Green or Labour Coalition?

wb · 25-05-2007 11:53pm #1

I'm a betting man, and I've laid (backed that they will lose) the FF/Labour combo for a lot of bread... Starting to get worried now

Will Rabbite do a deal? Hopefully not from my betfair balance point of view, but they are favourites now.

Sir Oxman · 26-05-2007 12:22am

Greens looking like 7 seats now (OCarlow/Kilkenny) so if FF 77/78 the Greens are now players...

pjbrady1 · 26-05-2007 12:40am

with the complete collapse of the PDs in ten years. Won't Labour/Greens be afraid of touching FF.
There is still a chance of FG/Labour/Green/Indos.

McSpud · 26-05-2007 12:43am

I think the Greens have more to gain than Labour by going into government, Greens get a chance to show they can delivery a bit like the PDs years ago.

Labour would have to lose Rabitte although I think that would be no bad thing as he has clearly run a terrible campaign.

The Sparrow · 26-05-2007 12:44am

I predict FF/ Green coalition. That would be my 1,2 so happy days if it comes true... Although RTE just said Dan Boyle lost his Green seat so maybe that will be a big factor.

wb · 26-05-2007 1:03am

pjbrady1 wrote:

with the complete collapse of the PDs in ten years. Won't Labour/Greens be afraid of touching FF.
There is still a chance of FG/Labour/Green/Indos.

lol. I admire your confidence.

49/1 on betfair for Kenny to be Taoiseach.. that's if you really are that confident

McSpud · 26-05-2007 1:12am

wb wrote:

lol. I admire your confidence.

49/1 on betfair for Kenny to be Taoiseach.. that's if you really are that confident

Mr Kenny said he was not prepared to concede the election until he sees the final outcome.
The party is claiming that along with Labour and the Greens they could end up with 77 seats, against a possible 76 for Fianna Fáil.

Hmmm don't get his logic here. Even if that is correct is he saying he would go in with SF. :eek:

7mountpleasant · 26-05-2007 1:16am

delah wrote:

Greens looking like 7 seats now (OCarlow/Kilkenny) so if FF 77/78 the Greens are now players...

Greens 6 (original post said 5) Fianna Fail 77 me thinks. After the vitiriol that Rabbitte threw at bertie it would be a hard one to stomach as a Fianna Fail supporter. However if Brendan Howlin were to replace Rabbitte then I would be far more enthusiastic (and I think that Howlin is a far more capable politician as well). However my tuppence would be on the greens,pd's and independants if needed going on what RTE are showing

Villain · 26-05-2007 1:18am

I think we are look at Greens 6 and FF 77 so that is very doable

PeakOutput · 26-05-2007 1:37am

labour wont go to ff im almost positive of it....if the greens decide to pull an upset fg/labour/greens could pull it off

The Sparrow · 26-05-2007 1:55am

PeakOutput wrote:

labour wont go to ff im almost positive of it....if the greens decide to pull an upset fg/labour/greens could pull it off

I can`t see how fg/labour/greens could pull it off?? The numbers just don`t add up at the moment. It looks like at a maximum they would have 77 seats so they would still need six seats from somewhere and I`d be fairly confident that there is no hope of the rainbow inviting sinn fein in so they would be relying on independents... Two of which are jackie healy rae and (prob) beverly flynn who are unlikely to side with the rainbow. Plus if I was the greens and I had the choice to form a stable govt or join the rainbow with a rabble of independents my preference would definitely be for FF...

Sorry Rainbow supporters, give it up... It ain`t happening!

7mountpleasant · 26-05-2007 2:21am

Wonder what odds paddy power will give on Pat Rabbite remaining as leader of lab after the party meeting on thurs

axer · 26-05-2007 2:26am

I think the best possible result for this country would be a FF-GP coalition. Actually I would be delighted with that. Thank god the PDs have done so bad. Herr Goebbels McDougal is no more!!!

jmayo · 26-05-2007 10:05am

It owuld be the kiss of death for any party to go in with FF.
Can't see Lab going in, there are too many high ranking ones that will not want it.
Rabitte, Quinn are two big names that would make ministers in any other scenario.
Maybe eejits like Burton would jump at chance.
Howlin is an interesiting one though?

simu · 26-05-2007 11:59am

FF would run rings around the Green Party tbh. The Green's lack of experience v. the shrewdness of FF? No contest.

johnnyrotten · 26-05-2007 12:01pm

FF & Greens

is_that_so · 26-05-2007 12:11pm

The Greens ran as an independent entity and their numbers would be just good enough. Even if they walked FF could look at the PD/Independents to replace it and get through the term.

I suspect that even if Labour might be a preferred option there are questions.

1) Will it happen without Rabbitte-I'd expect him to go rather than do a deal.
2) What would FF do if Labour walked?

In their present state of mind labour might do better to be in opposition to do some serious reflection. If they went into government they might be inclined to look after themselves, and potentially suffer very badly at the next election.

On balance the FF/Green would be better all round, given what we ended up with. I think the Greens stand for something that is bigger than the party, something I am not sure Labour could say at this moment.
It would keep FF honest :rolleyes: and might help introduce some policies that would otherwise never be entertained.

Pherekydes · 26-05-2007 12:13pm

The responsibility for forming the next government lies with the biggest party, and failing that, the two biggest parties, so why not FF/FG?

LP and or the GP would do well to remember what happened to Dick Spring's red tide after coalition with the "Teflon" party and what happened to the PDs after coalition with the "Teflon" party.

Moral: Sh!t doesn't stick to Teflon, but it has to stick to something.

DeepBlue · 26-05-2007 12:13pm

FF/Green is the most likely outcome. The Greens are making all the right noises at the moment.
FF'ers would prefer it as it would mean far less ministries and junior ministries would have to be given to the Greens. Labour would demand more portfolios than the Greens would.

John Gormley made the point last night that you can only do something if you are in power so maybe the temptation will be too great. The Mahon tribunal is around the corner though and there will be a lot of pressure on either coalition if bad news for Bertie/FF comes from the Tribunal.

I wonder how those that normally frequent the FF Galway race tent will greet the news of an FF/Green Government

.

Lennoxschips · 26-05-2007 12:16pm

If Labour go in with FF again they will never receive as much as a preference from me again. They'd be mad to do it, it would be the end of them.

Greens the same. You think FF, funded by the developers, are going to start building sustainable, less profitable, developments because the Greens tell them to? Of course not.

It will probably be FF/PD/Ind minority government.

axer · 26-05-2007 12:26pm

Lennoxschips wrote:

If Labour go in with FF again they will never receive as much as a preference from me again. They'd be mad to do it, it would be the end of them.

Greens the same. You think FF, funded by the developers, are going to start building sustainable, less profitable, developments because the Greens tell them to? Of course not.

It will probably be FF/PD/Ind minority government.

Its interesting that Trevor Sargent said that banning corporate donations is one of their priorities if they were to go into government with FF.

The Muppet · 26-05-2007 12:34pm

If the greens have the numbers Labour will be happy to step back and let them take the risks involved. If the Greens don't have the numbers Labour will have to bite the bullet and go into government, There will be no other viable option.

edanto · 26-05-2007 12:37pm

I'd back the greens going in with FF. Enda for Ceann-Comhairle!

Just heard that Eamonn Ryan told reporters that he'd make a govt with FF, it's just up to the members now.

solas · 26-05-2007 1:03pm

SF for the buzz. I've set my heart on Gerry becoming minister for justice.

it could work

galactus · 26-05-2007 4:49pm

Lennoxschips wrote:

If Labour go in with FF again they will never receive as much as a preference from me again. They'd be mad to do it, it would be the end of them.

Greens the same. You think FF, funded by the developers, are going to start building sustainable, less profitable, developments because the Greens tell them to? Of course not.

It will probably be FF/PD/Ind minority government.

The whole point of running party candidates is to influence policy, can't see why FF/GP isn't a runner. "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer" etc. as far as the Greens are concerned (but I'd say Trevor Sergent will probaly step down if this happens though).

Bertie has said he wants a stable government which indicates two parties. Then again, he says a lot of things...

edanto · 27-05-2007 2:03am

The numbers add up for the greens, the magic 84. I don't think there is any other option for Bertie, Labour would demand too many cabinet chairs. The greens have a strong negotiating position, I hope they're brave in the ministeries that they ask for. A Green finance minister - I'd love to see Fairness and Prosperity implemented.
It's the most sensible finance policy that I've seen and could help soften the blow of the crash.
http://www.danboyle.ie/documents/Fiscal%20programme.doc.pdf

axer · 27-05-2007 2:14am

I cannot see FF going into government with Labour instead of the Greens. Labour will cost FF more cabinet seats and the Greens have enough seats to form a coalition with FF. I do think that Labour would definitely go into government with FF if asked but they will be a last resort of FF.

beanyb · 27-05-2007 10:37am

Bertie says he wants stability. Sure, Labour and the Greens offer stability in the numbers sense but are far more likely to walk out of government if something happens that they dont like. Which in reality, makes it a shakier base for a government than FF/PD with the support of independents. They made it 5 years like that from 97-02. FF/Labour didnt even make it close after the 92 election.

gandalf · 27-05-2007 10:45am

Lennoxschips wrote:

If Labour go in with FF again they will never receive as much as a preference from me again. They'd be mad to do it, it would be the end of them.

Greens the same. You think FF, funded by the developers, are going to start building sustainable, less profitable, developments because the Greens tell them to? Of course not.

It will probably be FF/PD/Ind minority government.

Lennox as a Labour supporter and ex party member I would be the same as you. I would never vote for them again if they went into Government with FF again. I left the party in 1992 because Spring jumped in with the developers party.

edanto · 27-05-2007 11:24am

I dunno mate. I'm a GP supporter and I'd much rather that they went into coalition with FF than sat out on the sidelines.

I wouldn't hate them for sleeping with the enemy, as shonky as I think FF are, there's only one way to change the system and that's from the inside.

BlitzKrieg · 27-05-2007 11:38am

Berties thoughts:

However, he said his coalition won't be Sinn Fein, as they had been ruled out early on in the campaign.
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On his former coalition partners, the Progressive Democrats, Mr Ahern said it was regrettable that Michael McDowell wasn't re-elected.

He also said that there are a number of Independents who are fairly close to the Fianna Fáil party, together with the two PDs who are options for partnership.

He didn't rule out the Green Party either saying they are 'another consideration'.

On the prospect of joining up with the Labour Party he said it was 'less likely' but he would give them 'some thought'.

He added that Fianna Fáil had received 'an enormously strong mandate' from the electorate and it 'beholds' them to form a government.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0527/ahernb.html

Green or Labour Coalition?

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