Final Results. Let the negotiations begin

redspider

kbannon wrote:

Bertie: "then there are a number of Independents who would be fairly close to my party - there's at least three of those"

At least 3 ?!?!?

Flynn, Healy-Rae .... yes, that's 2, but the 3rd, he must be including either McGrath or Gregory in that.

Does anyone know McGrath's likelihood to sway in with FF or not?
Finian, are you out there? You can break it here ......

Redspider

ps: Yes, the German economy is doing much better in recent times. Better than the US!

chump

Just for information purposes...

PaddyPower has FF/PD govt. next at @ odds of 10/11 [this bet includes independents, provided none hold ministries]
The same bet can be taken on betfair for 3.25, this is 13/4

so 10/11
vs. 13/4

I know which odds I'd take

Voipjunkie

FF have been in power for 20 years(bar 2.5 years) and if they form a Government they will have been in power for 25 years.

In the interest of democracy is it time for another inter party government

FG 51
Lab20
Greens 6
Sinn Fein 4
Lowry 1
Tony Gregory 1
Finian McGrath 1

= 84

In the "national interest" should these parties put their differences aside to ensure that FF are not allowed to be perpetually in government.


BTW I understand people have a problem with SF could that be overcome by giving them 2 junior ministries that did not have a cabinet seat and not connected to Justice or Defence

LostinBlanch

redspider wrote:

Also Rory O'Hanlon could be asked to stay on as Ceann Comhairle and may do so as he could turn 'neutral' as well as it likely being his last term.

Rory O Hanlon, Neutral?? I'll believe that one when I see it. In my eyes he has been one of the most partisan Ceann Comhairles that I have ever seen. Sure didn't Labour consider having a vote of no confidence in him? Something I have never heard of before. I can't see him changing his spots now.

LuckyLloyd

Voipjunkie wrote:

FF have been in power for 20 years(bar 2.5 years) and if they form a Government they will have been in power for 25 years.

In the interest of democracy is it time for another inter party government

FG 51
Lab20
Greens 6
Sinn Fein 4
Lowry 1
Tony Gregory 1
Finian McGrath 1

= 84

In the "national interest" should these parties put their differences aside to ensure that FF are not allowed to be perpetually in government.

Be honest and ask yourself how long such a coalition would last. Not a viable option IMO.

Voipjunkie

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Be honest and ask yourself how long such a coalition would last. Not a viable option IMO.

Why whose interest would it be in to take it down

None of those involved other than FG have had a good election and would be in a hurry to rush back to the people it would also be in their interest to show that they could offer an alternative to FF


it would be as stable as FF/PD reliant on a bankrupt and 2 socialists who detest FF and the PDs

bk

redspider wrote:

Here are the 5 Indepenents/Others/Non-party members:

Tony Gregory - a real independent candidate for many years now. Worked with FF before, but FF will only call on him again as a last resort and are fearful of how much they would have to 'give away'. Gregory could do a deal with either side, as long as his constituency gets looked after and their issues done. In that light he probably prefers FG+Lab+GP.

On election night, Tony was definitely making noises that he would talk to FF. In political code, that pretty much means he will do the business as long as the price is right. Also the cost probably wouldn't be too high, as he is in Dublin Central with Bertie, so an area that gets a lot of attention anyway.

redspider wrote:

Finian McGrath - looks like a real independent but perhaps those that know him might be able to determine if he favours FG, FF or Labour. He comes across very genuine, only a TD since 2002, and has been active in terms of issues such as for the Homeless, unempoloyed and is vefy much a local TD. I have no ida which way he will veer, if any. Thoughts?

Hard to call, Finian has a republican shade to him, he gets a lot of transfers from SF, so probably closer to FF, then FG. Also he is pretty much Berties neighbour, living just across the road on Griffith Avenue. I'd be surprised if he didn't lean towards FF.

Voipjunkie

bk wrote:

On election night, Tony was definitely making noises that he would talk to FF. In political code, that pretty much means he will do the business as long as the price is right. Also the cost probably wouldn't be too high, as he is in Dublin Central with Bertie, so an area that gets a lot of attention anyway.



Hard to call, Finian has a republican shade to him, he gets a lot of transfers from SF, so probably closer to FF, then FG. Also he is pretty much Berties neighbour, living just across the road on Griffith Avenue. I'd be surprised if he didn't lean towards FF.

Finian Mcgrath is very similar in politics to Tony Gregory AFAIR he first stood in north central after part of Tony gregorys constituency was moved into North Central and he was endorsed by Gregory.

bk

Voipjunkie wrote:

FG 51
Lab20
Greens 6
Sinn Fein 4
Lowry 1
Tony Gregory 1
Finian McGrath 1

= 84

I think that is pretty much the worst thing FG could do. FG has done very well in this election and has built a strong base to challenge FF in the future and will likely perform much better in opposition.

However if they do the above, the Irish people won't thank them, specially going in with SF. It is likely such a government wouldn't last more then 2 or 3 years and when it did collapse, the voters would probably flock back to FF to ensure a stable government is put in place. This would probably put FF back in power for another 10 - 15 years.

Voipjunkie

bk wrote:

I think that is pretty much the worst thing FG could do. FG has done very well in this election and has built a strong base to challenge FF in the future and will likely perform much better in opposition.

However if they do the above, the Irish people won't thank them, specially going in with SF. It is likely such a government wouldn't last more then 2 or 3 years and when it did collapse, the voters would probably flock back to FF to ensure a stable government is put in place. This would probably put FF back in power for another 10 - 15 years.

Well lets presume that FF go in with the greens that means they will not be available for the next election for the alliance which is another 6 seats that they need to win that means that Labour and FG need 13 seats next time out which means that basically FG have to win them because labour tied to FG will win nothing.
Worse for FG if Labour go in with FF that removes 20 seats from the alliance next time out

If FF cobble a deal with Gregory and McGrath that will not be good for FG either as it will probably lead to a rise in independents next time out remembering that a lot of FG gains this time were at the expense of indpendents.


If FG and Labour are serious in the believe that FF continually in power is bad for democracy the numbers are there to remove them.

Akrasia

Voipjunkie wrote:

Well lets presume that FF go in with the greens that means they will not be available for the next election for the alliance which is another 6 seats

That's not necessarily true.

The greens could still be available for a new government with FG after the next election, especially if the next election is called prematurely as a result of a collapsing government if the greens pull out due to disagreement on key issues.

bk

Voipjunkie wrote:

If FG and Labour are serious in the believe that FF continually in power is bad for democracy the numbers are there to remove them.

Well, given that on RTE yesterday, the greens were pretty much throwing themselves at FF, it is pretty much over for the alternative.

Also what you say above is true, but IMO FG would become far more damaged if they went into government now.