House prices in Charlesland.

tiptap

miju wrote: »

are you just lashing out "tried and trusted" lines for the laugh hammie?

for a start Ireland isn't like the states in that you can "hand back the keys". In Ireland if you do that after the bank has sold your property if theres still an outstanding balance on the mortgage they can (and will) come after you for the the remainder.

also what on earth makes you think rates are coming down, ESPECIALLY the news on Monday that eurozone inflation has climbed even higher and the word is that we may see another rate rise on the cards. one things for sure "at best" and more likely though they'll be static for rest of year.

btw still waiting on you to show rents aren't falling

they sure are falling

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/

DTinthegrove

Hammiepeters wrote: »

Regarding 110% morteges given out. Pure hype. Anyone who got 100% in Ireland were of the ''can afford'' bracket.

Any one who got a Mortgage over 30+ years were in the can't afford bracket, paying 100's thousands euros more in interest than a loan taken out over 20 Years.

The same folk will have been focused on the destruction of Bertie Ahern for the last few months. Now thats done, they can refocus their particlar idea of vision on their principle objective; wrecking our economy.

How can people talk down the market? Surely the VI's were not guilty of talking up the market to unrealistic levels were they? That along with 100%, 30-40 years mortgages for 6+ times income had nothing to do with the over valued price of houses did it? I thought it was all about supply and demand?

Supply at the moment. Over a years worth of second hand stock on the market (according to daft) all of which are taking longer and longer to sell. Demand, lower if not the same. Prices= Down Down Down.

With respect to rents, the market has turned over the past few months. The number of properties for rent on Daft has doubled to over 11,000 as people who can't sell are trying to rent instead. Supply (up) demand (the same or down) would suggest rent is falling.

******************************
Anyway, getting back to Charlesland. Those 3 bedroom houses at €450k and €465k have sold yet! How the hell are other expecting to sell at €545k :rolleyes:

I believe the demand is there for houses in Charlesland as its a great place to live BUT only at the right price. Obviously €450k is still too high at the moment.

tiptap

DTinthegrove wrote: »

Obvioisly €450k is still too high at the moment.

well said,
and in my opinion, I think they're going to go down to about 380k to be honest.

jackal

Everything is fine according to hammie.



Apart from the dastardly actions of the FTB's, who hammie reckons have destroyed the economy! (obviously on their days off from haranguing Bertie) Why could the FTB's not have just shut up and paid up, then everything would still be A-OK and our wonderful perpetual motion tiger economy could have continued FOREVER based on people buying and selling houses to each other. Remember kids... DEBT = WEALTH.

mikedragon32

mikedragon32 wrote: »

This thread is rapidly becoming repetitive and having discussed it with Eoin_S we're seriously considering closing the thread.

If contributors to this thread can't make a constructive discussion without petty point scoring, abuse, off-topic remarks or anything else we deem inappropriate, the thread will be closed and the offending posters can take a week off, courtesy of us.

You can't say you haven't been warned.

Reminder of the warning posted in NOVEMBER.

Hammiepeters

Merge with Good home wanted for rabbit.

miju

so with that pithy response i take you concede to the points hammie ?

jackal

Hammiepeters wrote: »

But you are still renting I presume and your assertion regarding falling rents is incorrect.

I am still renting. Have been in the place 6+ years. My rent has stayed the same for the last 2 years. It went up by 8% 2 years ago and about the same 2 years before that.

mikedragon32

Hammie,

Warning issued.

Everyone else, please read my warning above.

DonJose

Hammiepeters wrote: »

But you are still renting I presume and your assertion regarding falling rents is incorrect.

Over the period 27th March to the 2nd of April 2008 there were 574 rental price reductions recorded on Daft.ie. The average reduction was just under €100 per month or 6.5% of the asking rent.

http://irishpropertywatch.110mb.com/RENTAL/04_APR_2008/RENTAL_DROPS_04_APRIL_2008.htm

DTinthegrove

tiptap wrote: »

well said,
and in my opinion, I think they're going to go down to about 380k to be honest.

I see the IMF have issued a comprehensive report on the world housing market today stating Ireland as the most overvalued property market in the world.

It suggest a 33% drop from current prices would bring them back to the underlying fundermental price.

3 bed house in Charlesland €540 less 30% = €378. In line with what you were say in TipTap.

Arrr but sure what do they know, Ireland is different!

tiptap

DTinthegrove wrote: »

I see the IMF have issued a comprehensive report on the world housing market today stating Ireland as the most overvalued property market in the world.

It suggest a 33% drop from current prices would bring them back to the underlying fundermental price.

3 bed house in Charlesland €540 less 30% = €378. In line with what you were say in TipTap.

Arrr but sure what do they know, Ireland is different!

Hi DT,

Would you have a link by any chance for the report ?
Funny, I was only having a conversation with my next door neighbour yesterday and I said I wreckon they need to come down by at least 30% cause it's still so overvalued.

People are still saying "no way can it go down that much"
At the peak, people were saying the same thing, houses dropping by 100k in three months, it's happened before, and it WILL happen again, no question about it.

The better the German economy keep doing, the more they'll hike up their interest rates to keep inflation down, ====== bad news for Ireland !

DTinthegrove

I'm not very knowledgable on how to put links on here! Sorry.

BUT you will pick up a link from thepropertypin.com

Eoin

DTinthegrove wrote: »

I'm not very knowledgable on how to put links on here! Sorry.

BUT you will pick up a link from thepropertypin.com

If you put an address with the "www", it will automatically make the link for you. Otherwise you can put it in like this:

[noparse]The text for the link[/noparse]

Hammiepeters

Hammiepeters wrote: »

Fish, all of the above points have been raised, thrashed out, whatever on several occasions on this thread.
My point has always been; that conditions driven by negative sentiment, jitters, fear, nonsense,''true value'',scaremongering,etc. will ultimately be bad for the country.
At the moment forecasts range from 0 to 3% economic growth fot the year. The worst since the mid nineties. You; who I might add have always been a ''poor first home buyers'' protagananist;are now asserting that this is happy time for landlords with multiple properties? Well lets drink to that, hey.
Regarding 110% morteges given out. Pure hype. Anyone who got 100% in Ireland were of the ''can afford'' bracket. They will hand in keys and drive repossesion figures up. For the most part;true homemakers (for want of a better description) are feeling the pinch of rate increases but will benefit from cuts later in the year. Interestingly '' spiralling'' interest rate increases were part of the ''everythings f***ed '' mantra earlier in this thread.
The same folk will have been focused on the destruction of Bertie Ahern for the last few months. Now thats done, they can refocus their particlar idea of vision on their principle objective; wrecking our economy.

wow, what a post!
Which can be summarised by:
Doom mongers are talking negatively about the economy, which is causing a recession and house market crash?

questions about your post - do you think the Irish economy is based on sound fundamentals as the third month of record breaking unemployment figures would suggest otherwise and with that in mind do you believe it possible for doom mongers to talk a country into recession?


Lets be specific about Charlesland here. There is already a thread about the property market in general. What can Charlesland offer that other places cant - how can it insulate itself from the rest of the market? Can it?
The Greystones area, in my opinion, was always considered a "nicer" place to live. I think even in a downturn/recession/soft landing/boom even/whatever you want to call it (would hate to be termed a doom monger ) that its all about location location location.

Still questions about the overall local and national economy must be answered before you can say how high or how low prices can go in Charlesland.

bren2002

Hammiepeters wrote: »

... For the most part;true homemakers (for want of a better description) are feeling the pinch of rate increases but will benefit from cuts later in the year.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the ECB will drop it's rates later in the year, if anything I think they will remain steady through the summer and possibly even rise later in the year. The banks are losing a lot of money at the moment and are sitting on some risky loans to punters. Even if the ECB drops it's rates I don't think the banks will even pass on the full cut (may 50% of the cut is likely) to variable rate customers. Plus I think that as the fix rate periods of a lot of deals start coming to an end after all of the good times that banks rates for new deals will increase dramatically to reflect their increased risk and higher loan to value ratios. They know that some customers will not be able to get refinancing (because of negative equity) elsewhere and will screw the punters because of this.

Lin03

I was thinking of selling my 2 bed in Charlesland and renting for a year in the hope that I could still make a profit on my house now and maybe afford a 3 bed in a years time. What do people think? Is that a good idea or crazy?

miju

I have read of people doing this on other forums and one of my other halfs friends has done this also.

In essence though this is a reverse bet on falling house prices as opposed to "getting on the ladder and trading up".

Gurgle

Lin03 wrote: »

I was thinking of selling my 2 bed in Charlesland and renting for a year in the hope that I could still make a profit on my house now and maybe afford a 3 bed in a years time. What do people think? Is that a good idea or crazy?

Do you maths.
Take estate agent fees, legal fees, stamp duty (if applicable), a year's rent and the cost of moving twice into account and figure out the price reduction you would need for your plan to work.

Have you done that?

Got the percentage?

Now, go into Paddy Power and say 'what odds would you give me on house prices in Charlesland dropping by x% over the next year?

bren2002

I think you are the only one who can make this decision. It's a huge decision and risk. Also bear in mind that no one is buying at the moment so you may have to discount substantially on what you think your house is worth in order to actually get a sale.

miju

by the way , if you could negotiate 30k off the price of a house you could easily cover legal costs, rental costs in a year and do the move now

Fiachra2

The important thing to remember is that you are gambling. This is not a "shrewd investment decision" it is a pure gamble. In addition you are gambling with the most valuable asset you have and probably ever will have-your home.

It is probabable but not certain that house prices will continue to fall. It is POSSIBLE that they will fall quite significantly. But it is by no means certain that this will happen. So you have no level of certainty and if you get it wrong it will be nasty.

Consider the downside. As Gurgle correctly pointed out there are significant costs involved in your plan so you need a decent drop just to break even. If house prices fail to fall or indeed rise you will have lost a lot of money and be out of the property "ladder" which you worked hard to get on to.

Another point worth considering. If prices fall far enough you may be able to make the switch anyway because in a falling market expensive houses become relativly cheaper. If you have a house worth 100K and you want to buy one for 200K you need a100K mortgage. If both houses fall by 30% you only need a 70K mortgage.

DTinthegrove

Very honest report issued from www.Daft.ie today looking at asking prices in the first quarter of 2008. There has been a 7% drop in Wicklow on average.

The also comment on the amount of housing stock out there and how the sellers attitude is starting to changes as "you can't always get what you want".

These are facts with no/very little spin so it's worth a read if you are interested. It backs up the fact that there is demand, it hasn't gone away, BUT the price has to be right and sellers need to adjust there attitude if they really want to sell.

bren2002

DTinthegrove wrote: »

Very honest report issued from www.Daft.ie today looking at asking prices in the first quarter of 2008. There has been a 7% drop in Wicklow on average.

The also comment on the amount of housing stock out there and how the sellers attitude is starting to changes as "you can't always get what you want".

These are facts with no/very little spin so it's worth a read if you are interested. It backs up the fact that there is demand, it hasn't gone away, BUT the price has to be right and sellers need to adjust there attitude if they really want to sell.

Just a point on the above, the DAFT report shows a 7% drop in Asking Price not a 7% drop in selling price.

miju

are you trying to make out that prices are being bid back up after asking prices? because mortgage data would not support that theory too well

bren2002

DTinthegrove wrote: »

Very honest report issued from www.Daft.ie today looking at asking prices in the first quarter of 2008. There has been a 7% drop in Wicklow on average.

The also comment on the amount of housing stock out there and how the sellers attitude is starting to changes as "you can't always get what you want".

These are facts with no/very little spin so it's worth a read if you are interested. It backs up the fact that there is demand, it hasn't gone away, BUT the price has to be right and sellers need to adjust there attitude if they really want to sell.

miju wrote: »

are you trying to make out that prices are being bid back up after asking prices? because mortgage data would not support that theory too well

Quite the opposite actually.

miju

that'd make alot more sense alright

decokiernan

In terms of selling to make a profit that could be used to buy in a falling market, we did exactly that.

We sold our house and are currently renting. We have now booked one of the new apartments being built in Broomhall and saved over 150k as it is a new build and no stamp duty plus the dropping prices.

Apartments in Charlesland are still going for 400k while 10 minutes down the road they are going for 275k.

We now potentially have enough money to kick back for a few years plus the ever accumulating savings in the bank from a low mortgage.

loyatemu

where's Broomhall?

Lin03

decokiernan, sounds like you've done well.
I'm not sure we'd make that much of a profit if we sold now but the fact still remains that due to an expanding family we'll have to move from our 2 bed sooner or later so I think it may well be worth a gamble.

Thanks for all the replies.