This Weeks Snow Risk

ninebeanrows

Well amidst all this mild weather, there are expected to be one or two blips this week which could lead to some snowfall in places.

#1
Tomorrow evening and night is beginning to look interesting for Northern Ireland with a sliver of cold air wrapping around some very heavy precipitation.

Heavy snow is likely in places up north, it will start as rain and readily turn to snow towards nightfall, temperatures could dip very low on Monday night perhaps down to -5c across Ulster, this risk may spread into North Leinster (Louth, North Meath).

#2
Then on Thursday a swathe of cold air will journey across the Atlantic, quite intense for a regular westerly flow, it will be so cold due to the intense cold in the US and across Greenland, Newfoundland.

850hpa as low as -7c in places with widespread wintry showers of hail/sleet and snow. Western areas could see some appreication of snow!

After that its the heat is on, but in such awful synoptics i don't think we could juice any more snow potential than this week!

The Synoptics are really terrible!

yeah before he bashes me on the head for the my snow is better than your snow tete a tete paddy1 should see something nice from Thursday should it pan out like it is looking

lucernarian

Excellent. I won't be home tomorrow night, but it will still be interesting to see what happens at home. After the very localised event in November 2006, I'll be pretty hopeful. 150m ASL makes a big difference in these situations.

Snowbie

Yes i agree about Thursday, the returning polar maritime air has some bumf to it.Worth watching of course.

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

yeah before he bashes me on the head for the my snow is better than your snow tete a tete paddy1 should see something nice from Thursday should it pan out like it is looking

A strange comment.:cool: To be honest I don't have much faith in getting anything snow wise from this thursday's event. Pressure is too high for any big showers to develop I think, at least this far south. If anyplace is going to get anything it would be the North and North east I would think.

BBC rainfall graph suggest snow for the north as well on monday/tuesday. Could be interesting up there. You never know BB, if that little low swings south enough before it leaves the country, you squeeze a little something out of it.

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

The Synoptics are really terrible!

I totally agree. They almost don't look right.

ch750536

BBC news just had substantial snowfall for all on thurs.

maquiladora

MET forecast :

Wednesday night and Thursday will be very cold with fairly widespread showers. Many of the showers will be wintry, with falls of hail, sleet and even snow.

Supercell

Was snowing here lightly this morning heading off to work. Nothing settled though as it was about 3°C roughly at the time.

Tomorrow night and into Thursday could be interesting in the west, maybe even an odd rogue shower might make it to the east but small chance of that unless we get something more substantial develop, but hope springs eternal!

ch750536

Have a flight to catch 7am Thurs from Shannon. Possible snow in?

Danno

Jean Byrne had a good forecast tonight. Though tomorow night was omitted from the charts, She did show the snow showers starting on the extreme west coastal areas later tomorrow.

Cornilius

I don't understand why the boards are so quiet there is obviously a good chance of some decents fall of snow judging from Jeans forecat this evening, along with a weather warning of hail, sleet and snow especially over the northern half of the country! I suppose on met eireanns record of snow forecasting in the past you can never be so sure, but then again would it have been a different forecast if it had of been Gerry?

ninebeanrows

Cornilius wrote: »

I don't understand why the boards are so quiet there is obviously a good chance of some decents fall of snow judging from Jeans forecat this evening, along with a weather warning of hail, sleet and snow especially over the northern half of the country! I suppose on met eireanns record of snow forecasting in the past you can never be so sure, but then again would it have been a different forecast if it had of been Gerry?

Well there will be widespread wintry showers Wednesday night in to Thursday PM, but i can't see any serious snow, maybe a couple of inches on high ground in the west.

Gonzo

yeah most boards users here are in east, and we will see very little if any snow at all from this, it shud be mostly sunny here with maybe a few light well scattered wintry showers, certainly nothing like what happened at the start of January. From Galway city to Derry would be were the main snow risk is, mostly high ground areas and parts of Northern Ireland, the cold snap is alos going to be a 1 day affair with mild weather back in full swing by dawn on Friday morning.

ch750536

Indeed, the east is the centre of the planet of course....

However, we can all give opinion still, regardless of where you live.

lucernarian

Less of the sour grapes please:)

People are always going to prioritise where they live. I ramped up the event in January a while before it happened, though it was based on a gut feeling and some inaccurate predictions. There tended to be a loss of interest from the Dubs, especially when it was almost entirely snowing heavily north of the Co. Dublin border!:D And no one has disagreed about giving opinion on forecasts for any area of Ireland, let alone the west.

For my part, I think there won't be any meanignful organised precipitation that will fall as snow on Thursday for most of the west coast. I'd fancy Donegal's chances as per usual in these setups though.

Paddy.1

Well living in the west, the hot spot of Celtic Gloom, I still think that this is going to be a non event, and at best, fleeting. I think that an area from Mayo to Belfast northwards will probably bear the brunt on Thursday. I hope to be wrong. I would prefer if the country as a whole got something out of it.

Anyway. Looking more positive in the models with regards longer term. Hopefully it will pay off eventually.

Snowbie

TBC wrote:

There tended to be a loss of interest from the Dubs, especially when it was almost entirely snowing heavily north of the Co. Dublin border

Oi,i had to travel to see the snow so the interest was definitely there:p

ch750536

BBC has downgraded to a possibility

Cornilius

So not worth getting excited about. The met have mentioned accumilation and a risk of thunder surely some parts of the west could expect a hammering! Could these showers be widespread due to the strong winds?

Gonzo

met eireann giving the snow risk mainly for the west + northwest tonight and tomorrow morning, it will turn milder during the day with rain in the north. Unlikely to be anything in the East or South were it should stay dry.

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Well living in the west, the hot spot of Celtic Gloom, I still think that this is going to be a non event, and at best, fleeting. I think that an area from Mayo to Belfast northwards will probably bear the brunt on Thursday. I hope to be wrong. I would prefer if the country as a whole got something out of it.

Anyway. Looking more positive in the models with regards longer term. Hopefully it will pay off eventually.

what is a non event to you? i'll be satisfied with 2-3 inches of lying snow. also, in the West, more often than not, these events are fleeting - at least where i live.

rc28

Meteireann have a warning out; 3-5cm in Ulster and Connaught tonight.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Supercell

rc28 wrote: »

Meteireann have a warning out; 3-5cm in Ulster and Connaught tonight.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Seems a bit optimistic to me, temps in the NW are still at 9°C
Sodden ground, strong winds, does not 3-5 cm accumulations make.

Snow here in the east has gone to a possibility close to 0% imho

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

what is a non event to you? i'll be satisfied with 2-3 inches of lying snow. also, in the West, more often than not, these events are fleeting - at least where i live.

They are more often than not fleeting in any part of Ireland away from high ground I would imagine. I too would be statisfied with 2-3 inches of snow, but the reason I think this would be a non event is that I cant see 2cm falling not mind 2 inches!! Temps here is still 4.8c, although falling very slowly with occasional squally showers. Nothing too dramatic, yet anyway.

What part of the West are you in anyway?

Cornilius

I watched Evelyns late night forecast and she mentioned snow several tmes, there were also dark snow symbols over the east tonight and again tomorrow somehow I cant see this happening? Is Evelyn a bit optimistic?

nacho libre

Cornilius wrote: »

I watched Evelyns late night forecast and she mentioned snow several tmes, there were also dark snow symbols over the east tonight and again tomorrow somehow I cant see this happening? Is Evelyn a bit optimistic?

the odd shower might get through to the east but the frequent showers will be in the west and north west

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

They are more often than not fleeting in any part of Ireland away from high ground I would imagine. I too would be statisfied with 2-3 inches of snow, but the reason I think this would be a non event is that I cant see 2cm falling not mind 2 inches!! Temps here is still 4.8c, although falling very slowly with occasional squally showers. Nothing too dramatic, yet anyway.

What part of the West are you in anyway?

I'm in Mayo.

Paddy.1

Cornilius wrote: »

I watched Evelyns late night forecast and she mentioned snow several tmes, there were also dark snow symbols over the east tonight and again tomorrow somehow I cant see this happening? Is Evelyn a bit optimistic?

She tends overly optimistic alright, although she can make the most boring forecast interesting I think. She is a national icon. Anyone who says in a forecast that "the weather is in a bad mood" is ok by my books.:)

Temp actually rising here again with approach of shower. But Who knows what may happen as we all sleep.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm in Mayo.

Nice one. Mayo, another hotspot of Celtic Gloom. Well I think you might have a better chance of getting anything tonight than I would in Galway. Enjoy if you do.

Danno

The buoy reports are interesting - M6 - About 210 miles waaay out west in the middle of the gulf stream is reporting 5.5c and 1.7dp. http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

Not a bad report for such a location. Hopefully this airmass hits before 8am