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Budget Day - How empty is the cupboard?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,424 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    lol - love the armchair economics. Are you coming up with the estimate that growth will be half the 3% based on any particular economics model? 3% is about consensus amongst actual economists who study growth rates.

    not really. Cowen et al are over optimistic about the global and national economy. I'm taking their predictions and cutting them.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I second the lol..


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    lol - love the armchair economics. Are you coming up with the estimate that growth will be half the 3% based on any particular economics model? 3% is about consensus amongst actual economists who study growth rates.

    would these be the same economists who predicted house prices to rise by approx 8% in 2007 based on previous growth rates?

    going on current growth rates compared with jan 2007 predictions to where they are now I'd say Akrasia is about right


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Uhm who predicted house prices to rise 8% miju? and more importantly when did they make such predictions? Oh and what percentage of the economy is house building?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Tristrame wrote: »
    Uhm who predicted house prices to rise 8% miju? and more importantly when did they make such predictions? Oh and what percentage of the economy is house building?

    Well to be more precise the figures quoted ranged rom 6% to 8% depending on the economist but a quick google throws up an example of the greatly revered economist Austin Hughes though he's an easy example as he changes his predictions every week. Theres actually a thread over on thepropertypin.com thats recorded various chief economists "predictions" over the last year and a bit.
    According to the IIB report 'Irish housing market outlook 2006/7', house prices will increase by 13% this year and 7% next year.

    Article Here think that was around Sept 2006

    Haven't got the figure for percentage of economy but I think most would agree that the economy is over reliant on construction (which is where the nice big hole in this years budget came from due to the downturn). Though IIRC for every 10,000 less houses built in a year it knocks approx 1% off our GDP or thereabouts.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    miju wrote: »
    Well to be more precise the figures quoted ranged rom 6% to 8% depending on the economist but a quick google throws up an example of the greatly revered economist Austin Hughes though he's an easy example as he changes his predictions every week. Theres actually a thread over on thepropertypin.com thats recorded various chief economists "predictions" over the last year and a bit.
    Ah back in 2006,those halcien days when there was no speculation on stamp duty ( a Huge factor in slowing decisions on house purchases ) and no fore seeable credit crunch.Obviously house prices couldn't continue rising,that would be an impossibility.It had to stop or slow somewhere or re adjust to reality.
    Predictions made now for the housing sector are in the light of both of those.
    Haven't got the figure for percentage of economy but I think most would agree that the economy is over reliant on construction (which is where the nice big hole in this years budget came from due to the downturn). Though IIRC for every 10,000 less houses built in a year it knocks approx 1% off our GDP or thereabouts.
    About 10 to 15% iirc which would tend to suggest the emphasis on it being such a vital sector is over rated.It would want to collapse altogether for any serious impact and I think we could both agree thats not likely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,828 ✭✭✭ven0m


    Budget was a joke! It was nothing more than an exercise of sleight of hand .... we'll give you money in this hand (tax credits increase, card stamp duty) & take it back off you in the other hand (motor tax, fags)

    I worked out that personally with the tax credit increases I am 0.5% better off, while that arrogant b*****d who calls himself Taoiseach is 11% better off with his fatcat payrise when the country is in a sh*te; healthcare, roads, carbon emissions.

    If they were SERIOUS about carbon emissions, road tax on private cars would be exempt, & instead a levy put against fuel; the more you use, the more you contribute to carbon emissions, the more you pay ..... simple ... this was nothin more than a cynical smash-and-grab of the average person's pockets ..... even the increases for child welfare (not that I have any kids!) was a disgrace ... it will only push people back out of the workforce with increasing childminding costs in ireland ......

    Yes, I'm whinging & moaning & there's f**k all I can do about our government (apart from not vote for them) - but peole in this country are so apathetic to when it comes time to vote, that frankly - we all really get what we deservee cos so many lazy b*****ds don't bother their arse to get up, go out & vote.......



    /END_RANT



    :::: ven0mous ::::


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Biffo was just talking about excise duty on fuel and said no due to its inflationary impact (which would be very big in year one, current inflation is 5%).

    Mike.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,828 ✭✭✭ven0m


    mike65 wrote: »
    Biffo was just talking about excise duty on fuel and said no due to its inflationary impact (which would be very big in year one, current inflation is 5%).

    Mike.

    Inflation 5%, average person better off by 0.5% ........ so how does Biffo figure he's helping the economy with the majority of people in this situation ...... it's not .... and don't get me started on "Gormley" ....... his party are the biggest hypocrits in the government ..........

    "green" my hole!!!!!!! case in point, NONE of their election flyers were printed on recycled paper, & their posters they put up were on non-bio-degradable plastic using non-bio-degradable plastic cable ties, which is made from petroleum by-products - of whose production contributes to green house gases & carbon emissions ...... yet I never once saw a motion from them to ban these kind of posters on the grounds of them not being "green" or "carbon friendly" ....... I asked a green candidate at my door around election time about it, who slammed my own sliding door closed on me & walked away ..... I won't name name, but he represents kildare north ;-) He did this on a few people in the area who tackled him about it ........


    :::: ven0mous ::::


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭sovtek


    mike65 wrote: »
    Credits up 70 single/140 married

    Crap I'm about to get divorced. Oh well it'll be worth it. :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,994 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    ven0m wrote: »
    Budget was a joke! It was nothing more than an exercise of sleight of hand .... we'll give you money in this hand (tax credits increase, card stamp duty) & take it back off you in the other hand (motor tax, fags)

    Well they can't just print off money and give it to you. All they can decide is what limited resources go where. I would consider things like owning a car and cigarettes to be "luxury" items. By putting more tax on these, we have more money to take people on poorer incomes out of the tax net, thus delivering a "fairer" Budget imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,828 ✭✭✭ven0m


    Stark wrote: »
    Well they can't just print off money and give it to you. All they can decide is what limited resources go where. I would consider things like owning a car and cigarettes to be "luxury" items. By putting more tax on these, we have more money to take people on poorer incomes out of the tax net, thus delivering a "fairer" Budget imo.


    "Fair" would be the government doing a u-turn on their big pay increases & public sector pay increases, & also a u-turn on the 32million about to be forked over to those jokers in the GAA for their "county players" ..... that's money in both cases better spent on the HSE ...... approx. 64 million euros buys alot of medical equipment ........ so you tell me what's truly fair .... the rest of us have to tighten belts but the government don't have to? That sounds like facism to me ......


    Also, the majority of smokers in ireland ARE in the poor bracket ....... so do the maths on that one .....

    This is a government that hasn't a clue - no mention of extra money for mental health services either even though it's the biggest growing area of concern for the HSE, which is becoming a bigger international problem also ........



    :::: ven0mous ::::


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    ven0m wrote: »
    "Fair" would be the government doing a u-turn on their big pay increases & public sector pay increases, & also a u-turn on the 32million about to be forked over to those jokers in the GAA for their "county players" ..... that's money in both cases better spent on the HSE ...... approx. 64 million euros buys alot of medical equipment ........ so you tell me what's truly fair .... the rest of us have to tighten belts but the government don't have to? That sounds like facism to me ......
    The problems in the health service have little to do with the amount of money given and everything to do with the amount of money spent. No matter how much money you give the HSE, it will be spent with very little return. Consultants and management have the whole thing sown up tight. Until we break them, money is irrelevant.
    Also, the majority of smokers in ireland ARE in the poor bracket ....... so do the maths on that one .....
    Stop smoking == less poverty? :)
    Seriously though, nobody is forcing anybody to smoke. How can you say that a tax on cigarettes is unfair on the poor? That's like saying that a tax on ivory backscratchers is unfair on the rich. Cigarettes are 100% luxury items. If you can't afford them, stop smoking them.

    Tax will *always* impact the poorest people first, no matter where you apply it. Increase the higher band tax rate, and the cost of doing business goes up, impacting the poorest most. That's the nature of taxation.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Smokers get what they deserve as apparently do car owners now.

    Mike.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,828 ✭✭✭ven0m


    seamus wrote: »
    The problems in the health service have little to do with the amount of money given and everything to do with the amount of money spent. No matter how much money you give the HSE, it will be spent with very little return. Consultants and management have the whole thing sown up tight. Until we break them, money is irrelevant.
    Stop smoking == less poverty? :)
    Seriously though, nobody is forcing anybody to smoke. How can you say that a tax on cigarettes is unfair on the poor? That's like saying that a tax on ivory backscratchers is unfair on the rich. Cigarettes are 100% luxury items. If you can't afford them, stop smoking them.

    Tax will *always* impact the poorest people first, no matter where you apply it. Increase the higher band tax rate, and the cost of doing business goes up, impacting the poorest most. That's the nature of taxation.


    What is it with boardies reading into things that aren't there ....... sheeesssshhh

    Smoking is more predominant through the poorer levels of society, & instead of being a more socially responsible government and going on a drive aimed towards these people, they instead take more money off them. Yes smoking is a choice, so is living ... so what ..... the simple fact is that it is David-Copperfield-style-economics being bandied by a government with no balls. If you want people stopping smoking, ban the sale of them altogether.

    In relation to the stuff with consultants - again, you're glossing over the facts when this thread is about the budget .... money is going to the wrong areas in any case. I will veer off slgihtly (so apologies).

    The institutions looking after mental health are woefully underfunded, and little is being done to address it. Even money for machines, 64 million euros would replace a number of cancer check machines. Yes I'm aware of the blah blah about people who manage the HSE - but again, that comes down to this government & its continued trouserless approach to management where apparently no-one is responsible for everything ........
    leaders are responsible for troops .... beginning, middle & end of.

    This is a sham budget, which is a contradiction to election promises made by the majority party in government who knew full well the state of irish finances at the election time, and it is a budget that does nothing to help the weak & vulnerable in our society as the biffo claimed ....... it'll be the last time Fianna Fail ever get a vote from me or many others I know, or the last time I ever do work for them on their behalf at grassroots ........


    :::: ven0mous ::::


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    ven0m wrote: »
    If you want people stopping smoking, ban the sale of them altogether.
    Then where would you get the money from? :)

    That smoking still exists in 30% (?) of the population means that you can't just stop selling it. It brings in a lot of money for the Government. They know that smoking puts a massive strain on the health services, but they're not interested in eradicating it overnight. You couldn't remove that amount of money in one fell swoop, much like you couldn't remove VRT or Stamp Duty in one go.

    That poor people smoke more I think is irrelevant. If they can't afford them, they won't buy them. If they want to smoke, let them puff away and fund the rest of us.
    In relation to the stuff with consultants - again, you're glossing over the facts when this thread is about the budget .... money is going to the wrong areas in any case. I will veer off slgihtly (so apologies).
    You said the money "would be better spent on the HSE". I disagree 100%. The HSE needs to better spend its money.
    64 million euros would replace a number of cancer check machines.
    In theory. In reality, that 64 million would be spent in the first week in January, on almost nothing.
    This is a sham budget, which is a contradiction to election promises made by the majority party in government who knew full well the state of irish finances at the election time, and it is a budget that does nothing to help the weak & vulnerable in our society as the biffo claimed
    The impending economic issues were evident well in advance of the election. Everyone who did some independent research and watched the markets knew that FF would be unable to deliver on any promises in their first 3 years.
    I wouldn't say it's a sham budget, just a bit of an uninspired one. For most people, there will be little difference between this year and the last.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,983 ✭✭✭leninbenjamin


    seamus wrote: »
    TThey know that smoking puts a massive strain on the health services,

    slightly off topic, but this is something that constantly rankles me. that is actually wrong.

    1) smokers contribute more revenue to fund the health service than they will typically utilise in services under the current tax regime.

    2) over the course of their lifetimes smokers actually use up less health resources than someone who lives a long life. it's someone who gets to the age of 80 but spends a lot of time in and out of hospital with various ailments in the last few years of their life.

    if everyone was a smoker our health system would have more resources available to it and less drains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    slightly off topic, but this is something that constantly rankles me. that is actually wrong.

    1) smokers contribute more revenue to fund the health service than they will typically utilise in services under the current tax regime.

    2) over the course of their lifetimes smokers actually use up less health resources than someone who lives a long life. it's someone who gets to the age of 80 but spends a lot of time in and out of hospital with various ailments in the last few years of their life.

    if everyone was a smoker our health system would have more resources available to it and less drains.

    I think they should tax alcohol and junk food and the lifestyle that goes with them if thats the case they're probably the reason the health service is overburdened. My grandmother is over 83 years old smokes and is rarely in hospital afaik and neither drinks nor eats poorly. (Could resist this post :) )


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,994 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Well they already tax alcohol to the hilt ;)

    I don't think our health minister would be too happy about a tax on junk food :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Stark wrote: »
    I don't think our health minister would be too happy about a tax on junk food :p

    LOL!!!

    What the f*ck can't tobacco be taken out of the CPI and then lump as much as possible onto the cost. 30c increases will not result in many people giving up. Demand for cigarettes is inelastic (surely) as long as the increases are relatively moderate. If a huge chunk (25% or more) was whacked on the price the demand may become elastic. As things stand an increase of x% in price will lead to a decrease in sales of less than x% and hence an increase in revenue*

    *disclaimer, the above is based on intuition, I haven't looked at actual figures :D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    Both are surprising, the tax on credit/laser cards is unpopular but is a sneaky tax, like the insurance levy, that not many people spend too much time pondering. When they pay it once a year they give out, then forget about it in a weeks time.

    You get taxed on laser cards as well? AIB sent me a letter saying I'd be receiving a new laser card in the next few weeks, even though I didn't ask them for one. Sneaky bastards.

    Also, a tenner extra on my dole isn't exactly living the high life.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,994 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Yup. The taxes used to be €40 pa on a credit card and €20 pa on a laser+ATM card. (€10 on a standard ATM card). Those taxes are being reduced to €30, €10 and €5 from what I can remember.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,831 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Any change in the Stamp Duty on cheques?


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    SeanW wrote: »
    Any change in the Stamp Duty on cheques?
    Yep. Doubled to 30c.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,310 ✭✭✭markpb


    You get taxed on laser cards as well? AIB sent me a letter saying I'd be receiving a new laser card in the next few weeks, even though I didn't ask them for one. Sneaky bastards.

    If you only ever use the Lazer card in ATMs, you'll be charged government tax as an ATM card. If you use it only in shops, you'll be charged as a debit card. If you use both, you pay both. Apparently anyway :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65



    Also, a tenner extra on my dole isn't exactly living the high life.

    To be fair the dole is'nt meant to be a lifestyle choice. Not sure how it goes these days but I'm pretty sure they have claimants in for a chat and some "suggestions" quite frequently.

    Mike.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Also, a tenner extra on my dole isn't exactly living the high life.

    get a job so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,399 ✭✭✭kluivert


    Also, a tenner extra on my dole isn't exactly living the high life.

    Please tell me your not getting the dole. Dont get me started on that one. If you and me met one day I can assure you that you would be working by the end of it. There are loads of jobs out there.

    I second the point made above about mental health and intellectual disability services. There are none in the North East, North West, South East and South west. Dublin and Galway are catered for but no where else.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    kluivert wrote: »
    I can assure you that you would be working by the end of it. There are loads of jobs out there.

    Not sure why you would get worked up about it. TBH it depends on each person and their situation. If I was to be unemployed I am sure I could easily find a low paying job, but it doesn't mean I would take it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,994 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Hobbes wrote: »
    Not sure why you would get worked up about it. TBH it depends on each person and their situation. If I was to be unemployed I am sure I could easily find a low paying job, but it doesn't mean I would take it.

    It's against the law not to take a job when you're claiming the dole. The conditions clearly state that you must be available for and actively seeking work.


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