Is the Lotto above board?

JayoCluxton

I play the Lotto most draws and then when a biggie comes along, I invariably go into various syndicates in work, pub etc. These are usually Quick Picks but I have noticed that the numbers we click on these are unusually low.

Example, last night in 23 lines (lotto lines that is!) we had the number 43 - which came out in the draw - ONCE! We had 40 four times, 41 four times, 42 four times, 44 five times and 45 three times! Coincidence eh!

Of the other numbers that came out we had 13 twice, 17 twice and 28 twice! Before you statos start coming in with mathemathical equations and spreadsheets, nothing will convince me that Quick Picks aren't dodgy!

Also any time we are approaching a Bank Holiday or Easter or Paddys Day there is a massive rollover.

So it wasn't won last night but I'll be fcuked if any syndicate I am in is gonna do a Quick Pick from now on. You have been warned!

cornbb

Its independently checked out out by mathematicians and statisticians from trinners/UCD every week AFAIK.

Anyway the Lotto is a pile of shíte, its another stealth tax and a handy way for the Government to claim back social welfare payments.

aidan_walsh

JayoCluxton wrote:

nothing will convince me that Quick Picks aren't dodgy!

Then pick your own numbers. Problem solved.

prendy

Also any time we are approaching a Bank Holiday or Easter or Paddys Day there is a massive rollover.

we were just on about the same. suddenly its christmas and the jackpot is huge menaing they wont have to add the extra million they usually do for these draws!
look at the size of the prizes for match 4 or 5...their tiny in comparrison.
i dont understand why they dont go up with the jackpot!

ejmaztec

Yes, it does seem an obvious "pure coincidence" that big rolled over payouts happen at certain festive times. Perhaps it's divine intervention. Those lotto balls move in mysterious ways;)

jameshayes

I heard some woman from the lotto on the radio the other day saying that they have never had this many rollovers before and that the money is huge blah blah blah - obviously they have more rollovers! they increased the odds of winning from 3mil:1 to 5mil:1 by adding extra numbers.

R-I-P off

ScumLord

I'm going to win for definite this time I had a chat with God and threatened to be good, he wants me nowhere near he's pad so he's said it's all mine.

CodeMonkey

cornbb wrote: »

Its independently checked out out by mathematicians and statisticians from trinners/UCD every week AFAIK.

Meh, then those guys wasted their education and whoever paid them to check wasted their money. I used to use Quick Pick too when a big jackpot appears and have noticed the same, you always get the same numbers (especially the 40+ ones) on different lines.

cornbb

CodeMonkey wrote: »

Meh, then those guys wasted their education and whoever paid them to check wasted their money. I used to use Quick Pick too when a big jackpot appears and have noticed the same, you always get the same numbers (especially the 40+ ones) on different lines.

I'd take sound statistical analysis over something someone "noticed" any day. Its easy for your brain to pick up on a few recurring numbers and perceive it as strange. You need to look at a bigger picture (i.e. a sample of thousands of quick picks) to get a proper idea of the frequency of numbers reoccurring. If the National Lottery were fiddling the numbers you'd be sure that any joe soap with an honours maths Leaving Cert and a calculator would be onto it in a flash.

ScumLord

All my tickets seem to have 3 numbers in a row on each line. It might be 1,2,3 on one line and 32, 33, 34 on an other line. It's obviously a con, I move we burn down the lotto building.

godtabh

THe numbers are total random in quick pick. There are some many combinations and permutations that my head began tohurt trying to figure it out on the calculator.

You get a few permuations when you do you €4 quick pick with plus. DOnt complain if you dont get the numbers you want. Just pick your own ones.

ejmaztec

If I ever joined a jackpot-winning syndicate, you can bet your life that the one holding the ticket would feck off with all the money, never to be seen again. Some of us are born losers:(

godtabh

ejmaztec wrote: »

If I ever joined a jackpot-winning syndicate, you can bet your life that the one holding the ticket would feck off with all the money, never to be seen again. Some of us are born losers:(

Thats loser talk!

faceman

just when i thought we had heard all the conspiracy theories and rip off ireland stories along comes a lotto thread!

Seriously lads, if its a rip off dont do it!
if you dont like the numbers the quick pick gives you, pick your own!

the lotto website has quick alot of stats on previous draws etc.

Ultimately the chances of winning are minute but as a statistician once told me, "someone has to win".

leninbenjamin

chances of winning: 1 in 8 835 488 640

it's not called the stupidity tax for nothing/

godtabh

faceman wrote: »

"someone has to win".

eventually!

kleefarr

JayoCluxton wrote: »

I play the Lotto most draws and then when a biggie comes along, I invariably go into various syndicates in work, pub etc. These are usually Quick Picks but I have noticed that the numbers we click on these are unusually low.

Example, last night in 23 lines (lotto lines that is!) we had the number 43 - which came out in the draw - ONCE! We had 40 four times, 41 four times, 42 four times, 44 five times and 45 three times! Coincidence eh!

Of the other numbers that came out we had 13 twice, 17 twice and 28 twice! Before you statos start coming in with mathemathical equations and spreadsheets, nothing will convince me that Quick Picks aren't dodgy!

Also any time we are approaching a Bank Holiday or Easter or Paddys Day there is a massive rollover.

So it wasn't won last night but I'll be fcuked if any syndicate I am in is gonna do a Quick Pick from now on. You have been warned!

Funnily enough, my wife was just saying that it's seems every Christmas there's a big roll over. Is it fixed?

If it is, how would one prove it?

johnp

CodeMonkey wrote: »

Meh, then those guys wasted their education and whoever paid them to check wasted their money. I used to use Quick Pick too when a big jackpot appears and have noticed the same, you always get the same numbers (especially the 40+ ones) on different lines.

I remember reading somewhere that Lotto companies (not just here) were unhappy when Quick Picks came in, for the very reason that numbers in the high 30's and 40's were now being picked.
When the average person picks numbers they pick birthdays and favourite numbers etc, generally numbers less than 30.
So with the Quick Picks they reckoned there was less chance of a rollover. Less rollovers means less interest, which means less people playing.

Jesus Wept

JayoCluxton wrote: »

I play the Lotto most draws and then when a biggie comes along, I invariably go into various syndicates in work, pub etc. These are usually Quick Picks but I have noticed that the numbers we click on these are unusually low.

Example, last night in 23 lines (lotto lines that is!) we had the number 43 - which came out in the draw - ONCE! We had 40 four times, 41 four times, 42 four times, 44 five times and 45 three times! Coincidence eh!

Of the other numbers that came out we had 13 twice, 17 twice and 28 twice! Before you statos start coming in with mathemathical equations and spreadsheets, nothing will convince me that Quick Picks aren't dodgy!

Also any time we are approaching a Bank Holiday or Easter or Paddys Day there is a massive rollover.

So it wasn't won last night but I'll be fcuked if any syndicate I am in is gonna do a Quick Pick from now on. You have been warned!

That is unbelievable. This is truly an incredible discovery.
Your concise exposé has made me question the fundamentals not just of the National Lottery, but of the laws of the statistics, possibilities and averages themselves.

Please excuse me while I go write a letter to KPMG.

godtabh

johnp wrote: »

I remember reading somewhere that Lotto companies (not just here) were unhappy when Quick Picks came in, for the very reason that numbers in the high 30's and 40's were now being picked.

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

faceman

kearnsr wrote: »

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

you just melted by brain with that comment!

Cuddlesworth

The-Rigger wrote: »

Please excuse me while I go write a letter to KPMG.

I'm waiting.

tolosenc

Once played 2 Quick Picks that were exactly the same combination.

Peared

I love hearing people talk about the Lotto, tis hilarious. Have never heard a winner talk about "fixing" though. My favourite comments are the ones when a few numbers in a row get picked, like 1, 2 and 3 and people go around going "jaysus what are the chances of that?" Eh, same as the chances of any other numbers maybe?

I have even heard talk of "a little man under the machine" with a magnet.

astrofool

kearnsr wrote: »

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

The point he was making was that people themselves tended to pick numbers less than 30 (days in the month), so on average, the quick pick would cause less rollovers as 25% of the numbers (32-45) weren't getting picked as often as the rest pre-quick pick.

bill_ashmount

Peared wrote: »

My favourite comments are the ones when a few numbers in a row get picked, like 1, 2 and 3 and people go around going "jaysus what are the chances of that?" Eh, same as the chances of any other numbers maybe?

You'd be surprised how many people can't get their heads around this one.

johnp

kearnsr wrote: »

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

Exactly, each number has an equal chance of coming out. So if people are picking birthdays etc, they won't pick numbers from 32-45 (or whatever the highest number is). When these numbers aren't being picked there's more chance of a rollover.
Now with the quickpick, those numbers are being picked, so less chance of a rollover.

I think that's it anyways

kleefarr

kearnsr wrote: »

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

No. Take a roulette wheel for example. Each time the ball is spun all of the numbers have an equal chance of coming up, but it doesn't mean all numbers will come up an equal amount of times.

Flukey

leninbenjamin wrote: »

chances of winning: 1 in 8 835 488 640

it's not called the stupidity tax for nothing/

You are wrong. There are 8,145,060 possible combinations of numbers that can be drawn. So any given line has a 1 in 8,145,060 chance of being drawn. You have to buy a minimum of 2 lines, so that halves those odds. Most people buy a lot more than 2 lines, further reducing their odds. Then of course wins can come from as little a 3 numbers being matched. It may be a tax on stupidity, but I am sure you would not mind winning.

As for quick picks, they are as likely to win as any other. Many quick picks have won the jackpot. People say in relation to a lot of combinations things like, "That's an odd combination" when something like several numbers beside each other appear on a line, or are drawn. Any 1 of the 8,145,060 combinations are as likely to come out as any other so there is no less chance of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 coming out, than any other individual combination.

It is strange too that many of the people in this thread that are complaining about the Lotto have bought tickets. If you don't like it, then don't buy any. Do something else. Buy a scratch card. "You never win on those either" people say, which is of course not true. Turn on to RTE 1 any Saturday night after the Lotto and you'll see people winning big money, cars, holidays etc., all from having bought a scratch card.

If you want to keep away from all then National Lottery games, the do something like buy Prize Bonds. As with everything, people say "you never win anything on those", but you do. I have, often. The advantage of them is that once you buy them, they go into every draw as long as you own them. You can cash them in eventually too. Another advantage is that even if your bond is drawn out and you win, in the next draw that very same bond will be in the draw again. So you can win more than once with the same bond, and it has happened.

So if you don't want to do the Lotto, but fancy having a gamble of some sort, buy a scratch card or buy prize bonds or or have a bet on the matches at the weekend or head to the races next week or whatever. Like any gamble, the chances are you won't win, but you know that beforehand and of course there is always the chance that you will win. If you're not in, you can't win, as they say. Finally, if you do have a gamble and don't win, then don't come in here moaning about it and giving all sorts of conspiracy theories, like draws being fixed or rollovers at holidays, which just aren't true.

johnp

kleefarr wrote: »

No. Take a roulette wheel for example. Each time the ball is spun all of the numbers have an equal chance of coming up, but it doesn't mean all numbers will come up an equal amount of times.

If you played for eternity and the conditions were exactly the same on each roll (perfectly round ball, level table) each number will come up an equal number of times with a random throw.
I guess that doesn't happen in reality, coz the ball will become imperfect, the table will become wobbly(!), but I'm pretty sure the maths is correct.

skelliser

well a random number generator's output isnt exactly random

kleefarr

johnp wrote: »

If you played for eternity and the conditions were exactly the same on each roll (perfectly round ball, level table) each number will come up an equal number of times with a random throw.
I guess that doesn't happen in reality, coz the ball will become imperfect, the table will become wobbly(!), but I'm pretty sure the maths is correct.

Conditions will never be exactly the same. The balls will be in a different postion everytime the draw machine is started giving a totally different result. The same goes for a roulette wheel. It is not possible for the numbers to come up equal amounts of times for definite.

johnp

skelliser wrote: »

well a random number generator's output isnt exactly random

If you're talking about computers, then your right. Computers can only do what they're told to do. You have to tell it how to pick a random number.
In saying that sometimes my code does things that I don't think it should. Generally turns out that the computer is right

My head hurts with all this numbers talk.

RobAMerc

i think it would be quite simple for them to pick a combination thats not been picked for the few weeks before a big occasion then pick a winning combo as the winner, nothing to it.

they could also tell if theres a winner seconds after the draw - never mind the sh*te regarding waiting till the news or that to announce it.

As for the scratch cards and spin the wheel bull - there is absolutely 0 chance in them at all.

Do they ever announce the portion of wins they have per scratch cards bought ?

Tax the poor - give to the charities. pat yourself on the back.

johnp

kleefarr wrote: »

Conditions will never be exactly the same. The balls will be in a different postion everytime the draw machine is started giving a totally different result. The same goes for a roulette wheel. It is not possible for the numbers to come up equal amounts of times for definite.

True, that's the only thing that can be different. If it were put in the exact same way every time and all other conditions were exactly the same, then the same 1 number would keep coming out.

But when there is just one random event (putting the ball in), then there's an equal chance of each number coming out. Play for ever and each number will be hit an equal number of times.

Pigman II

I stood waiting an hour for a bus and then 3 came along at once

Therefore I conclude that the Dublin Bus lottery is rigged!

godtabh

faceman wrote: »

you just melted by brain with that comment!

I just melted my brain with some of the other comments here!

For all practicalities each number out of the drum and each number picked in quick picker has equal chance of happening.

Same goes for the roulette wheel.

Flukey

well a random number generator's output isnt exactly random

If you're talking about computers, then your right. Computers can only do what they're told to do. You have to tell it how to pick a random number.

That is not strictly true. There are ways of writing programs that produce truely random numbers. There are functions and commands in some programming languages that are used to generate random numbers, and they are the ones that produce the numbers that are not totally random. So you don't use them. What you can do is write a program that takes a value from the system clock at the moment you hit a key and then generate a random number off that. So that is totally down to when you randomly hit a key. If you are doing something like a quick pick, you obviously have to restrict it to 45 numbers and ensure that no number is duplicated, both of which are simple to do.

Jesus Wept

You are less likely to share the main prize with someone else if you do a quickpick. :cool:

JayoCluxton

The whole point of the thread is questioning whether or not all things are equal or indeed whether all things are as they should be! Hopefully when we get a reply to that letter to KPMG all things will be clearer.:)

My original point is that I think that the Quick Pick numbers are dodgy and I won't do them any more. I'll pick numbers based on things like the number of hangovers I had at Xmas (38), the number of people in front of me at the shop who producer a Laser card at the last minute (24), the amount of Premiership teams that end up all over the newspapers after their Xmas party (20) etc, etc.

Other than that I'm willing to take my chances same as everyone else and continue to support the many fine community based projects which are ably assisted by my peccadillo.

johnp

JayoCluxton wrote: »

The whole point of the thread is questioning whether or not all things are equal or indeed whether all things are as they should be! Hopefully when we get a reply to that letter to KPMG all things will be clearer.:)

My original point is that I think that the Quick Pick numbers are dodgy and I won't do them any more. I'll pick numbers based on things like the number of hangovers I had at Xmas (38), the number of people in front of me at the shop who producer a Laser card at the last minute (24), the amount of Premiership teams that end up all over the newspapers after their Xmas party (20) etc, etc.

Other than that I'm willing to take my chances same as everyone else and continue to support the many fine community based projects which are ably assisted by my peccadillo.

Perfectly random

cornbb

Believe what you want to Jayo, the numbers you pick based on number of hangovers etc are anything but random. No matter, you'll have precisely the same chance of winning no matter what numbers you pick. And those aren't very good either.

johnp

Flukey wrote: »

That is not strictly true. There are ways of writing programs that produce truely random numbers. There are functions and commands in some programming languages that are used to generate random numbers, and they are the ones that produce the numbers that are not totally random. So you don't use them. What you can do is write a program that takes a value from the system clock at the moment you hit a key and then generate a random number off that. So that is totally down to when you randomly hit a key. If you are doing something like a quick pick, you obviously have to restrict it to 45 numbers and ensure that no number is duplicated, both of which are simple to do.

That sounds pretty random to me. It's not quite sticking your hand into a hat an pulling out a number, but then again, how far do you have to go to be completely random!

This discussion is pointless, I've already called dibbs on the 13 million.

kleefarr

johnp wrote: »

True, that's the only thing that can be different. If it were put in the exact same way every time and all other conditions were exactly the same, then the same 1 number would keep coming out.

But when there is just one random event (putting the ball in), then there's an equal chance of each number coming out. Play for ever and each number will be hit an equal number of times.

Equal chance, yes. Equal amount of times, Impossible.

pebbles21

Also any time we are approaching a Bank Holiday or Easter or Paddys Day there is a massive rollover.

wonder if you can bet with betting sites if the jackpot is won or not???

johnp

kleefarr wrote: »

Equal chance, yes. Equal amount of times, Impossible.

OK, maybe not equal amount of times, but the % of times each number that comes out will be so close that it won't matter.

Ruu_Old

That chap from Stokes Kennedy Crowley gives the nod for the signal.

JayoCluxton

Ruu wrote: »

That chap from Stokes Kennedy Crowley gives the nod for the signal.

Thought that - dunno why the Rigger is writing to KPMG so

skelliser

Flukey wrote: »

You are wrong. There are 8,145,060 possible combinations of numbers that can be drawn. So any given line has a 1 in 8,145,060 chance of being drawn. You have to buy a minimum of 2 lines, so that halves those odds.

this is nonsense. there are 8145060 combinations. you do 2 lines in the shop. your left with 8145058 possible combinations.
your odds do not half because you do 2 lines!. by that reckoning if i do ~20 lines i should win

TripleAce

Lotto is just for people who are VERY bad at maths and don't know what the odds are.

People get impressed by huge prizes, but are VERY small in proportions of the mathematical chances to get the numbers right.

Also you can pick ANY number and you will have the exact same probability for it to come out...ie. if you pick 7-12-23-30-34-42 you DON'T have better chances to win than if you pick 1-2-3-4-5-6

People just don't seem to get this...I don't have the mathematical probability handy for the lotto, but in terms of fairness in the payout, the most fair game is the roulette, where you have almost 48% (black vs red) of victory for an even paid prize. The edge against you is given by the number 0 (zero).

Lotto? Waste of money.