Send Enda Kenny a Calculator

bemmet

I decided to leave the site alone for a couple of days to see if time would settle the dust and some serious debate would begin in here.

Boy oh boy the post election bitterness of defeat still hangs in the air ,like old worthless cordite.

It reminds me of so many sporting contests where drunks in pubs mutter of what might have been,how bad the referee was ,the weather didnt suit them,if only if only if only .

Its over- the people have spoken.

Live with it .... you lost .

get used to it.

jjbrien

bemmet wrote:

I decided to leave the site alone for a couple of days to see if time would settle the dust and some serious debate would begin in here.

Boy oh boy the post election bitterness of defeat still hangs in the air ,like old worthless cordite.

It reminds me of so many sporting contests where drunks in pubs mutter of what might have been,how bad the referee was ,the weather didnt suit them,if only if only if only .

Its over- the people have spoken.

Live with it .... you lost .

get used to it.

Ok as a party activist I would hope to see if Enda can get the numbers. But I have to think with my head and everyting says no he wont. Most people in FG hate the PD's and I think the PD's know this. If we were to form a colation it would be miles too crowded, FG, Lab, Greens, PD's and Indo's. It just would not work. Every block having a diffrent agenda it would be very shaky to say the least.

What I am going to focus on is to contiune helping the party build on the sucess of this election so next time we can increase our seats in the dail on the next election. The next election might come sooner rather than later if the Mahon tribunal finds Bertie did lie and there would be a vote of no confidance in the dail. But thats only one possible outcome. It could come to the FF, PD's and Indo's go the full 5 years.

E92

Though not a member of Fine Gael(yet) I would hate to see the party go into Government at this moment in time. Far better off to build on the progress we have made on the past 5 years. I said a few days ago that all Enda is doing is s*it stirring and its working spectacularly well. Maybe Feel and Fail will go into Government with the Greens. Then between us and Labour will be able to steal those Green seats back. The only lifeline for the PDs is Government and if the Greens get in and the PDs dont we will kill 2 birds with one stone and that will mean that there will be only 4 parties, namely the two and a half parties that were always there and the Shinners, as I said in another thread they are not by any means gone. If they dont gain seats next time around then they will be gone too, and 2 and a half parties return.

Whats fascinating is that the Sinn Fein people are very critical of their usage during the election of their leadership,people who spend most of their lives living in a different country(Gerry Adams for instance, AFAIK Martin Mc Guiness doesnt have a residence in this country(that before a Sinn Fein person tells me is what ye call 'the South')), and whose performance was indicitive of someone who doesnt pernamently reside in this country.
Funny that when I remember telling Sinn Fein supporters on this board that their leader did not represent the views of the people of this country, (some were outraged at my suggestion which is factually correct as Mr Adams whilst boasting a summer house in Donegal spends most of his time living in Belfast), that they now agree with when I said they should have used Caomhin O Caolán(in the TV debate) who IS Sinn Féins leader in this country, sure the way Sinn Fein go on you'd swear that the island was all under the control of the same state.

jjbrien

E92 wrote:

Whats fascinating is that the Sinn Fein people are very critical of their usage during the election of their leadership,people who spend most of their lives living in a different country(Gerry Adams for instance, AFAIK Martin Mc Guiness doesnt have a residence in this country(that before a Sinn Fein person tells me is what ye call 'the South')), and whose performance was indicitive of someone who doesnt pernamently reside in this country.
Funny that when I remember telling Sinn Fein supporters on this board that their leader did not represent the views of the people of this country, (some were outraged at my suggestion which is factually correct as Mr Adams whilst boasting a summer house in Donegal spends most of his time living in Belfast), that they now agree with when I said they should have used Caomhin O Caolán(in the TV debate) who IS Sinn Féins leader in this country, sure the way Sinn Fein go on you'd swear that the island was all under the control of the same state.

I think the shinners think that they can still be deal makers in relationship to the present dail. The Irish electrate have put most of what shinn fein stand for behind them. FF are way behind most of the political parties here. It will take them a couple of years to leave most of thier old fashioned policies behind them.

With the new burst of TD's we got in this election FG can now become a more dominant opposition and hopefully will make us more attractive to new members. I for one am exausted at present after a very hard but rewarding election campaign. Lets build on what we have hopefully labour will get the same bounce we got after the last election and we will be sitting in the driving seat in 5 years time.

brianthebard

Bond-007 wrote:

FG's biggest mistake was running extra candidates in areas where they would have got a running mate in if FG HQ had not imposed extra candidates. Waterford, Carlow/Kilkenny. That combined with the arrogance of the sitting FG TD caused their downfall.

That's true, I think FF managed their campaign on a national level much better. FG ran three candidates in Sligo, but only managed to get one in. In contrast they only ran one candidate in Kerry north, who was elected on the first count with a large surplus. His preferences could've carried a second FG candidate in as well. In contrast, FF ran two candidates in Sligo and got two seats.

Liam Byrne

bemmet wrote:

I decided to leave the site alone for a couple of days to see if time would settle the dust and some serious debate would begin in here.

Boy oh boy the post election bitterness of defeat still hangs in the air ,like old worthless cordite.

It reminds me of so many sporting contests where drunks in pubs mutter of what might have been,how bad the referee was ,the weather didnt suit them,if only if only if only .

Its over- the people have spoken.

Live with it .... you lost .

get used to it.

I'm not a member of any political party, so I didn't lose anything, and I've no reason to be bitter.

I am, however, pretty peeved at the way Bertie & Co managed to waste so much of my hard-earned tax money and allowed house prices to go way beyond what an average person can afford.

And I'll be doubly-peeved if it turns out what, while doing that, he got his own house under dodgy circumstances; if he did, he can rot in hell or in one of McDowell's OLD jails.

So - nothing for me to live with, apart from the fact that if FF manage to do their maths and get themselves back in, they appear to have been given carte blanche to waste even more of our money. :mad:

E92

jjbrien wrote:

I think the shinners think that they can still be deal makers in relationship to the present dail. The Irish electrate have put most of what shinn fein stand for behind them. FF are way behind most of the political parties here. It will take them a couple of years to leave most of thier old fashioned policies behind them.

With the new burst of TD's we got in this election FG can now become a more dominant opposition and hopefully will make us more attractive to new members. I for one am exausted at present after a very hard but rewarding election campaign. Lets build on what we have hopefully labour will get the same bounce we got after the last election and we will be sitting in the driving seat in 5 years time.

I dont think we can start popping the Champagne Corks about the demise of Sinn Fein for another while yet, jjbrien. Remember what was said about Fine Gael 5 years ago. The way people were talking about Fine Gael back then you would have sworn that we would even be smaller than Labour by now. Then people really started to think we wanted to kill ourselves by choosing Inda as party leader. And we all know where Fine Gael went in the Euros and local elections 3 years ago. I attribute Enda to our recovery and the members, councillors, TDs etc to helping that recovery translating into extra seats and increasing the vote. It would be of great assistance to the demise of Sinn Féin is for Fianna Fail to get that seat from them in Dublin for the Euros. And for them to remain static in the locals. Or alternativly for FF to get back seats from them and we in turn get some some FF seats. Either way if Sinn Fein go nowhere in the locals uts hard to see where they will go from there.

I dont know where Labour are going to get the extra seats from. They're not going to get them from Fine Gael. Their big problem is the Greens, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. One of the virtues of a pact between Fine Gael and Labour is that by and large we dont take seats from one and other, because we appeal to different sections of the electorate. Labour get votes in areas that we would never appeal to and vice versa. whereas the people who vote FF could easily vote Labour. There are people in poorer parts of the country who should vote Labour but vote FF instead, ironic when one considers how many people who are very well off vote for FF too. Sinn Fein are also a big threat to Labour, again appealing to electorate who would have once voted Labour. What would really help Labour is if the Greens went into Government with FF and the demise of Sinn Fein. Labour can blame Fine Gael all they want but they need to examine why people who should vote Labour dont vote Labour anymore. There is a left wing vote out there, and Labour should be able to capiutalise on it. As I say its their rival left wing parties like the Greens, Sinn Fein, even Fianna Fail that they need to worry about.

As for ourselves in Fine Gael, we have a very bright future ahead. We're getting in some excellent candidates in for the Future, like Leo Varadkar, Lucinda Creighton to name a few. Hopefully we will see plenty of these candidates in the coming years. Its fantastic to see so many young TDs in the party. Having young people like them helps to ensure that we keep getting the vote from young people. One of the reasons for Fine Gaels increase in the vote is that we were able to convince young people to vote for Fine Gael. While a disproportionate number vote for Sinn Fein and the Greens, our vote still stacks up very well with young people. FF's lowest level of support comes from young people, indeed in that exit poll RTÉ had it showed that while 1 in 2 people over 65 vote FF, 1 in 3 people from 18-35 vote for FF. Hence why FF were so keen to have the election on a Thursday,at a weekend it would have favoured us and particularly the Shinners and the Greens better. Then we are after getting back some quality candidates, like Alan Shatter and Brian Hayes for instance. I'm disappointed to see the loss of Dr Liam Twomey, and its such a pity that Mairéad Mc Guiness and Frances Fitzgerald didn't get in. I would have loved to have seen them in the Dáil. I said it before we have to build on our progress, that means consolidating the vote we got on Thursday and we need to break the 30% barrier next time. If we were to get 30 %, we would have close enough to 60 seats, and with a similar vote management, and Labour up even 1 or 2 % we would have an overall majority, maybe by the skin of our teeth, but nevertheless an overall majority. I think if the Greens go in with FF gaining the 2 of those 3% would be very attainable, and Labour would get 1 or 2% if the Greens went in with FF.

And that was a (rambling) party political broadcast on behalf of Fine Gael...

jjbrien

E92 wrote:

I dont think we can start popping the Champagne Corks about the demise of Sinn Fein for another while yet, jjbrien. Remember what was said about Fine Gael 5 years ago. The way people were talking about Fine Gael back then you would have sworn that we would even be smaller than Labour by now. Then people really started to think we wanted to kill ourselves by choosing Inda as party leader. And we all know where Fine Gael went in the Euros and local elections 3 years ago. I attribute Enda to our recovery and the members, councillors, TDs etc to helping that recovery translating into extra seats and increasing the vote. It would be of great assistance to the demise of Sinn Féin is for Fianna Fail to get that seat from them in Dublin for the Euros. And for them to remain static in the locals. Or alternativly for FF to get back seats from them and we in turn get some some FF seats. Either way if Sinn Fein go nowhere in the locals uts hard to see where they will go from there.

I dont know where Labour are going to get the extra seats from. They're not going to get them from Fine Gael. Their big problem is the Greens, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. One of the virtues of a pact between Fine Gael and Labour is that by and large we dont take seats from one and other, because we appeal to different sections of the electorate. Labour get votes in areas that we would never appeal to and vice versa. whereas the people who vote FF could easily vote Labour. There are people in poorer parts of the country who should vote Labour but vote FF instead, ironic when one considers how many people who are very well off vote for FF too. Sinn Fein are also a big threat to Labour, again appealing to electorate who would have once voted Labour. What would really help Labour is if the Greens went into Government with FF and the demise of Sinn Fein. Labour can blame Fine Gael all they want but they need to examine why people who should vote Labour dont vote Labour anymore. There is a left wing vote out there, and Labour should be able to capiutalise on it. As I say its their rival left wing parties like the Greens, Sinn Fein, even Fianna Fail that they need to worry about.

As for ourselves in Fine Gael, we have a very bright future ahead. We're getting in some excellent candidates in for the Future, like Leo Varadkar, Lucinda Creighton to name a few. Hopefully we will see plenty of these candidates in the coming years. Its fantastic to see so many young TDs in the party. Having young people like them helps to ensure that we keep getting the vote from young people. One of the reasons for Fine Gaels increase in the vote is that we were able to convince young people to vote for Fine Gael. While a disproportionate number vote for Sinn Fein and the Greens, our vote still stacks up very well with young people. FF's lowest level of support comes from young people, indeed in that exit poll RTÉ had it showed that while 1 in 2 people over 65 vote FF, 1 in 3 people from 18-35 vote for FF. Hence why FF were so keen to have the election on a Thursday,at a weekend it would have favoured us and particularly the Shinners and the Greens better. Then we are after getting back some quality candidates, like Alan Shatter and Brian Hayes for instance. I'm disappointed to see the loss of Dr Liam Twomey, and its such a pity that Mairéad Mc Guiness and Frances Fitzgerald didn't get in. I would have loved to have seen them in the Dáil. I said it before we have to build on our progress, that means consolidating the vote we got on Thursday and we need to break the 30% barrier next time. If we were to get 30 %, we would have close enough to 60 seats, and with a similar vote management, and Labour up even 1 or 2 % we would have an overall majority, maybe by the skin of our teeth, but nevertheless an overall majority. I think if the Greens go in with FF gaining the 2 of those 3% would be very attainable, and Labour would get 1 or 2% if the Greens went in with FF.

true very true. I would be more optimistic in thinking we would get 35% of first prefrence votes. Meaning we could possibly get 65+ seats. Im sure labour will sort themselfs out and get the left vote out even if they stay at 20 seats it means we could have 85 enough to form a goverment. I can see FF doing well at the next election thye woudl be well past thier sellby date at that stage.

Zaphod

brianthebard wrote:

In contrast they only ran one candidate in Kerry north, who was elected on the first count with a large surplus. His preferences could've carried a second FG candidate in as well.

Looking at the numbers, he had 1.3 quotas - a long way off getting another FG candidate in. And a considerable portion of his surplus transferred to SF (601) rather than to the "Alliance" - Lab (1302).

E92

jjbrien wrote:

true very true. I would be more optimistic in thinking we would get 35% of first prefrence votes. Meaning we could possibly get 65+ seats. Im sure labour will sort themselfs out and get the left vote out even if they stay at 20 seats it means we could have 85 enough to form a goverment. I can see FF doing well at the next election thye woudl be well past thier sellby date at that stage.

Oh if we were to get 35% of the vote 65 seats is very much attainable. When Garret was there they got 37% of the vote and 68 seats. I would imagine in the era of better vote management and transfers etc, we could get close to 68 seats on 35% too. Oh we would be home and hosed then. If Fine Gael were to even gain 6 seats next time,(a little tweaking here and there on 27 % of the vote would have gotten us 3 extra seats(addmittedly 2 are at the Greens expense),so all we have to do is get 2 % more of the vote, not a difficult task especially if the PDs dont get in to power and the Greens do) and labour and the Greens were to remain static, we would have the numbers, since you can have an overall majority on 83 seats technically(especially if you find some independent to be Ceann Comhairle). Similarly for Labour they had the votes to win 1 or 2 extra seats on Thursday last, with a little tweaking here and there. And with all the Greens changing tack every so often in the past few days, we wouldnt have to give too much away to them either, so definately no need to worry about them being in power either.

E92

Zaphod wrote:

Looking at the numbers, he had 1.3 quotas - a long way off getting another FG candidate in. And a considerable portion of his surplus transferred to SF (601) rather than to the "Alliance" - Lab (1302).

Yeah more of his surplus should have gone to Terry O'Brien however O'Brien blew it when he came out against Marks and Spencer wanting to open up in Tralee a very unpopular decision on his part, though Norma Foley of FF was on the same boat too, and she's not in the Dáil either. Were it not for that O'Brien could have taken out either Mc Ellistrim or more likely Ferris.

Badabing

So is Ireland back to a country of 2 1/2 parties? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael getting 150 seats between them and the rest making up the numbers.

E92

Well FF are on 78 and FG are on 51 giving you 129.
Throw in Labour and you have 149. That leaves 17 seats that arent for the 2 and a half parties
SF - 4
PD - 2
Greens - 6
Independents - 5

Zaphod

E92 wrote:

Yeah more of his surplus should have gone to Terry O'Brien however O'Brien blew it when he came out against Marks and Spencer wanting to open up in Tralee a very unpopular decision on his part, though Norma Foley of FF was on the same boat too, and she's not in the Dáil either. Were it not for that O'Brien could have taken out either Mc Ellistrim or more likely Ferris.

I still can't see it happening. Even if all of his 2868 surplus went to O'Brien, that would bring Lab to 7155 compared to 8030 for SF and 7367 for FF. O'Brien couldn't overtake either of them on subsequent transfers. The first preference vote for SF is too high and the elimination of Foley means McEllistrim would always be brought home ahead of O'Brien.

E92

Zaphod wrote:

I still can't see it happening. Even if all of his 2868 surplus went to O'Brien, that would bring Lab to 7155 compared to 8030 for SF and 7367 for FF. O'Brien couldn't overtake either of them on subsequent transfers. The first preference vote for SF is too high and the elimination of Foley means McEllistrim would always be brought home ahead of O'Brien.

True but what I meant was that if O'Brien in addition to getting better transfers from Deenahan, hadnt come out against M&S, he would have taken a seat, most likely Ferris's, whose vote is way down on 2002.

gandalf

I wonder is Jim McDaid going to throw some ointment into Berties plans

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

We might just have to take the calculator back from Enda and give it to Bertie (or whoever takes over running of FF).

Zaphod

E92 wrote:

True but what I meant was that if O'Brien in addition to getting better transfers from Deenahan, hadnt come out against M&S, he would have taken a seat, most likely Ferris's, whose vote is way down on 2002.

If O'Brien got all of Deenihan's transfers, and if he hadn't come out against M+S shopping centre and if he managed to take 1000 first perferences from Ferris and if Mars was aligned with Jupiter...

FG's performance in Kerry North with a gain of over 4000 votes was exactly mirrorred by Labs fall of almost 4500. They couldn't get a seat in 2002 even with the Spring name as backing and they hadn't a snowball's chance in hell in 2007.

cast_iron

gandalf wrote:

I wonder is Jim McDaid going to throw some ointment into Berties plans

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

We might just have to take the calculator back from Enda and give it to Bertie (or whoever takes over running of FF).

Wishful thinking...I think you'll find McDaid is looking out for his constituents - no more that is to be expected...