Good system for football

zuutroy

Seems this one is pretty well known, but I came up with it independently I swear! It's fairly fool proof, but the profits are quite small (but consistent).
Just publishing here for those who've never heard it:

1. Lay the draw before the match.
2. When the first goal is scored the price of the draw should go up if you pick your games right. More about this below. So then you back the draw.
3. Green up your trade on all 3 outcomes.

Thats it in its simplest form, but you need to be a bit careful. If you pick a lopsided game like say Man U at home to Wigan and wigan happen to go a goal up, the price of the draw will come in, so you'll be on a loser. Of course the chance of this happening is quite low and the draw will shoot out if Man U score first so it can pay off, but for security always go with evenly matched games where both teams are over 2 ish and the draw is around 4.
In this case, if the home team scores first you'll make money, if the away team scores first you'll at least break even.
The last question is, what happens it's 0-0. Obviously you lose your entire liability on laying the draw. The first way around this is to go to the correct score market and back the 0-0 so that you win enough to cover your liability on a 0-0. However, your stake for this bet will eat up most of your winnings from the match odds market if it isn't 0-0.
The second way is to use your football knowledge to pick games where you're fairly sure there'll be a goal. In fairness a 0-0 is a very rare result, and I'm wondering if it's worth the bother of covering your liability, so I'm thinking of switching to say 'half-coverage'.

The ONLY way you can lose on this one is if a team scores, then the other team scores while the market is suspended or while you are completing your trade.
Thoughts?

badbrian

zuutroy wrote:

It's fairly fool proof, but the profits are quite small (but consistent).

Sounds like a lot of trouble for a small return. I don't think the odds on a 0-0 are as long as you think. For instance England Brazil tonight is about 9/1 on betfair and betfair being an efficient market would suggest that a 1 in 10 or 10% chance of this happening.

Wouldn't be for me. What would be more interesting is how long you have been using the system. What has your return been to your average stake.
Do you cover the 0-0 scoreline (or better again is to bet on no goalscorer - in the case of an own goal being scored) and how many 0-0 scorelines have been in the results of matches you've played this system.

Also I often find 90 minutes of football tedious to watch and by the sounds of it you have to watch live games to use this.

Just my 2 cents. Not suggesting it doesn't work but sounds like a lot of trouble for not much return.

zuutroy

It is indeed a lot of trouble for a small return, but its quite close to a certainty and if you have a big bank you can make money I think. I dont watch the matches, I just leave the live score page on bwin.com open and theres a noise when a goal is scored so I can be watching telly or whatever.

I have only been doing it for a few weeks, but others swear by it. I think you can make around 8% of your intial liability of the draw on average. That of course drops to only 2-3% if you cover the 0-0.

The 0-0 occurs about 7.5% of the time, but half of these are very easy to weed out. I've had none so far in my few bets...which means I've thrown away most of my profit covering it!

Aedh Baclamh

Big bank? Say there isn't enough liquidity in the market to meet your demands and you end up not getting your bet matched?

zuutroy

Aedh Baclamh wrote:

Big bank? Say there isn't enough liquidity in the market to meet your demands and you end up not getting your bet matched?

The match odds market is as good as it gets...if you dont get your bets matched under that system, you wont get them matched under any other!

Bernard Hopkins

what about when it is 60 minutes gone and theres still no goal ?.....at what point do you get worried that there may not be a goal at all ?

check out the "HALF-TIME DRAW" PRICE on a 90 minute game. .....

0-0 at half time is always a favourite,...... then no more goals would be approx 11/4........

i mean ,...... you might as well just lay 0-0 correct score for your 7.5 % profit in the first place ?

also if chelsea play charlton,...... and charlton score first,.... the price for a draw should be even shorter than ever ?

sorry, im just being objective here, but i've been trading the no goals market for the last few years, and i know only too well how quickly your value disappears as the game unfolds !!

you only need to get stung once ,... then you have to win your next 10 or 12 bets to cover that loss.

zuutroy

Bernard Hopkins wrote:

what about when it is 60 minutes gone and theres still no goal ?.....at what point do you get worried that there may not be a goal at all ?

You back the 0-0 to cover it as explained in the original post.

Bernard Hopkins wrote:

also if chelsea play charlton,...... and charlton score first,.... the price for a draw should be even shorter than ever ?

Yep, this seems to be a downfall....also explained above..you gotta pick em well.

Hoops1888

I dont see many draws at 3/1.

I do agree however doing Draws at H/T can pay off big time. Games like Chel/Man U. Arsenal/Liverpool etc etc, or champions league games very good bet and you always get evens or more.

zuutroy

Hoops1888 wrote:

I dont see many draws at 3/1.

Well the draw happens ~25% of the time, which is 4.0 on betfair or 3/1, so you should see it a fair bit!

Bateman

I thought about it at various stages, but don't have the discipline to follow it. Like any other "system" though, I'm sure if you pick your games carefully enough, you'll make money in the long term. With discipline, sports betting really isn't very difficult.

iwincosimcool

I don't get it, why dont you just lay a 0-0 If the only way your gonna lose Is If it's a 0-0?

zuutroy

iwincosimcool wrote:

I don't get it, why dont you just lay a 0-0 If the only way your gonna lose Is If it's a 0-0?

Well, if you're not covering your liability by backing the 0-0 then it is the same I suppose!