Roland Garros 2007

Bateman

I know there are a few here who will be interested in this, Dodge and Raskolnikov spring to mind.

French Open began Sunday 27th. I usually tend to stay away from the women's, apart from the odd bit of backing and laying in-play. Rather than laying Nadal at his current price of 1.81, I've gone and had a few outright picks with the intention of laying off if any of them does enough to present that opportunity to me. I'm no tennis expert but I've watched a fair bit in the past 12 months, and I'm really just going by who has impressed me from what I've seen. All prices are from betfair.

Fernando Gonzalez (€5 @ 75 [74/1])
Gonzalez was the beaten finalist (to Federer) in Australia in January, loves clay, and is a form player on the tour. He also reached the final in the Rome Masters a couple of weeks back, where he unfortunately capitulated to Rafa. He has Gasquet, Davydenko, and Federer on his side of the draw though, so small stakes here as he will have to produce his finest tennis to get near the final. If he does though, he'll give me a run for my money.

Tommy Robredo (€5 @ 220 [219/1])
Another player who just looks comfortable, confident, and happy on clay. He really is as clay-loving as they come. Eliminated by Federer in Australia at the quarter final stage, he could meet Federer again here, and would be capable of turning the Swiss over.

Novak Djokovic (€10 @ 42 [41/1])
The new kid on the block, this lad is definitely one to have on your side. His raw energy has already seen him win the Indian Wells Masters, which was played on the hard surface. Hard is his best surface but he fancies himself as an all-surface player, and doesn't have the most difficult of draws on the way to a possible semi against Nadal. Reached the Q/F at Roland Garros last year.

Nikolay Davydenko (€5 @ 70 [69/1])
Semi finalist and quarter finalist here in the past 2 years. He is notoriously unpredictable, and has the tendency to crash out of tournaments against opponents he really should be beating. That said, the flipside is that he can really put in a shift against the top tier players, having pushed Nadal to a deciding set in the semi final of Rome Masters recently. Doubtful as to whether he has it in him to win one of these majors, but worth chancing at the fancy price.


Links:
http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/index.html
http://www.atptennis.com/1/en/home/
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/?tx11555


OPINIONS???????????

Mezcita

God damn Betfair and their crazy odds.

I've gone for Ivan Ljubicic at a storming 480/1. Hasen't done much this year but can last the distance in five set matches.

clusk007

Got Safin at 150/1 which is a crazy price!

clusk007

clusk007 wrote:

Got Safin at 150/1 which is a crazy price!

D'oh!

Raskolnikov

I am indeed interested!

I know it looks like after-timing here, but I'm all over David Nalbandian at 229/1 (betfair.com). I know he's been rubbish as of late, but he likes the clay and has performed here before.

badbrian

How does the market betting w/o Nadal and Federer work?

Assuming they get to the final is it a settled as a dead heat between the semi-finalists?

Raskolnikov

Nalbandian trading at 109/1 now.

He's up against Davydenko in the 4th round tomorrow

Either you or I are going to lose out here Bateman.

Bateman

Well I'm still sucking diesel, although I'm obviously not at lay stage yet. Tomorrow is squeaky bum time.

Moya v Nadal
Djokovic v Andreev

Davydenko v Canas
Federer v Robredo


The market makes Canas favourite against Davydenko, but I think Davydenko will win; Canas looks knackered. I'd be confident enough that Djokovic will beat Andreev, and obviously with Robredo I'm hoping for a Federer off-day. There is still a lot to be said and done between now and the Nadal-Federer "dream final".

Raskolnikov

Argh! Useless Fat Argie has let me down. It's ridiculous, the man is only 23 and he's already past it.

Federer was rubbish again today, but typically was able to step up a gear to take out Robredo. Can't see Davydenko beating him in the semi's either. Federer is 8-0 against Davydenko in head to head's. http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/players/headtohead/default.asp?playernum1=F324&playernum2=D402 I'd lay off if I was you Bateman, just can't see past Federer, especially in a Major.

I imagine Nadal and Djokovic will see Moya and Andreev off pretty easily. That gives a Djokovic-Nadal semi-final which is a fairly attractive prospect as a tennis match! If Nadal is able to maintain the form he displayed again Hewitt in the last round (he creamed him), then I think Djokovic doesn't have a hope.

Bateman

Can't argue with much of what you said, but I'm not laying off a fiver on Davydenko.

I have to admit that the momentum is building towards a Nadal-Federer, but you just never know.

Dodge

Just notice I got name checked there (and just realised who you were...)

Anyway I'd let the fiver ride. Davydenko looked pretty damn good yesterday

Bateman

Well the 6/5 "dream final" is on. Nadal should really be a lay at 1.45, but if the same Roger turns up as the one that stepped out against Davydenko, Nadal will win in under 27.5 games. Fascinating final I suppose, but I can't help feeling bitter about Davydenko bottling it.

Raskolnikov

I can't see it happening for Feds tomorrow. However, if Nadal takes the first set, I shall be laying him as I don't think Feds will capitulate easily.

Bateman

Sunday you mean

I'm 4pts Ivanovic for tomorrow, here's hoping!