... Needs to build as strongly as possible, and to take advantage of a bigger Dáil representation. Charlie Bird said two days ago that both predictions can't be right, and surprisingly they nearly are.

Labour - meh, not much happened there. Can't win in or out of a pre-election pact. Would be brave to go into gov with FF now, for the sake of, say getting the health portfolio, for example, or keeping SF out.

Greens - done ok, could have done more. Probably should bite the bullet and get in gov with FF.

PDs - now who's 'the left-overs'?. Drastic reorganisation required. They really do need to loose the confrontational attitude.

Sinn Féin - fortunately, not great. Not too bothered with them, tbh.


It seems to me that people who broadly supported both the current gov and the alternative saw how close it was in the polls and decided to back the bigger parties to help their side do best.

I'd say there is an extreme outside chance of the rainbow still happening if they get really really lucky in every seat from here on, and get every independant left involved.

FF are in difficulty in the sense that PDs + independants mightn't make the numbers, what with the both of the latter doing badly. The Green party would be reluctant, and demand a lot. I can see them going into negotations, but with the greens demanding too much for FF. Labour can't win in any situation, can't see them propping up FF gov, tbh, but who know what the next two weeks will hold. FF and Sinn Fein would result in a massive public outcry, and would hurt FF next time. May even be worse than the PDs in gov... FF minority is possible if everyone else (ie, parties left with more than 2 seats!) won't touch them. I wonder if a rainbow minority is possible. Stupid, but possible.

Given how similar the main themes of each of the main manifestoes were, a minority from one side may just be feasible. Economy largely similar. The main issue of disagreement that I can think of would be hospital co-location. Expect co-location, and the children's hospital for that matter, to become major controversies if the status quo remains. Many in the health sector are very uncomfortable with both.

Irish Times poll surprisingly accurate.

regards,

zappy