Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

ninebeanrows

Yea precip is the main problem.

I prefer the UKM buffering the LP closer to us, more chance of snow.

For example here ;



The northern part of that band will be snow, we need it to push a bit further north and then we could have some moderate falls of snow.

It's most northern end bar that projection has been consistently progged as in munster.
Devil in the detail.
A few more runs before wenesday night will tell the tale.

Anyhows I be off-dunno what state I'll be in before lunchtime tomorrow for to be commenting on this.
ciao and happy new year and may the snow be with ye

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

It's most northern end bar that projection has been consistently progged as in munster.
Devil in the detail.
A few more runs before wenesday night will tell the tale.

Anyhows I be off-dunno what state I'll be in before lunchtime tomorrow for to be commenting on this.
ciao and happy new year and may the snow be with ye

I'm gonna do the same, same to you! and Happy New year to all later

Supercell

Things are indeed starting too look better.
No-one really will know the path that front takes until its taking it - these things are next to impossible to predict accuratly. As long as it reaches north Wicklow I'm happy!!

Danno

That precip chart is perfect WC! Snow in Laois! Yipeee! I hope it does not go further north or snow in laois becomes sleet or rain

Kippure

Didnt like tonights forecast on rte....

Ryanoneill2006

Met Eireann again going for cold but mainly dry with just the odd wintry shower and a quick return to mild weather!! I did notice a band of rain to the south on Fridays chart, is this where the snow risk is associated??

Supercell

The ensembles show Dublin as being dry during the coolest period, that said precipitation is hard to forecast accurately in advance, also the Irish sea is considerably warmer now than in late February or March so convectional stuff close to coastal areas cannot be overlooked.

Trogdor

Ensembles seem better on the 12z with a few runs trying to get the -10C air in, there's quite a spread though at around T+60 varying from 0C to -10C. Taken from NW
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Updated personal snowfall forecast, for the entire event 3-4 Jan and in some northern cases into 5 Jan:

--NO SNOW near sea level in southwest England, south to west Ireland near the coast

--SLEET mainly with limited accum in greater London, southeast coast, some parts of southern Ireland.

-- HEAVY FLURRIES but little accumulation in western Scotland

-- trace to 3 cms in such areas as inland south central at elevation, Essex, south downs, Thames valley where it may mix with freezing rain at times, Bristol, south Wales, north Wales, Lancs, southwest Scotland, east-central Ireland to Donegal. Amounts may become heavier if there is any local thundersnow.

-- 3 to 7 cms higher southwest, central Wales, much of west Midlands, Cotswolds, Chilterns, Suffolk

-- 7 to 10 cms Norfolk, east-central Midlands to south Pennines, much of Yorkshire and northeast England, eastern half of Scotland, Orkneys, Shetlands, with 10-20 cms in some bands of sea-effect coming inland and upsloping. Some severe blowing and drifting in open country due to 30-50 mph wind gusts, and some thunder-snow. Bitter cold in this zone making it feel like -12 C (actually -1 to -3 C at the height of the snow on Thursday).

As always, local variations sometimes as large as regional variations, but the best place to be for snow, probably at TEITS place, I think he may max out this round.

I cannot stress enough how dramatic this event will become as it quickly phases together, it's rather like a prize fight, at the present time the two are in their dressing rooms and quietly getting ready. When they come out into the ring and the bell goes, it is game on and

I'm off out now, will have a peek at the models again tomorrow, hopefully they'll have fallen into line with the 12z JMA with the second low undercutting as well:p
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.gif

Supercell

Hmm, just what is "east-central Ireland to Donegal"?. Its gibberish nonsense.

No one can forecast regional stuff like that with accuracy this far out, its pure and utter speculation.

Villain

18z is a downgrade with the cold moving further away to the North, ah well

repr

We could be in for some snow situation on friday night - sat morn

The atlantic tryin to meet that cold air. Fireworks Wow is all I can say:eek:

ninebeanrows

the futher north the beter in my opinion as the precip will have a chnace to reach us..
#
Best to look at rthe UKM when it comes, out focuesed on us not them!

The damn englanders give us a bad vibem, when reading their fora REMBER that they are talkiing about them,, NEGATIVES for the majority may be positives for us, the MINORITY!!!

So the nfurther north the front the better.

HAVE a great NEw years, enjoy its, the weather is half the world, lets hope it turns our landscape white, but whats more, lets hope we recieve pleasent weather, so our lives can continue peacefully.

Cudos to all and lets hope for a great NEw year full of snow and warmth and :eek::eek::eek::eek::D:D:D:D

SpitfireIV

Haha...........WC, go to bed fer feck sake!

Snowbie

Yeah WC dont mind them engerlanders:D

0z taking its time to roll out

SpitfireIV

Anyone care to elaborate on the 0z at this la.......early hour?

Hmmm, some of the early comments on NW dont sound encouraging.

Supercell

Major downgrade overnight, 850 air around -2°C and dry, no snow coming from that, any precip, if there is any, will just be rain.

arctictree

Longfield wrote: »

Major downgrade overnight, 850 air around -2°C and dry, no snow coming from that, any precip, if there is any, will just be rain.

Can you link to a chart? Is this the GFS 0z?

As far as I can see, the GFS 06z is showing the -5c 850 line passing right over wicklow at 18z on Thursday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png

I think its knife edge at this stage

A

tracy1002

Sky news are hopeful for the Uk
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1298880,00.html

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

I think its knife edge at this stage
A

Yes it's looking like sleet or very wet snow for you with what little precipitation there is.
If theres high ground above 1000ft around or near you thats probably where the "snow line" is looking to be.
By snow line,I mean where it will settle.
It might settle down to 800ft at a push but you won't be going sleigh riding in the wet type of stuff it's likely to be.

At least you are in with a chance of see'ing falling snow (albeit wet and not powder) unlike the rest of us.

Villain

As usual when we get to the decent time frame the models go tits up us to see snow, ah well

Trogdor

Still time for the little details to change, Met Eireann have a good forecast for here in fairness, a lot more interesting than zonality.

MET wrote:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY : Very cold. Strong and very chilling east to northeast winds. Dry in most places. Scattered wintry showers, mainly near the east and south coasts. THURSDAY NIGHT : Remaining very cold. Winds easing a good deal. Widespread frost, severe in places. Dry in most areas - but continuing risk of wintry showers. Some falls of snow possible, mainly in Ulster and north Leinster.

ninebeanrows

There is still alot of underlevel cold air there,

And i probably prefer this as the lp moves up much closer with the potential
for prolonged snow.

Anyway much will change over the next 24 hours in detail.

I am sorry for my drunkeness last night, i feel the effects of it now! :eek:

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Anyway much will change over the next 24 hours in detail.

:eek:

You can say that again? Are you doing a snow dance or summat? Because the latest BBC news 24 forecast has your frontal snow moving up to almost south of Dublin and well into my location...

ninebeanrows

Yea we want that to get a 50 miles further north, it will be snow on its northern front but it might be just too far south of here.

Im expecting some decent falls around the midlands, Wicklow.

Danno will be in the biz i think:D

I had a closer look at the news 24 graphics now and it has snow in the south Irish sea from that front fringing the Irish sea coast probably as far as mothman (wicklow head area).
South of that line it looks extensive for a few hours even on the coast.
I'd expect the high ground of North Wexford (theres a lot of areas above 500ft which helps a lot in terms of the dryness of what falls even if you are on the lower ground but near the higher ground), there west of Gorey towards Carnew running up near Tinahely/Shillelagh and in a straight line to the sea across aughrim - rathdrum-clash-Glenealy and at it's very north edge possibly mothmans area at a push-all those areas to see at least snow falling based on current thinking (this may change for the worse of the better) and I expect the further inland south of that line and the higher up you are, the more likely it is that snow will settle.But I do expect snow to fall even on the coast if the BBC/UKMO graphics are graphing snow at sea as they are off the coast of SE Ireland and in the celtic sea-thats not to be ignored!

Going on that map for thursday,it would miss roundwood just but I wouldnt rule it out.

Looking westward,I'd say all of Carlow ,south Laois and Kilkenny should see some white stuff.
Theres a danger that the further south west you go of that line that your whitestuff would retreat to the higher ground.

As for Danno,if he's in or about the Durrow area of co Laois, then precip should be snow-though not much precip-though precip there if heavy should settle.

Note I'm saying this based on the BBC graphics and on the precip line you posted earlier from the ECM weathercheck.
I'm assuming that since todays BBC forecasts are similar to that -that there must be a UKMO and ECM out this evening with at least similar which is good as it means they are growing in confidence as to what to expect.

Further note that everything I say is based on information to date/current models and should be seen as a comment on that.
I may change my view if newer information from models and meterologists thinking regarding them changes in the meantime.
But If I were to call it now,theres a good 60% chance of snow or higher in all the areas mentioned.

If things move a little further north then obviously so does the analysis

SpitfireIV

Deleted User wrote: »

Looking westward,I'd say all of Carlow ,south Laois and Kilkenny should see some white stuff.

That'll do me

Supercell

The positioning of the northward extent of any precipitation is nigh on imposible to predict in these setups - I seen plenty of times where its moved far north and far south of predicted, it will very much be a nowcast scenario.

As to rain or snow, it will snow..but probably at >350 meters imho unless you live at the very northward edge of the the precipitation where it may temporariliy fall to much lower levels.

All in all going to be an exciting Thursday/Friday period.

ninebeanrows

The 12z GFS, is an astonishing downgrade.

Never have i seen such macro changes in such a short timeframe.

the -5c line is around 500 miles further north, we are in a mild southerly
rather than a cold easterly.

Indeed there would be just one day of cool temps if this were to come to pass.

Amazing

Trogdor

WRF's take on Thursday
Charts copyright meteoblue