House prices in Charlesland.

bren2002

oscar.d wrote: »

true, it's a lot of money but I wouldn't lose sleep over that, it's a drop at the end of the day rather than crash, and it would eventually go up again maybe 10 years down the line!!

Don't forget though that a 20% decrease needs a 25% increase to return to the starting value. And a 50% decrease needs a 100% increase to return to the starting value. :eek:

loyatemu

bren2002 wrote: »

That's an asking price, you'd have your hand snapped off if you offered 450K

exactly - that house for 485k has been on the market for a long time - some of the ones for 500k+ have been for sale for over a year. Asking prices are a fiction at the moment, anyone who is serious about wanting to sell will take a lower offer.

oscar.d

loyatemu wrote: »

exactly - that house for 485k has been on the market for a long time - some of the ones for 500k+ have been for sale for over a year. Asking prices are a fiction at the moment, anyone who is serious about wanting to sell will take a lower offer.

As I said, find a semi-d in charlesland for 450 for me and I'll give you a .5% commission straight away.

Otherwise it would be absolute wishful thinking to think that someone has advertised their house at 500,000 but is willing to sell it 10% below that (i.e. 450,000).

a 3-bed was recently advertised for 465 (as far as i remember) and was snapped up within days.

miju

oscar.d wrote: »

And we all know that them "over on the Accomodation board" are the greatest economists and we shall base our most important decisions in life on their internet prophecies :-) They know much better than them "over in the real world" economists ....

It is worth noting that most of "them over on the accomodation board" actually predicted this over a year before any of the mainstream economists even started to mention it (apart from George Lee and D Mc W). In fact the mainstream economists where still predicting rate cutes and price rises etc.

oscar.d wrote: »

. and remember, it would cost you 36*1250 = 45000 to rent a house during this 3 years, and you have lost 3 years of your mortgage repayment - or more precisely paid someone else's mortgage for 3 years.

with house prices falling at 1% per month based on the 380k figure you'll have saved that 45k in one year by waiting

oscar.d wrote: »

Which bank has already withdrawn from the buy to let market, exactly? Source? Ofcourse they'll lend you the money if they think it makes sense, otherwise they won't. It's on a case-per-case basis. Depends on your LTV, your earning, etc. Generalised statement like the above are simply incorrect.

with all due respect oscar.d you are clearly showing you don't really have any kind of read on the current situation in Ireland. For a start at the end of June PTSB pulled out of the BTL mortgage market and a few more have followed suit since. Ulster Bank are another one they will only lend up to 70% of the value now - and in some cases the maximum loan will be 50%

The banks have also introduce "banding" with BTL and effectivley if you want a BTL mortgage outside of the city you can pretty much forget about it. Just to give you an example these are the current maximum mortgages residentially you can get now:

PTSB: 90%
EBS / Haven: 80%
IIB Homeloans: 92%

Now take your average house price of 380k in the area. How many FTBs etc do you think have a 40k deposit hanging about ?

bren2002

oscar.d wrote: »

As I said, find a semi-d in charlesland for 450 for me and I'll give you a .5% commission straight away.

Otherwise it would be absolute wishful thinking to think that someone has advertised their house at 500,000 but is willing to sell it 10% below that (i.e. 450,000).

a 3-bed was recently advertised for 465 (as far as i remember) and was snapped up within days.

So that makes the price of a 3 bed 465K, a few weeks ago. Again asking price only, you can't tell if it sold for over or below that amount.

Charlesland Wood, price change from 520K in Feb 08 to 480K in July 08 - 9%, so not quite 10%, but you that 0.5% commission that they'd take an offer at 10% below the original 520K asking price.

There are numerous other examples of price drops greater than 10% (and 30% in other areas), I'll show you more if you want. It's not disillusion, it's fact - for asking prices at least. But buyers want better deals than asking prices, so you can be sure that anything that is selling is selling at below asking price.

Hammiepeters

oscar.d wrote: »

Not really, if you need to live somewhere you need to live somewhere! And a lot of people do and don't fancy moving from one rental accommodation to another and dealing with landlords and crappy furniture and paying for other people's mortgages, so they buy anyway. In the long term if one is going to live for the next 20 years or so it won't make a huge difference, especially in the entry-level houses. If you pay €1,000,000 it's different!

Exactly. There are many experts on here who have made it a speciality predicting the past and are advising buyers to sit on their hands waiting for the market to bottom out so they can get in at optimal timing whilst paying lower rents, saving deposits, securing finance..........Right. One thing these experts do have in common is that they believed wholeheartedly that the advent of current market conditions would benefit FTB's! Which is why FTB's are queing up to buy right now. Right?.
So I suppose in answer to King's question. If you are fortunate enough to have the sizeable deposit required right now and if you can secure a loan;6months from now could well be optimal timing.

oscar.d

bren2002 wrote: »

So that makes the price of a 3 bed 465K, a few weeks ago. Again asking price only, you can't tell if it sold for over or below that amount.

Charlesland Wood, price change from 520K in Feb 08 to 480K in July 08 - 9%, so not quite 10%, but you that 0.5% commission that they'd take an offer at 10% below the original 520K asking price.

There are numerous other examples of price drops greater than 10% (and 30% in other areas), I'll show you more if you want. It's not disillusion, it's fact - for asking prices at least. But buyers want better deals than asking prices, so you can be sure that anything that is selling is selling at below asking price.

I have no doubt prices are falling, but show me one 3-bed semi-d that's asking for €450 and is on the market for more than 3 days and I'll accept your point.

But let's not be selective with the facts and look at all the fact not just take one and twist it:

1. House prices are falling, and have fallen from their height in 1 year ago by a considerable amount, i.e. 8-10%. That's a fact.

2. Current asking price for 3-bed semi ranges from 500-520. That's a fact too. The last one that sold at a highly reduced price was snapped up in less than a week, that's a fact too. Put 2 and 2 together. I leave it to you to make whatever conclusion you like to make. But I somehow think it's unlikely that one would sell a house for 10-15% of asking price. In a case that they did sell at a highly discounted price (not even 450, 465), it was grabbed quickly so that shows that it was lower than market price...

setanta

oscar.d wrote: »

2. Current asking price for 3-bed semi ranges from 500-520, and it is completely unlikely that one would sell it for another 10% below that, i.e. for 450. That's a fact.

No, that's a supposition.

While not a direct corollary I have documentary evidence that a two bed apartment in The Fairways (with one of the LOWEST asking prices) sold for an additional 16% LESS than that asking price - ie less than 300k

oscar.d

setanta wrote: »

No, that's a supposition.

You are right - I edited my post and separated facts and supposition in the interest of clarity!

setanta wrote: »

While not a direct corollary I have documentary evidence that a two bed apartment in The Fairways (with one of the LOWEST asking prices) sold for an additional 16% LESS than that asking price - ie less than 300k

apples? oranges? ...

DTinthegrove

Value is coming back but don't confuse value compared to a year ago with value as a whole.

More than 10x average salary for an average 3 bed end of terrace house, is that value for money?

I'd say 450k is not value for money. Its better value. I think this is cultural thing, we seem to forget that 450k for an average house is by international standards very very expensive! But the banks will lend us the money so what do we care....?!

The maximum a couple who are earning 80k can borrow is around 5 times this joint income ...approx 400k, so they could just buy if they have a 50k deposit.
Borrowing 400k over 25 year would cost them €2400 a month in repayments.

You can rent a 3 bed for €1500, that a very big difference to pay for owning yr house. You could rent and go on 3 great holidays a year with the savings!!

oscar.d

DTinthegrove wrote: »

Value is coming back but don't confuse value compared to a year ago with value as a whole.

More than 10x average salary for an average 3 bed end of terrace house, is that value for money?

I'd say 450k is not value for money. Its better value. I think this is cultural thing, we seem to forget that 450k for an average house is by international standards very very expensive! But the banks will lend us the money so what do we care....?!

The maximum a couple who are earning 80k can borrow is around 5 times this joint income ...approx 400k, so they could just buy if they have a 50k deposit.
Borrowing 400k over 25 year would cost them €2400 a month in repayments.

You can rent a 3 bed for €1500, that a very big difference to pay for owning yr house. You could rent and go on 3 great holidays a year with the savings!!

You're right in all that. I too believe that compared to the rest of the world housing is really bad value here. But as you said yourself it's a cultural thing and it won't change overnight, and also it works based on free market rules so whether you like the prices or not they'll find their way into market equilibrium! Also bear in mind that average salaries here and employment rates are both fairly high compared to other places. But it's supply and demand that decides it at the end.

As for your point for rent vs. buying, that's a valid point but you seem to miss a huge point there: a house is an investment/saving plan as well as a place to live in. In 25 years time it's most certainly worth more than you bought it for, and you would have paid off your mortgage and have somewhere to live in in your old age and something to pass on to your children. If you have rented for 25 years you have paid all your money and have absolutely nothing at the end of it. Well, I'd prefer to first one, and my children will probably thank me for that choice too!

grudgehugger

Oscar.d, are you sure about your 465k property that sold in days.?

I viewed a 3-bed mid-terrace which had been going down a while and was at 465k asking when i viewed it in early april.

This put it well below other asking prices at the time. The house itself was fine, nothing about it which would justify it being cheaper than other similar houses in charlesland.

It wasn't snapped up.

2 months later, the asking price was at 445, at which point it disappeared from daft which i assume means it finally sold (for some price, not necessarily 445 - could have been less or more) - although it could have been removed from the market for all i know.

oscar.d

grudgehugger wrote: »

Oscar.d, are you sure about your 465k property that sold in days.?

I viewed a 3-bed mid-terrace which had been going down a while and was at 465k asking when i viewed it in early april.

This put it well below other asking prices at the time. The house itself was fine, nothing about it which would justify it being cheaper than other similar houses in charlesland.

It wasn't snapped up.

2 months later, the asking price was at 445, at which point it disappeared from daft which i assume means it finally sold (for some price, not necessarily 445 - could have been less or more) - although it could have been removed from the market for all i know.

Well I don't know, in the absence of a possibility to backtrack daft neither of us can dig a proof out I suppose, but I have been keeping an eye on the market and that one came on at that price and then it was gone very shortly after (while those on asking prices over 500-525 are lounging there for a few months)... But currently the lowest asking price for 3-bed mid-terrace is 485 and for 3-bed semi is 500 - obviously that's only asking price and real price would be lower. How lower, I don't know, but I doubt it would be 10% lower! maybe 10-20K.

Bear in mind there's also other factors that affect price of a house, or more precisely makes one sell easier than the others.: orientation, size and state of the garden, state of the house, flooring, etc...

loyatemu

oscar.d wrote: »

Bear in mind there's also other factors that affect price of a house, or more precisely makes one sell easier than the others.: orientation, size and state of the garden, state of the house, flooring, etc...

in Charlesland there is very little differentiation between houses of the same type - the condition of the house, flooring, garden etc - all could be fixed up for 10k or less. In a market as slow as the current one, price is going to be the deciding factor in most cases.

Anyone who has their house on the market for over 500k is not serious about selling it (or not in any hurry, which is the same thing really).

oscar.d

loyatemu wrote: »

in Charlesland there is very little differentiation between houses of the same type - the condition of the house, flooring, garden etc - all could be fixed up for 10k or less. In a market as slow as the current one, price is going to be the deciding factor in most cases.

Yes and no. While you may be able to put a new flooring and a new lick of paint for around 10K, no amount of money can change the orientation of the garden and that for some people is an important factor. Some people won't even look at east-facing gardens.

But as I said above, a house in good condition and good garden orientation etc would be generally more desirable and slightly easier to sell compared to others in the same type (at the same price). It more effect the desirability and sellability(!) of the house rather than the price...

loyatemu wrote: »

Anyone who has their house on the market for over 500k is not serious about selling it (or not in any hurry, which is the same thing really).

Yep. A 3-bed end-terrace near us has just gone for sale, and they're asking for 515K! I think that's a bit optimistic alright, especially when there's similar properties for around or less than 500K! Same for the 2-bed one that's advertised at 410K!!!!! Some people just don't see it! And the same applied to VI's in the other direction that think a 3-bed en-terrace could be bought for less than 440! Both unrealistic to the real market value at this point in time.

loyatemu

i'm in a 3-bed mid and if I was to try and sell tomorrow I'd probably ask between 450 and 470. If you want to sell quickly you have to price to the bottom end of the market, and if you don't want to sell quickly, then you're mad because prices are falling and you're only going to end up dropping your price anyway...

"Real market value" is a very hazy notion when there are so few buyers around...

grudgehugger

oscar.d wrote: »

Well I don't know, in the absence of a possibility to backtrack daft neither of us can dig a proof out I suppose, but I have been keeping an eye on the market and that one came on at that price and then it was gone very shortly after (while those on asking prices over 500-525 are lounging there for a few months)... But currently the lowest asking price for 3-bed mid-terrace is 485 and for 3-bed semi is 500 - obviously that's only asking price and real price would be lower. How lower, I don't know, but I doubt it would be 10% lower! maybe 10-20K.

Bear in mind there's also other factors that affect price of a house, or more precisely makes one sell easier than the others.: orientation, size and state of the garden, state of the house, flooring, etc...

Backtracking daft is possible - check http://www.irishpropertywatch.com

The property I'm talking about is at http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/viewSalesPropertyHistory.php?Ext_ID=347998&Site=daft

In summary, it was on daft for about 4 months, during which time its price dropped 3 times, going from 475 to 465 to 450 to 445 before being taken off the site.

Does anyone local know if this house sold or was taken off the market?

miju

I would reckon it was withdrawn from sale. Reason for this is simply on daft when a property is sale agreed it has a sale agreed "overlay" on the images and same for when they are sold. For example http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?limit=10&type=sale&id=375966&from_mydaft=1

So the fact it's not visible the way it is above means it's withdrawn. Which means seller was either not serious in selling in the first OR is denial and probably going to wait for the market to "pick up :rolleyes:" in which case they'll end up chasing the market down further anyways

daraghm

2 bed terrace for 350k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/203-charlesland-court-greystones-wicklow-co/TIVET360695

down from 380k

oscar.d

finally, somebody dropping their price properly! Interesting. Let's see if it sells any time soon or not!

jackal

Hammiepeters wrote: »

Exactly. There are many experts on here who have made it a speciality predicting the past and are advising buyers to sit on their hands waiting for the market to bottom out so they can get in at optimal timing whilst paying lower rents, saving deposits, securing finance..........Right. One thing these experts do have in common is that they believed wholeheartedly that the advent of current market conditions would benefit FTB's! Which is why FTB's are queing up to buy right now. Right?.
So I suppose in answer to King's question. If you are fortunate enough to have the sizeable deposit required right now and if you can secure a loan;6months from now could well be optimal timing.

FTBs are waiting for further drops. That is all. 10% off a stupid price is still 90% stupid.

Hammiepeters

jackal wrote: »

FTBs are waiting for further drops. That is all. 10% off a stupid price is still 90% stupid.

Hold the front page. You heard it here first.
I think you'll find that yes they are waiting for things to ''bottom out''. But there is also a problem getting finance. So ''that is (not)all''.

future_plans

This discussion is not about "House Prices in Charlesland"...it's about House Prices...Isn't there a more suitable subject area for this thread?

Eoin

future_plans wrote: »

This discussion is not about "House Prices in Charlesland"...it's about House Prices...Isn't there a more suitable subject area for this thread?

Yes, there are more suitable forums (accommodation & property / economics).

The problem is that people won't stay on topic here, and this thread is waaaay too big to wade through to remove the off topic threads.

If we close the thread, then you get loads of similar threads in the main forum, and I'd rather all this crap stays in the one place.

That said - let's try and keep on topic folks?

Hammiepeters

future_plans wrote: »

This discussion is not about "House Prices in Charlesland"...it's about House Prices...Isn't there a more suitable subject area for this thread?

But are the issues facing the market in general not relevant to Charlesland? If so. Whats the problem?.

oscar.d

daraghm wrote: »

2 bed terrace for 350k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/203-charlesland-court-greystones-wicklow-co/TIVET360695

down from 380k

Rang Sherry Fitz about this a minute ago - it's gone! sold! So much for "nothing selling these days", proves that if you advertise at a competitive rates you sell. It was good value for money and it got snapped up.

Cheeky Chops

Yeah - they offered 340 on the two bed with the attic conversion.

oscar.d

Cheeky Chops wrote: »

Yeah - they offered 340 on the two bed with the attic conversion.

elaborate?

Cheeky Chops

We're talking about the same house - the one that dropped from 380.

oscar.d

Cheeky Chops wrote: »

We're talking about the same house - the one that dropped from 380.

Yeah I got that far but can't decipher the rest of your post :-)

"They" being who, offering who "340", and how do you know?