Boards.ie Lotto Syndicate Via Paypal ?

eirebhoy

Doing it your way, you could buy 4 million tickets and still have about a 4m/1 chance of winning it.

BaZmO*

eirebhoy wrote:

Doing it your way, you could buy 4 million tickets and still have about a 4m/1 chance of winning it.

?

If you bought 4m tickets your odds would be 2/1

4,000,000/8,145,060 = 2.036/1

Mr E

Thats an expensive coin toss!

PeakOutput

BaZmO* wrote:

?

If you bought 4m tickets your odds would be 2/1

4,000,000/8,145,060 = 2.036/1

i think he meant your first way

jjbrien

Get me the back to the future car and I will go forward to tonight and watch the draw then return to now with the numbers for the boards syndicate.

If only. :rolleyes:

BaZmO*

PeakOutput wrote:

i think he meant your first way

Yeah just realised that.

As has been said many times before, "The Lotto is for people that can't do maths!"

Ishmael

Odds of matching the following:

Match 6: 8,145,060/1
Match 5 + Bonus: 1,357,510/1
Match 5: 35,724/1
Match 4 + Bonus: 14,290/1
Match 4: 772/1
Match 3 + Bonus: 579/1
Match 3: 48/1

If we staked a total of €1,800 in each draw (200 * €9).

Thats a total of...
€187,200 spent per year
and
124,800 lines per year

How many times a year we'll get the following on average (excluding Jackpot and 5+bonus):

Match 5: 3.5 times per year (or 7 times every 2 years)
Match 4 + Bonus: 8
Match 4: 161
Match 3 + Bonus: 215
Match 3: 2,600

Estimated winnings on each per year (excluding Jackpot and 5+bonus):

Match 5: 3.5 * €1,500 = €5250
Match 4 + Bonus: 8 * €150 = €1200
Match 4: 161 * €50 = €8,050
Match 3 + Bonus: 215 * €25 = €5,375
Match 3: 2,600 * €5 = €13,000

Total winnings on the 'smaller' amounts:
€32,875

Which is 17.5% of the total stake.

If we all spent €936 a year we'd get back on average €164 each. I think it'd be best to give everyone their winnings at the end of the year but it's a lot harder to do.

Anyway, that's going by the way I explained in my previous post which required 200 committed people. We won't get anywhere near that amount. It just makes it a lot easier to work the calculations that way

Heh looking at those numbers make less inclined to join a syndicate

You're spending 936 a year on the odds of 65/1 that you'll get a return of maybe 5k-50k(1-10million jackpot) possibly + the average return of 164 euro

so effectively its a bet of 772 @ 65/1 where the return if you actually win can quite possibly and more than likely to be less than 51k which is close to the return you would get from a bookie with a bet like that.

You'd be better off in the grand national

Also two lines gives you a 2 in 8,145,060 chance of winning not a 1 in 8,145,059. The number of tickets you buy does not reduce the number of combinations that can be drawn, it only increases the number of combinations you have.

odds of 1 line winning is 1/8145060 = 1.227738e-7
odds of 2 lines winning is 1/8145060 + 1/8145060 = 2/8145060(assuming both lines are not the same.) = 2.45547e-7 so it doubles your chances of winning.

The easiest way to think about it is that you only have one combination not 6 numbers. If it were 1 number drawn from 5, what are the odds if you have 2 numbers.

2/5 = 40%
3 would give you 60%

Same applies here only you have 8145060 Combinations so each extra line you have increases your probability of winning by 1.2277e-5% EDIT: provided that no line is duplicated

cooperguy

Ok simply what is being said is that doubling the number of lines you do (and therefore the number of chances you have to win aswell as the amount you spend) is not worth it for the simple reason that you are paying too much to only slightly increase your chances. The difference between 1 chance in 8 million and 2 chances in 8 million is not worth the extra money as your overall odds of winning are still tiny and not far off your original odds. This is definatly true.

Does everybody agree? Can we get back on topic?

GoneShootin

tba wrote:

even better idea!!!!

Lets pool our our money into a long term savings scheme with a guaranteed rate of return!

excellent idea...

cooperguy

GoneShootin wrote:

excellent idea...

Except for the fact that you could do that by urself and get the same return!! Unless of coarse there is a scheme that gives you a higher rate of interest for a larger amount of money. In that case that wouldnt actually be a bad idea. Tho that would take organising!!!

sunny2004

The details need to be sorted but count me in !

wba88

Get onto the admin and get a special forum for this then we can have threads where ppl can work out odds, sign up, rules etc.

I like the one month at a time idea. Will this be Irish Lotto or Euromillions?

Raiser

Ishmael wrote:

Heh looking at those numbers make less inclined to join a syndicate

You're spending 936 a year on the odds of 65/1 that you'll get a return of maybe 5k-50k(1-10million jackpot) possibly + the average return of 164 euro

so effectively its a bet of 772 @ 65/1 where the return if you actually win can quite possibly and more than likely to be less than 51k which is close to the return you would get from a bookie with a bet like that.

You'd be better off in the grand national

Also two lines gives you a 2 in 8,145,060 chance of winning not a 1 in 8,145,059. The number of tickets you buy does not reduce the number of combinations that can be drawn, it only increases the number of combinations you have.

odds of 1 line winning is 1/8145060 = 1.227738e-7
odds of 2 lines winning is 1/8145060 + 1/8145060 = 2/8145060(assuming both lines are not the same.) = 2.45547e-7 so it doubles your chances of winning.

The easiest way to think about it is that you only have one combination not 6 numbers. If it were 1 number drawn from 5, what are the odds if you have 2 numbers.

2/5 = 40%
3 would give you 60%

Same applies here only you have 8145060 Combinations so each extra line you have increases your probability of winning by 1.2277e-5% EDIT: provided that no line is duplicated

[Homer Mode] I appreciate your input here Ishmael - but none of the above seems to take into account our collective good looks and/or determination to succeed good [\Homer Mode]

Nah, seriously though, if the Lottery was easy to win I'd have won it years ago, this venture is not about the 8,145,060 - this venture is about casually spending a very small amount of spare cash in a calculated manner to give us the best chance most of us will ever have to change our lives.

- Its about an early mortgage payoff, early retirement and an end to rainy Monday mornings on our way to work for the faceless Corporations and Taxman combined.

Ask any Lottery jackpot winner if, in their opinion, the odds are too ridiculously high to consider throwing a few spare quid into the pot - what do you think the response would be ? As a member of a large syndicate you stand to benefit from a much greater chance at hitting the goodtimes on a big win - as well as the reality of enjoying all of the medium wins on a regular basis [statistics and even posts on this thread demonstrate this fact].

Could any of you really live with yourselves if we won and you sat at your desk on a wet, windswept Thursday morning, logged into Boards.ie and could only see blank bits of screen where our posts used to be :cool:

PeakOutput

Raiser wrote:

as well as the reality of enjoying all of the medium wins on a regular basis [statistics and even posts on this thread demonstrate this fact].

the only fact is that for the lotto to be viable we will always be more of a chance of losing our money than coming out with a profit.................now thats fine i have the money to burn(kinda) but if you go into it with any other view besides that your sadly mistaken

Tar.Aldarion

How many people would be in the syndicate?
Any reasonable amount of people would not give you enough money to change your lives if you won.

User45701

well i read it all, im still interested in this, heres a question, after all your ods working out and %'s and everything which i read, i have a question.

If we do the irish lotto and spring for the 2 lotto pluses and also do the euro millions and the irish only euro millions plus.

Also dont forget new lotto rules are if u match any 3 numbers you get a scratch card so factor in the odds if winning on a €2 all cash, if anyone could do it quickly without too much hastle to themselves work out the odds of winning money with all that in play

wba88

On terms with sending out the contracts to be signed, there would have to be a way to make sure every1 is 18+ aswell (dont ask me how)

User45701

wba88 wrote:

On terms with sending out the contracts to be signed, there would have to be a way to make sure every1 is 18+ aswell (dont ask me how)

An emergency boards beers!

EDIT: i was thinking, we cant actually post them out, getting people to come to us instead of posting out is the best plan because we dont want any expences like stamps or someones petrol , expences will **** things up, i suppose anyone who wants there contract posted out could just donate extra money on there first donatation, also i just realised it does not matter if someone is under 18..

"By signing this contract i acknowledge that i am 18 years of age or older, i also accept that if i am under 18 i can not enter into this agreement and if i do and am discovered this contract is Null and Void and i will recieve no monitary re-inbursment"

eirebhoy

cooperguy wrote:

Ok simply what is being said is that doubling the number of lines you do (and therefore the number of chances you have to win aswell as the amount you spend) is not worth it for the simple reason that you are paying too much to only slightly increase your chances. The difference between 1 chance in 8 million and 2 chances in 8 million is not worth the extra money as your overall odds of winning are still tiny and not far off your original odds. This is definatly true.

Does everybody agree?

Surely buying 2 tickets for one draw is just the same as buy 1 ticket for 2 draws?

User45701

2 lines each with lotto plus would be good

or 1 line each if we are going to do lotto+ euro millions + all 3 lotto pluses

wba88

User45701 wrote:

An emergency boards beers!

EDIT: i was thinking, we cant actually post them out, getting people to come to us instead of posting out is the best plan because we dont want any expences like stamps or someones petrol , expences will **** things up, i suppose anyone who wants there contract posted out could just donate extra money on there first donatation, also i just realised it does not matter if someone is under 18..

"By signing this contract i acknowledge that i am 18 years of age or older, i also accept that if i am under 18 i can not enter into this agreement and if i do and am discovered this contract is Null and Void and i will recieve no monitary re-inbursment"

Yeah i was just thinkin that it would create too much hassle because they could say 'i was using my ma's cc' or something

Boards Beers - Brilliant Idea!

shrapnel222

no lotto plus. it's a rip off. we are playing for the jackpot not the side pot. If you buy one line to win 5 million, and one lotto plus line at the same price to win 200 000, then that's just silly. i'd rather we bought 2 lines for 5 million

wba88

how much is lotto plus these days?

Terry

50c per line.

wba88

shrapnel222 wrote:

no lotto plus. it's a rip off. we are playing for the jackpot not the side pot. If you buy one line to win 5 million, and one lotto plus line at the same price to win 200 000, then that's just silly. i'd rather we bought 2 lines for 5 million

I would rather include it, there will probably be only 50 people doing this so I would still be happy to share €200,000 with them thats €4000 each!

User45701

Ye lotto is 1 euro and plus is 50 c

so it would be € 3 each a week 1.50 on each lotto day. doing plus
or else € 4 a week each and 2 euro each lotto day for 2 1 euro lines no lotto plus.

I dont mind how we end up doing it but id be up for the lotto pluses as well. its not a rip off as you say, i know the prize is smalr but allot of people think like you and dont do it, the price is small because less people, more chance of winning especially with so many of us

Raiser

I've never quite managed to make up my mind about Lotto Plus, what we need is for those folks who have demonstrated their mathematical genius earlier on this thread to step up and perform a series of cunning calculations before producing a remarkable strategy for us all.

- By the same token, theres certain people here who have demonstrated that they should steer clear of, well, ahem.....doing sums

PeakOutput

is the lotto plus just an extra draw with the same amount of numbers that you get entered into if pay the extra?

DavyD_83

Looks like a logistical nightmare to me, but if some genius is willing to sort it all out then i'm up for it

cooperguy

There is the same chance of winning no matter how manny people play it because the winners are not coming from a hat but a combination of numbers. No matter how few people do it your chances of getting that combination of numbers stays the same. I say the syndicate play it though.

I also reckon we stay away from the euro millions jackpot. The odds of winning that is over 76,000,000/1

How does a simple €16 a month sound that is 1 draw with per person per week for each month and then as already suggested the syndicate reforms at the start of next month to get members again and people can opt in or out of the syndicate each month. Also a forum is set up to deal with the members joining each month and any other issues.

It would be easy enough to buy large amounts of tickets on quickpick. You can just ask the person behind the counter for €400 worth of quickpick and they will give it to you (probably with a very odd look!). No need to even fill in a ticket:D Its checking the tickets that would be a problem.

Would people be happy with that idea? Could we move on to logistics planning using that?

wba88

Show your support for a specialised forum here http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=53647835#post53647835

Huggles

www.elotto.ie is a lotto syndicate manager and actually has a free trial at the moment.

Hope it helps

wba88

cooperguy wrote:

There is the same chance of winning no matter how manny people play it because the winners are not coming from a hat but a combination of numbers. No matter how few people do it your chances of getting that combination of numbers stays the same. I say the syndicate play it though.

I also reckon we stay away from the euro millions jackpot. The odds of winning that is over 76,000,000/1

How does a simple €16 a month sound that is 1 draw with per person per week for each month and then as already suggested the syndicate reforms at the start of next month to get members again and people can opt in or out of the syndicate each month. Also a forum is set up to deal with the members joining each month and any other issues.

It would be easy enough to buy large amounts of tickets on quickpick. You can just ask the person behind the counter for €400 worth of quickpick and they will give it to you (probably with a very odd look!). No need to even fill in a ticket:D Its checking the tickets that would be a problem.

Would people be happy with that idea?

Yea thats right the only difference is the more that do it the greater the chance of sharing the jackpot.

€24 per month sounds good (2 lines inc plus per member)

Check out my last post

User45701

PeakOutput wrote:

is the lotto plus just an extra draw with the same amount of numbers that you get entered into if pay the extra?

Yes,

Lotto plus costs 1/2 of what normel lotto does and if im, right u can win 250,000 in both lotto pluses so ye you can only win 1/4 of what you can win in the full lotto but as i said allot of people see that and dont do lotto plus meaing less competation...

wba88

User45701 wrote:

Yes,

Lotto plus costs 1/2 of what normel lotto does and if im, right u can win 250,000 in both lotto pluses so ye you can only win 1/4 of what you can win in the full lotto but as i said allot of people see that and dont do lotto plus meaing less competation...

I think lotto plus 1 is €350,000 and lotto plus 2 is €250,000

cooperguy

wba88 wrote:

Yea thats right the only difference is the more that do it the greater the chance of sharing the jackpot.

€24 per month sounds good (2 lines inc plus per member)

Check out my last post

Its only €4 for 2 lines with plus. Its €1.50 a line and 50c per plus. Where is the extra €8 coming from?

wba88

sorry i was workin out at the old price €3 for 2lines with plus * 8draws a month

User45701

OH ITS 1.50? i thought lotto was 1.00 and 50c for plus.

Anyway it does not matter its only 50c, Im still very interested in this.

wba88

So if we were to do e.g. €16 per month (2lines with plus in all 8draws)
It would cost €16.60 (paypal takes 3.5%?)
Plus costs for the people running it (€18 in total would be okay?)

Cut-off point: 50ppl (round number, easy for organisers)
Cost per month: €18 paid via paypal or bank transfer
What you pay for: An equal share in 100lines of Lotto, Lotto Plus 1 and Lotto Plus 2 twice a week for 4weeks.

User45701

18 euro a month sounds ok

75 would be a better number not too high but high enough to add an extra 200 chances a week of winning for adding 25 people

if its 2 lines and 2 pluses each draw thats 8 per person a week x 25 people = 200 extra chances a week

PeakOutput

well despite my better judgement i just bought ten lines no lotto plus and it cost me 15 euro.........

never done the lotto before its kinda exciting haha

User45701

i only do the lotto when i remember and when i have cash

PeakOutput

i already know what im going to buy when i win

pid()

What are the winning numbers lads? Can't view lotto.ie and aertel's site takes ages to update.

EDIT: nevermind, it's updated.

o1s1n

Wah!!! my girlfriend got four correct. Including the bonus. Nearly gave me a heart attack.

€9! feck that!

mobby

No winner possable €16 million Saturday

Wisesmurf

no winner tonight.

Terry

2 and the bonus on three out of five lines.
Not worth a ****.

delly

4 plus the bonus here, man I nearly shit myself after the fourth.

imeddyhobbs

Do you have to be over 18 to join this syndicate?

If we were to win and I was'nt over 18 could i collect?