The Tips Thread (fancies go elsewhere) - READ MOD NOTE in POST 1 before posting!

Goldcupfav

Willie Mullins horse is now a non runner. Price is now 8/11 not sure its worth a punt at that price now.

abouttobebanned

Moi Desire will beat him.

krustydoyle

The Tip has drifted big time...

abouttobebanned

Jaysus they both are

krustydoyle

abouttobebanned wrote: »

Moi Desire will beat him.

That'll do nicely and it drifted

x PyRo

whitts wrote: »

that bollox came second 5:00 @ yarmouth...

Lol, Clearly another genius on the gambling forum.

Pishogue

Chaps - did anyone hear Aidan O'Brien talk about his Derby prospects. He has won all the big Derby trials i.e. Derrinstown Stud Stakes (Midas Touch), Gallinule (Jan Vermeer) and Dante (Cape Blanco).....but all he wanted to talk about was St Nicholas Abbey. Lump on St Nick I say. He should be long odds on the way the master trainer speaks of him.

Verance

Pishogue wrote: »

Chaps - did anyone hear Aidan O'Brien talk about his Derby prospects. He has won all the big Derby trials i.e. Derrinstown Stud Stakes (Midas Touch), Gallinule (Jan Vermeer) and Dante (Cape Blanco).....but all he wanted to talk about was St Nicholas Abbey. Lump on St Nick I say. He should be long odds on the way the master trainer speaks of him.

No way. He came 6th in the guineas and didn't even look like a good horse, 2/1 is far too short IMO.

x PyRo

He'll win it easily. He's a Derby horse, not a Guineas horse.

murraymarmalade

Pishogue wrote: »

Chaps - did anyone hear Aidan O'Brien talk about his Derby prospects. He has won all the big Derby trials i.e. Derrinstown Stud Stakes (Midas Touch), Gallinule (Jan Vermeer) and Dante (Cape Blanco).....but all he wanted to talk about was St Nicholas Abbey. Lump on St Nick I say. He should be long odds on the way the master trainer speaks of him.

obrien talks up almost all his horses......he thinks stud;)

POINTBREAK

x PyRo wrote: »

He'll win it easily. He's a Derby horse, not a Guineas horse.

He didn't win at Doncaster like a Derby Horse though,and he didn't look like a great horse in the Guineas. He could win, but he's never a 2/1 chance.

SRFC

POINTBREAK wrote: »

He didn't win at Doncaster like a Derby Horse though,and he didn't look like a great horse in the Guineas. He could win, but he's never a 2/1 chance.

lay this beast so if hes too short..be a good value lay for ya

x PyRo

POINTBREAK wrote: »

He didn't win at Doncaster like a Derby Horse though,and he didn't look like a great horse in the Guineas. He could win, but he's never a 2/1 chance.

Wait and see, He'll win it like an odds on shot.

Chriskavo

x PyRo wrote: »

Wait and see, He'll win it like an odds on shot.

Aidan has yet to decide whether to run Jan Vermeer who was very impressive on Sunday, however I just can't get past St. Nicholas Abbey. People seem to forget that he was in a very hot guineas race and might just possibly have needed the run. Expect this horse to come on a ton for that race and win in a similar style to Canford Cliffs. I expect the horse to go into 6/4 on the day so take the 2's now.

Another point - I really believe the guineas race was a prep. run for the big one.

Verance

Chriskavo wrote: »

Aidan has yet to decide whether to run Jan Vermeer who was very impressive on Sunday, however I just can't get past St. Nicholas Abbey. People seem to forget that he was in a very hot guineas race and might just possibly have needed the run. Expect this horse to come on a ton for that race and win in a similar style to Canford Cliffs. I expect the horse to go into 6/4 on the day so take the 2's now.

Another point - I really believe the guineas race was a prep. run for the big one.

Agree with this at least which is why I'll wait until the day to lay the **** out of it! Of course the guineas was a prep run but presumably the other trials were prep runs too. I wouldn't say it was a 'very hot' guineas race either tbh.

Chriskavo

Verance wrote: »

Agree with this at least which is why I'll wait until the day to lay the **** out of it! Of course the guineas was a prep run but presumably the other trials were prep runs too. I wouldn't say it was a 'very hot' guineas race either tbh.

Fair enough but here is what Timeform had to say about that race -

''ST NICHOLAS ABBEY's domination of the ante-post market was fully justified after his sensational win in the Racing Post Trophy on the last of three juvenile outings (unbeaten), and, though undoubtedly a disappointment given the impression made there, it's far too early to be writing him off. Taken in isolation, in fact, this was an encouraging Derby trial (remains clear ante-post favourite at a best-priced 4/1), unable to accelerate with the principals (on firmer ground than he'd faced before) yet seeming to have more to give at the line, and his pedigree does point firmly towards a mile and a quarter and further this year (by Montjeu out of an unraced half-sister to winners up to a mile and three quarters). A nimble sort, he strikes as the type who will take to Epsom.''

I have noticed that O' Brien's horses are beginning to show some form and look to be getting into their stride now. I believe you are a brave man to lay this horse - the hype will be vindicated come derby day.

POINTBREAK

I liked the Journalist in the Daily Mirror who said The trials were about as useful as a Chocolate Fireguard.

Chriskavo

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I liked the Journalist in the Daily Mirror who said The trials were about as useful as a Chocolate Fireguard.

Even so - St. Nicholas Abbey needed that run and IMO it was an ideal prep race, the expected improvement will see the accolades restored to this superstar in the making.

POINTBREAK

Chriskavo wrote: »

Even so - St. Nicholas Abbey needed that run and IMO it was an ideal prep race, the expected improvement will see the accolades restored to this superstar in the making.

As Tom Segal said (paraphrased) "When's the last time a horse that was out of the first 4 home in the guineas won the Derby?"

Chriskavo

POINTBREAK wrote: »

As Tom Segal said (paraphrased) "When's the last time a horse that was out of the first 4 home in the guineas won the Derby?"

Hmmmm...Interesting, I have to admit that I am a little worried about how this horse goes on very fast ground. He will likely get that ground come Derby day, I just can't help but feel that this horse is the real deal. What can you see turning him over?

POINTBREAK

Chriskavo wrote: »

Hmmmm...Interesting, I have to admit that I am a little worried about how this horse goes on very fast ground. He will likely get that ground come Derby day, I just can't help but feel that this horse is the real deal. What can you see turning him over?

I think its substandard. I backed Segals Derby Tip http://pricewiseextra.info/pricewise-derby-tip/

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

Aidan has yet to decide whether to run Jan Vermeer who was very impressive on Sunday, however I just can't get past St. Nicholas Abbey. People seem to forget that he was in a very hot guineas race and might just possibly have needed the run. Expect this horse to come on a ton for that race and win in a similar style to Canford Cliffs. I expect the horse to go into 6/4 on the day so take the 2's now.

Another point - I really believe the guineas race was a prep. run for the big one.

This horse will not go off at 6/4 on the day. If i fancied SNA (which i couldnt at those prices) id be waiting till the day to back him. Sea the Stars went off at 11/4 for the Derby last year after winning the guineas. SNA will drift out in the betting.

And there is no chance that the Guineas was just a prep run. If AOB runs the Fav in the Guineas its not for a prep run for the Derby.

Goldcupfav

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I think its substandard. I backed Segals Derby Tip http://pricewiseextra.info/pricewise-derby-tip/

Im on Azmeel antepost at 40/1. Backed him after he finished 2nd to Chabal at Sandown in April.

whitts

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Im on Azmeel antepost at 40/1. Backed him after he finished 2nd to Chabal at Sandown in April.

when is this

Goldcupfav

whitts wrote: »

when is this

Backed him for the Derby.Its on the 5th of June

whitts

what bet u gonna put on him... do u get ur money back if hes a non-runner in the mean time and dosent run the race>??

Goldcupfav

whitts wrote: »

what bet u gonna put on him... do u get ur money back if hes a non-runner in the mean time and dosent run the race>??

I have 30 ew on him at 40/1.The horse aint 40/1 anymore best price is like 14/1 now. And if he doesnt run than i lose my money.

POINTBREAK

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Im on Azmeel antepost at 40/1. Backed him after he finished 2nd to Chabal at Sandown in April.

That's a great bet. He's around 19 to lay or bet on betfair and will probably get even shorter.

Goldcupfav

POINTBREAK wrote: »

That's a great bet. He's around 19 to lay or bet on betfair and will probably get even shorter.

Was thinking of laying off a bit. Will wait till closer to the race.

POINTBREAK

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Was thinking of laying off a bit. Will wait till closer to the race.

If it was me I would wait until the day of the race and put it in as a "keep" lay in running at around 5 or 6 because I wouldn't mind losing 4 or 5 points on a 40/1 winner and if it gets in the shake up at all you have a good chance your lay will be matched.

deewhy

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Im on Azmeel antepost at 40/1. Backed him after he finished 2nd to Chabal at Sandown in April.

Chabal flopped badly next time out but if you excuse that then the 49's on betfair represents good value. Although not sure he will stay

murraymarmalade

Magellan Straits, 8.35 Hexham, 10/1

Goldcupfav

deewhy wrote: »

Chabal flopped badly next time out but if you excuse that then the 49's on betfair represents good value. Although not sure he will stay

Have to agree with this! I have doubts over Chabal's stamina.The day Chabal beat Azmeel at Sandown they went no early pace plus John Gosden stated that Azmeel was only 80% fit that day then when Azmeel won next time out at Chester he said the horse was only 90% and that he'd have him spot on for the Derby. So I hope there is a little more improvement to come !!

JONJO THE MISER

I like Flying Doctor in the 9.05 at Hexham, 100 on at 2.68.

Chriskavo

And there is no chance that the Guineas was just a prep run. If AOB runs the Fav in the Guineas its not for a prep run for the Derby.

How do you know that? If Aidan runs a horse that finishes out of the top 4 in the guineas and then duly enters him into the Derby it would certainly appear that way. Aidan always had eyes on the Derby for this one , it's so obvious. The horse was not suited by the trip or the ground in the guineas. This is the race he has been laid out for. The fact that his horse was favorite matters for nothing.

Azmeels overall form leaves him with a hell of a lot to find and I can't see him in the picture.

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

How do you know that? If Aidan runs a horse that finishes out of the top 4 in the guineas and then duly enters him into the Derby it would certainly appear that way. Aidan always had eyes on the Derby for this one , it's so obvious. The horse was not suited by the trip or the ground in the guineas. This is the race he has been laid out for. The fact that his horse was favorite matters for nothing.

So your saying that AOB ran an unbeaten colt and put his top jockey in his stable on board knowing that it was just a prep run for the Derby? So all the men at Coolmore agreed to let the horse lose his unbeaten tag just for the sake of a prep run? So one of the greatest flat trainers of all time used the guineas as a prep run for the Derby? So instead of using the Ballysax Stakes, Sandown Classic Trial, Chester Vase, Dee Stakes, Lingfield Derby Trial, Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, The Dante Stakes, Glasgow Stakes or the Predominate Stakes which are all trial races for the Derby and races that AOB has won with horses that then went on to win the Derby he decides to sent an unbeaten colt over a trip that in your words the horse was not suited by just for a prep?? Oh and the ground was good to firm in the guineas so thats pretty much the ground SNA will get at the Derby.

POINTBREAK

Can't fault your logic on that GFC. Besides...as Segal says................ Ballydoyle have saddled 33 losers in the race since High Chaparral won it back in 2002.

Chriskavo

Goldcupfav wrote: »

So your saying that AOB ran an unbeaten colt and put his top jockey in his stable on board knowing that it was just a prep run for the Derby? So all the men at Coolmore agreed to let the horse lose his unbeaten tag just for the sake of a prep run? So one of the greatest flat trainers of all time used the guineas as a prep run for the Derby? So instead of using the Ballysax Stakes, Sandown Classic Trial, Chester Vase, Dee Stakes, Lingfield Derby Trial, Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, The Dante Stakes, Glasgow Stakes or the Predominate Stakes which are all trial races for the Derby and races that AOB has won with horses that then went on to win the Derby he decides to sent an unbeaten colt over a trip that in your words the horse was not suited by just for a prep?? Oh and the ground was good to firm in the guineas so thats pretty much the ground SNA will get at the Derby.

Yes. And I wasn't aware that you had a clairvoyant knowledge of the weather too...amazing! Hope Ryanair have you on their payroll so you can keep them informed as to when the ash cloud is due next ;-). Pity your tip with the 'on the track' info didn't transpire that way last week either. St Nicholas Abbey will romp home - I'm afraid Ezmeel has NO chance.

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

Yes.

So your clearly dont know a thing about horse racing then.

Chriskavo

Goldcupfav wrote: »

So your clearly dont know a thing about horse racing then.

Two words for you - MACKEY'S FORGE LOL!

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

Two words for you - MACKEY'S FORGE LOL!

This tip was given to me by someone on track that was speaking to the trainer Dessie Hughes. Hardly my fault it didnt win?

Chriskavo

And the reason why one can view the guineas as a prep race -

"When he worked at The Curragh a few weeks ago, that was the first time we'd asked him to do anything serious since the Racing Post Trophy. There was nowhere to run him here [as a prep race] and the Craven Stakes was a bit close to the Guineas to be travelling him over, but everything has been smooth building up to this race, so this is where we'll start him off and then see where we go from there. Aidan O' Brien The Guardian 30th April.

I might not have a comprehensive knowledge of the game but I certainly don't force my opinions on others in a know all fashion.

x PyRo

Chriskavo wrote: »

St Nicholas Abbey will romp home

I totally agree. I don't even like the horse but he's built to win the Derby and it will happen.

A son of Montjeu was never going to win the Guineas imo, I don't know if one has but 1m isn't the ideal trip for it. He'll romp home in the Derby imo.

Wouldn't be gone on that Azmeel horse at all either, It hasn't impressed me that much.

Chriskavo

x PyRo wrote: »

I totally agree. I don't even like the horse but he's built to win the Derby and it will happen.

A son of Montjeu was never going to win the Guineas imo, I don't know if one has but 1m isn't the ideal trip for it. He'll romp home in the Derby imo.

Wouldn't be gone on that Azmeel horse at all either, It hasn't impressed me that much.

Absolutely xPyRo - Nice to see someone put forward their opinion in a non patronizing manner. St Nicholas Abbey will win and win handsomely.

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

And the reason why one can view the guineas as a prep race -

"When he worked at The Curragh a few weeks ago, that was the first time we'd asked him to do anything serious since the Racing Post Trophy. There was nowhere to run him here [as a prep race] and the Craven Stakes was a bit close to the Guineas to be travelling him over, but everything has been smooth building up to this race, so this is where we'll start him off and then see where we go from there. Aidan O' Brien The Guardian 30th April.

I might not have a comprehensive knowledge of the game but I certainly don't force my opinions on others in a know all fashion.

The "prep" race he is talking about is a prep race for the guineas. The Craven Stakes is a trial for the guineas. Says nothing about the Derby! I havent forced my opinion on anyone im just stating that SNA was sent over to the guineas to win the race not just for some kind of prep run as you seem to believe. I never said that SNA wouldnt win the race. Also i remember saying that the horse will drift out on the day and that it will be bigger than the 2/1 on offer now imo.

Chriskavo

Goldcupfav wrote: »

So your saying that AOB ran an unbeaten colt and put his top jockey in his stable on board knowing that it was just a prep run for the Derby? So all the men at Coolmore agreed to let the horse lose his unbeaten tag just for the sake of a prep run? So one of the greatest flat trainers of all time used the guineas as a prep run for the Derby? So instead of using the Ballysax Stakes, Sandown Classic Trial, Chester Vase, Dee Stakes, Lingfield Derby Trial, Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, The Dante Stakes, Glasgow Stakes or the Predominate Stakes which are all trial races for the Derby and races that AOB has won with horses that then went on to win the Derby he decides to sent an unbeaten colt over a trip that in your words the horse was not suited by just for a prep?? Oh and the ground was good to firm in the guineas so thats pretty much the ground SNA will get at the Derby.

Reads very patronizingly to me. Oh and what i meant is that the guineas race in hindsight could be looked upon as an ideal prep race for the Derby. The guineas race looked like a good race in my humble opinion as St Nicholas Abbey wasn't beaten far in the end. In that context you could say that the race has benefited his chances for the Derby now.

Chriskavo

So your clearly dont know a thing about horse racing then.

Having an opinion on horse racing shouldn't come to personal insults. I have been backing horses since I was 12 - I had my first win on Mr Donavan in the early 80's. My older brother placed it for me on my birthday. I have been hooked since, I gamble what I can afford and try to get to as many meeting as I can. I love horse racing but don't take it too seriously like some people seem to. Anyway I look forward to seeing how your imperious knowledge of the game reveals itself with your selection - Ezmeel. I will go with St Nicholas Abbey since I ..'' clearly dont know a thing about horse racing..''.

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

Reads very patronizingly to me. Oh and what i meant is that the guineas race in hindsight could be looked upon as an ideal prep race for the Derby. The guineas race looked like a good race in my humble opinion as St Nicholas Abbey wasn't beaten far in the end. In that context you could say that the race has benefited his chances for the Derby now.

Yes the Guineas run was a good run. But to say that it was just a prep run for the Derby isnt true. SNA was sent over to win the Guineas thats my point. Yes the horse will come on for the run as do nearly all horses come on from their 1st runs.

Goldcupfav

Chriskavo wrote: »

Having an opinion on horse racing shouldn't come to personal insults. I have been backing horses since I was 12 - I had my first win on Mr Donavan in the early 80's. My older brother placed it for me on my birthday. I have been hooked since, I gamble what I can afford and try to get to as many meeting as I can. I love horse racing but don't take it too seriously like some people seem to. Anyway I look forward to seeing how your imperious knowledge of the game reveals itself with your selection - Ezmeel. I will go with St Nicholas Abbey since I ..'' clearly dont know a thing about horse racing..''.

Tell me where i have said SNA wont win the Derby? And ive backed Azmeel as 40/1 about what was obviously John Gosdens derby horse this year was major value imo.

Chriskavo

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Tell me where i have said SNA wont win the Derby? And ive backed Azmeel as 40/1 about what was obviously John Gosdens derby horse this year was major value imo.

Tell me where I have said that you said SNA wont win the Derby.? Azmeel - is your selection so stick with that and I will stick with mine.