Ireland overpriced for the world cup on betfair

iwincosimcool

Ireland's price to win the world cup has strangely drifted to 29's to win the rugby world cup on betfair, been matched as high as 32 recently. We are a best price of 14/1 with the main bookies and as low as 9/1.

Just because the hype surrounding us from the Autumn Internationals have died down doesnt make us any less of a team, I think people are forgetting how good we can be, we have showed on our day we can bet anyone (and I would include the 'invincible' new zealand.) Altough admitedly were f'd if we lose any of our big players.

If (I know its a big if) we win our group we would have scotland or Italy in the quarters which is an easy route to the semis were we would most likely meet south africa or australia teams we have beaten this year already.

I plan on backing us heavily now at 30's/32's If I can get it matched and lay most of it If we get to the final which would be against new zealand, think we have a big chance of making the final. Any thoughts?

Dodge

More likely we'll finish 2nd in group and have to play NZ much earlier

Don't think I'll be tempted

Chucky the tree

You cant compare the SA team we beat in autumn too the one that will play the WC. They would destroy us.

iwincosimcool

Chucky the tree wrote:

You cant compare the SA team we beat in autumn too the one that will play the WC. They would destroy us.

remember the crowd will be majorityly Irish, and I doubt they would 'destroy' us, we have more world class players than them and Irish teams always have good spirit. Losing to France in the last minute does not make us any less of a team , In fact I think It makes us mentally stronger and more prepared, If we won the grand slam wed be trading at less than 20, just think were great value currently

iwincosimcool

Well Beat Anyone In The World, Stop Being Fujin Racist . Poor Ogra , Odriscool And Oconnel, Proper Disturbed By Your Lack Of Faith. You Fujin Smakins , You All Smell Of Poo Poo Cos Your Really South African's , You Idiotic People

Chucky the tree

iwincosimcool wrote:

remember the crowd will be majorityly Irish, and I doubt they would 'destroy' us, we have more world class players than them and Irish teams always have good spirit. Losing to France in the last minute does not make us any less of a team , In fact I think It makes us mentally stronger and more prepared, If we won the grand slam wed be trading at less than 20, just think were great value currently

We only have 1 world class player. Struggling against a very poor Scottish and Welsh team does make us an over-rated team i think. We need to win our group to have a chance, then it would hav to be laid at semi's as i cant see us beat SA.

We also have Argentina in our group, if we had somoa or Fiji and our 1/4 place was pretty much guranteed then it might be worth taking, but i personnally wouldnt. I do hope it comes off though obviously!

iwincosimcool

ok thanks Chucky the tree, that's a fair responce and im happy at the quality of it, I think O'gara, Oconnel and O'sriscoll are all world class though we have many match winners like horgan are . I fancy us to beat france, and we could take any of south africa/england or australia/wales in the semis. Im sorry for being so emotional on this subject , i was so pissed off with your non passionate replys that i backed us for 1400 euro at 29's. When you are reminded of how good we can be in that documentary tomorrow night youll back us and you will be repaid with a FUJN TROUNCING OF THEM FRENCH MOTHEFUKRERS IN THEIR OWN BACK YARD, THE LAST MIONUTE TRY SCORING FUJERS

ArmaniJeanss

What about Argentina at 120s?.

Theres seems to be never more than a score either way when they meet Ireland, and they've had the upper hand on France over the last decade.(though again every game seems to have <7 points in it).

The obvious drawback as outlined above is that they are in the nastiest group, and must win it to avoid NZ in the 1/4 finals.

However 120/1 Argentina seems better than 29/1 Ireland to me, all we know about both sides would indicate their prices should be closer.

Am I missing anything, will there be problems getting players released etc??

zuutroy

Chucky the tree wrote:

We only have 1 world class player.

:eek: 2 of the best wingers in the world, the best 13 and almost if not THE best 12, top 3 out-half, top 5 scrum half, best flanker, top 5 no. 8 and the best second row forward. At least 10 world class players IMO.

Chucky the tree

zuutroy wrote:

:eek: 2 of the best wingers in the world, the best 13 and almost if not THE best 12, top 3 out-half, top 5 scrum half, best flanker, top 5 no. 8 and the best second row forward. At least 10 world class players IMO.

ah here, 10 world class players? If we were to pick a world 15 who make the team? I'll give you BOD definitly, POC on form and possibly thats it.

zuutroy

Chucky the tree wrote:

ah here, 10 world class players? If we were to pick a world 15 who make the team? I'll give you BOD definitly, POC on form and possibly thats it.

Well now there's a difference between world class, and making a world XV. NZ would virtually take up every spot on that team. Even still I'd stick Wallace and D'Arcy on that team too, though I'm probably horribly biased!

Chucky the tree

zuutroy wrote:

Well now there's a difference between world class, and making a world XV. NZ would virtually take up every spot on that team. Even still I'd stick Wallace and D'Arcy on that team too, though I'm probably horribly biased!

Thats what i'd count as world class. I dont think there is enough Rugby teams in the world so i tend to alot more stricter when classing someone as world class.

You'd have Wallace at number 7 ahead of Richie McCaw? :eek:



Armani - Its a tempting price but they will have to win the group for it too drop to make it worth a trade. If they come second and face NZ there price wont drop much, i can see them beating Ireland or France, but beating both of them will be a very big ask.

For me Wales @ 94/1 are a much better bet. They have Austraila in their group who are not great at all. The winner of that group will probaly play England who they could easily beat.

WH BONNEY

Chucky the tree wrote:

We only have 1 world class player. !

Jaysus Chucky,

you ever see this guy before ?




http://www.ercrugby.co.uk/eng/36_4571.php?player=424

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

What about Argentina at 120s?.

Theres seems to be never more than a score either way when they meet Ireland, and they've had the upper hand on France over the last decade.(though again every game seems to have <7 points in it).

The obvious drawback as outlined above is that they are in the nastiest group, and must win it to avoid NZ in the 1/4 finals.

However 120/1 Argentina seems better than 29/1 Ireland to me, all we know about both sides would indicate their prices should be closer.

BumpittyBumpBump etc.

Can't ask for anything more so far than winning the group, getting the Scots in the 1/4s followed by a possible semi against SouthAfrica/Fiji. Argies still 22/1 though so no point in a trade out yet.

NewZealand, Australia and France being in the other half of the draw gives the competition a one sided look and whoever comes through this difficult half may not be at their best come the final.

Quietly optimistic (though i'd like that Scottish kicker guy to get shortterm injured).

Game on.

ArmaniJeanss

Bumping this for the last time, i promise.
Very dissapointed with the final outcome of my long-odds punt on The Pumas, the 3rd place play-off only hammered home how good they are (and how they are still seriously underestimated by the bookies as Mellors ht thread shows) and that this competition was theirs for the taking.
Tragically, all their major mistakes came in the one game, instead of being spread over the whole competition.

Mellor

:D Thanks for the plug,
I agree the bookies got it majorly wrong on the RWC, not only with the pumas but accross the board.
It would be interesting to list up all the handicap predictions from the bookies, and the actually scores.

SA are -9 for the final, this is a great bet imo, and i think i may even push it a little to take better odds, +12 or +15