February 2008 Temperature Competition

Trogdor

Those figures are in now and the mean is 6.3C(actual 6.323076923) although I had it at 6.3C for yesterday as well. I have excel set to get the everage and then round to 1 decimal place. So for the March competition, rounding or not?

Paddy.1

trogdor wrote: »

Those figures are in now and the mean is 6.3C(actual 6.323076923) although I had it at 6.3C for yesterday as well. I have excel set to get the everage and then round to 1 decimal place. So for the March competition, rounding or not?

Use it if you like, but you can adjust rounding principles in Excel, as the you use you and I did is just the default set up one. I have it changed to read true value within one decimal place. For example any value between 5.300000 and 5.399999 will read as 5.3, it won't change to 5.4 until 5.40000 has been reached. This is much more fair I think with regards competition. A value of 4.55c will read as 4.6c the default way which is false. I mean you wouldn't say someone who is 79 is actually 80.

Climate science even uses this default method, the supposed 0.6c rise in temp over the last 100 years is being sold to us as a 1.0c increase. That is 0.4c added on that has not even occurred!! :mad: (Don't get me started!!)

Anyway, I have table done up that will automatically adjust to correct rounded figure, will send them to you if ya so wish.

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Use it if you like, but you can adjust rounding principles in Excel, as the you use you and I did is just the default set up one. I have it changed to read true value within one decimal place. For example any value between 5.300000 and 5.399999 will read as 5.3, it won't change to 5.4 until 5.40000 has been reached. This is much more fair I think with regards competition. A value of 4.55c will read as 4.6c the default way which is false. I mean you wouldn't say someone who is 79 is actually 80.

Climate science even uses this default method, the supposed 0.6c rise in temp over the last 100 years is being sold to us as a 1.0c increase. That is 0.4c added on that has not even occurred!! :mad: (Don't get me started!!)

Anyway, I have table done up that will automatically adjust to correct rounded figure, will send them to you if ya so wish.

Yeh that'd be great. Just a question though, using your method would the 0.6C of warming not come out as just 0C

Mothman

Graphs updated in post 82

Re rounding,
If the actual answer came in at 5.39999, then I feel the person who suggested 5.40000 should get the honours being only 0.00001 away and not the person who suggested 5.30000 since this would be .09999 (or 9999 times more) from actual answer

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Graphs updated in post 82

Re rounding,
If the actual answer came in at 5.39999, then I feel the person who suggested 5.40000 should get the honours being only 0.00001 away and not the person who suggested 5.30000 since this would be .09999 (or 9999 times more) from actual answer

True, but it's still not 5.4..:p
Anyway, Overall Mean now 6.3c, no rise since yesterday. Will be suprising if it changes much from this in final figure. February 08 has not been a month of wild temps swings.

National rainfall total as of the 27th is 65% of a 100% normal, with Valentia being the wettest station and Dublin Airport being the driest. A marked east/west split this month.

ch750536

Standard rounding seems to make sense in our situation. Its not about what the number is, its about who is closest, that could be skewed by the round(floor) method you use.

Paddy.1

Well I really seem to be on my own in this!! and am willing to backdown.

The valid point was made above about a hypothical figure of 5.39999 being .9999 closer to 5.4 than 5.3000. My argumnent is that this is relative. The same could be said about standard rounding.

Standard rounding by default rounds upwards. In standard rounding a final figure of say 5.35001c will come in as 5.4c; while if the final figure was 5.35000c, a mere .000001 difference, the standard rounded value will show up as 5.3. an actual difference of 0.1c, all this variation within the spectrum of the 5.3c flat value.

So if someone picked 5.3c in competition, they would lose if the final figure was 5.350001 and win if this figure was .0000.1
lower. I fail to see the fairness in that, since this minute difference occurs within the spectrum of 5.3. While a .00001 value that changes the actual two numbers closest to the decimal, i.e from 5.3 to 5.4 seems to me more fair with regards competition.

However, I have no problem with those who use standard rounding, fire away. I have and will continue to use this myself along with flat value for comparison.

Paddy.1

Mean remains at 6.3c. Data from a number of stations missing, but 6.3c sounds a safe bet for now.

And there was me thinking that putting in 6.1c was too high....

Snowbie

So do i get any points or what?:p

Trogdor

Snowbie wrote: »

So do i get any points or what?:p

You'll have to consult the power to be on that one:p
data missing from 6 stations this morning but there seems to be a general rise so I'd say this years February mean is 6.4C.

nacho libre

Congratulations to Danno then.

Mothman

trogdor wrote: »

data missing from 6 stations this morning but there seems to be a general rise so I'd say this years February mean is 6.4C.

Yes 6.4C is what I think it will be. Data probably won't be in till Monday.

Paddy.1

Well while temp figures are being waited for, a quick sum up of provisional Met Eireann rainfall totals for each of the main stations for the month of February. Station averages and deviations included also: (note Dublin Airport value is approximation, could be higher or lower than figure showing here).



76%* of expected rainfall fell nationally this february, which makes February 2008 drier than normal overall. The drier than normal conditions in the east and south this month was balanced out by wetter than normal conditions in the North and West, with Belmullet coming in as the wettest station this month with 120.2mm (149.5%) of expected rainfall falling.

*provisional figure.

Snowbie

14.6mm rainfall i recorded for the whole month of which 3mm of that was on the 29th

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

14.6mm rainfall i recorded for the whole month of which 3mm of that was on the 29th

Yeah I reckon it would be around the same for the airport. Final figures still not in. But Danno's forecast looks to be spot on. I think this should be considered in the League Thread. Longfield, this is up to you!!

Mothman

14.7mm is what I have Dublin AP figure to be.

Paddy.1

Final Temp Met Eireann figures are in for February 08 except for Dublin Airport. So estimate used. Here is final chart:

Final Standard Rounded Value (S.R.V) comes in at 6.4c, which brings the overall mean for February to 1.3c above normal.

Here is the NOAA take on February 2008 Mean Temperature anomaly for Western Europe:


Any area shows up as white has an anomaly of less than -/+2.0c. Only the North of Ireland recorded a figure of +2.0c this month.

Edit: Congratulations Danno. You are the very first winner of this thread. Well done. Tell me, how is it looking for a white Christmas this year???