February 2008 Temperature Competition

Paddy.1

I thought it might be interesting to start a thread that will allow us to monitor the temperatures of Ireland for the month of February. And also to allow us a guess as to what we think might happen regards this before the month arrives:

The way I think it should be done is to add and average out the mean temperatures of the 13 main synoptical stations around Ireland at the end of the month and compare them to the 1961-1990 mean of the 13 main observation sites.

This fun compitition might also help us better understand the temp profile of our nation month by month.

For example, here is the list of Met Eireann station mean temps for February(61-90) Starting with the highest Feb mean temp to lowest:

Valentia: 6.6°C

Rosslare: 5.9°C

Shannon: 5.6°C

Belmullet: 5.4°C

Malin Head: 5.2°C

Dublin Airport: 5.0°C

Cork Airport: 4.8°C

Birr: 4.8°C

Kilkenny: 4.8°C

Casement: 4.6°C

Claremorris: 4.5°C

Clones: 4.2°C

Mullingar: 4.2°C

The above are the mean (61-90) February Temperatures for each of the 13 main synoptical stations in the Republic. When averaged out, the result is 5.1°C, the "Central Irish Mean" for February, so to speak.

So would anyone hazard a guess for what Feb 2008 combined mean might be?

I personally think that Feb this year will come in around or slightly above average at 5.9°C.

Go on, have a shot. Will sum up all takers on the 1st Feb, and post results as soon as Met Eireann sum up figures during the first part of March.

Bear in mind that coastal stations tend to be milder; while at the same time, it may be cooler in the east for example, and milder in the west, which would still make an average outcome likely.

Any takers?

ch750536

I'll take 5.1

ta.

Trogdor

Good Idea:)
I'll go for 4.0C

kindredspirit

I'll guess 5.5.

nacho libre

5.6°c

Snowbie

I'll say a 6.0c

We need 4 weeks of no interferece from the atlantic to have a below avg and several ice days and i dont see this happening. Another words i think more mild than cold can be expected.

Danno

Nice idea Paddy.1

but, Central Irish temperature should be the averages between: Clones, Birr, Mullingar. Using all stations is not central. So, 4.4c would be a better CIT (Central Ireland Temperature)

Using all stations, I go for 6.3c
Using the three above, I go for 5.7c

Paddy.1

Cheers Guys, Thanks for the participation.Was a bit scared of opening this thread up to be honest:o. Danno I agree that it a Central Irish Mean should include just inland stations, so that was a bad choice of words on my part to be honest. Not sure what you could call the inclusion of all stations:) I will say "overall Irish temps" from now on.
I will take your guess on this, as it includes our nation as a whole (well not including NI although perhaps I should include them next month if I get a bit more organised:) Will take a vote on this maybe?

I just think it would be good as it might give us all a better understanding of the month by month temp averages for Ireland and to see how the current climate might be differing(if at all) from the 61-90 period that Met Eireann still use in terms of 'normal'.

Well what I will do is chart all your entry's and do up a chart before the end of the month and post it up here, so we know where we all are:) and from then on I will give a week by week account (although I more than welcome you all doing this as well)

Hopeing myself it will come in cooler than average, but the azores high dosen't look like moving very much, as is the recent trend, so feck it!

Good luck to all! Will leave entries open til the 1st day in Feb, so anymore takers have a go..

rc28

I'll go with 5.4c:)

Weather BOFH

I'm going to jinx any chance of a cold month and go with 4.9C!

Paddy.1

nemonoid wrote: »

I'm going to jinx any chance of a cold month and go with 4.9C!

You're in Nemonoid.

I think the month is already jinxed so don't worry about it:)

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

You're in Nemonoid.

I think the month is already jinxed so don't worry about it:)

btw, is there a source (like the yesterdays weather page on Met.ie) that shows the mean temp day by day so we can keep the CIT(or whatever we're calling it;)) updated or will we only find out the mean at the end of the month?

Paddy.1

trogdor wrote: »

btw, is there a source (like the yesterdays weather page on Met.ie) that shows the mean temp day by day so we can keep the CIT(or whatever we're calling it;)) updated or will we only find out the mean at the end of the month?

Here you go Peter:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp

Apologies if you know of that page already. It is a good guide to keep a daily tab on how the accumulated daily average builds up (or down) for the current month.

Just click on any station, and it will give figures on the current months mean up to midnight the night before. The overall Irish average we will have to add ourselves at the beginning of March. But the above link should give us an idea how things are going.
Also the above link is a good way of keeping tabs on rainfall etc.

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Here you go Peter:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp

Apologies if you know of that page already. It is a good guide to keep a daily tab on how the accumulated daily average builds up (or down) for the current month.

Just click on any station, and it will give figures on the current months mean up to midnight the night before. The overall Irish average we will have to add ourselves at the beginning of March. But the above link should give us an idea how things are going.
Also the above link is a good way of keeping tabs on rainfall etc.

Ah, ok. Thanks, I thought those climate pages were only updated monthly or even yearly.

lucernarian

I just about think it'll go below average, barely:) Therefore I think a good round 5 degrees celcius is the way to go.

I think it'll be a mild one 6.1

Paddy.1

Entries up to 27th Jan:


Sorry about bad quality of chart, will sharpen it up when entries are complete.
So far, 3 entries go for an around average outcome, 4 for slightly above, 3 for way above while just one positive thinker goes for way below. Interesting differentiation evolving!

Further entries will be added up to 1st Feb 08. Have a go..

Paddy.1

Ok, will do up a final chart for this later, anybody else who wants to hazard a guess before the end of today, go for it, you have nothing to lose, (or win), it is just a bit of fun. Good luck everyone.

Damomanye

aw, too late to enter?

ah Well. i would have guessed 5.7c.

Trogdor

Overall Irish average(excluding Birr, no temp stats for some reason) from yesterday is 2.1C. Just thought I'd say that I'm closest now as I probably won't be able to say it again apart from the next 2 days or so:o

Danno

Nice work Paddy.1

Trogdor

Looks great Paddy:), where did you get the figures for Birr and Rosslare from. They don't seem to be on the monthly data page?

Paddy.1

Cheers for comments guys, yeah Excel is a great program, but limited on design. Does the job though.

Trogdor you are right about Birr and Rosslare figures, so what I did was put Rosslare down at average as to not effect average total of other stations too much; and Birr figures I used was the average between Shannon and Kilkenny as it seems to be half way between them (so that figure is probably wrong).

I should have stated this earlier, but will highlight similar errors in future. By the way, feel free to update figures when ever you please, it will be deadly to have someone to share the burden!!:o:)

Mothman

For Birr, put in Kilkenny figures for the interim, they're usually quite similar.
Shannon is usually a degree warmer.

Rosslare is more difficult though for now I'd put in a figure below average as every station is below

Damomanye

nice one!, this should be a laugh

Trogdor

Overall Irish Mean now 3.7C.
Quick graph, I'm stll in the lead:p

EDIT: Great minds think alike:D

Paddy.1

trogdor wrote: »

Overall Irish Mean now 3.7C.
Quick graph, I'm stll in the lead:p

EDIT: Great minds think alike:D

Deadly Peter, a fantastic graph, a great and detailed way to see the trend. Keep it going!!!:)

nacho libre

with this aera of high pressure over the weekend, which could well last for a week or two, there is litte chance it'll be above 5.6 now. i think it's between the first four(trogdor, nemoniod, tobeconfirmed and ch7507536) as to who will win.

kindredspirit

nacho libre wrote: »

with this aera of high pressure over the weekend, which could well last for a week or two, there is litte chance it'll be above 5.6 now. i think it's between the first four(trogdor, nemoniod, tobeconfirmed and ch7507536) as to who will win.

Don't panic Nacho Libre. I'm right behind you!

Vidunder

Cork colder than Dublin... it always surprises me. Must be the extended medium cloud cover.

Trogdor

Updated graph