House prices in Charlesland.

michaelsu

Hi there, I am person who want to buy a property which is 2 bed house in Charlesland. <<<snip>>>

Gurgle

decokiernan wrote: »

In terms of selling to make a profit that could be used to buy in a falling market, we did exactly that.

No you didn't:

decokiernan wrote: »

We sold our house and are currently renting. We have now booked one of the new apartments being built in Broomhall and saved over 150k as it is a new build and no stamp duty plus the dropping prices.

Apartments in Charlesland are still going for 400k while 10 minutes down the road they are going for 275k.

You sold your house and you're buying a cheaper property in a less sought-after development. Thats a different thing entirely.
-edit- not that I think it was a bad idea, Charlesland sounds like a massively overpriced PR extravaganza.

Mr Matt

michaelsu wrote: »

Hi there, I am person who want to buy a property which is 2 bed house in Charlesland, if anybody intresting please contact this e-mail address:
<<<snip>>> thank you.

make sure to check the build quality on things.... check the water boilers, thermostat connections, cracks in walls... repair status (many things are being replaced - radiators, cracks, bad grouting in between tiles)

decokiernan

Sorry but YES we did.

We sold our house for 450k. Booked an apartment for 275k, bought a section 51 property with a guaranteed rental income for 5 years and an apartment in Chicago with a guaranteed rental income for 3 years.

When house prices drop to realistic levels in Greystones we can rent out the apartment in Broomhall and purchase a house in Greystones.

We are also in the position that given Broomhall will not be finished until Jan 09 we can pull out whenever we want and buy a house.

We have also negotiated a lower rent in our C'Land apartment as the there is a such a wealth of empty properties.

I dispute that Broomhall area being less sought after given that all the apartments were sold within a week while C'Land still has houses for sale. So not so sought after at all.

Do C'Land houses come with free furniture, all kitchen appliances, Sky TV, Broadband, tiling and floors as new?

I agree not everyone is cut out to take the risks we have but at the end of the day its only money. He who dares Wins.

bren2002

decokiernan wrote: »

Sorry but YES we did.

We sold our house for 450k. Booked an apartment for 275k, bought a section 51 property with a guaranteed rental income for 5 years and an apartment in Chicago with a guaranteed rental income for 3 years.

I agree not everyone is cut out to take the risks we have but at the end of the day its only money. He who dares Wins.

Can I ask, do you know Chicago well?

Actually decokiernan I've spun off another thread - don't want to go off topic here.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=55661281

westcoast66

I've been monitoring house prices in Charlesland for over a year now and waiting for an opportunity to buy. I notice that there seems to be some kind of floor at 320K. Anyone think the asking prices will drop below this soon?

Looking back at the launch in '03/'04, I can see that the cheapest places were going for around 270K. So, adding in stamp duty and costs, this equals a purchase price of circa 290K.

This is uncannily close to an offer of circa 20% below 320K.

Fiachra2

I think if you go back through this thread you will see that your query has been discussed at length and really it is all very much a matter of opinion. For what its worth I would advise thinking about the following:
Read the papers to find about national trends. Whatwever is likely to happen nationally will also happen in Charlesland.

Dont worry about the the original price. That was determined by what people were pepared to pay in 03 and had nothing to do with any inherent value of the houses themselves. It is not at all impossible that they will drop below their original sales price.

The housing market is dropping steadily. I have not read anyone who does not have a vested interest in property who is arguing that it has reached the bottom. However it will eventually bottom out somewhere and then recover but recovery will probably be very slow. So if you hold on a bit you may miss the very bottom of the market but you will be able to buy a little above that and could well save yourself some money.

grudgehugger

Am keeping an eye on prices around Greystones/Delgany in general at the moment and I see that one of the 3 bed terraced houses is now down to 450 and still unsold...

Anyone care to speculate on how low things are going to go in this downward phase?

And do the people still asking for 520/525 have any chance of selling for within 10% of those prices???

EnoughSaid

What is the latest with house prices?

kingofthecastle

currently living in seabourne view and am looking to buy a mid terraced 2 bedroom house in charlesland, will b in a position to buy within 6 months - am i kidding myself in thinking €345000 will enough to secure one of these properties. all feedback appreciated

Eoin

kingofthecastle wrote: »

currently living in seabourne view and am looking to buy a mid terraced 2 bedroom house in charlesland, will b in a position to buy within 6 months - am i kidding myself in thinking €345000 will enough to secure one of these properties. all feedback appreciated

Moved to the mega-house prices thread.

Pablo Sanchez

The scary thing was they were selling for €430k only 18 months ago!

Really depends how desperate they are to sell but it would not amaze me if they tipped the €350k mark at some point.

bren2002

kingofthecastle wrote: »

currently living in seabourne view and am looking to buy a mid terraced 2 bedroom house in charlesland, will b in a position to buy within 6 months - am i kidding myself in thinking €345000 will enough to secure one of these properties. all feedback appreciated

I don't think you're kidding yourself at all. They are already at 375K*, you'd probably have your hand snapped off at 345K (cash) at the moment. So hold fire, if you have to wait 6 months start thinking closer to 300K

There are 6 priced between 375K & 385K listed on Daft.

miju

kingofthecastle wrote: »

currently living in seabourne view and am looking to buy a mid terraced 2 bedroom house in charlesland, will b in a position to buy within 6 months - am i kidding myself in thinking €345000 will enough to secure one of these properties. all feedback appreciated

It's pretty likely that you will be able to to easily TBH.

Most of the 2 beds are in the region of €370k - €380k going on current house price fall "official" trends of 1% per month (which is WAY lower than the reality but how and ever) so going on those figures.

€380k - 1% for 6 months = 6% = €22,800 . Throw in a cheeky offer or even wait for another couple of months and you should be able to easily

bren2002

Looking at the price history, there are a number of 2 bed houses that are dropping at a rate of 10K a month (that's about 2.5% per month) which would bring them close to 335K asking price in 6 months if that continued, but to be honest there isn't enough data available to extract those drops out to 6 months.

There's also a couple of 3 beds that have dropped 40K in 6 months.

miju

kingofthecastle what I would recommend you doing is install the free toolbar called Property Bee ( http://www.property-bee.com/toolbar/ ) (you have to use Mozilla broswer for it to work though).

With this installed you will clearly be able to see any property dropping it's prices , when they did it and how long its been on the market for.

For something that completely free it can save you a small fortune when it comes to actually knowing plenty of info about the property for sale to avoid being bul****ted be EAs etc and will put you alot more firmly in the driving seat when it comes to bidding.

oscar.d

well there's no doubt that prices may continue to drop for a while - however it would be very unwise to try and speculate by how much. I think the drop in 2-bed townhouses in general would be slightly less (in terms of percentage) than larger houses. The reason being their higher affordability for young families and slightly more demand. So whereas a 3-bed might drop 50K (i.e. 10%) im x number of months, a 2 bed might drop 20K (i.e. 5%) in the same number of month - that's exactly why we are thinking of selling our 2-bed as we feel the gap is narrowing in our favour and it might be good time to move up - and by the look of it there's still some interest in the market for 2-beds, so I don't think in the long run they fall a huge amount.
Also take into account that in the 6 month you'll have to live somewhere too, and the cost of that needs to be counted against saving you make.

bren2002

You should probably speak to a bank (not a broker) about how much they are likely to lend you also.

Plus don't forget that if you have equity now you can still shop around for good mortgage deals, whereas if you buy a bigger place and your LTV rises it will severely restrict your ability to shop around for a number of years.

loyatemu

oscar.d wrote: »

well there's no doubt that prices may continue to drop for a while - however it would be very unwise to try and speculate by how much. I think the drop in 2-bed townhouses in general would be slightly less (in terms of percentage) than larger houses. The reason being their higher affordability for young families and slightly more demand. So whereas a 3-bed might drop 50K (i.e. 10%) im x number of months, a 2 bed might drop 20K (i.e. 5%) in the same number of month - that's exactly why we are thinking of selling our 2-bed as we feel the gap is narrowing in our favour and it might be good time to move up - and by the look of it there's still some interest in the market for 2-beds, so I don't think in the long run they fall a huge amount.
Also take into account that in the 6 month you'll have to live somewhere too, and the cost of that needs to be counted against saving you make.

on the other hand - there's a huge number of 2 beds (all types) on the market in Charlesland, and not many buyers out there. First-time buyers at the moment are going to have more difficulty getting mortgages than trader-uppers. Supply and demand etc....

Prices will almost certainly continue to drop over the next 6 months. Over on the Accomodation board they seem to think we're in for 2-3 years of sharp drops at least. Even if you have the money in 6 months, might be worth holding fire for a bit.

DTinthegrove

loyatemu wrote: »

on the other hand - there's a huge number of 2 beds (all types) on the market in Charlesland, and not many buyers out there. First-time buyers at the moment are going to have more difficulty getting mortgages than trader-uppers. Supply and demand etc....

Prices will almost certainly continue to drop over the next 6 months. Over on the Accomodation board they seem to think we're in for 2-3 years of sharp drops at least. Even if you have the money in 6 months, might be worth holding fire for a bit.

Put yourself in the buyers shoes, plenty of choice (fact), prices dropping (fact), increased time to sell (fact), More rental properties availiable (fact), Rental prices droping (fact), avialablity of credit more difficult (fact), unlikely to see rapid growth over the next 3-5 years(??).

Say 2 bedroom is on for €340k,
buyers would need to borrow €313k (92% mortgage assuming they have deposit and stamp duty of 15k saved)

Over 25 years repayments would be €1880 per month.
You can rent this house or a 3 bed for €1200-1500.
Why would you buy at €340k?

Salary multiple of 4 times income would mean the couple need to earn €85k for the €313k loan, that's fessible i guess.

I think prices have a long way to drop yet. In my opinion hold off don't get ripped off, save your hard earned cash.

oscar.d

loyatemu wrote: »

Prices will almost certainly continue to drop over the next 6 months. Over on the Accomodation board they seem to think we're in for 2-3 years of sharp drops at least.

And we all know that them "over on the Accomodation board" are the greatest economists and we shall base our most important decisions in life on their internet prophecies :-) They know much better than them "over in the real world" economists ....

But on a serious note, define sharp fall? 30% p.a? So, a house that's 380 now will be 266000 next year, 186200 the year after, 130000 in 3 years? That's great value, I'll buy a couple of them and rent them out then, can make a fortune with the difference between mortgage and the rental... even if it drops not so "sharply" by 20% p.a. (a mere 1.66% per month) it'll be under 200,000 by then, and I would be able to afford a couple and rent them out... I hope you see my point, yes there's supply and demand issues but it's not as if there's hundreds of empty houses in the area waiting to be occupied! a 200,000 25 year investment mortgage at current rate would cost one 1250 per month, which is the same as monthly rent for those houses... and remember, it would cost you 36*1250 = 45000 to rent a house during this 3 years, and you have lost 3 years of your mortgage repayment - or more precisely paid someone else's mortgage for 3 years.

I have no doubts that there will be further falls in the market, but I'm not sure if the level of falls worth waiting for for any long period of time. I'm not saying that just because I'm thinking of selling my house, I'm planning to buy a bigger one too and invest even more so it's not just self-interest...

DTinthegrove

oscar.d wrote: »

But on a serious note, define sharp fall? 30% p.a? So, a house that's 380 now will be 266000 next year, 186200 the year after, 130000 in 3 years?

No results of property bubbles around the world have shown that degree of a crash, in such a short time scale......but 20%-30% is fessible over a few years. They went up that much, why can't they go down?

oscar.d wrote: »

That's great value, I'll buy a couple of them and rent them out then, can make a fortune with the difference between mortgage and the rental... even if it drops not so "sharply" by 20% p.a. (a mere 1.66% per month) it'll be under 200,000 by then, and I would be able to afford a couple and rent them out

But would the bank lend you the money, probably not. There are banks now who have already withdrawn from the buy to let makert.

oscar.d wrote: »

a 200,000 25 year investment mortgage at current rate would cost one 1250 per month, which is the same as monthly rent for those houses

That would be a great investment then! 0% return and inflation running at 5%, and no capital appreciation.......might aswell put my money elsewhere for a few year until things bottom out. Hence the arse has fallen out of the investment market.

oscar.d wrote: »

I have no doubts that there will be further falls in the market, but I'm not sure if the level of falls worth waiting for for any long period of time. I'm not saying that just because I'm thinking of selling my house.

You are right the market will decide the price in the end. Catching a falling knife is risky and finding a friendly bank manager has become difficult.

Don't rush, take your time to buy, make sure you feel you are getting value for money.

oscar.d

DTinthegrove wrote: »

No results of property bubbles around the world have shown that degree of a crash, in such a short time scale......but 20%-30% is fessible over a few years. They went up that much, why can't they go down?

Sure, they can go down that much alright but I would hardly call a 20% drop in 3 years a SHARP FALL!

DTinthegrove wrote: »

But would the bank lend you the money, probably not. There are banks now who have already withdrawn from the buy to let makert.

Which bank has already withdrawn from the buy to let market, exactly? Source? Ofcourse they'll lend you the money if they think it makes sense, otherwise they won't. It's on a case-per-case basis. Depends on your LTV, your earning, etc. Generalised statement like the above are simply incorrect.

DTinthegrove wrote: »

That would be a great investment then! 0% return and inflation running at 5%, and no capital appreciation

Right so you think a house that is now 380 could cost 200 in 3 years time and even then it's going to go further down (hence "no capital appreciation")... well, I think the only person agreeing with your forecast would be the guy that said Ireland would have no rainfall in 2008.

DTinthegrove wrote: »

You are right the market will decide the price in the end.

That's the bottom line. It's not really possible to forecast what exactly is going to happen other than observing the trend (i.e. prices currently falling) and watching the market reaction to that in the coming years.

DTinthegrove wrote: »

Catching a falling knife is risky and finding a friendly bank manager has become difficult.

Not really, if you need to live somewhere you need to live somewhere! And a lot of people do and don't fancy moving from one rental accommodation to another and dealing with landlords and crappy furniture and paying for other people's mortgages, so they buy anyway. In the long term if one is going to live for the next 20 years or so it won't make a huge difference, especially in the entry-level houses. If you pay €1,000,000 it's different!

By the way, you don't need a friendly bank manager to get a mortgage, it doesn't work like that. Mortgages are usually underwritten centrally by a group of underwriters. It is done based on predefined set of rules and friendliness is not part of those rules, they simply look into your salary, your outgoings, your age, amount you're asking for, etc and use a formula to come up with maximum borrowing possible. And despite the credit crunch and all that, it's still a fairly lucrative business for banks, and they would be mad to turn profit away when it comes knocking on their doors (in the form of someone with a sizable deposit in hand and a steady income!)

loyatemu

well, last year 3 beds were selling for 540k, now I'd say they're going for not much more than 450k. Thats a 15%+ drop in not much more than a year. Seems pretty sharp to me. And as DT said, the banks are not lending much to the type of people who buy 2 beds.

And, no I certainly wouldn't base any major decisions on what the cranks on the Accomodation board are saying, but they're not the only ones predicting continued falling prices...

oscar.d

loyatemu wrote: »

well, last year 3 beds were selling for 540k, now I'd say they're going for not much more than 450k. Thats a 15%+ drop in not much more than a year. Seems pretty sharp to me. And as DT said, the banks are not lending much to the type of people who buy 2 beds.

And, no I certainly wouldn't base any major decisions on what the cranks on the Accomodation board are saying, but they're not the only ones predicting continued falling prices...

I'm in the market for 3-bed end terrace, and I would be delighted if you find one for me for 450K, I will in fact pay you a small commission if you do. The cheapest I can see is €485K for a mid-terrace three bed followed by €500K+ for end-terrace ones. So unless you've a source other than those I see I think you're either misleading or comparing apples with oranges. I'd be more than happy to be corrected though, so feel free to back up your figures with evidence.

Again I don't know which banks you deal with but banks that I know have certain rules and formula in their underwriting and "type of person" is not one of them, they look at income, outgoing, age, ... . For that purpose anyone could qualify or not, it doesn't depend on their type! From what I can see most of people owning the 2-beds currently are young professional couples with little other commitment and I can't see why banks would suddenly become reluctant to lend to them and turn away a profitable business. Banks don't give mortgages for charity, it's how they make money!!! What you are saying makes no sense at all, if there's a reluctance in banks it would be in the form of readjusting the weights in "affordability calculator" and it affects every body across the boards, and those asking for higher mortgages would be affected as much -if not more- as others. For your information I have actually written the software that one of the banks use for their loan applications and implemented an affordability calculator for them, so I know what I'm talking about, and what you say doesn't check with the way things are done!

As I said before, I have no doubt that the downward trend is going to continue for another while but I don't know for how long or how much - but I am not too worried about it because a)I have to live somewhere anyway, b) a downward trend would actually benefit me anyway because the gap for moving up will become less, so I will have to take out a smaller mortgage! I am not going to sell my house and use the capital appreciation in it to buy a yacht, if I were, then I would be worried!!!

DTinthegrove

They have already come down by lets say 10% so another 20% over say three years would be a considerable drop for most people in such a young estate (in my opinion)

Banks withdrawing from btl has happened in the UK, sorry didn't specify which country. Don't see why it won't happen here. But stand correct on that. However, you need a healthy deposit, it will cost you more and so it could be argued its less attractive at the momment.

I never said a house at €380 would be worth 200k in 3 years. All a said was if a 200k mortgage costs you €1250 a month and you could rent it out at that then you have a 0% return on investment. At the momment you have no captial appreciation. Don't know about 3 years time but it took more than 10 year for captial appreciation to return in Japan.

Of course I realise its not about having a friendly bank manager, that was just a figure of speach. But it's a fact you are not likely to get a mortgage for the same amount as you did a few years ago and if you do it will cost you more and you will need a bigger deposit in % terms.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Moving on..............(or around and around)
We agree that the market will decide in the end.

It could have been a quick sharp crash but it looks like it could be a long drawn out affair with the VI's anticipating the up turn just around the corner every 6 months.

Time will tell......

This is a great site for anyone buying who wants to know how long a house has been on the market and how many price drops/increase they have had so far.

www.irishpropertywatch.com

oscar.d

yep, you make sense in all the points you raised there.
I also have to add that there's another half to those VI's that anticipate more and more decline every 6 months. For every optimistic VI there's a pessimistic one...

bren2002

oscar.d wrote: »

I'm in the market for 3-bed end terrace, and I would be delighted if you find one for me for 450K, I will in fact pay you a small commission if you do. The cheapest I can see is €485K for a mid-terrace three bed followed by €500K+ for end-terrace ones. So unless you've a source other than those I see I think you're either misleading or comparing apples with oranges. I'd be more than happy to be corrected though, so feel free to back up your figures with evidence.

That's an asking price, you'd have your hand snapped off if you offered 450K

fishdog

oscar.d

I would hardly call a 20% drop in 3 years a SHARP FALL!

I would, especially when you look at what inflation is running at and consider how much the price was increasing per month not so long ago.

A 20% drop on a €500K house is €100K. To me that is alot of money

oscar.d

fishdog wrote: »

oscar.d
I would, especially when you look at what inflation is running at and consider how much the price was increasing per month not so long ago.

A 20% drop on a €500K house is €100K. To me that is alot of money

true, it's a lot of money but I wouldn't lose sleep over that, it's a drop at the end of the day rather than crash, and it would eventually go up again maybe 10 years down the line!!