Jan-Feb : The model search for more cold

darkman2

UKMO have issued their first warnings.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

And...
Lots of snow for Mayo!
Flurries elsewhere.
The shaded white indicates cover and Mayo seems to have something in common with the north of scotland

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

And...
Lots of snow for Mayo!
Flurries elsewhere.
The shaded white indicates cover and Mayo seems to have something in common with the north of scotland

Seems to me to be a direct reference to the fax chart for Friday. There will be snow over much of the country at the end of the week. Just a question of nailing down troughs and widespread shower activity. Thursday night could well be interesting aswell.

Paddy.1

The white over parts of the west indicates substantial snow cover. Strange how they don't have this covering over the north of Ireland as they have warnings out for chaos and such like on their website for this region.

Just made a poem about BB's quote:

Snow for Mayo, ho ho ho,
Mayo for snow, la la la,
Mayo, Mayo, Mayo,
Snow, Snow, Snow.
Weeeeeeeee.
Snow
for
Mayo. (repeat 114 times)

Hope you like it.:)

ch750536

Maybe I'm being a noob, but nobody has mentioned the moist air coming in from the atlantic on top of this. Reading the charts, it seems that Sat eve is when the atlantic pushes in with rain. What if the temps don't rise, wouldn't this mean a 'lot' of snow?

Paddy.1

ch750536 wrote: »

Maybe I'm being a noob, but nobody has mentioned the moist air coming in from the atlantic on top of this. Reading the charts, it seems that Sat eve is when the atlantic pushes in with rain. What if the temps don't rise, wouldn't this mean a 'lot' of snow?

Potentially, yes. I think saturday night is progged to be very frosty as a ridge moves in, I don't know if there is a front due on Sun (haven't checked the forecast) but if there is, could bring quite a lot of transistory snow, something like the beginning of January.

I don't paddy.
I await the easterly

Gonzo

looking at metcheck it seems that most of the east is gonna stay very cold, dry and sunny for the cold spell with a band of sleet turning to rain on sunday with temperatures higher by sunday/monday but still 'cold'. For western areas especially donegal they have lots of snow showers and the band of sleet crossing on sunday staying as snow in many hilly areas with more wintry showers on monday.

Ive a feeling what they have predicted has a fair chance of working out. the bbc's lunchtime forecast shows a very similar pattern to that one with eastern Ireland largely missing out on the snow unfortunately, the same go's for the south eastern half of England and parts of east scotland.

So far North Galway, Mayo, Leitrium, Sligo, Donegal, Northern Ireland, Northern Wales, North West England and the Western half of Scotland looks like the main firing line for all the snow.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

looking at metcheck it seems that most of the east is gonna stay very cold, dry and sunny for the cold spell with a band of sleet turning to rain on sunday with temperatures higher by sunday/monday but still 'cold'. For western areas especially donegal they have lots of snow showers and the band of sleet crossing on sunday staying as snow in many hilly areas with more wintry showers on monday.

Ive a feeling what they have predicted has a fair chance of working out. the bbc's lunchtime forecast shows a very similar pattern to that one with eastern Ireland largely missing out on the snow unfortunately, the same go's for the south eastern half of England and parts of east scotland.

So far North Galway, Mayo, Leitrium, Sligo, Donegal, Northern Ireland, Northern Wales, North West England and the Western half of Scotland looks like the main firing line for all the snow.

Hey Gonzo, your right these places will be the worst affected but i where your wrong is restricting the snow risk to these areas.

One cannot underestimate the instability of the flow, 850hpa's are sub -12c over the warm ocean north of Ireland, 500hpa temperatures are sub -40c..

In any run of the mill northerly i would agree that the east (Dublin) would only see snow if a rogue showers pushed far south, but in this situation there will be 1 more likely 2 disturbances moving down the country during Friday - Saturday, and all the ingredients are there for the formation of commas and polar lows.

Supercell

Rather than have two seperate posts esentially about the same thing, can any posts about this weeks cold snap please be posted here.

Any discussion post this weekends cold snap ..such as for example, the easterly in FI are of course welcome