And so the Quadrennial Fun Begins...

Manic Moran

In Iowa. This has been much hyped for God knows how long, and the way all the States have been moving their caucuses forwards has turned into a farce. Elections in Michigan and Florida won't even count where the Democrats are concerned, and Republican elections in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyomind will only count for half.

It's Obama and Huckabee first out of the starting gates. I must say, I'm rather pleased that Edwards did better than Clinton, though would have hoped Thompson could have beaten Romney. Romney kindof worries me. Shame about Richardson, I like him. Interesting that Giuliani, a hot favourite nationwide didn't even place.

Of course, Iowa is really something of a nominal victory. The State is hardly a microcosm of the US's demographics and it is misleading to read too much into the results. Still it's a bit of a morale boost and major publicity coup for the first few people out, and nobody has ever won the Presidential Election without placing in the top three in the Iowa Caucus.

Which reminds me, I must remember to request a ballot next week...

NTM

bonkey

Manic Moran wrote: »

Interesting that Giuliani, a hot favourite nationwide didn't even place.

I'd say that's mostly because he didn't put much/any effort into Iowa, concentrating instead on other states.

and nobody has ever won the Presidential Election without placing in the top three in the Iowa Caucus.

Without placing in the top 3 in the primaries, or without placing in the top 3 in the actual presidential election?

ghostdancer

most recent Rasmussen poll for both parties in New Hampshire, taken the day after Iowa (Jan 4th)

Democrats:

Obama 37%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 3%
Gravel 1%



Republicans:

John McCain 31%
Mitt Romney 26%
Ron Paul 14%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Fred Thompson 5%
Other 2%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

ghostdancer

ARG polling on Jan 4th:

Democrats:
Obama 38% (+7)
Clinton 26% (-9)
Edwards 20% (+5)
Richardson 3% (-2)
Gravel 3% (+2)
Kucinich 1% (-1)
Undecided 9% (+1)

Republicans:
McCain 39%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 6%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%
Thompson 1%
Undecided 6%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Moriarty

Intresting to see McCain's campaign experiencing a resurgence. I've always figured people continue to write him off far too easily.

is_that_so

Interesting times OK although it was only Iowa and you can't help feeling that it has been a tad over hyped in terms of its genuine importance. Even so having read Obama's speech I thought it was stirring but a little light. I also wonder how a random 601 people can suddenly catapult you into a 10% lead.

As some of today's papers have also commented he will now be exposed to a far greater media scrutiny. To my mind that is an opportunity for him to prove himself up to it. If he can do that then he could well be on his way to nomination. However the Clinton machine is formidable and when you consider how McCain has risen , fallen and now appears to be rising again, this election season should provide some great excitement.

Manic Moran

Romney won Wyoming, and gained 8 delegates, Thompson came in second with three, Hunter got one. These numbers are low because Wyoming is one of the states which has been penalised by the Republican party for such an early primary: Half their delegates have been barred.

Democratic primaries for Wyoming are in March.

NTM

ghostdancer

3 new NH polls:


CNN/WMUR:

http://www.wmur.com/download/2008/0107/14989603.pdf


Obama 39
Clinton 29
Edwards 16
Richardson 7
Kucinich 2
Gravel 0

R:
McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 11
Paul 10
Hunter 1
Thompson 1





USA Today/Gallup


Obama 41
Clinton 28
Edwards 19
Richardson 6

R:
McCain 34
Romney 30
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 8
Paul 8



Rasmussen:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election

---

Survey of 1,210 Likely Dem Primary Voters
January 4-5, 2008

New Hampshire Dem Primary
39% Barack Obama
27% Hillary Clinton
18% John Edwards
8% Bill Richardson
3% Dennis Kucinich
0% Mike Gravel
Margin of error: +/- 3%

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Primary Voters say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for Barack Obama if he is nominated. An identical number, 88%, say the same about John Edwards. Just 80% would consider voting for Hillary Clinton if she is nominated.

Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.

---

Survey of 1,102 Likely GOP Voters
January 4-5, 2008

New Hampshire GOP Primary
32% John McCain
30% Mitt Romney
11% Ron Paul
11% Mike Huckabee
9% Rudy Giuliani
4% Fred Thompson
2% Some other candidate
Margin of error: +/- 3%

Romney has a slight edge over McCain among conservative voters, 34% to 28%. McCain holds more than a two-to-one advantage over Romney among moderates.

McCain appeals to more Primary Voters as a general election candidate than any other candidate in the field. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Likely Primary Voters say they’d be at least somewhat likely to vote for McCain in November. Seventy-five percent (75%) say the same about Romney, and 74% would consider voting for Giuliani. Just 65% say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for Huckabee if he is nominated while 62% say the same about Thompson. Just 52% would consider voting for Ron Paul if he is nominated.

McCain is also seen as the most electable Republican. Seventy-six percent (76%) of GOP voters say the Arizona Senator is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Sixty-eight percent (68%) have that confidence in Romney and 60% say the same of Rudy Giuliani. Yesterday’s report also noted that just three Republican candidates are currently viewed favorably by even a plurality of Likely Primary Voters.

Manic Moran

Voting begins today in California. It's not unheard of for 40% or more of the voting to be done by mail, and today's the day you can start mailing. There are usually two 'pulses', people who are fairly sure of themselves will vote almost immediately (and thus will be affected a little by the current standings in IA and NH), and the rest will generally decide in the last week.

NTM

Manic Moran

I am bemused that with Richardson out of the race, the newspapers and online media only now decide to wax poetic about him and his abilities in their obituaries. He got more front-page headlines when he dropped out than he did in the rest of the campaign, and every single article described him as the most experienced candidate in the Democratic field, and the one with the greatest overall appeal, both on charismatic grounds and on the grounds of moderate policies.

Where the hell was his media coverage when he was running?

NTM

Manic Moran

So, with Romney winning Michigan, it's closer to a three-way race. Just to make things even more fun, Saturday is South Carolina, where Thompson is supposed to make his stand, and the pundits think a win, or more likely a strong 2nd, is not that far from the realm of possibility.

More worrying was Hillary's score in Michigan, gaining 61% of the vote, when she was pretty much the only person on the ballot.

NTM

Tommy T

The Republican campaign is so interesting. Don't forget Rudy making his first stand in Fl. He'll most likely take NY also. What are the polls in Ca telling you on the Rep side..?

The Michigan vote won't be counted in the Convention will it for the Dems..?

Manic Moran

No, it won't.

Actually, I've not heard much about who's on top for the Rs here in CA. Remember, I'm in the Bay Area, almost nobody here gives a damn about Rs, all the talk's about how Hillary no longer seems to have the State sewn up from Obama.

NTM

Tommy T

Manic Moran wrote: »

No, it won't.

Actually, I've not heard much about who's on top for the Rs here in CA. Remember, I'm in the Bay Area, almost nobody here gives a damn about Rs, all the talk's about how Hillary no longer seems to have the State sewn up from Obama.

NTM

CA will be vital for Hillary. If she doesn't win there she'll find it hard to make up the delegate numbers.

I suppose if Arnie endorses one of the R's thats a done deal for the candidate in question. I duppose he'd have most in common with Romney in the economy but might go for McCain as a safer, non-Mormon, option...

metrovelvet

bonkey wrote: »

I'd say that's mostly because he didn't put much/any effort into Iowa, concentrating instead on other states.

It might also be because he likes to dress up like a woman.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8

SteveS

Tommy T wrote: »

The Michigan vote won't be counted in the Convention will it for the Dems..?

I have some friends that are active in the Democratic Party leadership and they say there is a good chance the national party will chnage their mind and allow the MI delegates to participate in the convention.

Manic Moran

Given that the major candidates boycotted Michigan in support of the DNC, I don't see any way this could happen without massive outcry.

NTM

Tommy T

Regarding the last two posts on MI. I was watching MSNBC last night and the point was made that if either OB or Hill have a comfortable lead going to the Convention then the MI votes won't matter a whole lot anyway.

However if they're neck and neck and the result is 'too close to call' then the MI delegates could be brought into the limelight and their votes could well be counted. It makes for even more intrigue in an already fascinating contest.

If anyone's interested I also recommend www.politicalcrossfire.com It's a forum with mainly American members and has alot of coverage and debate on the election...

SteveS

Tommy T wrote: »

Regarding the last two posts on MI. I was watching MSNBC last night and the point was made that if either OB or Hill have a comfortable lead going to the Convention then the MI votes won't matter a whole lot anyway.

However if they're neck and neck and the result is 'too close to call' then the MI delegates could be brought into the limelight and their votes could well be counted. It makes for even more intrigue in an already fascinating contest.

If anyone's interested I also recommend www.politicalcrossfire.com It's a forum with mainly American members and has alot of coverage and debate on the election...

This is what I am hearing, too.

Manic Moran

In the meantime, from the Party that complains about voter disenfranchisement, the courts have struck down an objection to the at-large caucasi in the Vegas casinos. Apparently the objection is that it is unfair that the casino workers should be allowed to vote at their place of work while others may not. There are a couple of interesting points here. One is that nobody seemed to object when these caucasi were proposed a few years ago, the rationale was that with casinos working 24x7 it would be difficult for the workers to caucus, so they were created in order to facilitate their voting. However, as soon as the very large Casino Workers' Union declared official support for Obama, all of a sudden it's objectionable to the Teachers' Union, which leans towards Hillary.

As an opinion piece on CNN commented, we're not really any better than the bullying tactics we see in Pakistan or Kenya: We've just progressed to using lawyers instead of firearms.

NTM

SteveS

How much easier do they have to make voting? It lasts from the early morning unp until the evening. There is free transportation in most places if you can't get there on your own. If there are still problems, you can (in most states) request a free absentee ballot and vote from the comfort of your own home.

Manic Moran

Looks like score another for McCain, and Rudy'll likely drop out.

The Cardboard Cutout of Clinton has apparently beaten the Cardboard Cutout of Obama in FL. (The actual candidates didn't campaign) Watch for her to complain that the FL delegates should count, if she's losing at the end of the primary season.

Interestingly, Florida is a totally closed state, with no independents allowed to vote at all, which are where many of Obama's votes in his victories to date have lain. Oddly, though, McCain has managed to take the Republican cause even though he suffered the same disadvantage. Is it possible that the Republican primary-goers are voting strategically, believing McCain has the best chance to win a General Election?

NTM

ghostdancer

i don't think there's any doubt that McCain is the best candidate for the GOP, he 's the only one showing any signs of pulling in independant voters, and i think best represents the party's core values over Romney, who although with plenty of expeerience with economic issues, has little else to offer IMO. his governing of Mass. was hardly admired, especially in the final year when he pretty much seemed to stop caring about the state and start worrying about IA and NH.

with Guiliani's probable dropping out and endorsement of McCain later today, I'd imagine that he'll be pretty much take NY, and CA without too much hassle, which will be a big help overall.

it will be interesting to see where Huckabee goes. I think that if Huckabee dropped out and took a VP under McCain, that ticket would be pretty strong.
I haven't been following the R race too closely so I've no idea how compatible they are on major issues, but judging from their tag-team efforts on Romney previously, and both appealing to large sections of the GOP base, as well as McCain's independant draw should be quite formidable, not least good old-fashioned republican Clinton hate should she get the nom.


on the other side, I hope Dean and the DNC stand up to this pathetic cynical Clinton stunt. she had no problem months ago with Michigan or Florida being unseated, yet now she discovers that she doesn't have the god-given right to the Dem nominee, and she pretends that she actually cares about the voices of those citizens, and not about the fact that she now needs every delegate she can. ridiculous.

Moriarty

So then..

McCain wins Florida with Giuliani and Edwards dropping out.

Looks like McCain has the republican nomination sewn up with the two horse race continuing for the democrats.

moe_sizlak

ghostdancer wrote: »

i don't think there's any doubt that McCain is the best candidate for the GOP, he 's the only one showing any signs of pulling in independant voters, and i think best represents the party's core values over Romney, who although with plenty of expeerience with economic issues, has little else to offer IMO. his governing of Mass. was hardly admired, especially in the final year when he pretty much seemed to stop caring about the state and start worrying about IA and NH.

with Guiliani's probable dropping out and endorsement of McCain later today, I'd imagine that he'll be pretty much take NY, and CA without too much hassle, which will be a big help overall.

it will be interesting to see where Huckabee goes. I think that if Huckabee dropped out and took a VP under McCain, that ticket would be pretty strong.
I haven't been following the R race too closely so I've no idea how compatible they are on major issues, but judging from their tag-team efforts on Romney previously, and both appealing to large sections of the GOP base, as well as McCain's independant draw should be quite formidable, not least good old-fashioned republican Clinton hate should she get the nom.


on the other side, I hope Dean and the DNC stand up to this pathetic cynical Clinton stunt. she had no problem months ago with Michigan or Florida being unseated, yet now she discovers that she doesn't have the god-given right to the Dem nominee, and she pretends that she actually cares about the voices of those citizens, and not about the fact that she now needs every delegate she can. ridiculous.

mc cain has always been in many ways at odds with the gop base , thats well known , hes not a christian fundie , hes not a fiscal and corporate extremist and hes practical on the issue of immigration as recently shown by his joint deal with ted kennedy which further enraged the traditional gop voter

that said he is there best hope because polls have shown hes the only republican who has any chance of beating either hillary over obama

personally i like the guy a lot and could stomach another republican win under him
his vp i reckon wont be huckabee who represents the ned flanders brigade although it would be a help in the south would alienate him from independant voters who really like him , i reckon fred thompson or perhaps even more likely rudi though that might look like too liberal a republican ticket
could pick any vp , maybe one that didnt even run for president

ps, romney wont win because the guy is a waxwork who makes al gore seem cool

Manic Moran

Not that anyone cares or anything, but Mitt Romney just took Maine, with McCain coming in second.

NTM

Manic Moran

West Virginia has gone to Huckabee.

NTM

forkassed

Ron paul has picked up 35% of delegates in maine yesterday, and 20% of delegates in west virginia so far today.





FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 4, 2008

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – While most reports about this past weekend’s Maine Caucus focused on the purely symbolic presidential preference poll, in the meaningful race to secure delegates to the state convention Ron Paul is primed to finish second with likely 35 percent of the total delegates.

Delegates to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis are elected by the state delegates. Internal results from 10 of 16 counties, including the largest cities of Portland, South Portland, Lewiston, Auburn, Augusta, Waterville, Bangor, and Brewer, show Ron Paul picking up 215 of 608 State Convention delegates so far reported, or 35%.

“Ron Paul’s strong second place finish in Maine, in which he beat John McCain, is proof that this race is far from over,” said Ron Paul campaign manager Lew Moore. “We’ll continue to battle for every delegate in this wide-open race for the Republican nomination.”

In the presidential preference poll, with 70 percent reporting, Ron Paul is in third place just two percentage points behind John McCain. However, the Maine preference poll is purely a beauty contest, and in the actual election of state delegates the so-called “frontrunner” McCain is far behind Ron Paul.






February 5, 2008

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – In today’s West Virginia Republican State Convention, Republican candidate Ron Paul’s campaign secured three of the 18 national delegates up for grabs.

“Our goal is to secure as many delegates to the national GOP convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul as possible,” said Ron Paul 2008 campaign manager Lew Moore. “Securing three delegates in West Virginia is an important step in that direction. We plan on locking up more delegates before the day ends.”

In an agreement first reported by West Virginia television station WSAZ, the three Ron Paul delegates were secured through an agreement with the Mike Huckabee campaign.

Ron Paul delegates to the state convention swung their support to Huckabee – putting Huckabee over the top – after Congressman Paul was eliminated in the first round of voting. With three national delegates, Ron Paul secured 20 percent of the 18 delegates that were decided at the State Convention.

Manic Moran

The analysis of the Huckabee win in WV is interesting. Apparetly, at the Caucus, it seemed that Romney was going to win. So all the McCain supporters walked across the room and stood with Huckabee.

Voting in my neck of the woods is very heavy. Santa Clara and Placer counties have run out of Democratic ballot sheets, due to higher than expected independent voter turnout. This is likely good for Obama. Obama crowd complaining of 'dirty tricks' in heavy traditional Democrat areas such as San Francisco, reporting independents being told they can't vote in the D Primary, or that they weren't made aware of their eligibility. I must side with the Hillary staffer on that one, the Independents should be perfectly aware of their options, not least it's written in big frigging lettering on the cover of their voting materials.

NTM

Manic Moran

Interesting results. It's far from over yet, this is quite likely going to go down to the Superdelegates.

Good score from Clinton, who now has a reasonable lead in delegates, but certainly not the death-blow she was looking for. It should never have been 'too close to call' in California. Interestingly, Barak managed to win the more liberal regions like San Francisco and Marin, whilst Hillary got the more moderate regions. That would be a good portent for her should she be the Presidential candidate. Barak still got a significant number of delegates out of the day, and a higher number of States. (important to consider in the General, when the smaller States have a bit more weight per capita than the bigger ones). There are still some big States out there, like PA.

In the meantime, McCain's really turning into a runaway leader, when one looks at the delegates he's gained compared to his competitors.

[ETA: I've spent a little while now perusing some of the other results. I really don't know what to make of it, as many of the States that Obama won were absolute massacres. 80% in Idaho? Not a state known for a large black population. Or anything other than snow and potatoes. 75% Alaska and Kansas, 67% Colorado, Minnesota and Georgia. The only equally high score for Clinton in terms of percentage was Arkansas, at 69%, which shouldn't have surprised anyone. (Then again, Romney scored 90% in Utah!) It does seem to uphold Obama's claim to have the widest appeal, though obviously Clinton's having taken the larger states gives quite a boost in delegates, but the way the Democratic primary awards the delegates within a state strongly weighs in favour of landslide wins. I'll be very curious to see what the pundits have to say in the morning, particularly as to how the results could be expected to affect the General against McCain.]

NTM

Ponster

Looks like it'll come down to the superdelegates alright.

Clinton may have the most votes but looking at where OB won and by those margins he looks like the safer bet to beat McCain than Clinton.