1st 2008 Weekend Betting(FA CUP)

paulizei · 06-01-2008 11:34am

Apart from Bristol Rovers, Burnley v Arsenal is the only FA cup game I'm really interested in today until I get more info about team selections and the like. The Arse will probably play a strong side and let the youngsters play the Carling cup semi, but either side should win easily.

Single:
===
Arsenal -1 @ 11/10. Can be covered with in game betting but I doubt it'll be needed.

Small Double:
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Arsenal -1
Sochaux ht/ft @ 8/11

Smaller Combo:
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Bristol Rovers + 2 @ 4/7 looks ok. Bristol Rovers aren't that bad and will be motivated while Fulham are only interested in staying up and have important derbies coming up.
Rennes @ 8/15
Sochaux ht/ft

Only 1 or two shocks in the French cup so far, so I'm going with this small stakes 25/1 combo.
===
Paris FC +1
Rennes
Sochaux ht/ft
Lille ht/ft
Lyon ht/ft

Lille and Sochaux (cup holders) are playing away to 7th division sides on neutral 1st division grounds so there's no real home advantage. The straight wins make a handy double too.

4pm: All singles and a Treble.
===
Atletico Madrid draw no bet. Scoring loads (Aguero ftw) and have tightened defence.
Getafe draw no bet @ 2/5. Valladolid are poor away, while Getafe are getting stronger everywhere.
Leixoes + 1 @ 5/6. Half of Maritimo's regular team is out and Leixoes have better form lately.

May include Rec de Huelva and Osasuna later.
I don't quite trust Valencia yet, even against Levante. Too many problems at the club, but might stick them in a combo with Rec de Huelva, Real Madrid and Osasuna, funds permitting.
I'm avoiding Santander v Bilbao, Santander have a great home record but if Bilbao take the lead they get everyone behind the ball.

8pm:
Singles, a double and overs.
===
Seville @ 8/13. Derby game that's traditionally very tight, but Betis are much weaker than they used to be and Seville are scoring bucketloads due to Fabiano, Kanoute and Kone, so overs look likely too.
Porto -1 @ 8/13 or win to nil @ 4/7. 3-0 CS.

Pj! · 06-01-2008 11:34am

paulizei wrote: »

Most other forums would not tolerate your 'get on' malarkey in fairness. Anyone who claims they don't give reasons for picks because they're not being paid is no use to anyone else on a betting forum. Most other places have threads for picks with analysis and a separate thread for picks with no reasons required, and sometimes livescore threads for bet-in-play picks like my Bolton one. It's fine as it is here imo, but that's what we should have maybe.

I don't see whats wrong with my 'Get On' malarky to be honest and I haven't heard anyone else complain about it. I'm only posting selections after all.

The reason I pick the selections is because I think the price is too big. Simple as that. I can see a fixture and it doesn't matter to me who I think will win, its only when I go through all the odds that I might find a bet. In my heart I might not even think my selection will win, but my head will know the price is far too generous.
So as I said, in my head I might not even fancy the selection, so how on earth can I put a write-up about it. The simple fact with all my bets is I believe the odds to be greater than they should.
If anyone doesn't understand that they don't understand 'value' and will never make money from gambling until they do.

Anyone who claims they don't give reasons for picks because they're not being paid is no use to anyone else on a betting forum.

Thats nonsense!
I simply said that if I was getting paid, I would be expected to write up some nonsense about my selections, like many of the newspaper tipsters have to.

And anyway I only wish to get paid from the bookies.

paulizei · 06-01-2008 11:48am

No problem mate, let's just try get something from today's games eh? The Arse better not let me down today.

Pj! · 06-01-2008 11:57am

Nothing for me for today, best of luck though.

m.j.w · 06-01-2008 1:09pm

What do ya's think about newcastle and stoke? Is Michael Owen playing today?

tubey · 06-01-2008 1:27pm

raheny red wrote: »

My single of the weekend is on Villa :cool:

lol, you can smell a liverpool fan a mile away. And what a stench...

adrian522 · 06-01-2008 1:28pm

I haven't decided yet on what to bet on today, however Arsenal look safe enough, even their reserves have been playing really well in carling cup.
Loathed to go near newcastle as i'm not convinced the players are behind allerdayce.
Think Sevilla will win the derby in Spain tonite as they are a good bit better than betis who are battling relegation.

A bit like newcastle, won't be going near valencia, Madrid should beat Zaragoza I think (but not dead certs)

ErinGoBrath · 06-01-2008 2:08pm

For the early match I'm going to do a sizeable single on an in-form Eduardo (providing he starts - awaiting team news) to score at any time @ 2.22

Good luck to all

adrian522 · 06-01-2008 2:14pm

accum for me for today:
1 Burnley v Arsenal (Backing Arsenal @ 1.42)
2 Real Madrid v Zaragoza (Backing Real Madrid @ 1.33)
3 Sevilla v Betis (Backing Sevilla @ 1.63)
4 Luton v Liverpool (Backing Liverpool @ 1.33)

@4.08

IrishMike · 06-01-2008 2:35pm

Totally agree with the above posts about afterbetting by the way, hence my minute by
minute updates on how my bets are doing

Anyway today im going for arsenal -1 and liverpool -1 @ 3-1
Should be safe (famous last words)

ErinGoBrath · 06-01-2008 3:12pm

ErinGoBrath wrote: »

For the early match I'm going to do a sizeable single on an in-form Eduardo (providing he starts - awaiting team news) to score at any time @ 2.22

What a finish!

threebeards · 06-01-2008 3:20pm

ErinGoBrath wrote: »

What a finish!

Nice one.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 06-01-2008 3:39pm

I fancy

Liverpool half/full time win
Real MadridvZaragoza over 2.5 goals
Stoke +1

20 accum

To late for the Arsenal game

raheny red · 06-01-2008 4:05pm

tubey wrote: »

lol, you can smell a liverpool fan a mile away. And what a stench...

What makes you think I'm a Liverpool fan?

ErinGoBrath · 06-01-2008 4:41pm

Going over 3.5 goals for the last 10 @ 9.0

Very small bet

ErinGoBrath · 06-01-2008 5:01pm

Peter Crouch to score anytime @ 2.02

IrishMike · 06-01-2008 5:44pm

Arsenal did the business but looks like liverpool are struggling yet again

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 06-01-2008 5:56pm

**Sigh** Liverpool playing terrible (alonso brutal) you would not be able to differentiate who is 60 places ahead in the leagues, this has 0-0 written all over it and has my bet fcked

raheny red · 06-01-2008 6:09pm

I've Liverpool minus 1 - ain't looking good really.

adrian522 · 06-01-2008 6:34pm

Liverpoll are terrible and are very very lucky (and so am i it seems)

ErinGoBrath · 06-01-2008 6:35pm

ErinGoBrath wrote: »

Peter Crouch to score anytime @ 2.02

Totally against the run of play but I'll not complain

paulizei · 06-01-2008 6:37pm

Everything looks grand for me except for Getafe wrecking me treble unless they get 3 goals in 15 minutes. Atletico Madrid banging them in so a couple of quid on them to get a 4th. 3/1 or so.

adrian522 · 06-01-2008 6:53pm

well that's me pretty much cleaned out....

ErinGoBrath · 06-01-2008 6:59pm

Over 3.5 goals in the Newcastle match @ 3.55

norm · 06-01-2008 7:06pm

Thats it. Not backing Liverpool ever again. Let me down too many times in recent weeks. Only newcastle left to rescue my weekend. But with the way the rest of the cup ties have gone, i may as well write that off too!

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 06-01-2008 7:09pm

Brinley Plain Geisha wrote: »

**Sigh** Liverpool playing terrible (alonso brutal) you would not be able to differentiate who is 60 places ahead in the leagues, this has 0-0 written all over it and has my bet fcked

Made a tactical decision at half time toyed with the idea of sticking €100 on the 0-0 draw but decided to go with the samller odds on the draw, get in:D this pulls me back nicely and leaves me €104 up for the weekend.

And for you aftertiming doubters out there

Selections
Selection 1 Draw @ 21/10 To Win - Win
Market Win/Draw/Win
Event FA Cup
Luton Town v Liverpool (Sky Sports 1)
16:00 06/01/2008

Bet Type Single
Unit Stake €100.00
Number of Units x1
Stake €100.00
Time and Date Placed 16:56 06/01/2008
Receipt Number O/1049313/0000042
Win Units 1
Void Units 0
Returns €310.00
Refund €0.00
Settle info

Pj! · 06-01-2008 7:09pm

norm wrote: »

Thats it. Not backing Liverpool ever again. Let me down too many times in recent weeks. Only newcastle left to rescue my weekend. But with the way the rest of the cup ties have gone, i may as well write that off too!

You don't have to bet...

Pj! · 06-01-2008 7:12pm

Brinley Plain Geisha wrote: »

Made a tactical decision at half time toyed with the idea of sticking €100 on the 0-0 draw but decided to go with the samller odds on the draw, get in:D this pulls me back nicely and leaves me €104 up for the weekend.

And for you aftertiming doubters out there

Selections
Selection 1 Draw @ 21/10 To Win - Win
Market Win/Draw/Win
Event FA Cup
Luton Town v Liverpool (Sky Sports 1)
16:00 06/01/2008

Bet Type Single
Unit Stake €100.00
Number of Units x1
Stake €100.00
Time and Date Placed 16:56 06/01/2008
Receipt Number O/1049313/0000042
Win Units 1
Void Units 0
Returns €310.00
Refund €0.00
Settle info

You don't get it mate. Its not that we doubt you.
Its that the post is absolutely f*ckin useless and pointless.

norm · 06-01-2008 7:13pm

True Forky. But everyone has at least one vice. This is mine i guess.;)

paulizei · 06-01-2008 7:13pm

A 4th Lyon goal will suit me fine. Tempted by over 4.5 odds but dunno.

1st 2008 Weekend Betting(FA CUP)

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