House prices in Charlesland.

jackal

Hammiepeters wrote: »

Hold the front page. You heard it here first.
I think you'll find that yes they are waiting for things to ''bottom out''. But there is also a problem getting finance. So ''that is (not)all''.

I have not heard of anybody having problems getting finance. 92% of the purchase price (based on the banks valuation of the potential property) is available, so long as you are able to meet the mortgage repayments. Sure AIB are running a big "Mortgage Sale" at the moment.

I have heard of problems where people want to pay 400k for a house, but the bank says "We are not lending you 400k, because that house is only worth 300k, and we need security on our loan". Hardly a problem with getting finance, the bank is doing them a favor.

I could go get a mortgage tomorrow. It would not buy me what I want because prices are too high.

The banks have simply stepped back from throwing money at people irresponsibly. This is unlikely to change any time soon, so there really is only one solution.

The problem is prices are too high. Prices must come down.

oscar.d

jackal wrote: »

I have not heard of anybody having problems getting finance. 92% of the purchase price (based on the banks valuation of the potential property) is available, so long as you are able to meet the mortgage repayments. Sure AIB are running a big "Mortgage Sale" at the moment.

I have heard of problems where people want to pay 400k for a house, but the bank says "We are not lending you 400k, because that house is only worth 300k, and we need security on our loan". Hardly a problem with getting finance, the bank is doing them a favor.

I could go get a mortgage tomorrow. It would not buy me what I want because prices are too high.

The banks have simply stepped back from throwing money at people irresponsibly. This is unlikely to change any time soon, so there really is only one solution.

The problem is prices are too high. Prices must come down.

Not true.

Prices will come down further, most probably.

However you analysis of the mortgage market and availability of mortgages is simply incorrect and twisted! Banks rely on valuation from approved estate agents. Whatever they value the house at is what the banks use as the basis of their percentages. I highly doubt that there were that many naive people that have got the value of a house wrong by a 100K margin, or can't get their friendly estate agent to value it for them in a bank-friendly manner. The truth is that getting a mortgage especially for 1st time buyers has become harder because banks have made lending criteria tougher because banks are applying heavier stress testing and other checks. That alongside interest rate increases has eroded people's borrowing power. That has been ONE of the factors pushing the prices down, and there is no point in denying it, it's simple logic of supply and demand. Lower demand, lower prices. (in this case it's double-edged: it's lower demand, higher supply = even lower prices)

Hammiepeters

Thanks Oscar

fishdog

I agree with most of what you say oscar.d.

But banks were lending irresponsibly no matter what way you look at it. There is less risk for lender are borrower now and prices have improved somewhat. Another 6 months or so and prices may drop to something more reasnoble again. Then the housing market will pick up again and banks will be asked for smaller loans, so borrowing will be easier. :):)

London Irish

Ok. I'm probably going to get slammed here, but....came across this thread and followed it, and just had to comment....

oscar.d wrote: »

Not true.

Prices will come down further, most probably.

However you analysis of the mortgage market and availability of mortgages is simply incorrect and twisted! Banks rely on valuation from approved estate agents.

Is this really true? Really? In the UK, a bank will send their own evaluator. I've had friends turned down because their bank has effectively said that the "value" of the property is much lower. This makes sense when a bank has much more information, and a very different vested interest (i.e. maintaining a loan on the books or, in the past, getting rid of it via a CDO) than an agent, who is just looking for the commission. Maybe I've been out of Ireland too long, but this behavior seems like a massive f**k up in how banks in Ireland loaned on property.

oscar.d wrote: »

....or can't get their friendly estate agent to value it for them in a bank-friendly manner.

What does this mean? Everyone wants to sell as high as they can. No-one wants sell their home in a in a bank-friendly manner - they want it valued in a cash-in-the-my-pocket friendly way. But sellers' perceptions of what is "value" is changing....

If they want to sell, they have to drop their prices. Prices are still far too high. So property is still selling right now? Maybe those buyers have been sold a pup. Even on the down-cycle of a bust, there are still losers.

oscar.d wrote: »

The truth is that getting a mortgage especially for 1st time buyers has become harder because banks have made lending criteria tougher because banks are applying heavier stress testing and other checks. That alongside interest rate increases has eroded people's borrowing power. That has been ONE of the factors pushing the prices down...

Are you implying that this is one of the MAIN reasons for the drop in prices? That people WANT to borrow, and offer, as much as they can, but are temporarily constrained by the banks?

The truth is, a market is made by what people are willing to pay, which is not always what they are actually allowed to borrow. And, increasingly, people are smelling blood and offering lower and lower. This might be met wth guffaws and sniggers by an EA but...that's the offer. And that's the market. And no-one wants to unnecessarily mortgage their future away in the current climate....

oscar.d

London Irish wrote: »

Is this really true? Really? In the UK, a bank will send their own evaluator. I've had friends turned down because their bank has effectively said that the "value" of the property is much lower. This makes sense when a bank has much more information, and a very different vested interest (i.e. maintaining a loan on the books or, in the past, getting rid of it via a CDO) than an agent, who is just looking for the commission. Maybe I've been out of Ireland too long, but this behavior seems like a massive f**k up in how banks in Ireland loaned on property.

yes it's true, they use any local agent that's on their board. For example when I was buying my house they used Lennox. And when remortgaging I simply used an evaluation that I initiated myself from Dooley. So there.

London Irish wrote: »

Are you implying that this is one of the MAIN reasons for the drop in prices? That people WANT to borrow, and offer, as much as they can, but are temporarily constrained by the banks?

I think what I said was simple and logical enough and does not require any further twists, emphasis or interpretation. Just read it! I don't need to explain what I mean really, it's written in as plain english as it gets!

London Irish

oscar.d wrote: »

yes it's true, they use any local agent that's on their board. For example when I was buying my house they used Lennox. And when remortgaging I simply used an evaluation that I initiated myself from Dooley. So there.

I'm blown away. This is not good business practice. I'm not denying that this happens, I do believe you, but this is not sound.

oscar.d wrote: »

I think what I said was simple and logical enough and does not require any further twists, emphasis or interpretation. Just read it! I don't need to explain what I mean really, it's written in as plain english as it gets!

I see where you're coming from now, reading jackals comment: "...92% of the purchase price (based on the banks valuation of the potential property) is available..." - Irish banks don't do their own valuation - they rely on EA valuations.

I guess I had to read your explanation a few times - not so much to understand, but to believe it.

bren2002

oscar.d wrote: »

yes it's true, they use any local agent that's on their board. For example when I was buying my house they used Lennox. And when remortgaging I simply used an evaluation that I initiated myself from Dooley. So there.

I know from talking to people in the mortgage debt of a major bank, that valuations provided to banks are being reduced by 20% by the bank after the valuation has been submitted. The banks are not stupid, they know that it's in the interests of the estate agent to put a high value on the property.

London Irish

So where are prices in Charlesland now?

cuddlycavies

Back to where they started when the wood and court were sold. Or therabouts

GingerDave

cuddlycavies wrote: »

Back to where they started when the wood and court were sold. Or therabouts

Buts isn't thats just current asking prices, not actual selling prices?

cuddlycavies

GingerDave wrote: »

Buts isn't thats just current asking prices, not actual selling prices?

If you could pick up a 3 bed EOT in the court for €355000. Good luck to you.

MuffinsDa

cuddlycavies wrote: »

If you could pick up a 3 bed EOT in the court for €355000. Good luck to you.

I'd say you could, easily. Better houses in south Dublin are going for less than that.

Latest I've seen is €285K asking for a 2-bed mid-terrace.

ciaran67

MuffinsDa wrote: »

I'd say you could, easily. Better houses in south Dublin are going for less than that.

Latest I've seen is €285K asking for a 2-bed mid-terrace.

300k for drywall, i think not.

GingerDave

cuddlycavies wrote: »

If you could pick up a 3 bed EOT in the court for €355000. Good luck to you.

137 Charlesland Court, 3 bed end of terrace witch attic conversion, asking price €390k. Not unreasonable to knock 10% off that = €350K.

loyatemu

what were the prices in the first phase of the Wood btw - anyone know?

MuffinsDa

AFAIK they started around €285k for mid-terrace 2-bed, and €345k for 3-beds. I could be wrong though.

GingerDave

MuffinsDa wrote: »

AFAIK they started around €285k for mid-terrace 2-bed, and €345k for 3-beds. I could be wrong though.

De Wood. 2nd phase 3 bedroom end of terrace was €400k

cuddlycavies

Well ,1st phase of court were from €355 3 bed EOT.

darter

Absolute prices now at 2001 levels, and the end is not in sight:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/1203/1224259986089.html

Taking wage inflation into account, this means that prices are relatively some 20-30% below 2001 levels. 1998?

FirstIn

295k for mid terrace 2 bed in The Wood. My house no. is less than no. 50 so early on in the devpt. Price depended on aspect and whether the green was to the front of your house. I think 295k was as cheap as they got.

merc998

Estate agents bs no chance they'll 5% at most . . . im praying so anyway!!!!

loyatemu

merc998 wrote: »

Estate agents bs no chance they'll 5% at most . . . im praying so anyway!!!!

eh?

PLIIM

My brother is looking at 3 beds in Charlesland, near enough to where we grew up. I keep telling him to wait, but he really wants to live there. Fair play to all for making it that way. I came poking about this forum and there seems to be a good community spirit.

They are being advertised for more, but hes looking at similar bids to the price in this post.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63167140&postcount=1

One will accept 295K, but he wants to hold out for around €275k too.

cuddlycavies

I'm thinking that's a 2 bed with attic conversion.

PLIIM

cuddlycavies wrote: »

I'm thinking that's a 2 bed with attic conversion.

Not the one my brother is trying to negotiate down from €295k. I viewed it and others with him. Its definitely a 3 bed eot house. Not a duplex. Still has an attic too, so no conversion. We viewed 2 beds too (EAs told us offers of around €210 - 220k would do the trick), but they are too small for him, even with a conversion.

They are on the market for outrageous prices, but as soon as you make it clear to the agent that you are not messing and ready for a quick sale, the asking price plummets big time.

I was thinking if he gets it down to €275k (If it goes to 285 i think he'll buy it) that i would probably buy one there too for around that price. Its a lovely area and the folks are only down the road.

cuddlycavies

PLIIM wrote: »

Not the one my brother is trying to negotiate down from €295k. I viewed it and others with him. Its definitely a 3 bed eot house. Not a duplex. Still has an attic too, so no conversion. We viewed 2 beds too (EAs told us offers of around €210 - 220k would do the trick), but they are too small for him, even with a conversion.

They are on the market for outrageous prices, but as soon as you make it clear to the agent that you are not messing and ready for a quick sale, the asking price plummets big time.

I was thinking if he gets it down to €275k (If it goes to 285 i think he'll buy it) that i would probably buy one there too for around that price. Its a lovely area and the folks are only down the road.

Scary ****!

cuddlycavies

But when you think of what is actually going on here. You take the typical stereotype couple we were always told to consider, the Garda and nurse. Pension levy and pay drop placed against deflation and interest rate decreases. They're not that much worse off than when people queued to buy these houses. Confidence will restore so much but confidence must be restored.

mikemac

The garda and nurse are not going to made redundant at 30 days notice. Well unless they are on a contract and all contracts end.

Confidence will be restored in time

jobless

cuddlycavies wrote: »

But when you think of what is actually going on here. You take the typical stereotype couple we were always told to consider, the Garda and nurse. Pension levy and pay drop placed against deflation and interest rate decreases. They're not that much worse off than when people queued to buy these houses. Confidence will restore so much but confidence must be restored.

It will take a hell of a lot of confidence to restore the prices to bubble mania prices.... maybe in 30 years people...

there is nothing to be confident of at the moment.... there's another 3/4 tough budgets ahead