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Heineken Cup

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  • 01-11-2007 3:41pm
    #1
    wixfjord
    Site Banned Posts: 5,346 ✭✭✭


    Anyone see any value in this market?? Cant see any irish team maing a big impact with the groups. Gloucester to win group at 10/11 sounds good tho. Mite stick a tenner on scarlets to win it too


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    #2
    yahoo_moe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭yahoo_moe


    Wasps at 9-4 to win their group would seem generous to me

    EDIT: actually, Munster and Wasps are each 9-4 to win the group with Paddy Power so the real value is probably in backing them both at equal stakes and effectively taking 5-4 that one of them will win it. With Clermont Auvergne and Llanelli as the other two in the group, I'd say it's quite likely either Munster or Wasps will win it so better than evens between them would seem a pretty good bet...


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    #3
    DMG 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭DMG 1972


    wixfjord wrote: »
    Anyone see any value in this market?? Cant see any irish team maing a big impact with the groups. Gloucester to win group at 10/11 sounds good tho. Mite stick a tenner on scarlets to win it too

    I thought Ospreys to win the group at 15/8 was a better bet, they have brought in some talent during the summer and I think they will be stronger than Gloucester. The other bet I went for was a treble of group winners Stade, Biarritz and Perpignan all to win at 11/10.


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    #4
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,455 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    yahoo_moe wrote: »
    actually, Munster and Wasps are each 9-4 to win the group with Paddy Power so the real value is probably in backing them both at equal stakes and effectively taking 5-4 that one of them will win it. With Clermont Auvergne and Llanelli as the other two in the group, I'd say it's quite likely either Munster or Wasps will win it so better than evens between them would seem a pretty good bet...

    Your maths is a bit berserk there. Two 9/4 shots is roughly 4/6, nowhere near the 5/4 you say.


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    #5
    yahoo_moe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭yahoo_moe


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Your maths is a bit berserk there. Two 9/4 shots is roughly 4/6, nowhere near the 5/4 you say.

    Sorry forgot about the stake you lose (as we all like to do ;)) - yeah, it'll actually be 8/13... still likely to come in I'd have thought but not so great value


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    #6
    DMG 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭DMG 1972


    Anyone any thoughts on the handicaps for this weekends matches?
    Very hard to see any value , Was going to take Leicester to beat Leinster at scratch as I feel Leinster just don't seem to have got their act together yet and Leicester seemed very clinical last week against Cardiff.

    I think Gloucester should cover the 4 point handicap against Ulster - Ulster are due a good match though , hopefully it won't be this evening.

    Will also have a bet on Munster +5 v Wasps, Wasps without Vickery and Lewsey and Cipriani at 10? Has he ever played there before?

    Anyone see any money to be made?
    Can any of the lads who made fortunes on the world cup share their expertise?


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    #7
    myflipflops
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    yahoo_moe wrote: »
    Wasps at 9-4 to win their group would seem generous to me

    With Clermont Auvergne and Llanelli as the other two in the group, I'd say it's quite likely either Munster or Wasps will win it

    That's fairly flawed thinking. Llanelli are the team that knocked Munster out last year and Clermont (while not one of the 'big' names) were about 5 minutes from winning the French Top 14 last year and have added a lot of top players to their squad. The Clermont team for this weekend has Rougerie, Canale, Bai, Butch James, Bonnaire, Scelzo and Ledesma starting as well as having John Smit and Delasau on the bench. It's a serious squad. On paper Munster are probably the third best team in this group and 9/4 looks much more of a lay. You also have to look at the fact that there almost certainly won't be a second team qualify from this group. You do have to factor in Munster's record in the competition and give them a shout and they may be worth a punt to beat Wasps this weekend but to rule out the Welsh and French teams here offhand is dangerous.


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    #8
    zAbbo
    Registered Users Posts: 11,987 ✭✭✭✭zAbbo


    Skimmed over various forum posts.

    I prefer to look at a match by match basis.

    I remember last year, some decent winnings came in on the early games.

    Tonight with Ulster against Gloucester should be interesting, in how much Ulster will get spanked.

    They are a poor team, and their signings haven't really paid off. Dewey is average and predicatable, Danelli can't get a game over youngster McCrea and Del Fava hasn't look great yet. Add in The Humph is on the bench, and no Stephen Ferris it's not looking to good.

    Contrast that to Gloucester who have Lesley Vainikolo (aka Volcana) back - rugby league convert, absolute beast of a winger.

    The only thing Ulster have going for them, is that it's a home game, and if they can keep it anyway tight, they've got the mercurial Humph on the bench.

    That said, Betfair odds on Glous +10.5 @ 1.2 is free money


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    #9
    wixfjord
    Site Banned Posts: 5,346 ✭✭✭wixfjord


    Gloucester looked good tonight. Dont think there good enough to win it tho. Biarritz -24.5 @1.93 on betfair looks good should beat viadana easily. Bristol +12.5 against cardiff at 1.91 maybe too.


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