Betting levels

dsmythy

I was thinking about the bet size people make. Not the whole currency factor but the differing amounts some people may put on all their football bets depending on price and confidence.

I'm always tempted for example if backing say a 7/1 shot in the footie to reduce the size of my stake.

I prefer to bet the exact same stake per football match regardless of price as I feel this will give me a more accurate idea as to how well i'm performing. Also i have developed this philosophy of "If you really think it's value you'll have no problem putting your usual stake on it." Be it 1/3 or 100/1.

In the horses i won't put any money down unless it's a 20 euro bet. If i'm unhappy about putting the bet down then I don't do it as it is clear i don't 100% believe it is value

Do others out there feel that it would be silly to place a strong bet on a 100/1 shot rather than going lower stakes to minimise loss if you truly believe the 100/1 is truly a massive price?

lolkelly

dsmythy wrote: »

I was thinking about the bet size people make. Not the whole currency factor but the differing amounts some people may put on all their football bets depending on price and confidence.

I'm always tempted for example if backing say a 7/1 shot in the footie to reduce the size of my stake.

I prefer to bet the exact same stake per football match regardless of price as I feel this will give me a more accurate idea as to how well i'm performing. Also i have developed this philosophy of "If you really think it's value you'll have no problem putting your usual stake on it." Be it 1/3 or 100/1.

In the horses i won't put any money down unless it's a 20 euro bet. If i'm unhappy about putting the bet down then I don't do it as it is clear i don't 100% believe it is value

Do others out there feel that it would be silly to place a strong bet on a 100/1 shot rather than going lower stakes to minimise loss if you truly believe the 100/1 is truly a massive price?

Thats completely flawed thinking IMO. I cant think of many 100/1 shots that i believed were going to win as much as i did a 1/3 shot. If you think a 100/1 shot should be 25/1 or even 50/1 then i would fancy a small wager. I wouldnt back the usual 5%/10% of my bank though! For such bets i would adjust to 1 or 2%

dsmythy

lolkelly wrote: »

Thats completely flawed thinking IMO. I cant think of many 100/1 shots that i believed were going to win as much as i did a 1/3 shot. If you think a 100/1 shot should be 25/1 or even 50/1 then i would fancy a small wager. I wouldnt back the usual 5%/10% of my bank though! For such bets i would adjust to 1 or 2%

Now i don't mean a 5% job. I mean if every bet i do is say 2% including the 1/3 shots out there then if a 100/1 shot came along i'd still go 2% rather than drop to 1% or up it to 5%.

IrishMike

Every bet is different.
I dont buy the philosophy that if its good enough to put a E10 then it should be good enough to put E100.
There are no dead certs

lolkelly

But you cant honestly say OP that you know of bets of 100/1 that you would consider more likely to win than a 1/3 shot.

Even if your saying that the 100/1 shot represents value, you probably still think that its a 50/1 or 25/1 for example! Thats still a strong possibilty that it wont win hence the reduced bet

IrishMike

If a 1/3 shot represents the same value to the OP as a 100/1 shot then why not pick
100/1 winners the whole time?
I have trouble finding odds on winners at times not to mention value bets at long odds.

dsmythy

lolkelly wrote: »

But you cant honestly say OP that you know of bets of 100/1 that you would consider more likely to win than a 1/3 shot.

Even if your saying that the 100/1 shot represents value, you probably still think that its a 50/1 or 25/1 for example! Thats still a strong possibilty that it wont win hence the reduced bet

No no no. That would be the day when i got a 100/1 shot like that

I see where your coming from. But in the long run if you think something has a 50/1 chance your saying it will win every 51 times. If you were always doing 5% on each bet then i can see the logic of dropping to just under 2%.

But if i'm doing nothing but 2%ers on all my bets then i wouldn't drop to say 0.5% for the bet. I might drop it by a small amount to cover my bankroll if i was doing nothing but estimated 50/1 shots for some reason. But i'd never jump up and down with my bet sizes depending on situation. Only the odds.

ravima

why not bet to a specified return. how much do you want to win? than set yout stake to win that sum.

IrishMike

ravima wrote: »

why not bet to a specified return. how much do you want to win? than set yout stake to win that sum.

thats what i try to do
try to make e125 a week, doesnt sound a lot but to do it consistently is extremely tough

dsmythy

IrishMike wrote: »

thats what i try to do
try to make e125 a week, doesnt sound a lot but to do it consistently is extremely tough

Fair play man. I only win an average of 35.28 per week at this moment for 22 weeks recorded. I want 50

ODD-JOB

irishmike,......you never signed off

Mike.

IrishMike

Lol i think mike65 has the copyright on that odd-job

ODD-JOB

oh yeah !!!
sorry.................. i always find it funnily formal when i see him sign off!

Odd