My MUG €5 to €500 Thread.

Raskolnikov · 19-10-2007 9:23pm #1

Following the incredible success of mike65's thread, I decided I would give this a bash

Obviously it's going to fail miserably, but I can live the dream, can't I?

Argentina to beat France in the WC 3rd Place Play-off at 1.09 for €5 while 22-3 up.
No hat-trick to be scored in Everton vs. Liverpool match at 1.03 for €5.43.
Chelsea to beat Middlesborough at 1.88 for €2.
England to beat South Africa with a 20.5 pts headstart at 1.29 for €7.25.
Lay Numancia/Numancia to win against Celta Vigo at 8.4 for liability of €7.40
Backing Under 4.5 goals in AC Milan V Empoli at 1.16 for €10.19.
Backing Roger Federer to beat David Nalbandian at 1.23 for €11.74.

Raskolnikov · 19-10-2007 9:32pm

Try Argentina! 27-3 to the Pumas with less than 15 minutes to go

Raskolnikov · 19-10-2007 9:37pm

27-10, France score a try! Squeaky bum time for me.

Raskolnikov · 19-10-2007 9:44pm

32-10, Argies score a try, superb from Contepomi! This surely seals it for Argentina.

Mellor · 19-10-2007 9:49pm

Taking the argies to win was a fair cert.
It will take you ages to make it to 500

I posted up handicap odds that I thought were a steal, Arg -5 @ 5/6

Raskolnikov · 19-10-2007 9:49pm

A winner! Bank now stands at €5.43.

Raskolnikov · 19-10-2007 9:57pm

Mellor wrote: »

Taking the argies to win was a fair cert.
It will take you ages to make it to 500

I posted up handicap odds that I thought were a steal, Arg -5 @ 5/6

To be honest, I didn't want to be wiped out on my first bet

Mellor · 19-10-2007 10:48pm

If you remember from mike65's thread.
The risk is greater but thr return is greater. If you made mutliple bets like the one above, by the time you reach the same reward as the 5/6 bet, the total risk would of also been the same, infact it might of even be more as there was much more value in the handicap bet.
The chances of france winning the match weren't too far from their chances of being within 5, but the difference is odds was considerable. There has been great value in the handicap bets all RWC.

The bets you are making are really short, infact boringly so. It will take you ages to make any money, and somewhere there will be a hiccup.

Raskolnikov · 20-10-2007 3:05am

Mellor wrote: »

The bets you are making are really short, infact boringly so. It will take you ages to make any money, and somewhere there will be a hiccup.

Sorry for disappointing you dude!

ErinGoBrath · 20-10-2007 11:28am

Mellor wrote: »

The bets you are making are really short, infact boringly so. It will take you ages to make any money, and somewhere there will be a hiccup.

The only way this'll work is if he's extremely cautious. Besides, it's his thread not yours so if you find it boring don't bother reading it???

mike65 · 20-10-2007 11:40am

G'wan Raskolnikov!

Ignore the begrudgers, of whom there seem to be far too many on gambling.

Just for a laugh (ahem) I put a fiver on a four match Championship accum, if it comes off it'll yeild €125.

Mike.

Raskolnikov · 20-10-2007 2:52pm

Two goals for Kujt, not a hat-trick though

€5.58.

Going to stick €2 on Chelsea to beat 'Boro at 1.88. Chelsea not exactly in the best shape, but they should have enough to cream 'Boro.

Raskolnikov · 20-10-2007 3:11pm

Chelsea 1-0 up!

Did you say something Mellor?

Bubs101 · 20-10-2007 5:37pm

It's fairly boring. C'mon. A 2 euro bet??

Raskolnikov · 20-10-2007 5:37pm

Chelsea win easily.

Bank at €7.25.

Backing England to win with a 20.5 pts headstart at 1.29 for €7.25.

Raskolnikov · 20-10-2007 5:41pm

Bubs101 wrote: »

It's fairly boring. C'mon. A 2 euro bet??

Small acrons, big trees and something such.

Hoping I can have my original €5 doubled by the end of the night.

Raskolnikov · 21-10-2007 10:27am

Bank now at €9.24 after the rugby success.

mike65 · 21-10-2007 11:40am

Small steps get you there. My 4 match accu leap did'nt get me anywhere. West Brom lost - the fools.

Mike.

Raskolnikov · 21-10-2007 2:15pm

Celta v Numancia finishes as draw/draw.

Bank now at €10.19.

Backing Under 4.5 goals in AC Milan V Empoli at 1.16 for €10.19.

Mellor · 21-10-2007 2:57pm

ErinGoBrath wrote: »

The only way this'll work is if he's extremely cautious. Besides, it's his thread not yours so if you find it boring don't bother reading it???

Being cautious has no bearing on this. The risk is the same for multiple short bets as for a single long one.

I wish you all the best in this. And boring probably wasn't the word I was after. But I think you are overlooking the risk, the bookie probably has more of an edge in these short bets. Under 4.5 goals is a fairly sure bet, but every now and again there will be an upset and we'll see a 4-1 result.

Raskolnikov · 21-10-2007 4:03pm

Empoli beat AC Milan away from home 1-0 :eek: I won't argue with the result though :cool:

Bank €11.74

Going all in on Roger Federer at 1.23 while Roger is a set up but a break down in the second.

Raskolnikov · 21-10-2007 4:05pm

The Fat Argie takes the second set :mad:

Priced at 1.32 now.

Keano · 22-10-2007 9:24am

Go on Raskolnikov get in there! F**k those that are negative towards this type of betting. Its only a bit of fun! We are not out to make millions!

lolkelly · 22-10-2007 10:05am

Keano A Legend wrote: »

Go on Raskolnikov get in there! F**k those that are negative towards this type of betting. Its only a bit of fun! We are not out to make millions!

LOL....you do realise he lost it all yesterday with Federer losing?!!

badbrian · 22-10-2007 10:11am

Personally I'm glad this has run its course. It took 3 days to win under €7.

Please let's have no more. It's not that I mind anyone doing them I just don't believe they are worthy of individual threads.

And with regard to the bet that let this down. Nalbandian has now won 7 out of their last 15 meetings and was by far the better value bet in this match.

Bubs101 · 22-10-2007 10:16am

I think this was just stupidly boring. I liked the other one when proper risks were taken

Keano · 22-10-2007 11:22am

As Andy Pipkin would say "Yeah I know"

To the rest "SHUT AP!!"

zuutroy · 22-10-2007 11:43am

I'll say what I always say. You will NEVER make money by gambling on things you think are going to happen, no matter how certain you are. You win at gambling by finding value.

BrandonBlock · 22-10-2007 1:48pm

These threads are retarded. Full stop.

Mellor · 22-10-2007 9:05pm

Keano A Legend wrote: »

Go on Raskolnikov get in there! F**k those that are negative towards this type of betting. Its only a bit of fun! We are not out to make millions!

Thats really constructive.
I would imagine that most boards users aren't here to make millions, but obviously we all like a flutter. In general the advice posted here tried to explain the difference between a bet likely to win, and a bet that contains alot of value.

zuutroy wrote: »

I'll say what I always say. You will NEVER make money by gambling on things you think are going to happen, no matter how certain you are. You win at gambling by finding value.

I made this point previous in the thread, and is this point that is paramount. Value does not mean the bet is likely to happen. It means that a bet is more likely to happen than the break even point of the odds. This is the EV(expected value) of the bet, we should bet on +EV bets only (or neutral or slightly even for fun only)

osgur · 23-10-2007 4:15pm

Mellor wrote: »

Thats really constructive.
I would imagine that most boards users aren't here to make millions, but obviously we all like a flutter. In general the advice posted here tried to explain the difference between a bet likely to win, and a bet that contains alot of value.

I made this point previous in the thread, and is this point that is paramount. Value does not mean the bet is likely to happen. It means that a bet is more likely to happen than the break even point of the odds. This is the EV(expected value) of the bet, we should bet on +EV bets only (or neutral or slightly even for fun only)

I disagree, what if you are a really good judge

My MUG €5 to €500 Thread.

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