Green or Labour Coalition?

jmayo

As Ivan Yates said on The Panel, watch out for the National Interest.
Looks like that GP is baying to get into power but will Bertie want the PDs plus 3 independents that are pro FF anyway.

There is no way Labour will chance going in there.
I believe that is reason lot of people did not vote for them.
Bertie and the boys were convincing people that the Labour party would join FF after election.

E92

Going into Government with Fianna Fáil is a poisoned chalice. Look at Labour, went from 33 seats to 21 after going in with them. The PDs from 8 to 2. Labour have a choice. They can either go slowly or quickly. If Labour go in with FF you can be sure that a lot of their voters will go and vote either FG and the Greens. They would also lose out on Fine Gael transfers. Fine Gael people myself included did not transfer to Labour on Thursday so that they could go into power with Fianna Fáil. Same goes for the Greens. If the Greens go in they will be wiped off the floor next time around, because they wont be getting transfers from Fine Gaerl and Labour people next time(as Enda reminded us yesterday it was Fine Gael transfers that helped them get some of their TDs in, in particular I'm thinking of Ciarán Cuffe in Dún Laoghaire where we had the votes to get back the second seat) and that will mean that there will only be 4 parties vying for your vote namely Sinn Féin, Fine Gael,Fianna Fáil and Labour. I say 4 because I'm hearing that the PDs will re-merge with Fianna Fáil though ironicly its Fine Gael that they have most in common with. They prefer FF yet they always took Fine Gael votes and seats.

If Fianna Fáil want to get rid of the Greens for good then they should get the Greens to go in with them.

As for what Enda is saying does anybody actually think its going to happen? I think it would damage Fine Gael, we are better off in opposition, one FF supporter said on this board that now was a good time for FF to be in opposition, therefore we would be handing FF a present. But Enda is dead right to remind everbody that FG+Lab+GP are JUST 3 seats behind FF+PD. The gap used to be 32 seats. The most likely outcome it seems if FF+PD+Independents though.

irish_bob

its going to be a very interesting few days or weeks ahead

just on the mathematics of it , the greens and fianna fail would seem like the ideal choice for bertie , he would only have to give up at most 2 ministrys
this would also be good for the greens too , they could become energised by being in power because even though thier has been an enviormental concern everywhere this past few yrs , the greens have done badly in this election so they may never get a better chanve to go into goverment than right now
i believe the greens will jump at the chance if bertie does indeed make that call
but i dont believe he will , thier are a few reasons , 1st of all , i was listening to jim glennon in newstalk yesterday and he said that bertie is a very cautious man , he likes what he knows and he doesnt know the greens
glennon reckoned bertie will most certainly go for the pd,s and gene pool independant , jackie healy rae , beverly flynn and co
the pd,s as theyve absolutly nothing to loose will gladly accept and it will be quite popular within the general public because most of the public would be happy to see mary harney continue in health , in fact many fianna fail voters have told me this , you see the pd,s done badly for one reason in this election , micheal mc dowell , mc dowell tried to kill a sacred cow , he tried to take on bertie and fianna fail voters didnt transfer to the pd,s as a result , while in other cricles the pd,s were unpopular , within fianna fail voters , it was simply mc dowells messing over bertiegate , as shown by the poor showing of sinn fein in this election , no one had a problem with mc dowell telling it like it is on ira criminality , it was bertie gate that sunk the pd,s due to fianna fail who because of thier great performance could have saved the pd,s and returned the same coalition with transfers

thier is another reason why i believe bertie will choose the pd,s and independants from the ff gene pool and it is this
thier is a place outside the pale called rural ireland and it is venemously anti green , it is called the farmers vote , fianna fail depend on the farmer vote and in a broad sense the rural ireland vote and i am telling everyone now that if fianna fail get into bed with the greens , rural ireland will not only wreak a terrible vengance on fianna fail ,they will vote for fine gael who also have a huge rural and farmer vote in the next election , which is why fine gale will be praying that bertie does a deal with the greens
while the enviroment is an important issues , bertie aherne is a pragmatist and will not create a situation where he faces revolt from fianna fail backbenchers from rural constituencies who have mobs of farmers lynching them in thier home towns and villages , such a coalition would also destroy brian cowans chances of ever becoming taoiseach and brian who is too much of a bogger for those inside the pale , very much relys on his huge popularity within rural ireland

the other option is of course labour , if i were pat rabbite i would consider the above example i have given of how if ff do a deal with the greens , not only will pat rabbite not have done a u turn and decided to go into goverment with fianna fail but he is likely to benefit as fine gaels partner the next time round as they are likely to gain from ff having done business with the greens , pat rabbite has run an excellent campaign and if he can keep labour even where they are , the fact that fine gael are sure to make gains next time around , bertie not being there will help endas chances , then i believe labour have a great chance of being in power the next time
remember the greens are a niche party , they might not get a better chance again , labour,s clock even thier td,s are a little long in the tooth is not ticking as fast

but that said , i still believe bertie will do as he always does , play it safe , do a deal with the pd,s and gene pool independants
the greens are a very idealogical party and fianna fail and especially bertie aherne does not have an idealogical bone in his body

redspider

Clearly, the preferred FF option is FF+PD's+Independents. If FF can make up a majority with that, they will have more power in their negotiations with GP. I expect them to have parallel negotiations and to play one set off against each other.

In terms of numbers, FF+GP is the more stable, but in terms of policy and agreement who knows. GP would be new to government and it would depend on how much they will stick to their principles, especially of there is a Bertiegate 3. FF know that the PD's have no principles and are FF lapdogs to some extent, although the lapdog was the tail that wagged the dog for quite a bit over the last 10 years.

Having said that, from the soundings that Sargent has been making in the last couple of days, he has left the door open to FF, in fact, quite ajar. Also Gormley has been welcoming, at least on the urface. However, how they get on in the negotiations is anyone's guess as it will depend on how flexible each side is and how they can 'spin' any proposed resulting coalition towards each of their sets of supporters.

I think that from a Green voter position, wasnt Sargent calling for politics to clean up its act and wasnt he vociferous against Bertie in Bertigate1 and 2? Wasnt he more or less calling for him to resign when speaking in the Dail? So, is all that forgotten now? I would find that strange and think that any party that flip-flops on its stated principles will be asking for trouble come the next election.

I think the GP's could go into coalition with FF if Cowen was the leader, but that wont happen. FF would rather risk another election and a while in opposition.

The odds are therefore that it will be an FF+PD+Inds government, unless the GP are risk takers. Then, if/when Beverly Flynn is chucked out, and tat could drag on, and if FG would win that Mayo by-election, which is highly likely, we could see another general election called. All it would take is Gregory or McGrath or both to switch allegiance on some point of principle.

The situation is on a knife-edge really .....

Ironically, the electorate didnt support many Independents this time, yet now its Independents that hold the balance of power. The Hospital Alliance people just got their timing wrong.

Redspider

Húrin

Lennoxschips wrote:

Greens the same. You think FF, funded by the developers, are going to start building sustainable, less profitable, developments because the Greens tell them to? Of course not.

In which case the Greens will be need to come up with ways to make sustainability more profitable, or at worst, have the guts to pull the plug on the government if they don't get what they want.

Húrin

irish_bob wrote:

thier is another reason why i believe bertie will choose the pd,s and independants from the ff gene pool and it is this
thier is a place outside the pale called rural ireland and it is venemously anti green , it is called the farmers vote ,

In my experience, it's called the ignorant vote. Most rural anti-Green voters are extremely misinformed about what Green policies are. They depend on stereotypes.

ateam

Not a Green voter, but I think I wouldn't mind seeing them in government for an injection of new blood. Interesting to see how they would cope with power too.

ateam

The Greens and Fianna Fail will meet tomorrow to try to find the basis for the formation of the next Government:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0602/election.html

redspider

So, the Green's and FF are meeting for the 2nd day. Just a 2 hoursmeeting yesterday so a lot of work still to do no doubt. All the Green's soundings seem to indicate a willingness to bend on some principles perhaps. But what happens with the Sargent v Bertie spat? And the Gormley v Bertie vitriol over the last 5 years? Was that a bluster on their part? Notable that neither Bertie nor Sargent are involved in the negotiations.

Cuffe was right of course, that doing a deal with FF from the Green Party's perspective is like doing a deal with the devil. Likewise, there is a lot of core people in FF who would not favour GP at all and see them as 'radicals'.

I think tactically, FF are looking to get an FF+PD+several independents core + the GP, as insurance, such that FF aren't reliant on any single party or the independents. They will probably only have to 'give up' 3 ministeries, Health to PD's, Environment and something else to GP. It all depends on how flexible the Green Party is. This is unknown as it is their first time to compromise. And compromising on principles is likely to lose votes the next time perhaps, so it is a risky policy and a lot will depend on how the compromises are 'spun'. Also the role of watchdog and keeping FF in check and their usage of the 'we will walk' threat. If they use that card wisely and at the right time, they could in fact gain seats the next time. So, its all to play for, but it is dealing with 'fire'.

The numbers would be:

FF+PD+3 Ind's+GP = 78+2+3+6 = 89 and hence relatively stable ....

although with Jim McDaid threatening a walk, an independent may threaten it at some stage and the GP also likely to threaten it, its not clear how stable is that particular 89. Only time would tell.

A deal is still to be stuck but if both sides are willing to, then it is just about possible.

What do Green Party people think about this prospect?

Redspider

jjbrien

redspider wrote:

The numbers would be:

FF+PD+3 Ind's+GP = 78+2+3+6 = 89 and hence relatively stable ....

although with Jim McDaid threatening a walk, an independent may threaten it at some stage and the GP also likely to threaten it, its not clear how stable is that particular 89. Only time would tell.



Redspider

Thats just as bad as Enda Kennys Rainbow idea. Its another patched together Goverment would not be very stable at all. It will be more than likly FF + Greens + PD's 78+6+2= 86 + Ceann Corhile). With the Ceann Corhile they dont even need the PD's they would have 85.

K-9

jjbrien wrote:

Thats just as bad as Enda Kennys Rainbow idea. Its another patched together Goverment would not be very stable at all. It will be more than likly FF + Greens + PD's 78+6+2= 86 + Ceann Corhile). With the Ceann Corhile they dont even need the PD's they would have 85.

FF/Greens and some Independents would do to.

I always thought the Greens should always have kept FF as a serious option as they where more likely to get more of their proposals enacted in a 2 party Govt rather than a 3/4 party Govt.

On Sargent etc. hating FF in the last Dail, well thats politics. If FF could do a deal with the PD's in 89 they'll have no problem with the Greens now.

IronMan

I wonder as to whether the Green party will insist on implementing some of their Dail reform proposals that they set forward in their manifesto for government:

Reduce the number of TD's from 166 to 130.
Ban corporate, institutional or foreign-based donations to any political party (a much smaller tent at the Galway races).
Set up a joint Oireachtas committee to oversee appointments to public bodies (first they get rid of the health boards, now no soft touch state board appointments!)
Stop any further relocation of staff under the current decentralisation programme until a genuine plan for decentralised decision-making is put in place.

All potential sticking points.

E92

Well with the way the Greens seem to have caved in already to FF, I wonder how much(or increasingly how little) of a problem this will be for them.

K-9

IronMan wrote:

I wonder as to whether the Green party will insist on implementing some of their Dail reform proposals that they set forward in their manifesto for government:

Reduce the number of TD's from 166 to 130.
Ban corporate, institutional or foreign-based donations to any political party (a much smaller tent at the Galway races).
Set up a joint Oireachtas committee to oversee appointments to public bodies (first they get rid of the health boards, now no soft touch state board appointments!)
Stop any further relocation of staff under the current decentralisation programme until a genuine plan for decentralised decision-making is put in place.

All potential sticking points.

Seriously can't see them reducing the TD's. There was enough problems with under representation before the election plus it could well benefit FF & FG rather than the smaller parties.

On political donations FF are in no position to object and on state board well it would be interesting to see what sort of teeth it would have.

De-centralisation was a PD/McCreevy policy which even Parlon seemed to be loosing faith in.

Húrin

IronMan wrote:

Reduce the number of TD's from 166 to 130.

The Green party was stupid to put such a self-destructive policy in their manifesto. I don't think most voters knew about it.

Elmo

The Green party was stupid to put such a self-destructive policy in their manifesto. I don't think most voters knew about it.

Not really when you think that the PD's want to have 1 minister and junior minister and 2 senitors. I mean with this attitude the Green can have 2 TD in a 130 Dail and still get 2 ministers.

Also reducing the number of TD would reduce the spend on TDs.

After 5 years they are on 101,000 euros and if they don't get back in they are paid for 3 months after they leave their seat plus a penison.

Ruen

Oh read that wrong.
I don't think the Greens are a good idea, any party can have environmentally friendly policies and they dont need to be a Green party