Bookies Premiership Prediction

eirebhoy

I'm posting this on the soccer forum because loads of people here wouldn't look at the gambling forum. Anyway, Stan James have their Handicap betting up. Basically they give every team a points handicap and if you can predict the team with the most league points+handicap points at the end of the season then you'll get a return of 15 times your stake.

The easiest way of explaining it is... this is how Stan James thinks the premiership will look at the end of next season:

Manchester Utd - ~85
Chelsea - 83
Liverpool - 77
Arsenal - 71
Tottenham - 63
Newcastle - 54
Aston Villa - 52
Everton - 52
Blackburn - 51
Portsmouth - 49
West Ham - 49
Bolton - 45
Manchester City - 44
Sunderland - 44
Middlesbrough - 43
Reading - 43
Fulham - 39
Birmingham - 38
Wigan - 38
Derby - 34

Do you agree? Which team have the underrated the most? Baring in mind that you could add 5 points onto every teams total above and it won't change things. I just had to guess what Man Utd will finish on next season to start it off but it doesn't make a difference.

Daysha

looks close enough. If I'd make changes though, I'd throw Reading and Sunderland up a few place and put West Ham and Portsmouth down a bit

mike65

I think Reading will do better and Man City too. Sunderland will not match the hype I suspect. Everton a few places lower I think. The gap between 4 and 5th is too large.

Mike.

Raskolnikov

For a team who barely survived relegation last season, West Ham look to be far too high up the table. Now that Tevez (who almost single-handedly kept them up) is on the way out, I think they're going to struggle.

Dont be at yourself

I can see Bolton right down the table too. No more Big Sam, and Ben Haim's loss could prove costly.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

William Gates

eirebhoy wrote:

I'm posting this on the soccer forum because loads of people here wouldn't look at the gambling forum. Anyway, Stan James have their Handicap betting up. Basically they give every team a points handicap and if you can predict the team with the most league points+handicap points at the end of the season then you'll get a return of 15 times your stake.

The easiest way of explaining it is... this is how Stan James thinks the premiership will look at the end of next season:

Manchester Utd - ~85
Chelsea - 83
Liverpool - 77
Arsenal - 71
Tottenham - 63
Newcastle - 54
Aston Villa - 52
Everton - 52
Blackburn - 51
Portsmouth - 49
West Ham - 49
Bolton - 45
Manchester City - 44
Sunderland - 44
Middlesbrough - 43
Reading - 43
Fulham - 39
Birmingham - 38
Wigan - 38
Derby - 34

Do you agree? Which team have the underrated the most? Baring in mind that you could add 5 points onto every teams total above and it won't change things. I just had to guess what Man Utd will finish on next season to start it off but it doesn't make a difference.

How did you calculate that?

eirebhoy

William Gates wrote:

How did you calculate that?

http://www.stanjames.com/betting/index.asp?sl=sle&gi=10&sltc=232233.2&sle=654303.2&slmt=601.1

I gave Man Utd a total of 85 points and worked down from there.

--

This was Stan James prediction for last season:

Chelsea - 85
Man United - 75
Arsenal - 73
Liverpool - 73
Tottenham - 61
Newcastle - 49
Blackburn - 48
Everton - 48
Bolton - 46
Man City - 46
Middlesbrough - 46
West Ham - 45
Aston Villa - 43
Portsmouth - 43
Fulham - 40
Charlton - 39
Wigan - 38
Reading - 35
Sheff Utd - 30
Watford - 30

They underrated Reading by more points than any other team, so Reading won the handicap betting. That's why I'm looking for the teams the bookies are underrating. I couldn't care who they've overrated. atm I'm thinking Arsenal but there's a lot more knowledgable people than me on here to hopefully give their opinions.

eirebhoy

Sorry for all these long posts but I'm trying to exploit this the best way possible.

Answer these questions with your best predicting (last season's points gap in brackets):

Will Man Utd finish at least 13 points ahead of Arsenal? (last season: 21)
Will Chelsea finish at least 11 points ahead of Arsenal? (last season: 15)
Will Liverpool finish at least 6 points ahead of Arsenal? (last season: 0)
Will Arsenal finish at least 8 points ahead of Tottenham? (last season: 8)
Will Arsenal finish at least 17 points ahead of Newcastle? (last season: 25)
Will Arsenal finish at least 19 points ahead of Aston Villa? (last season: 18)
Will Arsenal finish at least 19 points ahead of Everton? (last season: 10)
Will Arsenal finish at least 20 points ahead of Blackburn? (last season: 16)
Will Arsenal finish at least 22 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 12)
Will Arsenal finish at least 22 points ahead of West Ham? (last season: 27)
Will Arsenal finish at least 26 points ahead of Bolton? (last season: 12)
Will Arsenal finish at least 27 points ahead of Man City? (last season: 26)
Will Arsenal finish at least 27 points ahead of Sunderland?
Will Arsenal finish at least 28 points ahead of Middlesbrough? (last season: 22)
Will Arsenal finish at least 28 points ahead of Reading? (last season: 13)
Will Arsenal finish at least 32 points ahead of Fulham? (last season: 29)
Will Arsenal finish at least 33 points ahead of Birmingham?
Will Arsenal finish at least 33 points ahead of Wigan? (last season: 30)
Will Arsenal finish at least 37 points ahead of Derby?

I'm mad I know but odds of 15/1 have to be exploited.

PHB

Will Liverpool finish at least 6 points ahead of Arsenal? (last season: 0)

I wouldn't make that bet.

Nor this one:

Will Arsenal finish at least 27 points ahead of Man City? (last season: 26)

Drag00n79

eirebhoy wrote:

Will Arsenal finish at least 19 points ahead of Everton? (last season: 10)

That would surprise me.

eirebhoy

Shamrok wrote:

That would surprise me.

So you feel Everton have a better chance of winning the handicap league than Arsenal do. Now you just have to answer similar questions about Everton.

Will Man Utd finish at least 34 points ahead of Everton? (last season: 31)
Will Chelsea finish at least 32 points ahead of Everton? (last season: 25)
Will Liverpool finish at least 26 points ahead of Everton? (last season: 10)
Will Tottenham finish at least 12 points ahead of Everton? (last season: 2)
Will Newcastle finish at least 3 points ahead of Everton? (last season: -15)
---
Will Everton finish at least 1 point ahead of Aston Villa? (last season: 8)
Will Everton finish at least 1 points ahead of Blackburn? (last season: 6)
Will Everton finish at least 3 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 2)
Will Everton finish at least 3 points ahead of West Ham? (last season: 17)
Will Everton finish at least 7 points ahead of Bolton? (last season: 2)
Will Everton finish at least 8 points ahead of Man City? (last season: 16)
Will Everton finish at least 8 points ahead of Sunderland?
Will Everton finish at least 9 points ahead of Middlesbrough? (last season: 12)
Will Everton finish at least 9 points ahead of Reading? (last season: 3)
Will Everton finish at least 13 points ahead of Fulham? (last season: 19)
Will Everton finish at least 14 points ahead of Birmingham?
Will Everton finish at least 14 points ahead of Wigan? (last season: 20)
Will Everton finish at least 18 points ahead of Derby?

I think we're getting a little closer. If you answer YES to any questions in section 1, or NO to any questions in section 2 then let me know. Also let me know if you can't decide. 2 bets won't hurt at 15/1.

PHB you can answer the Everton - Man City question above for the time being.

Irish Wolf

I'd tend to agree with PHB regrding Liverpool...

I reckon Reading are there for at least another season, stong management and pretty solid squad imo, so

Will Arsenal finish at least 28 points ahead of Reading

gets the thumbs down..

~Rebel~

Eirebhoy im so confused!

Id say Man City will do much better then the predicted one shown in your first message anyway. Might be a good one to pounce on as they're buying decent players and clearly have plenty more to spent since they're rumoured to be making a big bid for chiellini (would be a good partner in defence with Dunne) and also Castilla who scores a lotta goals! Also well as already having bianchi who's already started well. I expect to see the midfield strengthened again, perhaps even SWP. Sven seems to be getting strong backing anyway. could see them finishing around 7th or 8th.

Pompy could do better as well, potentially Uefa cup places, building a fantastic team there, Muntari is a fantastic addition, as well as Nugent and Utaka. I would worry about them during the african nations though, they'll be losing 3 or 4 strikers (does Kanu still play internationally?) as well as Muntari for ghana. They do have decent enough cover in midfield though, and if Kanu doesnt play for Nigeria himself and Nugent up front isn't a bad fallback. They should have a fairly strong defence with the addition of Distin as well.

eirebhoy

I think you've just pretty much sold Pompey to me. Boyle Sports offer will do me. A 37 point handicap at 16/1.

I'll probably change my mind tomorrow though. Actually, their strikers don't look too great. Kanu is gone. Their defence is excellent though.

PHB

OK, looking back at your initial post, I think there are three good bets in there.
Arsenal, Man City, Portsmouth.
Personally, I think Arsenal are a very good bet there.

eirebhoy

I think I'm gonna stick with Pompey.

Would anyone answer YES to any of the questions below:

Will Man Utd finish at least 37 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 35)
Will Chelsea finish at least 36 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 29)
Will Liverpool finish at least 28 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 14)
Will Arsenal finish at least 24 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 14)
Will Tottenham finish at least 16 points ahead of Portsmouth? (last season: 6)
Will Newcastle finish at least 9 points ahead of Portsmouth ? (last season: -11)
Will Everton finish at least 5 points ahead of Portsmouth ? (last season: 4)
Will Aston Villa finish at least 5 points ahead of Portsmouth ? (last season: -4)
Will West Ham finish at least 4 points ahead of Portsmouth ? (last season: -13)


Would anyone answer NO to any of the questions below:

Will Portsmouth finish at least 1 point ahead of Blackburn? (last season: 2)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 1 points ahead of Sunderland?
Will Portsmouth finish at least 2 points ahead of Man City? (last season: 12)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 2 points ahead of Bolton? (last season: -2)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 4 points ahead of Reading? (last season: -1)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 4 points ahead of Middlesbrough? (last season: 8)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 10 points ahead of Birmingham?
Will Portsmouth finish at least 10 points ahead of Fulham? (last season: 15)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 11 points ahead of Wigan? (last season: 16)
Will Portsmouth finish at least 14 points ahead of Derby?

dodgey69

i think Blackburn and West Ham will finish above Pompy.

i would go with west ham to be honest, few decent signings and id say there will be more faces to be brought in.

if not them then everton

astrofool

Who won it the previous two seasons? Wigan then Reading? If so, then the skill will be to pick the lowest team which is going to go on a good run this year. Sunderland may be a good pick. While all the above arguments are very rational, I don't see a mid to top table team being the one to surprise everybody. I'd be looking more like Villa/City/Sunderland, who all finished very low last season (or not in the div).