Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

Villain

Oh dear oh dear, the models are going the wrong way, we could lose any hope if the 18z follows the 12z

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 12z GFS, is an astonishing downgrade.

Never have i seen such macro changes in such a short timeframe.

the -5c line is around 500 miles further north, we are in a mild southerly
rather than a cold easterly.

Indeed there would be just one day of cool temps if this were to come to pass.

Amazing

I wouldnt worry about it.
Remember the UKMO will have seen that befor eyou did.
Also the GFS was last to latch onto what we are about to have and has been wholy inconsistant in my view over the last few days in handling the specefics.
Why should they be more accurate now all of a sudden?
Answer is,they aint.

Snowbie

I started this thread yesterday with a huge upgrade to the 12z GFS and todays is the exact opposite.Over the last week i have seen so unusal charts regarding this cold spell and one thing is for sure is that the models have an inconsistancy in placing our HP, lets say NE europe.

Positioning of it will determine our weather here so far away from the centre of the HP.But we all know that anyway but my point being the models cant seem to be handling the position of the HP even within 48hrs of the event.The slightest deviation of our block can make the difference to the weather here.50 miles N or 50 miles S is just enough for it to track slightly milder rather than colder over us and vica versa.

Conclusion to all this is there aint no conclusion as the distance to HP is a guess from the models for here.A little bit towards scandi and more confidence in the models.How close will the LP come? again on how much the block shifts it further south or the block relents and the LP will be more towards us?

This is going to be a nowcast event.It can still go either way.
The NE of UK will likely do well from this but even then they are as just as marginal like here.

Ryanoneill2006

trogdor wrote: »

WRF's take on Thursday
Charts copyright meteoblue

Hey Trogdor,

Your literally down the road from me, we always seem to do really bad with snow as we're right on the coast. Do you hold out much hope of seeing anything significant here over the next few days or will it be the usual cold rain with the mountains getting pasted!!!

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

This is going to be a nowcast event.It can still go either way.
The NE of UK will likely do well from this but even then they are as just as marginal like here.

Exactly.
My last few posts for that very reason are given with a grain of salt because the slightest move and things change.
A change could be small or significant.

In short:

Will it be cold enough to snow? Answer probably yes

Will it snow and where? Undefinable-the precip I spoke of earlier could stay way south ironically giving snow to the Hills of Tipperary and west cork from an Easterly's affect whilst the East stays dry or with the odd flurry.

Should we be worrying about todays GFS runs? No because it looks like the UK met office are ignoring them-They do that for good reason.

Yay WC \o/ you are doing all the work for me in the other place

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=44263&view=findpost&p=1150559

I told you the UKMO wasn't for flinching and hence the bullish attitude for snow in their forecasts today.
I expect ECM tonight to be similar.

If you read the NWS scientific discussion as often as I do - you get a feel for how they make up their mind on forecasts and its forecasts that matter not individual model runs.
I'm firmly of the view that they are largely ignoring GFS in the make up of their forecast from now to Friday due to its lack of consistancy.

I havent looked into this in detail but I'd hazzard a guess that in their analysis it's predicted versus actual in other parts of the world and not just here or the U.S must be bad at the moment still for whatever reason.
That happens to all the 3 big models at various times.

They could also be largely ignoring it because of its bias towards the atlantic maratime weather it will always try to find for NW Europe.

ninebeanrows

UKM Early doors Thursday @ 7am

Snow/ Rain ?? You decide.





@ Midday, chilly, 1-3c brrrrrrrrrrr

Definitely snow WC.

the question you should have asked was will it settle -you decide

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

Definitely snow WC.

the question you should have asked was will it settle -you decide

The question for me is will it make it! Probably just sit 5/10 miles to my south and i will become a jealous wreck:D

That UKMO is very 80's like-it's giving an ICE day over the area exactly which the air in Ireland is being sourced ie the UK midlands and Wales.

The strength of the wind is key! stronger=less modification.

arctictree

So the question is - who do you believe - the GFS 12z or the UKMO 12z !

The next run of both will be very interesting!

Trogdor

Ryanoneill2006 wrote: »

Hey Trogdor,

Your literally down the road from me, we always seem to do really bad with snow as we're right on the coast. Do you hold out much hope of seeing anything significant here over the next few days or will it be the usual cold rain with the mountains getting pasted!!!

I think that snow falling is quite possible even here on the coast, it really depends on whether we get any precipitation. I would have expected a few showers coming off the sea but that will be a case of hit and miss. Things are still very uncertain even as it starts to get very close. If the band of frontal snow can reach this far North then there could be something more substantial but it's really knife edge, could be wet snow/sleet here and settling snow a few miles inland, or nothing here and snow further down into Wicklow. The mountains could get plastered as they're slightly further South while we get nothing.
Incidentally, I might be heading up into the mountains for the next few days...last minute decision tomorrow:p.

Wow, 12z ensembles...not good, i was hoping the op was a mild outlier. Yesterdays had a few runs touching -10C!
12z

darkman2

In terms of the macro details Id certainly take the UKMO at this stage over the GFS. Im not expecting much from this at all. Maybe a few sleety flurries but nothing persistent. Indeed those of you hoping for snow might be best just looking at Irish met forcasts - I agree the most opportune time looks like being Thursday night with sub zero temps and a few showers of the Irish sea.


There is definately a chance on Thrusday but no more then a minimal chance I would think. Anyhow milder over the weekend.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-1-2-42.png?12

Kippure

trogdor wrote: »

I think that snow falling is quite possible even here on the coast, it really depends on whether we get any precipitation. I would have expected a few showers coming off the sea but that will be a case of hit and miss. Things are still very uncertain even as it starts to get very close. If the band of frontal snow can reach this far North then there could be something more substantial but it's really knife edge, could be wet snow/sleet here and settling snow a few miles inland, or nothing here and snow further down into Wicklow. The mountains could get plastered as they're slightly further South while we get nothing.
Incidentally, I might be heading up into the mountains for the next few days...last minute decision tomorrow:p.

Wow, 12z ensembles...not good, i was hoping the op was a mild outlier. Yesterdays had a few runs touching -10C!
12z

Head to kippure mountain saturday morning, garranteed blizzard at the top as the milder air clashes with the cold .

I know thats where ill be .

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

So the question is - who do you believe - the GFS 12z or the UKMO 12z !

The next run of both will be very interesting!

No zero marks for posing that question as I've already answered it
I wouldn't rely on the GFS as its proving unreliable elsewhere.
It is an american focussed model that is even being dissed quite often over there at the moment.
I'd have low confidence in a model that is displaying a lack of consistency in it's detail.
3 times in a row now I've seen UKMO and the ECMWF solid on where the precip is going to be and what it's likely to be.

Kippure you'll have to be early saturday on Kippure mt (as by lunchtime saturday even up there it should be rain) and be prepared for awfull visibility in the snow-oh and be carefull

trogdor

trogdor wrote: »

I think that snow falling is quite possible even here on the coast, it really depends on whether we get any precipitation. I would have expected a few showers coming off the sea but that will be a case of hit and miss.

Unfortunately high level cloud from the front further south will scupper any shower activity in the Irish sea and if the UKMO is performing well and I think it is,there will be few in the way of irish sea showers

Things are still very uncertain even as it starts to get very close. If the band of frontal snow can reach this far North then there could be something more substantial but it's really knife edge, could be wet snow/sleet here and settling snow a few miles inland, or nothing here and snow further down into Wicklow.

I'm thinking the latter verging on the front even being slightly south of me.
20% chance but still a decent chance of it going further north of the UKMO track.

The mountains could get plastered as they're slightly further South while we get nothing.
Incidentally, I might be heading up into the mountains for the next few days...last minute decision tomorrow:p.

From about mid wicklow southwards depending on the track of thursdays front.

Wow, 12z ensembles...not good, i was hoping the op was a mild outlier. Yesterdays had a few runs touching -10C!
12z

What did I say about the GFS at the moment...?
Bin it tbh and look at the other two and the TV forecasts (especially the beeb) as they are more reliable imho

arctictree

No mention of the front by Gerry Murphy at the 18:30, just showers off the Irish Sea on Thursday. I suppose its too marginal at this stage....

A

Gerry murphy LoL
I've even less confidence in his forecasts than I do currently in the GFS.
He's rarely right when it comes to snow potential.

It's not marginal for you artictree if the precip gets to you.
The question is will it?

maquiladora

How does it look for Waterford, too mild along the coast? Probably a better chance a little further north around Kilkenny would you say?

maquiladora

MET update :

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY : Very cold. Strong and very chilling east to northeast winds. Dry in most places. Scattered wintry showers, mainly near the east and south coasts. THURSDAY NIGHT : Remaining very cold. Winds easing a good deal. Widespread frost, severe in places. Dry in most areas - but continuing risk of wintry showers. Some falls of snow possible, mainly in Ulster and north Leinster. FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT : Continuing very cold at first - but generally dry, any remaining wintry showers soon dying out. Milder weather spreading from the Atlantic during the day and after dark, with frost and any lying snow clearing again, and with rain and strengthening southerly winds.

Trogdor

Front comes up on Thursday night on the faxes
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif
[ramp]Also, with the models so uncertain now, surely they can't be sure that Saturdays low won't try to undercut as well. [/ramp]:D

arctictree

trogdor wrote: »

Front comes up on Thursday night on the faxes
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif
[ramp]Also, with the models so uncertain now, surely they can't be sure that Saturdays low won't try to undercut as well. [/ramp]:D

LOL - wouldn't it be just our luck to just miss the front on Wednesday night from the south and then to just miss the front from the North on Thursday night!!

A

trogdor

trogdor wrote: »

Front comes up on Thursday night on the faxes
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif
[ramp]Also, with the models so uncertain now, surely they can't be sure that Saturdays low won't try to undercut as well. [/ramp]:D

The front comes up alright according to that but the precipitation dies as it heads north.
How far north the precipitation goes is what we want to watch out for.
You could have a triple whammy of no showers and missing both fronts

@ maquiladora-I wouldnt completely rule out snow for you.I just wouldnt be as prepared to be as confident as I am further north or inland of your location.
Certainly the high ground west of Dungarvan should see snow for a time.

By the way in addition to my comment on that fax have you noticed how completely different it is to what was forecasted on country file and by Eveyln on Sunday.
The cold trough that was to come into the Belfast area is now heading west to the north of the north coast and not coming in at all to there-whereas this first front was initially progged to stay down over munster before sliding off to the south.

Thats one big change and it has implications as mentioned already.

The other thing I've noticed is that dewpoints are already falling much faster than temperature.
Dewpoints at least down this way as the wind has swung SE have dropped 3c or more where as air temp has stayed the same and we are only starting to get a slight continental influence down here in the air flow.

We absolutely have to have negative dewpoints on thursday or else what falls at sea level even at the leading edge of that front will be rain/sleet.
I suspect as the air source by thursday will be over an icy Midland UK and originally from Poland and Denmark,that the dp's will be sub zero.
They've only to be 5c lower than now and given that the dewpoints are already dropping at a rate of knotts faster than the air temp and that the air temp is likely to be at least 5 c lower than now by thursday-then I think we will be in business (If that precip comes up!)

Villain

Gerry Murphy 9 o clock news:

Very Cold Thursday, Very cold day Thursday, mostly dry with rain in the far south, Snow on High ground Thursday night Friday morning with sleet on lower ground.

Then mild and wet weather comes in Friday evening.

Hard to see them getting it wrong this far out, so head for high ground early Friday!

I see Tristrame is optimistic on TWO that he will see wet snow in Arklow, seems to have gone AWOL here, he was always good a forecast when snow/cold was due.

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Gerry Murphy 9 o clock news:



Hard to see them getting it wrong this far out, so head for high ground early Friday!

I see Tristrame is optimistic on TWO that he will see wet snow in Arklow, seems to have gone AWOL here, he was always good a forecast when snow/cold was due.

Well by golly it looks wrong!

Rain may affect the south coast on Thursday?

Sleet showers will feed into the east on Friday.

Both of these are not going to happen.

There will be little if any shower activity and the front will move alot further North!!

Villain

Let us know what you think of the 18z rolling out.

ninebeanrows

Another poor GFS run, very worrying really.

We might not even see a decent lot of cold, maybe not even a frost or snow flurry at this rate.:rolleyes:

Villain

Well we may just hope the GFS has lost its bearings so, although I think Gerry Murphy might not be far off at this stage.

What about FI any sign of a decent cold spell?

ninebeanrows

Haha I have been banned from Netweather for posting "Rubbish" on the Model Output forum.

So i shall be spending my posting time on here for the cold snap! Lucky youse