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My MUG €5 to €500 Thread.

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    #32
    growler
    Registered Users Posts: 2,188 ✭✭✭growler


    osgur wrote: »
    I disagree, what if you are a really good judge




    the point isn't whether you're a good judge or not, it doesn't take a great judge of football to guess that chelsea will probably beat leicester at the weekend, but whether there is any great value in the odds offered is a different matter.


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    #33
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,300 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    osgur wrote: »
    I disagree, what if you are a really good judge
    That makes no sense. A judge of what.
    This is pure maths. There is no opinion to it. The only way you can long term make money from betting is to take bets were the chances of it happening are greater than the payout %.
    The skill comes into it when we assess the chances of a bet of happening, as nobody truely knows this.


    It isn't hard to select a single winning bets. But the easy ones to pick have no value in them. You will be risking a small large amount to win a small one. And the one time it messes up. You lose all the profits and maybe more.


    An example of value can be seen in the tennis bet.
    Roger Federer was at 1.23 to win while a set up, but down in the second.
    This was only one set in, the match was always going to be tight, and someone had to win the first.
    David Nalbandian would of been about 7/2 at this point (ammusing a book just over 100%). Seeing as he was also up in the second set. This is clearly a good bet as his chances of winning are better than the 22.2% required.


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