Scotland vs Argentina RWC QF

badbrian

What do we think here. I have to confess I've not watched a whole load of this so my rationale may well be flawed...

Argentina have a very good record against France since the turn of the century so I expected them to run them close. Ireland had underperformed and Argentina played a gameplan against an underperforming Ireland which worked perfectly.
Argentina lost with a full strength team pre-tournament against Wales. So should they really be such strong favourites.

I didn't expect Scotland to get out of the group. Losing by 40 points to NZ wasn't terrible (not scoring at all was a concern though). They beat Ireland handy in their build-up so their confidence should be on the up.

This is a QF. I expect Scotland to have a better idea than Ireland if Argentina play the same game of kick the ball long and batter the team trying to run the ball back at them.

So Scotland at 9/2 4/1 look good value and surely they should easily stay within the handicap 13 or 14 points?

jobless

i dont see scotland winning to be honest..... they could stay within the handicap though cause they will kick penalties when they get them. close one though...

myflipflops

Have to disagree brian, i see no way scotland can win this match (barring something unbelievable). Putting any credence on warm up games is not great logic. Scotland beat an Ireland 2nd string team and considering how badly our 1st string ended up playing, that doesn't say much. THe Wales - Argentina game was played when Argentina had almost no time in camp and i think can be discounted.

The relevant evidence is from this tournament. Argentina have been a relevation - defensively excellent (2 tries conceded), good kicking game, a huge pack that's also disciplined (i don't expect patterson to get too many kicks at goal), a good running game at times and a superb gameplan for each match. The Scots have been passable at best. They did what they had to against Italy but only just. They have one was to play - bang it up through the pack and win penalties. Scotland are second best in almost every position from 1-8 this time so they are in trouble. Defensively, they are generally excellent so i think they have a good chance of beating the handicap but i still backed Argentina -12 for the craic.

If you want a good bet (in my opinion) on the quarter finals, i've backed the match fourfold of OZ, NZ, SA & Argentina @ 1.79 (basically 4/5) on Betfair. Looks a big price for something thats 1/2 with Ladbrokes.

Inquitus

pwhite587 wrote:

If you want a good bet (in my opinion) on the quarter finals, i've backed the match fourfold of OZ, NZ, SA & Argentina @ 1.79 (basically 4/5) on Betfair. Looks a big price for something thats 1/2 with Ladbrokes.

Not a bad punt tbh, I do see the Aussies as being vulnerable to England's forward strengths and maybe not having a huge amount of ball, but England have no try scoring edge, and as such will only record an unlikely win over Aus if they kick alot of penalties, and keep the aussie backline very quiet.

I am off to Cardiff today to cheer to French on against the Kiwi's tomorrow, upset here looks pretty damn unlikely, esp outside of France, but we all know what happened in 99 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQuZPsTftN8) and I hope for a similarly exciting game, but just can't see it happening tbh.

Argentina and SA I would bet the house on.

Inqui

PIMPHO

pwhite587 wrote:

Have to disagree brian, i see no way scotland can win this match (barring something unbelievable). Putting any credence on warm up games is not great logic. Scotland beat an Ireland 2nd string team and considering how badly our 1st string ended up playing, that doesn't say much. THe Wales - Argentina game was played when Argentina had almost no time in camp and i think can be discounted.

The relevant evidence is from this tournament. Argentina have been a relevation - defensively excellent (2 tries conceded), good kicking game, a huge pack that's also disciplined (i don't expect patterson to get too many kicks at goal), a good running game at times and a superb gameplan for each match. The Scots have been passable at best. They did what they had to against Italy but only just. They have one was to play - bang it up through the pack and win penalties. Scotland are second best in almost every position from 1-8 this time so they are in trouble. Defensively, they are generally excellent so i think they have a good chance of beating the handicap but i still backed Argentina -12 for the craic.

If you want a good bet (in my opinion) on the quarter finals, i've backed the match fourfold of OZ, NZ, SA & Argentina @ 1.79 (basically 4/5) on Betfair. Looks a big price for something thats 1/2 with Ladbrokes.

Just about to post this. I just lumped on the 4 favourites with Stan James. €10 pays €17.45, odds of 0.745. Betfair are 0.72 but you have to pay commission on your winnings.

Come on OZ, NZ, SA and Arg!! :P

jobless

i did the same pimpho...lumped on Oz, NZ and Arg...

PIMPHO

jobless wrote:

i did the same pimpho...lumped on Oz, NZ and Arg...

What about SA?