Weekend Premier League Footie

PIMPHO · 08-01-2008 11:49am #1

Without the Big 4 teams, what team would you pick to win this weekend and why?

Aston Villa

V

Reading
12 Jan 15:00

Derby

V

Wigan
12 Jan 15:00

Everton

V

Man. City
12 Jan 15:00

West Ham

V

Fulham
12 Jan 15:00

Sunderland

V

Portsmouth
13 Jan 13:30

Bolton

V

Blackburn
13 Jan 16:00

jameshayes · 08-01-2008 12:05pm

too early to think about the money, lets see if I can survive the week first!

ArmaniJeanss · 08-01-2008 12:48pm

PIMPHO wrote: »

Without the Big 4 teams, what team would you pick to win this weekend and why?

This is a pointless question on a Gambling Forum.
Too few people here seem to realise that in gambling its all about the price and who you expect to win is almost completely irrelevant.

e.g., I'd expect WestHam to beat Fulham but if some bookie puts up 8/1 for Fulham then I'll take that 8/1.

PIMPHO · 08-01-2008 1:48pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is a pointless question on a Gambling Forum.
Too few people here seem to realise that in gambling its all about the price and who you expect to win is almost completely irrelevant.

e.g., I'd expect WestHam to beat Fulham but if some bookie puts up 8/1 for Fulham then I'll take that 8/1.

How is this a pointless question? I'm asking for people's opinions on a set of fixtures excluding the Big 4 and the reasons behind their choice. My bet is to choose a winning team each week excluding the Big 4. Where else would this thread go since it's related to a bet?!

E.g I'm rather confident on WHam beating Fulham due to Fulham's poor away record.

prendy · 08-01-2008 1:50pm

i think derby home against wigan...derby are improving (slightly) and are overdue a result.id also have everton at home to citeh.

ArmaniJeanss · 08-01-2008 2:09pm

PIMPHO wrote: »

How is this a pointless question?

Because who you expect/think will win is not important when it comes to gambling. It should be 100% about the price and it shocks me that so few people on this forum get this point.

Continually trying to pick winners and backing them at any price is not a strategy that you should be partaking in, and will kill your bankroll longterm.

To continue with our WHam/Fulham example where we both expect WestHsm to win...

If personA backs Fulham at 8s and personB backs WestHam at say 1/2, and WestHam win 2-0, who will be happier with their bet?

Dodge · 08-01-2008 2:15pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Because who you expect/think will win is not important when it comes to gambling. It should be 100% about the price and it shocks me that so few people on this forum get this point.

+1

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 08-01-2008 2:23pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Because who you expect/think will win is not important when it comes to gambling. It should be 100% about the price and it shocks me that so few people on this forum get this point.

Continually trying to pick winners and backing them at any price is not a strategy that you should be partaking in, and will kill your bankroll longterm.

To continue with our WHam/Fulham example where we both expect WestHsm to win...

If personA backs Fulham at 8s and personB backs WestHam at say 1/2, and WestHam win 2-0, who will be happier with their bet?

.

No disrespect Armani but some of your thinking is flawed, prices are very important but winning and picking winners is obviously the key to success. Simple really if you are not picking winners your are picking losers and therfor loosing money.
There are reasons why there is long odds placed on a team or an event your example of who would be happier the guy loosing the fulham bet at 8/1 or the guy winning his bet at 1/2 is ridiculous.

I agree its about getting the right price but more importantly its about getting a return on your money

jameshayes · 08-01-2008 2:29pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Because who you expect/think will win is not important when it comes to gambling. It should be 100% about the price and it shocks me that so few people on this forum get this point.

I disagree.

If a team wins you make a profit providing you backed them of course.

EG. If your bankroll is €100. Arsenal v Birmingham. You bet on Arsenal to win at 1.16 because of common agreement and statistical back up. You come out of the bet with a bankroll of €116.67. Thats 16% up. What bank can give you 16%?

Dodge · 08-01-2008 2:31pm

Felicity Squeaking Self-incrimination wrote: »

I agree its about getting the right price but more importantly its about getting a return on your money

But if you back every 7/2 shot at 8/1 you'll end up being more succesful than those back regardless of price.

I'm not averse to lumping on an odds on shot but the real question should be "is this a value bet?" If you think West Ham are value at 1/2 to beat Fulham, you might want to rethink this gambling lark. If Man U are 1/2 to beat fulham at home, I'd be all over that bet

ArmaniJeanss · 08-01-2008 2:39pm

Felicity Squeaking Self-incrimination wrote: »

.

Your example of who would be happier the guy loosing the fulham bet at 8/1 or the guy winning his bet at 1/2 is ridiculous.

I havn't looked at any prices yet, but I would say that a fair price for this game would be 5/6 WestHam, 9/2 Fulham, 5/2 Draw (roughly 100% book).
So yeah, ridiculous as it may sound to you, I would be far happier if I could get 8/1 Fulham even if they lost, rather than backing WestHam at any long odds-on price.

I understand what you are saying about the need for picking winners.
However it is obviously not possible to pick winners all the time, therefore the return we do get from our winners must cover our losses. Mathematically this is only possible if we are getting value prices on all our bets, that is, better than the true odds. Merely wanting winners (as the OP seemed to) is poorhouse strategy.

PIMPHO · 08-01-2008 2:39pm

Lads ye are over analysing this thread! I have a bet with some work colleagues and friends to pick a winning team each weekend exluding the Big 4. Simple as that. I just wanted people's opinions and the team they think that will win this weekend, that's all.

In understand what a "value bet" is and agree that backing Wham to beat Fulham at 1/2 is not a value bet but as mentioned already, I'm not looking at a value bet or the odds; just a winning team excluding the Big 4.

Mods close this thread if you want as some people here are way too sensitive.

THanks

jameshayes · 08-01-2008 3:00pm

PIMPHO wrote: »

Mods close this thread if you want as some people here are way too sensitive.

:eek: really?

ArmaniJeanss · 08-01-2008 3:07pm

PIMPHO wrote: »

Lads ye are over analysing this thread! I have a bet with some work colleagues and friends to pick a winning team each weekend exluding the Big 4. Simple as that. I just wanted people's opinions and the team they think that will win this weekend, that's all.

In understand what a "value bet" is and agree that backing Wham to beat Fulham at 1/2 is not a value bet but as mentioned already, I'm not looking at a value bet or the odds; just a winning team excluding the Big 4.

Mods close this thread if you want as some people here are way too sensitive.

THanks

Fair enough, maybe it would be slightly better if you'd posted it on the Soccer Forum, as by posting it here I assumed you were looking at backing teams from a fixed odds viewpoint, rather than a winner at any price as part of a contest. Hence my replies.

In this sort of competition you are talking about, its probably a good idea to go for the shortest price home team on the coupon, likely either Villa or WestHam. Good Luck.

dsmythy · 08-01-2008 3:11pm

PIMPHO wrote: »

Lads ye are over analysing this thread! I have a bet with some work colleagues and friends to pick a winning team each weekend exluding the Big 4. Simple as that. I just wanted people's opinions and the team they think that will win this weekend, that's all.

In understand what a "value bet" is and agree that backing Wham to beat Fulham at 1/2 is not a value bet but as mentioned already, I'm not looking at a value bet or the odds; just a winning team excluding the Big 4.

Mods close this thread if you want as some people here are way too sensitive.

THanks

I presume then that price doesn't matter it's pure winners that matter in your friendly competition?

If that's the case i'd say Aston Villa to beat Reading should be your pick. Why? Because the bookies have them as the most likely to win in a game outside the big four. The bookies know better than anybody who's got the best chance.

This only applies if it's just a winner you want to win this week and a big price gets you now extra points.

PIMPHO · 08-01-2008 4:11pm

Cheers all for their input. I'm undecided between Villa or Wham for the win.......

Pj! · 08-01-2008 6:16pm

Lots of sense in this thread.

jameshayes · 08-01-2008 6:19pm

Forky wrote: »

Lots of sense in this thread.

Hate to disappoint but there is not much sense in any thread.

raheny red · 08-01-2008 6:39pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

e.g., I'd expect WestHam to beat Fulham but if some bookie puts up 8/1 for Fulham then I'll take that 8/1.

Just go into a bookies that enters their sports bet into manual, chance your arm with taking a better price and see how it goes, worth a shot

mike65 · 08-01-2008 6:46pm

Just to answer the OP question - Pompey to beat Sunderland with -1 handicap. Form guide suggets a decent bet with handicap

Mike.

Keano · 08-01-2008 6:52pm

Where is that new mod when you need him!

I fancy a West Ham win

Pj! · 08-01-2008 7:08pm

Well we can add some here and there anyway jameshayes.

jameshayes wrote: »

I disagree.

If a team wins you make a profit providing you backed them of course.

EG. If your bankroll is €100. Arsenal v Birmingham. You bet on Arsenal to win at 1.16 because of common agreement and statistical back up. You come out of the bet with a bankroll of €116.67. Thats 16% up. What bank can give you 16%?

Thats all well and good, you are indeed 16% up on that bet.
Lets say Arsenal and Birmingham play this match 100 times (for simplicity sake).
You have backed Arsenal because of 'common agreement and statistical back up', fair enough. They have a better chance of winning and will win more often, fair enough.
But at the end of the day, after you're 100 bets, 'common agreement and statistical back up' will have sweet feck all to do with how much money you have in your pocket.
You'll almost certainly have lost money.

You know where i'm going with this. If you had of got value odds on Birmingham in your bet, even realising that they have a less chance of winning than Arsenal, at the end of the day, after your 100 bets, you'll have a few quid winnings in your pocket.

Thats how I first got it, always thinking about the 100 bets. You get the hang of it after a while. All you have to look for is good odds, 6/1 where you think it should be 4/1, 20/1 where you think it should be 16/1, 6/5 where it should be 1/1 etc. etc.
Forget about what team you think will win. Not many, if any, team will win those '100 games' (ie. no such thing as a sure thing). Even the outsiders get their percentage of wins.
Bet accordingly!

Weekend Premier League Footie

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