Is the Lotto above board?

Jesus Wept

JayoCluxton wrote: »

Thought that - dunno why the Rigger is writing to KPMG so

Because I'm old school and it used to be KPMG, back when what's his name was presenting it, the middle aged guy, does radio too, or used too at least.

*shrug.

ScumLord

TripleAce wrote: »

Lotto is just for people who are VERY bad at maths and don't know what the odds are.

People get impressed by huge prizes, but are VERY small in proportions of the mathematical chances to get the numbers right.

Yeah but, what if you win?

cornbb

ScumLord wrote: »

Yeah but, what if you win?

If you win you are lucky. You are far more likely to lose money.

patrickc

The-Rigger wrote: »

Because I'm old school and it used to be KPMG, back when what's his name was presenting it, the middle aged guy, does radio too, or used too at least.

*shrug.

ronan collins rigg is it?

jameshayes

if there are 40000 active users on boards, and we made a syndicate at 1.50 each that would give us 40000 lines.

I think that could give us a good shoe in at a big prize...

RoyalMarine

kearnsr wrote: »

Each number has an equal chance of big pulled. THey arent weighted in any way. If the draw was to happen to till the end of time each number would come out an equal amount of times (i think).

Lotto Frequency Table
Check out how often each number has been drawn in the Lotto 6/45 Saturday and Wednesday draws (including
Bonus number).

Percentages:

1=18.3% 2=17.2% 3=17.1% 4=17.8%
5=15.9% 6=16.3% 7=16.3% 8=15.1%
9=18.4% 10=17.1% 11=18.6% 12=16.1%
13=17.7% 14=18.9% 15=16.7% 16=17.2%
17=14.9% 18=17.7% 19=15.9% 20=16.8%
21=17.3% 22=16.2% 23=16.1% 24=16.7%
25=15.7% 26=14.4% 27=15.6% 28=17.1%
29=14.6% 30=15.6% 31=16% 32=18.3%
33=14.2% 34=17.1% 35=15.8% 36=16.8%
37=16% 38=15.9% 39=16.8% 40=15.6%
41=16.6% 42=15.8% 43=14.4% 44=18.6%
45=10.1%


* NOTE: The numbers 43, 44 and 45 were introduced on the 28th October, 2006
Totals:

1=257 2=241 3=239 4=250 5=223
6=228 7=228 8=211 9=258 10=239
11=261 12=226 13=248 14=265 15=234
16=241 17=209 18=248 19=223 20=236
21=242 22=227 23=226 24=234 25=220
26=202 27=218 28=239 29=205 30=219
31=224 32=257 33=199 34=240 35=221
36=235 37=224 38=223 39=235 40=219
41=233 42=221 43=17 44=22 45=12

skelliser

jameshayes wrote: »

if there are 40000 active users on boards, and we made a syndicate at 1.50 each that would give us 40000 lines.

I think that could give us a good shoe in at a big prize...

so if we got 100 users and spent 600euro each we would get the eqivalent of 40000 lines, now whos game?

average jackpot is 2 million and we won that would give us a cool 20 grand each!

lets roll!

ScumLord

skelliser wrote: »

so if we got 100 users and spent 600euro each we would get the eqivalent of 40000 lines, now whos game?

average jackpot is 2 million and we won that would give us a cool 20 grand each!

lets roll!

We're sure to win! :cool:

Flukey

skelliser wrote: »

this is nonsense. there are 8145060 combinations. you do 2 lines in the shop. your left with 8145058 possible combinations.
your odds do not half because you do 2 lines!. by that reckoning if i do ~20 lines i should win

It doesn't half every time you add a line, so you are wrong. That is not what I said. If you do 2 lines, you'll have 2 in 8,145,060 or 1 in 4,072,530 chances of winning. If you did 20 lines, you'd have 20 in 8,145,060 or 1 in 407,253.

Wertz

On the point of rollovers, anyone who's been doing the lottery for a few years will have doubtlessly noticed the strange effect that public holidays like easter, Patrick's day, xmas, june BH w/e and whatever seem to have on the draws in the weeks running up to that date. It's past the point of cooincidence to the stage where you have to think that someone is tampering somehow with the machine/balls/broadcast.... I don't really care how many adjudicators are present, something to me is amiss.
It would be interesting to see hard data on rollovers cooinciding with BH w/es or public holidays over the last decade or so....but I really don't think it's our imaginations (I'm certtainly not the only one who's ever noticed this convenient trend)

BTW to those people talking about tax on the mathematically challenged, etc, go and find another cliché; that's getting almost as bad as the one about cocaine and it being god's way of telling you you've too much money....neither statement is original or funny any more no matter how true they may be...

Capt'n Midnight

The lotto is fair in the sense that each player has the same chance, as long as they don't pick popular numbers.

This is because they are creaming so much off the top and the govt is saving so much money on spending that they won't kill the golden goose.

In the UK they go to extreme lengths like using thicker ink on some numbers so all the balls weigh the same.

yes it's a tax on optimism / hope / dreams

Pythia

skelliser wrote: »

this is nonsense. there are 8145060 combinations. you do 2 lines in the shop. your left with 8145058 possible combinations.
your odds do not half because you do 2 lines!. by that reckoning if i do ~20 lines i should win

Agh, no.

You have a 1/8145060 if you pick only one line (if you were allowed). With two lines, you have a 2/8145060 chance. That number is double the other, therefore the odds are halved.

I specialised in Financial Maths in my degree yet I still play the Lotto sometimes. You can work out all the stats you want, but the fact is, people get utility from the thrill of the game. You cannot mathematicially map people's behaviour. Yes, there is a negative expected value in this game, but the idea of such a huge win, however small the chance, has a big allure.

Steven

faceman wrote: »

Ultimately the chances of winning are minute but as a statistician once told me, "someone has to win".

Well, no one has to win.

It's technically possible for the lotto to continue forever without being won again.

Capt'n Midnight

Steven wrote: »

Well, no one has to win.

It's technically possible for the lotto to continue forever without being won again.

not forever.
for a long time yes but not forever.

Karoma

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

not forever.
for a long time yes but not forever.

PEDANTS?! IN MY VAGINA BOARDZ?!

mikemac

ejmaztec wrote: »

If I ever joined a jackpot-winning syndicate, you can bet your life that the one holding the ticket would feck off with all the money, never to be seen again. Some of us are born losers:(

It takes a few days to get the money together, well it does for Euromillions anyway.
So all you do is camp outside HQ on Abbey St.
Hell, tell the media and they'll do it for you

The Hacker

Flukey wrote: »

so that halves those odds.

It doesn't half every time you add a line

Which is it charlie?

is_that_so

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

yes it's a tax on optimism / hope / dreams

Always thought taxes were thing you had no choice in.
At its very worst it deludes people into thinking that there is a quick buck fix to all life's ills.

Fighting Irish

Euromillions >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Irish Lotto

witchywoman

have ye all not noticed that when its a bank hol, easter, xmas etc its never won and always rolls over? of course its a fix!! the shower who run it should be ashamed of themselves.

Fighting Irish

witchywoman wrote: »

have ye all not noticed that when its a bank hol, easter, xmas etc its never won and always rolls over? of course its a fix!! the shower who run it should be ashamed of themselves.

:rolleyes:

The media always reminds us that the jackpot is big when its near, bh, xmas etc

When the jackpot is big at most other times during the year it isn't in the papers/news as much

Jesus Wept

patrickc wrote: »

ronan collins rigg is it?

Aye that's him brother!

Wertz

Fighting Irish wrote: »

:rolleyes:

The media always reminds us that the jackpot is big when its near, bh, xmas etc

When the jackpot is big at most other times during the year it isn't in the papers/news as much

Interesting to note then that the last big win (the biggest to date) was a 16m jackpot by some cork family; an august BH w/e jackpot that had been rolling over for some 6 1/2weeks from around the 20th of June. Between the June bank holiday and the 20th there was only one winner (4m)...the jackpot for the June BH w/e was won (3m)....prior to that you go back close to Mayday for a large rollover/winner combo.....I can't be arsed digging further back through dates on the lotto website but like I said previously it's more than a cooincidence and certainly more than extra media attention at times of public holidays; the lotto goes near €4-4.5m and you can guarantee at least TV3 will have a full news crew on location someplace to interview would-be winners...not necessarily always around BH's but mostly. Mostly.

JayoCluxton

Amazing - such digression from the OP! (I've been banned for less!:)

All I said was - check it out - that I thought the Quick Picks were dodgy.

All of a sudden (well after 11 hours) the thread has been hijacked by mathematicians, statisticians, Masters holders and all manner of scientific boffins - and Ireland still doesn't have any nuclear capability - shucks!

To those who suggest that lotto players are short on math (US version) intellect, I can just imagine Dolores McNamara crying into her rice krispies and Beluga and bemoaning her NG in Inter Cert maths!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Rb

The Irish lotto is rigged in favour of everyone outside Dublin.

I've no proof of this so don't ask for it.

Tinytony

The-Rigger wrote: »

Because I'm old school and it used to be KPMG, back when what's his name was presenting it, the middle aged guy, does radio too, or used too at least.

*shrug.

No your right, it used to be Stokes Kennedy Crowley. They in turn became KPMG.

And I think Alex Burns was the name of the lad who used to just not and smile?

Wertz

@rb_ie
G'wan out of that....everytime I hear a mediocre sized jackpot being won or split it's almost always Dublin. In fairness the countryside always seem to scoop the big ones...

Rb

Wertz wrote: »

In fairness the countryside always seem to scoop the big ones...

Exactly!!A co-incidence?I think not!

Wertz

Hey now, who can really help it if those 6 numbers just happen to be the b'days of the 6 fresians in the lower field? Those city folk don't need all that money anyhow....it'd be much better spent on a new lamborghini...

Hagar

Pythia wrote: »

Agh, no.

You have a 1/8145060 if you pick only one line (if you were allowed). With two lines, you have a 2/8145060 chance. That number is double the other, therefore the odds are halved

I can see what you're saying but odds of 2/8145060 are not equal to 1/4122530 in reality.

If you buy 1 line you have 1 possible winning combination and 8145059 losing combinations.
If you buy 2 lines you have 2 possible winning combinations and 8145058 losing combinations.

You may have doubled your chances of winning but you have not halved your chances of losing. Far from it.

cornbb

JayoCluxton wrote: »

To those who suggest that lotto players are short on math (US version) intellect, I can just imagine Dolores McNamara crying into her rice krispies and Beluga and bemoaning her NG in Inter Cert maths!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

For every Dolores McNamara there are tens/hundreds of thousands of people who lose out financially over long periods. I used to work in a newsagent, people would buy a scratchcard, scratch it, and keep spending and spending, sometimes up to 50 euros in the space of 5 minutes. Any money won would go straight back into buying more of them. Some people were actually profoundly stupid enough to believe that if they won 30 euros after spending 50 they were somehow up!

The point is that the odds are stacked against you. I can see the attraction of the thrill of the lotto but its a game, the chances of walking away with an 8-figure sum are tiny.

Flukey

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flukey
so that halves those odds.

Quote:
It doesn't half every time you add a line
Which is it charlie?

Both. Buying the second line halves the odds of having one line, but buying a third line won't halve them again. Oh, and my name isn't Charlie!

Pythia

Hagar wrote: »

I can see what you're saying but odds of 2/8145060 are not equal to 1/4122530 in reality.

If you buy 1 line you have 1 possible winning combination and 8145059 losing combinations.
If you buy 2 lines you have 2 possible winning combinations and 8145058 losing combinations.

You may have doubled your chances of winning but you have not halved your chances of losing. Far from it.

Yes, and 8145058/8145060 = 4122529/4122530. So the probably of winning with two lines is 1/4122530 and losing is (1 - prob of winning) which is 4122529/4122530. So the odds of winning are halved and prob of winning has doubled.

skelliser

the odds of you winning are NOT halved by goin from one too two lines, all that has happened is you have doubled your chances of winning. You are confusing odds and chances of winning.

Pythia

Odds are p(x)/1-p(x) aka p(winning)/p(losing).

Odds for one line are 1:8145059 (or 0.00000012277381907240)
Odds for two lines are 1:4072529
Odds for four lines are 1:2036264.

As you double your lines, your odds decreae by approx .5 (0.499999939 for the first, 0.499999877 for the second).

Pj!

The lotto is for the statistically challenged.

Cianos

The lotto is obviously overall negative expected value but at the same time if you think your life will be many times better from winning, then that has tonnes of value outside what is calculable as the pure odds of the draw. On top of that you can use the capital for investing, with interest and so on. Not to mention the other ways in which you could use the money as you would see fit, such as donating to charities, securing the future of your family and their families. So while the odds are definitely stacked against you, there are other ways in which some of that loss of value can be made up for.

OPENROAD

According to Artel 1 winner from the West

zuutroy

Just skimmed through this thread...LOL is all I have to say....

testicle

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

not forever.
for a long time yes but not forever.

Please explain...

l3LoWnA

OPENROAD wrote: »

According to Artel 1 winner from the West

Yep

That would be me!! That's why I'm sitting at home alone, drinking tea and browsing the net! :rolleyes: I wish, don't think I even got more than one number! Although I'm in a syndicate aswell.... hmmm....

aidan24326

Originally Posted by Capt'n Midnight
not forever.
for a long time yes but not forever.

testicle wrote: »

Please explain...

If 'forever' is taken to be infinite time, then in an eternal forever anything that can happen will happen. So yes it's a certainty that it would be won eventually, assuming people were still playing it of course. Even with just one person doing it every week, it's still a certainty that it would be won eventually. It might take a very long time, but forever is all the time you need.

Jesus Wept

aidan24326 wrote: »

Originally Posted by Capt'n Midnight
not forever.
for a long time yes but not forever.



If 'forever' is taken to be infinite time, then in an eternal forever anything that can happen will happen. So yes it's a certainty that it would be won eventually, assuming people were still playing it of course. Even with just one person doing it every week, it's still a certainty that it would be won eventually. It might take a very long time, but forever is all the time you need.

Please provide some evidence and prior examples of this occurring.
Thank you.

aidan24326

The-Rigger wrote: »

Please provide some evidence and prior examples of this occurring.
Thank you.

No prob. If only I could get this time machine working.

But seriously I just meant if someone could keep playing the lottery forever then the chances of them winning become a certainty as you remove all time constraints. Obviously I didn't mean anything as in anything at all, only anything that is possible. We'd be assuming there were still people around and still playing the lottery.

Jesus Wept

aidan24326 wrote: »

No prob. If only I could get this time machine working.

But seriously I just meant if someone could keep playing the lottery forever then the chances of them winning become a certainty as you remove all time constraints. Obviously I didn't mean anything as in anything at all, only anything that is possible. We'd be assuming there were still people around and still playing the lottery.

You could give me 40millon quickpicks and I'd manage to miss.

Rb

Tonight proves the lotto is just about as rigged as it could be.

Let's just hope the winner is someone who can actually speak properly for a change.

nesf

Pythia wrote: »

Odds are p(x)/1-p(x) aka p(winning)/p(losing).

Odds for one line are 1:8145059 (or 0.00000012277381907240)
Odds for two lines are 1:4072529
Odds for four lines are 1:2036264.

As you double your lines, your odds decreae by approx .5 (0.499999939 for the first, 0.499999877 for the second).

Your logic and fancy "to twenty decimal places" numbers are not welcome here.

Jesus Wept

Yes.

I hope it's not some stupid old tard who says

'Oh I'm not quitting me <insert average dull job> job'

'Oh I'll keep driving the 8 year old lada for the time being, might take a holiday.'

aidan24326

The-Rigger wrote: »

Yes.

I hope it's not some stupid old tard who says

'Oh I'm not quitting me <insert average dull job> job'

'Oh I'll keep driving the 8 year old lada for the time being, might take a holiday.'

So annoying when those types win it. 'I'll just bury it in a hole in the field and carry on working as a postman/office junior/tractor mechanic'.

Why bother doing the bloody thing at all if you're not going to make the most of it when you win it?

Caliden

Everyweek, every number has the same chance of coming out but statistics has a chance to play.
Thank god I paid attention in maths class which saved me money from there-on!
Chances of winning are 130691232.
Decreasing by 1 everytime a lotto happens, have fun:D