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Betfair Market Efficiency

  • 30-05-2007 1:12pm
    #1
    badbrian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 384 ✭✭


    I've thrown a few quid on the Goose for this week's Celtic Manor Golf (quality player - not a very strong field). Did it with high st bookie as they were 10/1 and it was only the same with Betfair (and then there is commission).

    Just now I was checking on BF and you can lay him at 9.5 while he is still a general 10/1 to back with the bookies.

    I would expect these arbs to be hoovered up almost instantaneously so why aren't they?
    (My modest means and the 5% commission wouldn't make it worthwhile for me but I would guess there are bigger punters with lower commssions and larger bankrolls).


Comments

  • #2
    Mezcita
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    Thing here is to put both prices in decimals.

    Current best bookie price on him is 11.0

    Current lay price is 10.5 over on Betfair.

    If you stuck a grand on him at the bookie and layed him at 10.5 you would get exactly a grand back with a standard 5% rate (assuming he loses).

    But if you had a rate of say 3% it would equal a guaranteed profit of €19.10 on a €1000 bet.


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