1st 2008 Weekend Betting(FA CUP)

Pj!

norm wrote: »

True Forky. But everyone has at least one vice. This is mine i guess.;)

Fair enough mate. You could be doing worse things!

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

Forky wrote: »

You don't get it mate. Its not that we doubt you.
Its that the post is absolutely f*ckin useless and pointless.

Are we not allowed celebrate our bets when they come up in particular when it has been a car crash of weekend results wise so far. This is a public forum yeah

adrian522

Throwing my last 25 on Sevilla/Porto double at evens.

Also have an NFL treble which should come in later on.....

Pj!

Brinley Plain Geisha wrote: »

Are we not allowed celebrate our bets when they come up in particular when it has been a car crash of weekend results wise so far. This is a public forum yeah

I had a reply wrote out but I seem to be arguing half the time on this forum for some reason so for a change I'll say no more and leave it to others if they decide to take it up.

adrian522

Forky wrote: »

I had a reply wrote out but I seem to be arguing half the time on this forum for some reason so for a change I'll say no more and leave it to others if they decide to take it up.

I have no problem at all with people celebrating good wins, but they need to post the bet when you make it not after it's been settled. otherwise what's the point?

Same poster earlier was backing Liverpool HT/FT. Then all of a sudden he had backed a draw. Well done for the win but could have posted that at half time

mike65

Basicly if you "afterpost" we want to see a screenshot of the bet!

Mike.

paulizei

I hate to say it but I think Newcastle can win this. I just took them @ 11/10. Only cos Benzema made my day and I can afford it mind. I wouldn't otherwise.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

adrian522 wrote: »

I have no problem at all with people celebrating good wins, but they need to post the bet when you make it not after it's been settled. otherwise what's the point?

Same poster earlier was backing Liverpool HT/FT. Then all of a sudden he had backed a draw. Well done for the win but could have posted that at half time

Fair point raised Adrian, reason for me betting half time was my 20 accum was fcked with the pool HT/FT. I am a reg to the poker forum newbie to the Gambling forum so like any other forum theres a settling in period

adrian522

remind me never to bet on liverpool again

ErinGoBrath

mike65 wrote: »

Basicly if you "afterpost" we want to see a screenshot of the bet!

Mike.

Well people just shouldn't afterpost at all! Thing is if the bet hadn't of won then he wouldn't have posted afterwards.

They could be losing their shirts and only afterposting winners. Just ruins any credibility for the poster IMHO.

paulizei

paulizei wrote: »

Apart from Bristol Rovers, Burnley v Arsenal is the only FA cup game I'm really interested in today until I get more info about team selections and the like. The Arse will probably play a strong side and let the youngsters play the Carling cup semi, but either side should win easily.

Single: Win
===
Arsenal -1 @ 11/10. Can be covered with in game betting but I doubt it'll be needed.

Small Double: Win
===
Arsenal -1
Sochaux ht/ft @ 8/11

Smaller Combo:Win
===
Bristol Rovers + 2 @ 4/7 looks ok. Bristol Rovers aren't that bad and will be motivated while Fulham are only interested in staying up and have important derbies coming up.
Rennes @ 8/15
Sochaux ht/ft


Only 1 or two shocks in the French cup so far, so I'm going with this small stakes 25/1 combo. Win
===
Paris FC +1
Rennes
Sochaux ht/ft
Lille ht/ft
Lyon ht/ft

Lille and Sochaux (cup holders) are playing away to 7th division sides on neutral 1st division grounds so there's no real home advantage. The straight wins make a handy double too.


4pm: All singles and a Treble. Fail
===
Atletico Madrid draw no bet. Scoring loads (Aguero ftw) and have tightened defence.
Getafe draw no bet @ 2/5. Valladolid are poor away, while Getafe are getting stronger everywhere.
Leixoes + 1 @ 5/6. Half of Maritimo's regular team is out and Leixoes have better form lately.

May include Rec de Huelva and Osasuna later.
I don't quite trust Valencia yet, even against Levante. Too many problems at the club, but might stick them in a combo with Rec de Huelva, Real Madrid and Osasuna, funds permitting.

I'm avoiding Santander v Bilbao, Santander have a great home record but if Bilbao take the lead they get everyone behind the ball.

Well up today. Just Seville and Porto to go. And Newcastle bless them.

adrian522

well done, a lot of research went into those bets....

paulizei

adrian522 wrote: »

well done, a lot of research went into those bets....

Ta, yeah a fair bit, some of it was off though.

Covering my Newcastle bet with a 1-0 Stoke win...Someone feckin score pls.

IrishMike

The next person that says i backed xy and z in a treble at 30-1 with €50 should be shot imho.
If you cant post before you made the bet then you are obviously just guessing at the outcomes.
My reasoning is that if you dont have the time to post your reasoning for the bet then you have no research or thought put into the bet.
If that is the case then im going to start a thread saying I got a 2+19 in the lotto how
great am I.
If you dont post before the bet then keep the damn outcome to yourself
Thats my €0.50.

adrian522

Very bad week ends on a small bit of a high with the sevilla/porto double coming in.

My big 50EUR accum came up short due to liverpool and lost 50 yesterday as both my bets involved Everton winning.

Hopefully back to more profitable bets next week

PS all the above bets were posted on this thread.

mike65

Runs off to check my mega accu

Bah! Valencia can't beat Levante at home.

Mike.

adrian522

At the moment Valaencia are about as reliable as liverpool

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

no point starting a new thread - 2 matches for Monday night smallish bet

Torquay v Burton Albion - this will be a close game but will take Burton +1 at 5/6. Last time they met this season Burton won 3-1 and they are also undefeaten in there last 5 games and have lost only 1 in there last 5 away games.

Linfield v Cliftonville - Have to go with Linfield at 5/6 they are scoring for fun at the moment 9 in there last 2 league fixtures with their striker Peter Thompson scoring 7 of them. Cliftonville have also 2 key defenders out.

burton+1 5/6
linfield 5/6
€20 double

paulizei

adrian522 wrote: »

Very bad week ends on a small bit of a high with the sevilla/porto double coming in.

Nice one. Unfortunately I messed up my double by going for Porto -1 instead of cleansheet win for no good reason. The Seville overs covered the stake so I didn't lose anything but I'm a bit disappointed after an otherwise very good day. Right CS, wrong pick.

paulizei wrote: »

8pm:
Singles, a double and overs.
===
Seville @ 8/13. Derby game that's traditionally very tight, but Betis are much weaker than they used to be and Seville are scoring bucketloads due to Fabiano, Kanoute and Kone, so overs look likely too.
Porto -1 @ 8/13 or win to nil @ 4/7. 3-0 CS.

Ah well, back to work tomorrow.

jameshayes

Bad weekend for me, only one of my 30-1 accums came in, and I only had 100euro on it, ah well!!!


Yeah right! lost half my pocket, feckin FA cup.

jameshayes

Brinley Plain Geisha wrote: »

Torquay v Burton Albion - this will be a close game but will take Burton +1 at 5/6. Last time they met this season Burton won 3-1 and they are also undefeaten in there last 5 games and have lost only 1 in there last 5 away games.

I often look at the matched amounts on betfair for markets and on this one +3.5 goals and -3.5 goals are fairly close - there is 120K matched on the market which is really weird for a over 3.5 goals market.

The split is normally (if it was 120K matched) 20K over / 100K under but today it's 56K over / and 64K under

I'm jumping on this bandwagon. 11/4 over 3.5 goals.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

jameshayes wrote: »

I often look at the matched amounts on betfair for markets and on this one +3.5 goals and -3.5 goals are fairly close - there is 120K matched on the market which is really weird for a over 3.5 goals market.

The split is normally (if it was 120K matched) 20K over / 100K under but today it's 56K over / and 64K under

I'm jumping on this bandwagon. 11/4 over 3.5 goals.

Interesting - there last 10 matches combined have resulted in a total of 24 goals giving a 2.4 avg but serious odds being given for the overs

ErinGoBrath

Interesting matching going on there alright.

I'd say it's a scam, bet the goals are a foot wider, a size 4 football and dwarf goalies.

I'm lumping on!

threebeards

jameshayes wrote: »

I often look at the matched amounts on betfair for markets and on this one +3.5 goals and -3.5 goals are fairly close - there is 120K matched on the market which is really weird for a over 3.5 goals market.

The split is normally (if it was 120K matched) 20K over / 100K under but today it's 56K over / and 64K under

I'm jumping on this bandwagon. 11/4 over 3.5 goals.

Very strange pattern on this market. Over 3.5 is in to 12/5 now. Is the sheep mentality working overtime i.e. money following money?

I'm tempted to lay 3.5 because if there's no goal in the first 10-15 mins I think I can get out with a decent profit. On that basis I'm going to lay over 3.5 for €100. Liability is €245 but I'd be confident of not getting caught for that amount.

threebeards

threebeards wrote: »

Very strange pattern on this market. Over 3.5 is in to 12/5 now. Is the sheep mentality working overtime i.e. money following money?

I'm tempted to lay 3.5 because if there's no goal in the first 10-15 mins I think I can get out with a decent profit. On that basis I'm going to lay over 3.5 for €100. Liability is €245 but I'd be confident of not getting caught for that amount.

Layed over 3.5 goals @ 3.45. Could have got out at 4.1 before the goal but got greedy. Dropped to 2.2 at that stage and I've just got out at 3.55 now cos I haven't the balls for it

threebeards

threebeards wrote: »

Layed over 3.5 goals @ 3.45. Could have got out at 4.1 before the goal but got greedy. Dropped to 2.2 at that stage and I've just got out at 3.55 now cos I haven't the balls for it

How bloody lucky am I. Just out before the 2nd goal

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

Brinley Plain Geisha wrote: »

no point starting a new thread - 2 matches for Monday night smallish bet

Torquay v Burton Albion - this will be a close game but will take Burton +1 at 5/6. Last time they met this season Burton won 3-1 and they are also undefeaten in there last 5 games and have lost only 1 in there last 5 away games.

Linfield v Cliftonville - Have to go with Linfield at 5/6 they are scoring for fun at the moment 9 in there last 2 league fixtures with their striker Peter Thompson scoring 7 of them. Cliftonville have also 2 key defenders out.

burton+1 5/6
linfield 5/6
€20 double

Just took the 0-0 linfield v cliftonville with 33 minutes left just to cover both bets, cannot see cliftonville scoring and the 9/4 is decent enough and burton are 2-1 up

Selection 1
Selection No Goal @ 9/4
Leg Sort Continuous Win
Market Next Goal (#1)
Event Northern Irish Premier League
Linfield v Cliftonville (Sky Sports 1)
2008-01-07 19:45:00
Bet Type
Bet Type Win Single
Unit Stake €9.00

IrishMike

threebeards wrote: »

How bloody lucky am I. Just out before the 2nd goal

2-1 after 51 mins.
Looking like its going to be over 3.5
Nice job jumping ship

threebeards

Brinley Plain Geisha wrote: »

and burton are 2-1 up

I think you're safe enough there. I can't see Torquay scoring twice

threebeards

IrishMike wrote: »

2-1 after 51 mins.
Looking like its going to be over 3.5
Nice job jumping ship

It wasn't so much based on logic Mike, more to do with the fact that I was cacking it