Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

Agreed and so much for me not commenting on hypotheticals which basically all this is really.

There seems to be a trend in the 00z qand 06z to source the air over Ireland from poland as opposed to France.
follow the lines and you still end up in the med but it's better than earlier (hypothetically of course).

This is not an 80's spell thats being progged when the ultimate source is the med.
It would be at a push to deliver cold.
Look at any of the decent 1980's snowy charts and I can almost guarantee you that if you follow the lines you will end up in or near Moscow not the Sudan

darkman2

Im very happy with the charts this morning. The fact is that by Wednesday it will be getting much colder. GFS progging Thursday maxes of 1 - 2 degrees with sub -5 850s and some fronts scattered about. Friday still very cold. Saturday we see the breakdown. Latest fax chart this morning is good for us aswell.



We are actually for once actually in a better posistion then Southern England to actually see snow out of this. I would not right this off by any means.

ninebeanrows

Amid the debate, there is too much pessimism.

A forecast for 5 days away, next Wednesday shows this

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>

This chart is what we search for winter after winter, and at the moment it's looking very likely

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Im very happy with the charts this morning. The fact is that by Wednesday it will be getting much colder. GFS progging Thursday maxes of 1 - 2 degrees with sub -5 850s and some fronts scattered about. Friday still very cold. Saturday we see the breakdown. Latest fax chart this morning is good for us aswell.



We are actually for once actually in a better posistion then Southern England to actually see snow out of this. I would not right this off by any means.

It might be 1 or 2 c in parts of the UK but not in Ireland unless the UK goes to ice days-That needs a minimum of 4 days of this flow and for everything to be right.
I don't like the potential for mixing,it may happen too soon to the air heading our way so we end up with 3's and 4's instead of 1's and 2's.
You can add at least 2c onto the temps for the UK after the Irish sea has modified the air a bit.

At any rate I suppose it's no harm to be a bit optimistic and hopefull.
It's hard to know yet what will happen as there are so many tweaks in this output to come before we have an actual.

Tardis please

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

It might be 1 or 2 c in parts of the UK but not in Ireland unless the UK goes to ice days-That needs a minimum of 4 days of this flow and for everything to be right.
I don't like the potential for mixing,it may happen too soon to the air heading our way so we end up with 3's and 4's instead of 1's and 2's.
You can add at least 2c onto the temps for the UK after the Irish sea has modified the air a bit.

At any rate I suppose it's no harm to be a bit optimistic and hopefull.
It's hard to know yet what will happen as there are so many tweaks in this output to come before we have an actual.

Tardis please

lol have you looked at the predicted GFS maxes for Thursday?

Anyway 12z rolling out now - make or break?

Villain

Why is it WC those charts are always in FI, well at least for the last 2 or 3 years that I have been watching them here.

maquiladora

No downgrade with the 12Z....

It's getting closer, keep those fingers crossed.

Supercell

Indeed , just look at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

I don't ever recall seeing a beast quite like it, I really am struggling to believe a setup like that is possible.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

lol have you looked at the predicted GFS maxes for Thursday?

A little late but I saw them showing a 7c difference between Dublin and Athlone in a gale force Easterly which is highly suspect so I don't really like them at anything beyond 48hrs.

Anyway 12z rolling out now - make or break?

It's certainly giving some of our friends across the water a bit of a fright with +5c 850 air advected up from the med.
I could have told them that would happen.
If you are a car and you follow the N7,you will eventually get to limerick.
Likewise the isobars have been very conststant on all models showing the unwelcome mixing of warm 850 air aloft when following the isobars to their start.

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

Indeed , just look at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

I don't ever recall seeing a beast quite like it, I really am struggling to believe a setup like that is possible.

The centre of that high and most of the next ring actually isn't in scandinavia and that is a problem.

Villain

12z looks a downgrade for the UK but we still look to be in a chance of something, the ppn will be there its just whether it gets cold enough to make it fall as snow, remember earlier this year when we missed out by 1 or 2 degree's?

ninebeanrows

There are tears being shed on netweather because of the UKMO 120 hour chart..

I just laugh, looking good for us and probably them too but when things are expected to turn cold and interesting, people go abit mad!

Supercell

That chart shows southerly winds here WC, I'd expect temps of about 6°C here and any precip to be of rain if it works out like that.

There is massive potential there, going to be swings and roundabouts to this for the next few days.

The problem WC is that source in the UKMO for Ireland is portugal and up through France with no influence from Russian air at all.
How in goodness is that going to deliver.That type of source will keep dew points positive because at no time has it received a feed from the East.

On that UKMO,the super cool air is diverted to the Faroe island and to the west of Norway.

arctictree

The latest ECM has come more in line with the GFS showing the LP in the same location on Thursday at midday:



It doesn't seem as strong though as the GFS and I'm not sure how much precip would result. After that, it breaks down to a westerly sooner than the GFS.

Aside: The RTE weather at 6pm had max temps on Thursday at 5c

Tomorrow, we should have a much better idea on whether this cold spell will arrive. The farming forecast is usually quite accurate to the end of the week.

A

You should see snow out of that at 800ft above sea level artic tree if its eventually what actually pans out.
I'm thinking it will be sloppy stuff though but at least it will be snow.

Down here at sea level-forget it!

That said ,I aint calling the fat lady with her song charts untill I see the runs on tuesday going as bad as that one.

I know it's nice to have an easterly of sorts but it doesnt have enough of a cold pool to feed on and it's actually sourced in the med.

By the way I disagree with you regarding the farming forecast.It's often very wrong regarding thursday/friday and vague enough when dealing with charts like these.
It's pretty accurate when dealing with the usual south westerlies alright.
It also depends a lot on who is doing it.
I've no confidence in Gerry Murphy's forecasts for instance.I turn them off.

Whereas if it's the Eagle,Gerry Flemming (the winking man) or the lovely Evelyn Cusack doing it,I'll sit up and listen

Suffice to say I hope Gerry murphy isn't doing tomorrows.

Snowbie

Ok,an ideal snow situation looking at arctictree's chart would have that LP south of us to track up through the UK and the HP over scandi/siberia to retrogress westwards.

This would steer in ENE winds(with tight pressure gradiant) and depending where the LP stalls over the UK,a NNE wind.
What you would have is a easterly wind as indicated on the chart but bad source=higher DPs as winds originated down south,wet snow mainly for higher elevations.

Now if the LP tracks over the UK and allows a polar continental airmass mainly from a scandanavian origin,DP's be much lower aided by the origin of the air and the scottish highlands.This is a quick snow event ie:the air is chilled from a cool east and then super cooled and dried from the NE.( No need for a continuous easterly for 3-4 days to cool things down)Lapse rates steepen due to the location of the LP,Irish sea SST's,lots of moisture wrapped around LP from its origin and OH MY a blizzard snow heaven.

Just 2 little steps from that chart and i'd start to ramp if it where T48.

Agreed snowbie

Nice quick analysis of armageddon tonight on NW.

The tales I've heard of here in 1947 from older people are of a year of a january 82 snow event that was just rinsed and repeated over and over with short breaks.

I've heard similar but not as extreme of '63.

Snowbie

lol,i see myself and Black Briar are on the same wavelength.
Havin we seen this happen before from years pass in these charts.

As for Gerry Flemming,when he calls for snow it happens.Hope its his shift.
Gerry Murphy,bless.

Gonzo

After going thru the past 7 years of non-events* (year 2000 worked) and non events* in my area from 1992 tilll 1999 im gonna remain very cautious on this. Not expecting much out of this, the downgrades usually always win even up to 24 hours beforehand.

What im expecting is rain for much of Dublin and eastern areas including were I live, with the exception of high ground Wicklow will see snow, as will some of Northern Ireland and maybe one or 2 lucky zones in the midlands. England could get plastered as usuall. To avoid yet another yearly bitter dissapointment ive decided to remain negative on this one. My negative thoughts are based on year after year of non events and buildups to be greeted by bitter dissapointments.

* a non event in my book is snow inch or below lasting less than 24 hours and including falls of just sleet and rain.

I hope im wrong tho, I as much as anyone want to go lamppost watching, throwing buckets of ice on the pavement to watch it freeze like magic and see inchs of snow on the ground to last days. All this I took for granted back in the 80s as it worked like clockwork every winter. I really hope this is the winter that the never ending cycle of mild wet muck is finally broken. fingers crossed.

darkman2

Its going to be very close. As long as we are in the sub -5 air most would see snow - Im certain of that. ATM the 18z shows it just a few miles too far North for the East Coast. Southeast and South. The rest of the country looks good for a snow event right now though. If we see the -5 line further south that would be great:

This is bloody close though - knife edge




Maxes for Thursday




http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=52239

darkman2

ECM has something similar.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-120.GIF?29-0

maquiladora

Tense times....will she, won't she...

We might see a couple of worrying runs but there's still time for upgrades.

Even if it doesn't come off quite as well as hoped, it is encouraging to see this kind of activity so early.

repr

I dont think it will be cold enough for any snow apart from the highest hills these eastlery are rubbish only gives sleet and rain at coasts.

What u reckon?

And anyway I not an expert on readin charts but I think as a newbie I can see this will last only 1 -2 days I think then it get mild again hardly worth gettin excited about.

We need a northerly north westerly lol that always bring the snow drifts.

Snowbie

repr wrote: »

I dont think it will be cold enough for any snow apart from the highest hills these eastlery are rubbish only gives sleet and rain at coasts.

What u reckon?

Its all to do with source i'm afraid.
Returning continental maritime air in an easterly flow (med sourced)
Direct continental feed in an easterly(siberian sourced)
or a returning polar maritime easterly (Scandinavian or Faroe islands HP)

Top not good for snow,bottom two,chances are increased.
Also welcome to the forum.

repr

Snowbie wrote: »

Its all to do with source i'm afraid.
Returning continental maritime air in an easterly flow (med sourced)
Direct continental feed in an easterly(siberian sourced)
or a returning polar maritime easterly (Scandinavian or Faroe islands HP)

Top not good for snow,bottom two,chances are increased.
Also welcome to the forum.

What source are we suppose to get then one of the bottom 2 from Siberia or Scandinavia?

Then it might be cold for snow hehe

Snowbie

repr wrote: »

What source are we suppose to get then one of the bottom 2 from Siberia or Scandinavia?

Then it might be cold for snow hehe

It sure helps.

Glasnevin again this morning at 755 am.
Mild up to and including wenesday.
Cooler on thursday with a south easterly but dry.
Turning unsettled for next weekend.

Absolutely no mention that it might be colder and crtainly no mention of a snow or even sleet risk...

Remember guys they are every bit as professional as the UKMO with just as much information as the uk met have that we dont see.

The trend continues in the 00z to push the high further east further reducing the chances of any serious cold here.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn961.png

If this trend in model output continues,theres going to be a few disappointed posters here again including myself who have once again(though I personally did always include salt) fallen fowl to the folly of pandering to fantasy island output.

The flow of isobars from the med was never an 80's spell in the making.
Too much mixing of the wrong kind of air.

Snowbie

Its a pity really,look at the HP over Moscow at 1060mb.Imagine that placed over Norway/Sweden.It be going nowhere too soon.

Its another so close but yet so far type setup as usual.