Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

Ryanoneill2006

man utd 07/08 wrote: »

YOU MUST HAVE SOME LIFE..YOU MUST BE REALLY BORED:D:D:D:eek:

GOOD LUCK WITH THE WEATHER NOW LOSER:cool:

Great post.. Very informative!!!

SpitfireIV

Ryanoneill2006 wrote: »

Can I ask, How do todays charts compare to the charts before some of the big 80s snow events? Are there any similarities or is it a different Ball Game now??

Not sure about the charts Ryan, but a snip for NW:

You can hardly compare the upcoming cold snap with the great snowy spells of the early-mid 80s Richard, that would be mis-leading the younger members who didn't experience those 80s snowy spells into thinking this coming spell is progged to be on par with those halycon wintry spells. Jan 85, Jan 87 easterlies were in another league temperature wise ... not to mention the other less well known snowy spells in the 78-87 period.

The cold and potentially wintry spell later this week is very marginal looking at the parameters, as have been many similar spells that have brought snow in recent winters ... the early-mid-80s easterly spells weren't marginal at all at their full height of cold with day maxes well below freezing even on the coasts and snow lying for over a week even at low-levels in the south.

This coming spell will be interesting nonethless to forecast snow ... as it's so marginal.

ninebeanrows

Ryanoneill2006 wrote: »

Looks like the UK are bracing themselves.... This is taken from The Sky News Website.


An icy blast will bring snow, sleet and freezing temperatures to much of the UK in the first days of 2008.

Coming soon to a field near you...The New Year could see biting winds from the East bringing the harshest winter weather so far.

Forecasters say an inch or more of snow could fall "anywhere in the country" and in some areas there will be much more.

And that could mean roads and travel chaos as millions of people head home from New Year celebrations, and then return to work.

The freezing cold snap will arrive by Wednesday, as the chilly conditions that have already hit much of Europe move East.

Sky News weather forecaster Jo Wheeler said it would mean snow at first on higher ground - but then across the country.

Can I ask, How do todays charts compare to the charts before some of the big 80s snow events? Are there any similarities or is it a different Ball Game now??

Main difference, is the lack of a really intense cold pool to our east, and also the jet is forecast to be extremely strong.

There arent too many differences, but there are enough to make it turn out alot different.

Villain

Don't mind him Ryan he's too busy reporting posts about little boys who upset him on the internet

12z will be interesting

Danno

man utd 07/08 wrote: »

YOU MUST HAVE SOME LIFE..YOU MUST BE REALLY BORED:D:D:D:eek:

GOOD LUCK WITH THE WEATHER NOW LOSER:cool:

Soccerheads :rolleyes:

darkman2

man utd 07/08 wrote: »

YOU MUST HAVE SOME LIFE..YOU MUST BE REALLY BORED:D:D:D:eek:

GOOD LUCK WITH THE WEATHER NOW LOSER:cool:

How about a site ban for the New Year?:D

Snowbie

man utd 07/08 wrote: »

YOU MUST HAVE SOME LIFE..YOU MUST BE REALLY BORED:D:D:D:eek:

GOOD LUCK WITH THE WEATHER NOW LOSER:cool:

Banned for insulting a fellow weather nut,for posting off topic,for using caps and for following that team.
Will not tolerate that sort of thing on here.

Banned for a week as im in a good mood.

Danno

Snowbie wrote: »

Banned for insulting a fellow weather nut,for posting off topic,for using caps and for following that team.
Will not tolerate that sort of thing on here.

Banned for a week as im in a good mood.

Thank You!

Now back on topic. On Metcheck, Sunday looks cold... so this milder incursion looks like it will be short lived. Could the mild be downgraded???

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Banned for insulting a fellow weather nut,for posting off topic,for using caps and for following that team.
Will not tolerate that sort of thing on here.

Banned for a week as im in a good mood.

Lol, he's lucky you caught him first ya big softy

SpitfireIV

Hmmm, apparently we dont even fall into the 'low risk' category, this expected snow must be very choosey where it falls

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

arctictree

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Hmmm, apparently we dont even fall into the 'low risk' category, this expected snow must be very choosey where it falls

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Well, it seems to be a UK weather warning (as opposed to British Isles).

So I don't think we would be included in that anyway!

A

MUSEIST

Hey guys
I have not looked at any models yet today but has their been a upgrade
Their seems to be a lot of interest in this thread;)

maquiladora

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Hmmm, apparently we dont even fall into the 'low risk' category, this expected snow must be very choosey where it falls

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

It's far too early with such an event to pick exact regions that may be at risk and at what level.

I'm not worried by that chart

Snowbie

Myself and Longfield will create a dedicated thread to the potential snow event(slight ramp) if it pans out(counteract the slight ramp).

Continue to post here for the minute until the 12z rolls out and we will start a fresh thread up from it as this has gotten huge.

repr

I think in that metcheck warning that guy always put the east of england on red alert even if a 20mph breeze is goin to hit East Anglia.

I think he should have places like Edinburgh and Dundee in the red but he probably run out of paint

Villain

The Met office aren't giving us much hope:

Winds will become fresh to strong, easterly for Thursday and it will feel very cold as a result. A little drizzle or light rain will occur in places, again mainly in southern regions. Temperatures may be low enough to allow a few snow flurries also. It will turn very cold Thursday night, with a widespread frost. Friday will dry for a time early on in a moderate southwesterly breeze. However rain and drizzle will spread from the west during the afternoon, as winds increase fresh. Feeling very cold again during the day, with frost in more sheltered spots overnight.

We need a lot of upgrading in the 12z 18z and 00z to have any chance.

SpitfireIV

12z........upgrade, or downgrade?

Lay your bets now!

Villain

I'm betting downgrade with warm air in by Saturday and sleet here Thursday and Friday unless you head 800ft+

Trogdor

Weathercheck wrote: »

Unfortunately i can't at the moment as i don't have the application on my new pc!

Thats a shame.

Deleted User wrote: »

EDIT to say this reply is to trogdor



Falling snow doesn't guarantee sticking snow if it's wet snow.
It may stick temporally in heavier bursts but melt away quickly in lighter precip.

To answer your question,in my experience,if dewpoints are sub zero,then you can have snow sticking at anything below 3c (it can stick in really heavy bursts at higher temps than that but wont really last).The colder the better obviously.
That said the likelyhood is that if you are stuck under falling wettish snow,your temps are going to be falling(evap cooling) as the precip gets heavier if it gets heavier.

Even if the temp cooled enough to get proper snow with evaporative cooling though would the ground would then be wet and the snow still wouldn't stick?

maquiladora

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

12z........upgrade, or downgrade?

Lay your bets now!

Slight upgrade so far, but it's still rolling out....

Snowbie

trogdor wrote: »

Even if the temp cooled enough to get proper snow with evaporative cooling though would the ground would then be wet and the snow still wouldn't stick?

Thats a good question. Usually no but depending on how heavy the snow is falling,it would settle on top of wet ground accumulating as it does so and freezing the surface water below it(pavements,concrete etc)

Eg:The blizzard of 4th Jan '91,when the cold rain at 4c most of the day turned to snow with gusty winds when temp dropped off to 1c.
There was flooding on the road all day but the snow settled on top of it.Now in all fairness it pished snow for about 2hrs falling of light,though snow remained.

Danno

HP is about 100 miles further West at 00z Thurs.

Danno

Low pressure is not as low to the NW of spain

Snowbie

The 12z is starting to roll out now,continue to post here on the chances of some up and coming very cold weather with snow maybe for some.

So far it looks like a slight upgrade with winds coming from a more northern european area.

Please remember to stay on topic.

Snowbie

New thread[thread=2055208619] here[/thread] on the 12z.

Thread locked.

Snowbie

-8c 850's across the whole country.This is a huge upgrade to the 6z.

Winds from GFS are predicted from Denmark,Germany and Poland so not surprised of the decreased 850mb temps.

Looking good so far.

Danno

Channel Low for 6am Friday? Drags in NE air also!

Snowbie

Seen that secondary low that develops south of Ireland and travels up through the UK,very interesting stuff alright.

Atlantic is much weaker on this run and the siberian high is further west.

Darwin

Despite the cold air, what's worrying me is the lack of precipitation showing for Thursday/Friday

Darwin

Darwin wrote: »

Despite the cold air, what's worrying me is the lack of precipitation showing for Thursday/Friday

The lower 850's on this run have boosted the shower activity in the Irish sea.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn904.png

That would be sleet and snow galore even on the coast.

I wouldnt worry about those kind of details for now though.
Really cold air rushing over the warm sea will bring some precip I think-the thing is though,GFS or any model for that matter is useless at pinning that down outside 36hrs unless it's frontal.