Where's the value here ?

Bernard Hopkins

Ok, Fernando Torres joins the Premiership, striker for Liverpool.

How many goals will he rack up this season ?

1. Bet356 - over 11.5 goals..=...1.72 (8/11)
2. Patpower - under 15.5 goals..=..1.72 (8/11)

Now, Liverpool strikers do tend to have a fairly high goal tally on average, ever since the days of Hesky.
anyway, other teams tend to have their top goalscorer being a regular midfielder etc. .

The general way of thinking for a bookie is to set the goal level higher than they expect,..as they know that the vast majority of backers will be egging him on to score as many as possible !!!
e.g. - if a bookie thinks a player should average 10 goals this season,..they will offer under / over 12.5 ,.... leaving a little margin in their favour.

Personally, Im thinking of backing both , so if it lands on either :
12 , 13 , 14 , or 15 goals then i win both bets and return of both stakes !!
If i loose, i can only loose a max 14€ per 100€
only other thing is your money is tied up for the year

B-Hop

Bernard Hopkins

Spoil-Sports are going Under/Over 13.5 goals .......

they have it bang on middle,..... I just dont know which bookie has set their market wrong .
I think probably under 15.5 on paddys is the better value, Torres didnt bag that many in his home league if i remember correctly ??

Chucky the tree

Premiership goals i take it? I'd take unders with Paddy.

WH BONNEY

Not sure if there is much value in this.

You would have to think that if Torres stays fit he will get 12 or more goals so that is where I would be putting my money.

With regard to backing both, ie more than 11.5 & less than 15.5, you are getting odds of 4.3/1 on Torres scoring 12,13,14 or 15. FWIW I dont think those odds are particularly appealing.

Bubs101

Paddy power are probably assuming that Liverpool will be selling one of Crouch or Kuyt while Boyle Sports are probably assuming Rafa will keep all 5. Given the number of strikers I'd go with Paddy Power. He probably won't settle anyway after being a god in Madrid

hotspur

I would be a bit surprised if he banged in 16 goals or more in his 1st season. That's a lot of goals, only 3 managed it last year, and with it being his 1st season in England and Rafa's rotation policy I think he will score less. Not that I would bother with such a bet at those odds for a 9 month period.

Bernard Hopkins

WH BONNEY wrote:

Not sure if there is much value in this.

With regard to backing both, ie more than 11.5 & less than 15.5, you are getting odds of 4.3/1 on Torres scoring 12,13,14 or 15. FWIW I dont think those odds are particularly appealing.

if you put 100 each side,.... and it lands on 12,13,14 , or 15 you would end up winning 144 euro @ a possible risk of 28euro

5.15/1 ..or 6.15 in decimal terms.
that is the bracket he is expected to "land" in,.... I think it's great price myself.
only your money is tied up for the season.

WH BONNEY

Bernard Hopkins wrote:

if you put 100 each side,.... and it lands on 12,13,14 , or 15 you would end up winning 144 euro @ a possible risk of 28euro

5.15/1 ..or 6.15 in decimal terms.
that is the bracket he is expected to "land" in,.... I think it's great price myself.
only your money is tied up for the season.

Obviously I am wrong, but I was calculating it as follows

144/28 = 5.15. Then deduct our unit stake = 4.15/1

Bernard Hopkins

no stake,.......... its 72 euro profit per 100 stake, on both sides.

so 144 clear profit.....(plus your stake) @ a risk of 28.

the return of stakes would also amount to 200 ,... so return of 344 on 200
if you loose you get a return of 172 on 200€

the purpose of offering this bet is solely to lure in the Liverpool fans into a market whilst the publicity is huge !!!
Probably the true value is more like over/under 10.5 goals, which would be a fair result for a premiership newbie.

Dont forget how Didier Dogbreath was lambasted for being a massise FLOP in his first terms @ chelsea.... the media has a short memory, and the public have no mind of their own.