What is happening to the Greens

Heinrich

Link

So Mr Gormley is sorting out the marriage bed. When he made his Planet Bertie speech the Greens faithful were urged to make their choice. Are he and Sargent now going to flip-flop?

Will Ms Harney get into the bed with the Greens after that lamp post altercation with MacDowell?

A few thoughts on a sunny Tuesday morning. Answers on a brown envelope etc.:rolleyes:

keithrus

Does anyone feel that the greens will have much economic clout as the pds did if they come into power with FF? Will Mary Harney remain as PD?

Well its the logical choice after the election I suppose and shrewd/opportunist on the part of the greens.

Anyone with an ounce of political savvy before the election should have known that the only party that they could have voted for that for certain wouldnt go to bed with ff was fine gael.
Nearly 3/4 of the country voted for possible ff bed fellows-thats a fact-even if the media up to the last week had us hoodwinked.
In the last few days the likelyhood of ff involvement with either the greens or labour despite the plattitudes(which a combination of numbers and pragmatism was always going to trumph) increased markedly and must have been on voters minds.

Gael

I don't see these talks coming to anything to be honest. I don't see FF giving the Greens enough to keep the membership happy. And even then, it has to get a two thirds majority at a special members convention.
But talks like this are good to make sure FG/Labour never take the Greens for granted in future.

nollaig

i cant see it happening either, the donations issue is just too obvious. I cant see how either party will agree to the others viewpoint.

Mick86

Perhaps the carrot of power dangling in front of the Green Donkey's Nose will overcome those silly principles. The Greens should beware of the fate of SF and the PDs, support and the promise of support for FF proved a little toxic for those two parties.

LuckyLloyd

The Green party would be doing a disservice to those who voted for them if they refused to enter negotiations with Finna Fail. The best way to justify their mandate and implement some of their policies is to be in Government. That is political reality folks. It shouldn't surprise anyone.

Mick86

LuckyLloyd wrote:

The Green party would be doing a disservice to those who voted for them if they refused to enter negotiations with Finna Fail. The best way to justify their mandate and implement some of their policies is to be in Government. That is political reality folks. It shouldn't surprise anyone.

All parties are going to jump at the chance of participating in government. The only drawback is how much of their core beliefs are the Greens going to abandon to go into coalition. Again they look to the PDs, A Warning From History.

joecoote

FF if nothing else always look to the future. We are not going to see growth like we've seen over the last ten years. They have to look for a new angle to lure voters in the next elections. The Greens will soften FF's pro-developer image. God know what they can hang on the Greens if things really get bad. Its a win for FF.

bk

Mick86 wrote:

The Greens should beware of the fate of SF and the PDs, support and the promise of support for FF proved a little toxic for those two parties.

But here is the thing, the green party claim to be idealists. They claim not to care about politics and political power and to only be in politics in order to bring forth policy change on the environment, etc.

If this is true, then they have no choice but to form a government with FF. For it is only in government will they be able to get their agenda across. Even if it means that in the long term the green party are wiped out by FF.

It might seem strange, but the PD's nearly being wiped out is due to their incredible success!! The PD's once radical policies of privatisation, low taxation, etc. are now the core mainstream policies of both FF and FG.

If the greens are the real idealists that they claim to be, they then should welcome the day when their polices become core FF and FG policies and the Greens are no longer needed.

Voipjunkie

Tristrame wrote:

Well its the logical choice after the election I suppose and shrewd/opportunist on the part of the greens.

Anyone with an ounce of political savvy before the election should have known that the only party that they could have voted for that for certain wouldnt go to bed with ff was fine gael.
Nearly 3/4 of the country voted for possible ff bed fellows-thats a fact-even if the media up to the last week had us hoodwinked.
In the last few days the likelyhood of ff involvement with either the greens or labour despite the plattitudes(which a combination of numbers and pragmatism was always going to trumph) increased markedly and must have been on voters minds.

The Greens never ruled out doing a deal with FF they said they would prefer not to but never said they would not if the numbers added up although I believe Sargent said he would not lead the party into such an arrangement although he would take a cabinet position which seems a bit of dancing on the head of a pin stuff.
The point is that anyone who voted for the greens although they may have prefered the alliance should have been aware that the greens would do a deal with FF if the numbers stacked up.

Interesting though that FF are not putting all their eggs in a green basket as they have opened a dialogue with Micheal Doncaster Lowry

Voipjunkie

Mick86 wrote:

All parties are going to jump at the chance of participating in government. The only drawback is how much of their core beliefs are the Greens going to abandon to go into coalition. Again they look to the PDs, A Warning From History.

That said it should be remembered that the PDs doubled their seats after the 2002 election it seems that the PD allowed themselves to be boxed into the 2 no win ministries thinking they would get brownie points for taking them on instead they got the blame for the things that were wrong the 2 big issues crime and health and FF were able to blame the PDs for both of them

If the greens take on something were they might be able to make a change for the better without getting bogged down like the PDs did in Health and Justice something like the plastic bag levies or the ban on burning coal that are popular can payback big time.
Maybe the department of Transport if they can bring investment and change rather than the confrontation that Brennan brought then they could make a big difference in Public Transport accross the country

Maybe the department of enviroment if they reform car taxation so it more adequately reflects emissions than just engine size

redspider

So, Day-3 of FF/GP negotiatons are over and days 4 and 5 beckon. It would seem to me from reading between the lines of the very little that the parties are saying is that both parties are willing to work mainly on the common ground and 'agree to disagree' (and hence ignore when in power perhaps) issues that they cannot resolve.

That may be the angle they will be trying to sell to their followers and grass roots. I think FF will have the much easier sell, as they have had to cross such points of 'conscience' in the past and have in fact done their 'deal with the devil' before for power, as in working with the PD's, several times. So working with the Greens will be relatively easy.

Its unclear what will happen in the Green's case. Cuffe is still right, it is, from the Green's viewpoint, working with the devil. And its not clear just how many of the party will fully support a deal with FF, even if some Green Party policy is implemented. There is no onus on the Green's to go into power now. However, there is ample evidence across Europe that Green Party's tend to have a lifecycle, gaining in support, becoming a coalition partner, and then as green policies become accepted and mainstream, slowly losing support to become a peripheral entity. Indeed, the Green Party in Ireland are not that big with 6 seats out of 166, something like over 4% of seats. They would not be wielding any power only for the way the numbers have landed. Many of their TD's and leading lights may see this as an appropriate time to compromise. Many of the grass roots may not. It wont be an easy time for the Green's, nor will it be easy when problems arise in government as they clearly will.

bk wrote:

But here is the thing, the green party claim to be idealists. They claim not to care about politics and political power and to only be in politics in order to bring forth policy change on the environment, etc.

If this is true, then they have no choice but to form a government with FF. For it is only in government will they be able to get their agenda across. Even if it means that in the long term the green party are wiped out by FF.

If the greens are the real idealists that they claim to be, they then should welcome the day when their polices become core FF and FG policies and the Greens are no longer needed.

There is a good deal of truth in that and evidence across Europe suggests the same as Green Parties have tended to fail to 're-invent' themselves sufficiently. The name is a problem in itself! But they are not necessarily idealists. They are pratical too and have some practical solutions to the problems that the incumbents are either ignoring are are just too inept or lazy to deal with, take your choice.

Tristrame wrote:

In the last few days the likelyhood of ff involvement with either the greens or labour despite the plattitudes(which a combination of numbers and pragmatism was always going to trumph) increased markedly and must have been on voters minds.

The FF/GP is not a done deal yet and was not a case of it or FF/Lab 'always going to triumph'. Both parties are treading on new ground. And the FF/Lab deal of 1992 is still a wound felt by Labour so they didnt have it on their agenda this time.

FF will be looking to spread their reliance and so will want the PD's plus as many independents as they can muster. If they can get 3 Independents, then the balance would be 78+2+3+6x GP's.

Its still up in the air ....

Redspider

Mick86

Mick86 wrote:

The only drawback is how much of their core beliefs are the Greens going to abandon to go into coalition.

Whats the use of core beliefs if you stay out of government and never impliment them?
A government programme either with the rainbow or FF was only going contain some of their policies.

Unless you think they could survive as a party if they said they'd never go into coalition and aspired to only a green majority government-as likely a prospect as an elephant spaceship.

redspider

redspider wrote:

Its still up in the air ....

Redspider

Oh I'd agree.The Ahern as Taoiseach bit isn't though.
As for Labour-it is a question that was on a lot of voters minds on may 24th though independent of the fears labour had about it.

bk

redspider wrote:

And the FF/Lab deal of 1992 is still a wound felt by Labour so they didnt have it on their agenda this time.

There is an interesting point to be made about this. When Labour was in this government with FF the polls was showing that they were running at over a very healthy 20%, with high satisfaction rates.

It was only after they pulled out of government with FF and formed the rainbow government did their polling start to drop and they did very badly in the next election. Now many Labour supporters believe that they did badly in the election because they were in bed with the evil FFers, even though the polls don't show this.

My own opinion is that most ordinary voters aren't idealists, they don't care about politics, they just want a stable government and at max they are only bothered with elections once every five years. So if you are seen as the party who collapsed a stable government, like Labour did (and over something relatively minor), then you will be punished by the electorate. It looked like Labour were immature and irresponsible. It had nothing to do with being in power with FF.

Something for the Greens to keep in mind while in government.

redspider wrote:

FF will be looking to spread their reliance and so will want the PD's plus as many independents as they can muster. If they can get 3 Independents, then the balance would be 78+2+3+6x GP's.

Its still up in the air ....

At least Enda has finally shut up about the impossible.

Heinrich

bk wrote:

At least Enda has finally shut up about the impossible.

or maybe playing his cards close to his chest.;)

is_that_so

bk wrote:

My own opinion is that most ordinary voters aren't idealists, they don't care about politics, they just want a stable government and at max they are only bothered with elections once every five years. So if you are seen as the party who collapsed a stable government, like Labour did (and over something relatively minor), then you will be punished by the electorate. It looked like Labour were immature and irresponsible. It had nothing to do with being in power with FF.

Something for the Greens to keep in mind while in government.

Agreed on the electorate in general.

I don't think the Greens fit the pattern of an Irish political party. They are as they say an alliance and movement. They also set themselves up as an organisation with principles. This is why those who voted for them did so. The Greens are not for everyone, but they could seriously undermine their base and reputation by compromising on core ideals. Even if the rest of the population has given up on ideals there are still a few around who have them.

As for Labour - well at the time IIRC they got punished, and I am sure ex Labour people here will verify this, for doing the FF deal and for turning out to be no different than any other party. The Spring tide created quite a buzz at the time and brought in a lot of new members to the party.

As to the question itself. Well the Green's weekend meeting will tell , assuming they come to an agreement with FF. Not convinced the deal will happen myself but stranger things have happened.

Heinrich

Will the Greens be having discussions with Fine Gael afterwards?

bk

is_that_so wrote:

I don't think the Greens fit the pattern of an Irish political party. They are as they say an alliance and movement. They also set themselves up as an organisation with principles. This is why those who voted for them did so. The Greens are not for everyone, but they could seriously undermine their base and reputation by compromising on core ideals. Even if the rest of the population has given up on ideals there are still a few around who have them.

Well that is the issue, if they ever want to get into government, they are going to have to compromise on some of their ideals. That is what all politics is about. If they don't compromise, then they will never get into government and non of their policies will ever get implemented. At least in government at least some of your policies will get implemented and in the longer term you can push your view on the other policies. This is exactly what the PD's did very well.

is_that_so wrote:

As for Labour - well at the time IIRC they got punished, and I am sure ex Labour people here will verify this, for doing the FF deal and for turning out to be no different than any other party. The Spring tide created quite a buzz at the time and brought in a lot of new members to the party.

Yes that is what hard core Labour supporters say, mostly because they don't like FF, but it is not true according to all the polls carried out over the period. When in government with FF, Labour were doing very well in the polls, when they broke with FF and joined the rainbow, their support in polls dropped by almost half and it was reflected in the election.

is_that_so wrote:

As to the question itself. Well the Green's weekend meeting will tell , assuming they come to an agreement with FF. Not convinced the deal will happen myself but stranger things have happened.

It is time for the Greens to put up or shut up. This is a big test for them, are they mature enough to compromise, go into government, get at least some of their policies implemented and influence the government on the direction of all other policies.

Or are they going to walk away because they don't get everything they want and probably end up as a mad fringe party unlikely to ever get into government.

bk

Heinrich wrote:

Will the Greens be having discussions with Fine Gael afterwards?

At the moment they say they are having exclusive talks with FF. They could talk to FG later if these talks fall through, but it would be pointless as they don't have the numbers to form a non FF government.

It is looking highly likely that the deal is going to be done with FF, Greens and PDs.

jjbrien

bk wrote:

At least Enda has finally shut up about the impossible.

He spoke again yesterday saying there still was a possibility of goverment with FG/Lab/Greens but this not likley. He is only sturring it up for FF.

I myself can only see FF in goverment with the Greens no matter what Enda thinks.

jjbrien

bk wrote:

At the moment they say they are having exclusive talks with FF. They could talk to FG later if these talks fall through, but it would be pointless as they don't have the numbers to form a non FF government.

It is looking highly likely that the deal is going to be done with FF, Greens and PDs.

The PD's are not needed in this equaction FF+Green+Cean Chorile=85 enough for a majority they could get Healy Rae to back them as a backup.

oscarBravo

Tristrame wrote:

...as likely a prospect as an elephant spaceship.

*cough*

Mick86

Voipjunkie wrote:

That said it should be remembered that the PDs doubled their seats after the 2002 election it seems that the PD allowed themselves to be boxed into the 2 no win ministries thinking they would get brownie points for taking them on instead they got the blame for the things that were wrong the 2 big issues crime and health and FF were able to blame the PDs for both of them

Yes the PDs were successful in 2002 and what was the policy that they harped on and on about? Put us in to watch FF. They failed and the electorate paid them out. Same applies to the Greens. If they abandon their core policies the electorate will make them pay.

Voipjunkie wrote:

Maybe the department of Transport if they can bring investment and change rather than the confrontation that Brennan brought then they could make a big difference in Public Transport accross the country

Maybe the department of enviroment if they reform car taxation so it more adequately reflects emissions than just engine size

I have a problem with the Greens on these issues. First they want to abandon the road building projects in favour of developing public transport. That's great for people in Dublin and Cork who have access to public transport. In the rest of the country it does not exist.

Secondly their Carbon Tax idea. Petrol is dear enough thank you. Not to mention the fact that car owners are taxed to the hilt already.

jjbrien wrote:

The PD's are not needed in this equaction FF+Green+Cean Chorile=85 enough for a majority they could get Healy Rae to back them as a backup.

I don't see the Greens staying in Coalition too long with FF. Depending on how successful the lawyers are in muzzling the Mahon Tribunal of course.

redspider

The FF/GP deal is looking more closer, but still needs to be sold to the grass roots.

Speaking after the end of talks yesterday evening, Minister Séamus Brennan said really good progress was made on a number of areas, but there were a number of outstanding issues still to be agreed. Mr Brennan added that they are conscious of the time constraint in the light of the Green Party's special conference on Sunday. The Green Party negotiating team left Government Buildings yesterday without talking to the media.

All paid up Green Party members will have a say in approving any deal at their weekend conference, but at this stage it is not possible to say whether they are likely to have anything to vote on.

any members like to comment?

jjbrien wrote:

The PD's are not needed in this equaction FF+Green+Cean Chorile=85 enough for a majority they could get Healy Rae to back them as a backup.

Just to be clear on the numbers:

FF have 78 seats which includes O'Hanlon, who was the Cean Comhairle in the last Dail.

So, FF + GP = 78 + 6 = 84, enough for a slim majority. However, that would leave FF beholden to GP to stay in power and give the GP more leverage than in this situation:

FF + GP + 3xInds + PD = 78 + 6 + 3 + 2 = 89

In that scenario, GP could threaten to walk on an issue, but FF + PD + 3 Inds would still equate to a slim 'majority', ie: 83.

The government is only as stable as the willingness of the parties that are 83 or greater to stay together.

Redspider

jjbrien

It seems to me not matter what happens then it will still be a rainbow goverment.

cm2000

quick question; if it is ff/green backed upby indos, will bookies pay out on a ff/green bet?

K-9

nollaig wrote:

i cant see it happening either, the donations issue is just too obvious. I cant see how either party will agree to the others viewpoint.

Can't see FF not reforming this after Bertiegate. It's how it's done is the problem. I don't think this will be a dealbreaker.

redspider wrote:

So, Day-3 of FF/GP negotiatons are over and days 4 and 5 beckon. It would seem to me from reading between the lines of the very little that the parties are saying is that both parties are willing to work mainly on the common ground and 'agree to disagree' (and hence ignore when in power perhaps) issues that they cannot resolve.

As you say that is up to the Greens membership but it is part of coalition. In the talks try and get as many of your policies in the partnership for Govt. and sell it as the best that you can get. People, to an extent have to trust their leadership. If the Greens aren't happy with it and think they can more in a 4 party plus Inds. Govt. well that is their choice. Govt. is about hard decisions not wishlists.

is_that_so wrote:

As for Labour - well at the time IIRC they got punished, and I am sure ex Labour people here will verify this, for doing the FF deal and for turning out to be no different than any other party. The Spring tide created quite a buzz at the time and brought in a lot of new members to the party.

It's something Labour members seem to have serious difficulty accepting. Labour benefitted from FG losing seats and FF leaving Govt in 92, just like Labour suffered in 97 from both parties gaining seats .

FG and FF regained these seats and 10 years later we're back to nearly the same situation pre the Spring tide. Maybe, instead of Labour blaming FF for the Spring Tide dissipating, they should accept that this was the exception in elections not the rule. Labour, it could be argued suffered after being in Govt. with FG from 82-87 also.

mike86 wrote:

Yes the PDs were successful in 2002 and what was the policy that they harped on and on about? Put us in to watch FF. They failed and the electorate paid them out. Same applies to the Greens. If they abandon their core policies the electorate will make them pay.

Ot it could be argued, FF made them redundant as the 02-07 Govt. wasn't as right wing as the 97-02 Govt. Other than Health there wasn't a major PD influence in the last Govt. Surely it's up to the Greens to get the best partnership for Govt. they can get and implement it.

jjbrien wrote:

It seems to me not matter what happens then it will still be a rainbow goverment.

jjbrien wrote:

I myself can only see FF in goverment with the Greens no matter what Enda thinks.

What?

I see the Greens and the PD, oops, I mean PD's, are putting the pressure on FF. Harney chatting to Enda and the Greens saying we need agreement tomorrow. Could see FF dragging this out to next week just to reinforce their hand.

FF don't mind the Greens or PD's flirting.:o

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Voipjunkie

Mick86 wrote:

Yes the PDs were successful in 2002 and what was the policy that they harped on and on about? Put us in to watch FF. They failed and the electorate paid them out. Same applies to the Greens. If they abandon their core policies the electorate will make them pay..

Just pointing out that Coalition need not destroy the smaller party the thing that the Greens have going for them that the PDs did not is that the PDs were very dependent on FF transfers to the extent that they became toothless with fear that keeping FF in tow my affect their transfers

Mick86 wrote:

I have a problem with the Greens on these issues. First they want to abandon the road building projects in favour of developing public transport. That's great for people in Dublin and Cork who have access to public transport. In the rest of the country it does not exist..

In fairness i think that want to focus on Public Transport not just on roads that the previous Governments have been guilty of i believe that they accept that the road network has to be improved from a road safety point of view as much as anything else but that building roads is not the solution which it is not that does not mean that we do not need roads it just means that just building roads will not solve anything.
Surely developing public transport would mean improving it were it exists and creating it where it does not.

Mick86 wrote:

Secondly their Carbon Tax idea. Petrol is dear enough thank you. Not to mention the fact that car owners are taxed to the hilt already..

It depends on how it is done but if it can be structured to encourage people to buy greener cars and not gas guzzling SUVs then it is a good idea besides petrol is going to just going to keep getting more expensive from here on in so something that encourages us to start using less of it is no bad thing

Mick86 wrote:

I don't see the Greens staying in Coalition too long with FF. Depending on how successful the lawyers are in muzzling the Mahon Tribunal of course.

I don't know the greens are also interested in showing us that they are responsible and not the bunch of tree hugging flakey flip floppers that they are protrayed as. That said the pressure on them will be much greater than it ever was on the PDs in a time of crisis