February 2008 Temperature Competition

Mothman

In case its not clear, the bottom graph is a chart of the daily maxes and mins. Yesterday, the mean max fell by 4C versus the previous day, with Valentia being only station into double figures. it was coolest day since the 2nd.

Paddy.1

Interesting charts MM, I wonder has the Feb temp peaked, or is there more to come...

Anyway Irish overall mean for Feb (up to 14th) is now 6.7c*, a drop of 1.2c since the 13th. Danno still on tops.

Brayweather forecast graph here.

*edit, Claremorris figure missing so used my own feb mean for now of just under 6.1c.

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Interesting charts MM, I wonder has the Feb temp peaked, or is there more to come...

Anyway Irish overall mean for Feb (up to 14th) is now 6.7c*, a drop of 1.2c since the 13th. Danno still on tops.

Brayweather forecast graph here.

*edit, Claremorris figure missing so used my own feb mean for now of just under 6.1c.

And the updated trend, Claremorris data still not in

Mothman

Overall temperature mean now 6.5C

Clones data missing, but it won't change mean.

Rain and sun charts updated above

Trogdor

Mothman wrote: »

Overall temperature mean now 6.5C

Clones data missing, but it won't change mean.

Rain and sun charts updated above

Clones data could change the overall temp if it's fallen by 0.4C or more which some stations have, but yeh probably wouldn't change it. Great charts btw Mothman.

Supercell

Fascinating stuff, very professional charts too, well done to all concerned.
I think temperatures usually start to rise sharply in the second half of the month so the final average could be well above normal. That said the current spell of cool days and frosty nights should bring it down a bit again.

Trogdor

Overall Irish Mean now 6.3C and still falling, every station* fell yesterday by 0.1C or 0.2C. Danno could slip from the top in the next day or two.

*Clones and Rosslare data missing.

Mothman

Have just updated the temperature chart above with todays, max and mins.

Last night was a cold one

Paddy.1

Overall Irish Mean now 6.1c as of the 17th Feb. Clones data missing so assumes a figure of 5.3c, which is 0.1c higher than Mullingar. Mean now 1.0c above average. Danno's lead now taken over by Dolan Baker, who went for 6.1c in original forecast..
However, all to play for in the next 10 days. With temperatures expected to rise significantly from wenesday morning onwards, Danno looks like he could snatch back the trophy by end of the week..

Danno

Is there an award for who has held the lead for X amount of days in the month???

Mothman

Overall Irish mean now 5.9C as of 18th Feb. I expect it to drop another 0.1C today and then rise a little later in week.

nacho libre

Any sign of an arctic blast for the last four or five days of February?

Trogdor

Mothman wrote: »

Overall Irish mean now 5.9C as of 18th Feb. I expect it to drop another 0.1C today and then rise a little later in week.

Updated trend

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

Any sign of an arctic blast for the last four or five days of February?

Hard to tell Nacho, I would say that is more likely to happen in July to be honest..:cool: Beware of fine spells in spring I say..

Mothman

Overall Irish mean now 5.8C as of 19th Feb.

I continue to update rain and sun charts daily and are reflected in post #62

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Overall Irish mean now 5.8C as of 19th Feb.

I continue to update rain and sun charts daily and are reflected in post #62

A quick breakdown of the station means up to 19th:



Inland station averages returning to normal, with Dublin airport now -0.1c below the 61-90 feb mean; whilst coastal station remain around 1.0c above normal.

Brief summary of the rainfall distribution so far this Feb, up to yesterday.:


Not much change from last week, east remains drier than normal while heavy rain in the west early in the month has kept figures around normal so far.

Mothman

Overall Irish mean as of 20th Feb remains at 5.8C

Valentia and Malin Head figures not in and there is small chance that its just 5.7C.

Will rise from this day in

EDIT: Malin Head and Valentia data in, no change in mean

Mothman

21st Feb, overall mean now 5.9C

Valentia and Claremorris data not in, but the mean won't change.

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

21st Feb, overall mean now 5.9C

Valentia and Claremorris data not in, but the mean won't change.

Did up a deviation trend graph up to 21st. This assumes a rise of 0.3c at Valentia since yesterday while I used my own average up to midnight last of 5.4c for Claremorris until official data comes in. (Station within my horizon).


Overall Mean slowly rising again, as was expected. February 08 looking at this stage to come in mild, but not extraordinarily so.

Trogdor

Interesting Chart Paddy, here's updated overall mean temp trend.

Mothman

I've just updated the bottom graph. Look at the way the min has increased during past few days.

Mothman

Updated Irish mean as of 22nd Feb is 6.1C
Valentia data still missing, but mean wil not change

I reckon it may rise another 0.1C tomorrow and then not change much till months end.

Paddy.1

Overall Mean up to midnight 23rd stands just under 6.3c (6.29c to be pedantic:)). Valentia and Dublin Airport data missing (I would love to know the reason for this), so I assumed 9c for Valentia + 5.5c for Dublin, both figures may be updated by MM or Trogdor later.

Anyway, as I suspected earlier in the week, Danno now king of the hill again. It is looking like it will be a race betwenn Snowbie, Doland Baker and Mr Danno for the Crown of Triumph.


Here is Brayweather Forecast Graph:

Who will it be? Good luck to all three.
(that wasn't meant to be,
poetry)

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Overall Mean up to midnight 23rd stands just under 6.3c (6.29c to be pedantic:)). Valentia and Dublin Airport data missing (I would love to know the reason for this), so I assumed 9c for Valentia + 5.5c for Dublin, both figures may be updated by MM or Trogdor later.

My reckoning is Dublin AP 5.4C and Valentia 8.4C. This would make the mean 6.2C rounded.

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

My reckoning is Dublin AP 5.4C and Valentia 8.4C. This would make the mean 6.2C rounded.

You may well be right MM, I just gave the highest possible figure for both stations.I find it particulary difficult to estimate Valentia, but somewhere between your own guess and mine is quite likely. 6.2c certainly more valid, the 6.3c I gave above is just a rounded value (not sure how to get this feature knocked off in Excel.)

Mothman

Mean remains at 6.2C, but with values missing from Mullingar, Dublin AP and Valentia, it may be 6.3C

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Mean remains at 6.2C, but with values missing from Mullingar, Dublin AP and Valentia, it may be 6.3C

Updated figures just in MM from these stations. Good call on Valentia figure, you were spot on, whilst I over estimated it.

Overall mean still 6.2c so not much change.

Quick breakdown on main synoptic station means with deviations:



Overall mean deviation showing up as 1.2c while the actual figure is 1.16c. This error will be corrected in future graphs. Valentia has highest deviation from its mean, while Dublin and the South Midlands are comfortably close to average.

Breakdown of Station rainfall and averages up to midnight of the 24th:



Claremorris and Belmullet now over their respective average totals for Feb, whilst the midlands and more especially the east looking much drier than average up to this point. No doubt this will change over the last few days of the month with more unsettled conditions gradually taking over.

Trogdor

Updated overall temp trend

Paddy.1

Mean remains the same today (26th), with little change from yesterday's values at most stations. 6.2c overall.

With little variation expected with a tendency to rise slightly, looks at this stage that Danno will be forecaster of the month. Donald Baker has the 2nd highest chance so far.

Paddy.1

Mean remains at 6.2c up to midnight of the 26th. though rising. Actual figure is 6.29c, so just a slice away from 6.3c.

Birr and Casement figures missing, which may push mean a little higher. Trogdor or Mothman may have updates later.




Great trend graph MM. I am just wondering, is there a diurnal average associated with this? Might be interesting to compare it to the Averages we focas on.