US military in Shannon a problem for FF

Voipjunkie

2 of the independents that FF are courting at the moment signed a pledge that they would not support any Government that allowed the US military to continue using Shannon Airport
namely Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory presuming they are as good as their word on the issue does this now scupper the PD independent option for FF as it seems highly unlikely that Bertie would be prepared to tell W that he can not land at shannon anymore.

Interestingly the none of the greens that were elected signed the pledge but it is party policy

3 labour TDs did sign the pledge

http://irishantiwar.org/index.adp

Akrasia

Voipjunkie wrote:

2 of the independents that FF are courting at the moment signed a pledge that they would not support any Government that allowed the US military to continue using Shannon Airport
namely Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory presuming they are as good as their word on the issue does this now scupper the PD independent option for FF as it seems highly unlikely that Bertie would be prepared to tell W that he can not land at shannon anymore.

Interestingly the none of the greens that were elected signed the pledge but it is party policy

3 labour TDs did sign the pledge

http://irishantiwar.org/index.adp

Pledges and policies are the first things to be sacrificed by most politicians when power is within grasp.

Rock Climber

I'd say he'll fudge the issue slightly giving them something of what they want on that score-inspections maybe.

It's not as big of a problem to be stern on Shannon these days now that there is a democrat anti war majority in congress.
Also with a bit of luck Hillary will be president at the end of next year and shur she loves Ireland.

Dave!

hmmm, the point hasn't been brought up in any media outlets....... I might email newstalk, maybe they'll put it to whomever they're interviewing tomorrow.

The independents all seem to be saying the same thing: that they'll negotiate with any potential government, and they'll lend their support to whoever will see their demands through.

Maybe Tony's forgotten that he signed it I suppose he wasn't expecting to be in this position.

Rock Climber

If you listen to the news at one online on RTE,David McCullagh spoke about it iirc.

Incidently what is the FG position on Shannon? If it's a problem for FF,I'd say Kenny would be slow to turf them out aswell.

DMC

DaveMcG wrote:

hmmm, the point hasn't been brought up in any media outlets....... I might email newstalk, maybe they'll put it to whomever they're interviewing tomorrow.

It was raised on the RTÉ News at One on t'radio.

People were voxpop'ed in Dublin Central today (Tony Gregory and Bertie land), and while its a noble trait, they are more interested in making sure their own area is looked after.

Voipjunkie

There is not just the issue of pissing off george W the locals in Shnnon area would not be best pleased remembering that Shannon has to stand on its own 2 feet these days removing US military planes would piss off the local FF support

If the 2 independents turned down FF on the issue of Shannon it would be very hard for the Greens even though they did not sign the pledge but it is party policy to stop the use of Shannon

As to whether Finian or Tony meant it McGrath seems to me to be someone of principle for example going out to colombia on the Human rights issue there are not many votes in that but he did it because he thought it was the right thing to do. And it seems to me that Finian and Tony come as a pair you get two or you get none.

Could this be the issue that opens the Door for FF Labour or might it put new impetus into Endas push presuming he will stop the shannon flights.

ninebeanrows

Com'on the Alternative...

83 seats without Jackie Healy-Rae

those 2 Indo's are pullable, the other 2 could be bribed.

And the PD's could be given 1 Ministership!!:D

Voipjunkie

FF has just started talks with the greens

Matt Cooper has just announced

The PDs turning down FG earlier I presume has meant that option is no longer viable

rickybutcher

I think they'll bottle it. The chances of either possible government telling the Americans that Shannon is closed until further notice is slim. I'd be shocked if in fact it did happen.

Voipjunkie

Bertie has just announced that their will be NO change in the current position at Shannon Airport

Seems like this is really taking legs

Apparently the greens have been taking advice from the German greens were the US also lands and have been adviced to be pragmatic and live in the real world perhaps this is why none of the current green parliamentary party signed the pledge

Lennoxschips

Greens and FF are complete poles apart. I can't see them forming a government.

Voipjunkie

Lennoxschips wrote:

Greens and FF are complete poles apart. I can't see them forming a government.

Remember what McDowell said FF are the bread the flavour is the smaller party

FF don't have any major principles that they would not change if needed The shannon airport thing is different it is not a principle for FF it is just not possible
but on issues like carbon taxes and investment in Public transport or dropping co location FF could go with all of them.

what might be a problem is the greens attitude to Europe but the greens have been threatening to move away from the anti EU position and without McKenna that might be easier

Zebra3

Voipjunkie wrote:

Bertie has just announced that their will be NO change in the current position at Shannon Airport

Betie also said he wouldn't sign Ireland up for the PfP.

Liam Byrne

Voipjunkie wrote:

There is not just the issue of pissing off george W the locals in Shnnon area would not be best pleased remembering that Shannon has to stand on its own 2 feet these days removing US military planes would piss off the local FF support

As more-or-less one of those "locals", I would be absolutely DELIGHTED to see Georgie boy told to FF-off and stop abusing our airport! It'll come a few years too late, but better late than never, especially since I had a PD canvasser lying through her teeth on my doorstep recently!

It's about bloody time FF were told to cop on and take the issue seriously; in fact, I'd LOVE to see a coalition attempt fail because of it!

Could this be the issue that opens the Door for FF Labour or might it put new impetus into Endas push presuming he will stop the shannon flights.

Oh, no! Not ANOTHER reason to regret the fact that Enda and FG didn't get in.....we have enough of those already!

Voipjunkie wrote:

The shannon airport thing is different it is not a principle for FF it is just not possible

Why, pray tell, is it "not possible" ? It's VERY possible, and considering that the majority of Americans are against the war, the backlash (if any) would be minimal. Are we not entitled to stand up for our principles ? 100,000 dead Iraqis is a hell of an indictment, regardless of how much we'd like not to piss off Bully George - it was his call to invade, he was wrong - why shouldn't he have to live with the direct consequences ? Or are we to stick by the U.S. regardless of WHAT he decides to do next ? What level of cock-up or war crime WOULD it take for us to say "hang on a sec, there, George...."

Voipjunkie

Liam Byrne wrote:

!

Why, pray tell, is it "not possible" ? It's VERY possible, and considering that the majority of Americans are against the war, the backlash (if any) would be minimal. Are we not entitled to stand up for our principles ? 100,000 dead Iraqis is a hell of an indictment, regardless of how much we'd like not to piss off Bully George - it was his call to invade, he was wrong - why shouldn't he have to live with the direct consequences ? Or are we to stick by the U.S. regardless of WHAT he decides to do next ? What level of cock-up or war crime WOULD it take for us to say "hang on a sec, there, George...."

It is not possible because in the real world FF are never going to tell George to **** off it just is not going to happen when Bertie has other options.

BTW I do not support letting the US use Shannon but that does not stop me being a realist and knowing that FF are not going to insult the US administration to keep Finian happy when they have easier options

Interestingly McGrath has now said that the shannon issue is NOT a deal breaker not much of a pledge apparently.

Voipjunkie

Liam Byrne wrote:

As more-or-less one of those "locals", I would be absolutely DELIGHTED to see Georgie boy told to FF-off and stop abusing our airport! It'll come a few years too late, but better late than never, especially since I had a PD canvasser lying through her teeth on my doorstep recently!

..."

Did you vote for FF or the PDs

Voipjunkie

Zebra3 wrote:

Betie also said he wouldn't sign Ireland up for the PfP.

Changing your position to suit the worlds only super power is always a possibility with FF changing it to go against them is not

Liam Byrne

Voipjunkie wrote:

It is not possible because in the real world FF are never going to tell George to **** off it just is not going to happen when Bertie has other options.

BTW I do not support letting the US use Shannon but that does not stop me being a realist and knowing that FF are not going to insult the US administration to keep Finian happy when they have easier options

That doesn't make it "not possible"....it just means that, yet again, Irish politicians don't have the balls to make the decision. Maybe "feasible" or "probable" is the word you're looking for ? But it's definitely "possible" - it just takes someone with conviction to decide to do it, and in doing so represent a huge number of people.

How many people ? I don't actually know, because Bertie & Co never gave us the option to discuss or vote on it. If they had, I'd accept the majority decision (like I have to after last week) but that, too, would be too big a call for them because they might actually have to follow through on the result.

So what you're saying is that Bertie is a cop-out ? What are these "other options" and what are their implications ? In another thread, people seemed to agree that without McDowell, Ahern & Blair would have rolled over on the "criminality" clause in the IRA wind-down....where would that have left us ? It's about time Bertie stopped rolling over and started actually doing his job!

Voipjunkie wrote:

Did you vote for FF or the PDs

I consider myself to have some standards of ethics and a healthy people/community-over-profit balance, plus a preference for people who actually set out to do what they promise and get that done, so what do you think ?

Voipjunkie

Liam Byrne wrote:

That doesn't make it "not possible"....it just means that, yet again, Irish politicians don't have the balls to make the decision. Maybe "feasible" or "probable" is the word you're looking for ? But it's definitely "possible" - it just takes someone with conviction to decide to do it, and in doing so represent a huge number of people.

How many people ? I don't actually know, because Bertie & Co never gave us the option to discuss or vote on it. If they had, I'd accept the majority decision (like I have to after last week) but that, too, would be too big a call for them because they might actually have to follow through on the result.

So what you're saying is that Bertie is a cop-out ? What are these "other options" and what are their implications ? In another thread, people seemed to agree that without McDowell, Ahern & Blair would have rolled over on the "criminality" clause in the IRA wind-down....where would that have left us ? It's about time Bertie stopped rolling over and started actually doing his job!

Well presumably people who voted for those who had not signed the pledge or whose party policy was not to stop the US using shannon did not particularly give a **** or it was not high on their agenda to say the least.


Could Bertie stop them yes of course he could will he not a ****ing hope that is why it is not possible

Liam Byrne

Voipjunkie wrote:

Could Bertie stop them yes of course he could will he not a ****ing hope that is why it is not possible

I know it's semantics at this stage, but it's the type of semantics that politicians thrive on if you let them (think George's "Saddam has WMDs" and you'll get my drift)

It IS 100% possible (you said yourself "yes of course he could"); it's just not likely given Bertie's chicken-out track record.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/possible
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/impossible
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/unlikely

Voipjunkie

Liam Byrne wrote:

I know it's semantics at this stage, but it's the type of semantics that politicians thrive on if you let them (think George's "Saddam has WMDs" and you'll get my drift)

It IS 100% possible (you said yourself "yes of course he could"); it's just not likely given Bertie's chicken-out track record.

]

No it is because bertie and co see nothing wrong with the US using Shannon and they are more concerned with helping the US to give a **** about the iraqis
There is also the fact that while you may not agree with them there are a sizable number of people in the area of shannon who believe that there is nothing wrong with profiting on the backs of other peoples misery and they vote FF.

So it is not possible that FF will change tack to accomodate an independent TD from Dublin McGrath has obviously recognised this as well maybe if he was FFs only hope they might do it because we all know that FF would seel their mother to stay in power but FF have other options and it is far easier to take those than deal with an irate white house and a back lash from those in the area. So while I can see FF dropping co location if needed dropping Bertie if they had to putting themselves on the wrong side of the US they will not do end of story.

SeanW

Would you blame them? The U.S. is one of our main trading partners, and has a whole bunch of US multinationals providing jobs here. And of course there's the fact that Shannon Airport has to survive on its own now - and for the good of the country too because the policies of the past hurt Ireland by deliberately harming Dublin.

There's too much at stake to just say "U.S. out of Shannon." Of course there is always the problem of these "extraordinary rendition" flights and what's going with those. My own view is that the planes should be inspected by the Army or senior Garda, to make sure there's nothing contrary to Irish or International law being carried therein.

It's only if the Americans object to a system of random inspections that we have a problem.

karen3212

SeanW wrote:

My own view is that the planes should be inspected by the Army or senior Garda, to make sure there's nothing contrary to Irish or International law being carried therein.

It's only if the Americans object to a system of random inspections that we have a problem.

I like that idea, as a start.

For the poster who sited 100,000 civilians, jaysus that really popped out at me, cause I remember even fox had a red banner with 250,000 alleged deaths on screen recently. Obviously alleged though.

What airport would the US use, if they couldn't use Shannon?

It makes me so angry that they can do whatever they like to whomever they like. It kills me that they can get away with it. I am so disgusted, I think New Zeland stood up to them on their own over something before, why can't we.

billy the squid

Rock Climber wrote:

If you listen to the news at one online on RTE,David McCullagh spoke about it iirc.

Incidently what is the FG position on Shannon? If it's a problem for FF,I'd say Kenny would be slow to turf them out aswell.

Kenny would be more than happy to stop US military flights at Shannon...as long as they went into knock instead.

lostexpectation

Rock Climber wrote:

I'd say he'll fudge the issue slightly giving them something of what they want on that score-inspections maybe.

It's not as big of a problem to be stern on Shannon these days now that there is a democrat anti war majority in congress.
Also with a bit of luck Hillary will be president at the end of next year and shur she loves Ireland.

The dems want to keep a garrison force in Iraq, and just voted in the funding( I don't think the even got the the bencmarks they were talking about let alone a timetable)

anyway random inspections of all private jets especially CIA ones would be one thing, that relates to rendition theres the bigger problem of the mass troop transport using civilian and military planes, what even small step could be made on that I don't know? they could firm up there promise to operate only under UN agreement but then that what the were supposed to before but they let the troops mass before the Iraq and how do we know the troops passing through today are not part of Iranian attack plan rather then part of the now UN mandated Iraq occupation.

it seems mcgrath ahs backed tracked on it being a crucial issue, he should say something like he wants to get shannon profitable without having to depend on military

redspider

Its a dealbreaker for the Green's from what I'm hearing (ie: they want US flights stopped), and most likely for Tony Gregory as well.

That leaves:

FF+PD+3 Inds = 78 + 2 + 3 = 83

and not enough to form a Government, never mind a stable one, with or without McGrath bending his scruples on it.

Ireland dont need these US military flights. The opinion of the US people is now something like 75% against the Iraq war, and businesses have always been more liberal in their approaches and less right-wing in terms of dealing with problematic and dipolamtic/political situations. Most of the US managers in the US companies over here and those with executive powers back in the US couldnt give 2 hoots whether Ireland allows US flights to land at Shannon or not. They are in the main equally concerned with rendition flights and many of them are equally concerned about the US's military spread throughout the world.

One use of having the US flights was that Ireland could trade that favour for other favours, such as perhaps illegal Irish imigrants, tax laws (ie: low tax in Ireland for US companies, not getting taxed in the US), ease of immigration to the US, etc. Also perhaps many of he Irish-American politicians would have liked Ireland to help out in the 'war effort' and the 'war against terrorism'.

Has Ireland a backbone? we will see .....

Redspider

ateam

I can't see this being an issue at all. At the end of the day Fianna Fail will dictate the nature of the coalition because they have the highest number of seats. If the Greens ever want some of their polices implemented, they have to compromise.

Zebra3

Do people seriously believe that US MNCs will decide to stay here or not on the basis of the availability of Shannon to the US war machine?

They're here to make money-end of story.

redspider

ateam wrote:

At the end of the day Fianna Fail will dictate the nature of the coalition because they have the highest number of seats.

dictate !=

FF = 78
FF+PD = 80

FG+Lab+GP = 51+20+6 = 77


I dont think there is anyone dictating the outcome, because if there was, it would have been done and dusted after a couple of days. You see, all these small parties have in fact a de facto veto on forming the next government with the current numbers, especially if no-one wants to include SF. Its all down to negotiation and how much each party wants it. If FF start dictating terms, they will fail to form a majority and they know that, given the state of the numbers.

Everything is up for negotiation ..... but there is no clear majority as things stand.

Redspider

ateam

redspider wrote:

dictate !=

FF = 78
FF+PD = 80

FG+Lab+GP = 51+20+6 = 77


I dont think there is anyone dictating the outcome, because if there was, it would have been done and dusted after a couple of days. You see, all these small parties have in fact a de facto veto on forming the next government with the current numbers, especially if no-one wants to include SF. Its all down to negotiation and how much each party wants it. If FF start dictating terms, they will fail to form a majority and they know that, given the state of the numbers.

Everything is up for negotiation ..... but there is no clear majority as things stand.

Redspider

I see your point. But the figures speak for themselves. FF have the majority of seats and are therefore in a much more commanding position than Fine Gael. Bertie is a master of negotiation, so there is no problem there.