Kenny looking to form Government

BlackIguana

Is this a runner?

From breakingnews.ie

The Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny says he's going to talk to the leader of the Greens, Labour and the PDs with a view to forming a government.

Enda Kenny says the seat tallies mean either side could be in power - but has again ruled out doing a deal with Sinn Féin.

He says the election results - in which Fine Gael and Labour's 'Alliance for Change' gained twenty seats - need a great deal of analysis and attention.

The Fine Gael leader is now going to talk to Pat Rabbitte, Trevor Sargent, Mary Harney and the independents about forming a Government.

But he's reiterating that he won't go into power with Sinn Féin.

If they all were to agree - they'd have 84 seats between them - versus 78 for Fianna Fáil.

Wow if it happens!

arctictree

BlackIguana wrote:

Is this a runner?

From breakingnews.ie

The Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny says he's going to talk to the leader of the Greens, Labour and the PDs with a view to forming a government.

Enda Kenny says the seat tallies mean either side could be in power - but has again ruled out doing a deal with Sinn Féin.

He says the election results - in which Fine Gael and Labour's 'Alliance for Change' gained twenty seats - need a great deal of analysis and attention.

The Fine Gael leader is now going to talk to Pat Rabbitte, Trevor Sargent, Mary Harney and the independents about forming a Government.

But he's reiterating that he won't go into power with Sinn Féin.

If they all were to agree - they'd have 84 seats between them - versus 78 for Fianna Fáil.

Wow if it happens!

Yes - just heard that on the radio. It is certainly possible but IMO Kenny would have to give in to all of their demands as FF will be courting the PDs and the GP too.....

A

BlackIguana

yep - parties like greens & pds are in great bargaining position.... especially the greens.

Didn't Bertie slag off the greens & trevor sargent in the run-up to the election though. I suspect the greens & FF aren't likely to end up in the same camp,,

BlackIguana

actually just looked at the figures again.

Chances of gettting those independents to sign up is slim/non-existent IMO.

Not really a runner I think. Ah well.

pjbrady1

There could be 3 pro Enda independents, Lowry (ex FG), Gregory (constituency man), McGrath (constituency man), Bev (the girl who could give Mayo a Taoiseach).
Bevs vote is an anti establishment vote. Mayo was all one constituency, she picked up a strong Castlebar vote. Imagine her national profile if she stuck the knife in Bertie.
Healy Rae, will make both sides sweat, but I'd imagine he would side with FF.

PDs surely will have some of their party calling for them not to go into government with FF. In ten years the party has been destroyed and has consistently taken any flak that was thrown at the government. If they want to renew they will have to do that away from the doorstop power that sharing with FF represents.

I just can't see the next goverment lasting the full five year term. Its been so long since the Irish Dail has heard the words "raising taxes" and "cutbacks".
P.J.

is_that_so

BlackIguana wrote:

actually just looked at the figures again.

Chances of gettting those independents to sign up is slim/non-existent IMO.

Not really a runner I think. Ah well.

Probably not but it does serve to remind people that this was a very close election.

bk

Well with out SF, it is a non runner. 2 of the 5 indo's they would need are FF gene pool.

Also those indos would likely get more under a FF government then FG, as FG would need to spread more cabinet seats and concessions amongst Labour, greens, PD's and indo's to get them on board.

What is likely happening is PD's, Greens and indo's are talking to FG just so that they can ring more concessions out of FF (you know FG promised us x, so what about x + y FF).

Or it could just be the media trying to pump up some interest, to sell more papers, get viewers.

Giblet

It would be a cluster**** tbh.

redspider

Its a long-shot at best, the numbers are very tight.

It depends on a lot of factors coming together, while possible, is not likely such as Flynn going in with FG.

The numbers are:
FG+Lab+GP+PD+3Ind 82
FG+Lab+GP+PD+4Ind 83

And who would the Independents be.

Lowry - yes, FG
Gregory - could be persuaded by either side
McGrath - I'd like to hear his opinion on the situation, from what I've heard, he could be more FF than FG, but stanger things have happened
Flynn - an FFer, but as she got kicked out, maybe some revenge .... unlikely but possible.
Healy-Rae - an FFer

So, 1 definite, 2 possible, 3 possible, 4 unlikely, but possible

FF's persuasion of the independents is a mirror image of that,
1 definite, 2 very possible, 3 possible, 4 possible

Hence FF shade it in terms of persuading the Independents as well.

I think that if FG could persuade the Ceann Comhairle to do that function again and vote with FG+Lab, etc, it would mean that they could scrape in. The CC would only do so if FF cant muster enough of a support from the Independents and GP. We will only know this over the forthcoming weeks as the negotiations take place.


> he's reiterating that he won't go into power with Sinn Féin.

I think FG's best chance was to try and persuade SF for tacit support, ie: SF voting for FG in government stakes yet keeping them on the outside. They may have agreed to that. But going all out against SF in such a tight situation is fool-hardy and shooting yourself in the foot, to a certain extent. I realise that there are principles behind it but we have asked the Unionist community to do just that (ie: work with SF) yet FF and FG are not even willing to entertain it or discuss it. The mind boggles.

Ironically, with the seat situation so tight, SF's 4 seats and the fact that no-one wants to include them, means that neither side can form a government without making a lot of sacrifices.

Redspider

I think he is playing a cute game. A leadership battle in FG occurs if he can't form a government.

Although he would win it I think his main aim is to put FF under pressure.

Edit. Odds have been moving on Bertie becoming Taoiseach. I suspect pressure from possible coalition partners to axe Ahern

Raskolnikov

I don't know why Enda is drawing this out. Since he has categorically ruled out Sinn Féin, he needs the support of every other Independant and party to get into power with a majority of just one.

bk

ronoc wrote:

.Edit. Odds have been moving on Bertie becoming Taoiseach. I suspect pressure from possible coalition partners to axe Ahern

I'd say that is very unlikely, if it was just Labour as partner, then yes, but I don't think Bertie would bother the greens or a small PD party plus indo's.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Time Magazine

It's unlikely but it could happen.

If Kenny fails to form a government there will be a leadership contest by default, but he would walk it.

I'm now thinking he is trying to keep labour on board.

FF + PD + IND won't last the 5 years.

Enda is playing his hand very well

bemmet

Christ.
Will the man not just concede defeat and walk away with a bit of honour left intact.

Even his media have deserted him in droves .Kenny is now in danger of making a laughing stock of himself.

wb

bemmet wrote:

Christ.
Will the man not just concede defeat and walk away with a bit of honour left intact.

Even his media have deserted him in droves .Kenny is now in danger of making a laughing stock of himself.

Here Here.

He ran a very good campaign and rescued the FG party, but for God's sake, it's getting embarrassing now. You've done well Enda, but the election is lost!

wb

wb wrote:

Here Here.

He ran a very good campaign and rescued the FG party, but for God's sake, it's getting embarrassing now. You've done well Enda, but the election is lost!

Welcome to politics.
It is still possible to form a government. But of more concern is not to lose the labour backing and put pressure on Ahern to form a less stable gov with the independants.

Clik

Just when we need a strong government, its all going to be messed up now for the sake of politics. I think we are going to be in for a rough period pretty soon.

rkeane

Enda is crazy if he thinks the PDS are going to go with his contract...Mary Harney is likely to be Minister for Health in a FF/PD/independents coalition.

Enda....stop dreaming!:D

ninebeanrows

wb, and bemmet, you have to consider that they haven't really LOST in a big way.. The government that they were putting forward FG + LABOUR + GREENS is infact only one seat behind Fianna Fail (78-77).

This is very interesting and personally i hope that it comes to fruition

is_that_so

rkeane wrote:

Enda is crazy if he thinks the PDS are going to go with his contract...Mary Harney is likely to be Minister for Health in a FF/PD/independents coalition.

Enda....stop dreaming!:D

There's some PR at work here and until a deal is done he is fully entitled to count himself in, unlikely as that appears. He gets a few days free publicity. It's good for his troops and the voting public who opted for the alternative.

nesf

That would be a messy and unstable Government stretching from conservative right to liberal left and everything in between.

Smart political move though. Stirring up **** with negotiations about to start is exactly what he should be doing imho.

flogen

I think Kenny is smart to play this game but would be stupid to actually go through with it, even if all the parties signed up to his idea.

He's smart because he's putting FF under a bit more pressure and, perhaps, forcing them to conceed more. He's also reminding the electorate that it wasn't the whitewash that is implied in FF's strong performance.

He'd be stupid to go for it because a 4 party (+ 5 independent) coalition is destined to collapse at the first bit of bother, especially when you consider the fact that Labour would have to work with the PDs.

Why won't it happen? If there's any one reason it'll be the PDs. Harney will only be interested if FG promise her health and Labour will not want that due to the whole colocation thing.

Bit of a laugh to watch, though. Maybe Kenny just wants to take some of Bertie's swagger away.

Jonny Arson

nesf wrote:

That would be a messy and unstable Government stretching from conservative right to liberal left and everything in between.

Smart political move though. Stirring up **** with negotiations about to start is exactly what he should be doing imho.

I completely agree with that.

If he is actually serious I'd say, wait 5 more years Enda, run a solid opposition over the 30th Dáil and you will stroll into government in 2012.

Our man in Havana

Any govt formed by FG would likely collapse by christmas when internal squabbles amoungst labour/greens/pds would cause the finance act not to pass.

bemmet

kenny will stroll into government in 2012 ..........you cannot be serious !!!!!!!!!!!!

By the time of the next election -
he will be
-by far the longest serving member of the dail..
-five years longer bereft of any meaningful ministerial experience..
-the media will hardly be as friendly to him again (e.g. majority of media called the debate a draw whereas the vast majority of the public polled clearly saw only one winner -ps not from mayo!)
-still have the same inept ability to demonstate mastery of figures or anything above a preplanted soundbite pattern
-Leading a party who has not tasted victory for a generation

And on top of all that ,he would be entering a 2012 election promising the electorate a vigorous leadership when the truth would be that he would be drawing the old age pension before his term was up !

Come on be serious........

GTC

bemmet wrote:

kenny will stroll into government in 2012 ..........you cannot be serious !!!!!!!!!!!!

By the time of the next election -
he will be
-by far the longest serving member of the dail..
-five years longer bereft of any meaningful ministerial experience..
-the media will hardly be as friendly to him again (e.g. majority of media called the debate a draw whereas the vast majority of the public polled clearly saw only one winner -ps not from mayo!)
-still have the same inept ability to demonstate mastery of figures or anything above a preplanted soundbite pattern
-Leading a party who has not tasted victory for a generation

And on top of all that ,he would be entering a 2012 election promising the electorate a vigorous leadership when the truth would be that he would be drawing the old age pension before his term was up !

Come on be serious........

True stuff, Enda will not lead the party into the Dáil in 5 years time. But you can be sure that FF will not get back into government next time. The economy is about to see to that.

endplate

bemmet wrote:

-still have the same inept ability to demonstate mastery of figures or anything above a preplanted soundbite pattern
......

It's funny how our present outgoing government has the same inept ability to demonstrate mastery of figures too

GTC

God, wouldn't it be funny if the Weasel in Chief had to sit in the opposition benches?!! Long shot I know, but it would be glorious.

homah_7ft

bemmet wrote:

kenny will stroll into government in 2012 ..........you cannot be serious !!!!!!!!!!!!

By the time of the next election -
he will be
-by far the longest serving member of the dail..
-five years longer bereft of any meaningful ministerial experience..
-the media will hardly be as friendly to him again (e.g. majority of media called the debate a draw whereas the vast majority of the public polled clearly saw only one winner -ps not from mayo!)
-still have the same inept ability to demonstate mastery of figures or anything above a preplanted soundbite pattern
-Leading a party who has not tasted victory for a generation

And on top of all that ,he would be entering a 2012 election promising the electorate a vigorous leadership when the truth would be that he would be drawing the old age pension before his term was up !

Come on be serious........

Who says the next government is going to last 5 years? If FF go in with the greens it's likely to be a time bomb. Greens are anti-corruption (in particular with planning). Without them the numbers are so tight it only takes a by-election to bring down the government.